Most important game left?

[1SE]

Which one is most important? I'd say @UCONN because I think that game has the most upside potential for our seeding if any game left.

[wisblue]

As a cliche, I would say they are all important because that is literally true in a 4 team race that is likely to be decided by one game.

I like to use the word “pivotal” to describe the game that will have the single biggest impact. For that, I picked Xavier because it’s a home game and a chance to ensure that no conference team will sweep MU.

If MU wins that one, they could lose the two toughest road games and still get a share of the conference title. They would  also be in position to get no worse than a tie for the title by winning just one of those two games and avoiding any losses to the bottom feeders.

Lose that game, and their chances of getting even a share of the conference title drop significantly, and the possibility of dropping to fourth place becomes very real.

[Scoop Snoop]

As a cliche, I would say they are all important because that is literally true in a 4 team race that is likely to be decided by one game.

I like to use the word “pivotal” to describe the game that will have the single biggest impact. For that, I picked Xavier because it’s a home game and a chance to ensure that no conference team will sweep MU.

If MU wins that one, they could lose the two toughest road games and still get a share of the conference title. They would  also be in position to get no worse than a tie for the title by winning just one of those two games and avoiding any losses to the bottom feeders.

Lose that game, and their chances of getting even a share of the conference title drop significantly, and the possibility of dropping to fourth place becomes very real.

Good points, but I chose the Xavier game for a different reason- potential effect on our seeding for the Big Dance. As much as I would love to see us get at least a share of the BE regular season title, I am far more interested in our chances to win two rounds in the NCAA and be in the Sweet Sixteen. Nationally, no one cares who won the regular season conference titles after the end of the season, but how you did in the Big Dance? They remember a Sweet Sixteen team, or better yet of course, higher level, and we got the attention of bball people, especially high level recruits.

[MuggsyB]

Which one is most important? I'd say @UCONN because I think that game has the most upside potential for our seeding if any game left.

1SE,

As far as I understand it, the NET is just one component towards NCAA tournament seeding.  Obviously all three games are vitally important but I would probably go with XU because of conference standings, it being on our home floor, and the fact that we haven't beaten them.  Now, the Creighton game will be the most difficult.  Personally I think UCONN has not played great hoops most of the BEast season. We need to take them out Tues and absolutely have the tools to do so. 

[Scoop Snoop]

1SE,

As far as I understand it, the NET is just one component towards NCAA tournament seeding.  Obviously all three games are vitally important but I would probably go with XU because of conference standings, it being on our home floor, and the fact that we haven't beaten them.  Now, the Creighton game will be the most difficult.  Personally I think UCONN has not played great hoops most of the BEast season. We need to take them out Tues and absolutely have the tools to do so.

My understanding is that NET is the primary one, but I could be wrong. And not only would a win vs. X give us a boost, but a home court loss could tip the scales against us come Selection Sunday. I get the desire to be regular season champs or at least get a share of the title, but as I posted above, my focus is on the Big Dance, not being 1st in the BE.

[MuggsyB]

My understanding is that NET is the primary one, but I could be wrong. And not only would a win vs. X give us a boost, but a home court loss could tip the scales against us come Selection Sunday. I get the desire to be regular season champs or at least get a share of the title, but as I posted above, my focus is on the Big Dance, not being 1st in the BE.

Well your point is well taken.  Losing to X at Fiserv would hurt our metrics the most and possibly seeding. 

[wisblue]

I also care about NCAA seeding, but my attitude about it in this context is that no one game is going to make that much difference. I think MU’s seeding is going to be determined largely by how many more games they win and lose, not which games they win or lose.

The other thing about NCAA seeding and making the second weekend is that the marginal value of moving a spot or two on the seed list is pretty minimal. Matchups become much more important than numbers.. At this point, I think MU is going to end up with a seed between 3 and 5 as long as they don’t lose more than 3 games. Rising as high as a 2 would likely require winning out plus one good win in the conference tournament.

[Scoop Snoop]

I also care about NCAA seeding, but my attitude about it in this context is that no one game is going to make that much difference. I think MU’s seeding is going to be determined largely by how many more games they win and lose, not which games they win or lose.

The other thing about NCAA seeding and making the second weekend is that the marginal value of moving a spot or two on the seed list is pretty minimal. Matchups become much more important than numbers.. At this point, I think MU is going to end up with a seed between 3 and 5 as long as they don’t lose more than 3 games. Rising as high as a 2 would likely require winning out plus one good win in the conference tournament.

Question for the stat boys- is it true that the conference champ games, unless there is an unexpected winner who gets an automatic invite (e.g. GT in '21), are largely ignored by the Selection Committee? Supposedly they already have enough data and do not want to refigure the brackets extensively. I have read that and am interested if it is true. If so, do the semi finals meet the same fate?

[wisblue]

Question for the stat boys- is it true that the conference champ games, unless there is an unexpected winner who gets an automatic invite (e.g. GT in '21), are largely ignored by the Selection Committee? Supposedly they already have enough data and do not want to refigure the brackets extensively. I have read that and am interested if it is true. If so, do the semi finals meet the same fate?

I’m not a stat boy, but my observation is that this is true. There is so much that goes into setting the bracket including geography and avoiding certain potential matchups in the early rounds, that the vast majority is done well before the Selection Show comes on.

At most, the conference tournament games count no more than if the same game were played on a neutral court during the season. Fans tend to be more affected by recency bias and imagine their team moving up a whole seed line with each conference tournament game they win. I have never observed it to work that way. I think the conference tournament games are much more important for true bubble teams for whom a Quad A win or two can vault them above the rabble, even if they don’t claim the auto bid.

[brewcity77]

For me, X at home. Neither the UConn nor Creighton games will hurt the resume much. Beating X means no one sweeps us, putting us in a good tiebreaker position. And while it would be nice to get the UConn road game (since X already got that) they also lost the DePaul road game that we already got. Beat X and we probably at least share the title. They all matter, but that one matters a little bit more.

[CountryRoads]

Of the X, @UCONN, and @Creighton games, I’d say it’s X. Though, that’s with the big assumption that MU takes care of business in the other 4 games.

I’ll group them in this order as far as importance:

1. 4 games against teams we should beat (not individually but winning all 4)
2. X
3. Creighton/UCONN

(These are all almost equal to me however)

[Uncle Rico]

It’s Xavier because they’re the best coached team outside Marquette.  Love watching them play. 

[bilsu]

I wanted to vote for all of the choices.

[MU82]

Of the X, @UCONN, and @Creighton games, I’d say it’s X. Though, that’s with the big assumption that MU takes care of business in the other 4 games.

I’ll group them in this order as far as importance:

1. 4 games against teams we should beat (not individually but winning all 4)
2. X
3. Creighton/UCONN

(These are all almost equal to me however)

I think I'm here with you.

I'm a bazillion miles from being an expert on how such-and-such affects NET, but it just feels to me like a horrible loss would be more badderer than a win in one of our three tough games would be gooderer.

I'm sure brew, TAMU or others will happily tell me if I'm wrong or right about that.

[bilsu]

I voted for UConn, because it is the next game.
Win out we win conference. This does not happen without beating UConn.
Beat Xavier and lose only one other game we at least tie for conference title. I am more worried about Creighton than I am UConn.
My ranking of the last 7 games from toughest to easiest is.
1. at Creighton
2. Xavier
3. at UConn
4. I do not care; we should win all four.

[We R Final Four]

Its X…..but not for the reason you provided.

Loss @ UCONN and CU and win X at home and win the others we will be just fine.

[Jay Bee]

For me, X at home. Neither the UConn nor Creighton games will hurt the resume much. Beating X means no one sweeps us, putting us in a good tiebreaker position. And while it would be nice to get the UConn road game (since X already got that) they also lost the DePaul road game that we already got. Beat X and we probably at least share the title. They all matter, but that one matters a little bit more.

Maybe not important for all, but looking at BEast tourney seeding… I have this weird feeling X and us go to a third tiebreaker of Vs UCONN and they beat us there if we lose Tuesday. So we play at night instead of noon ET on Thurs of the tourney

[Carl]

Question for the stat boys- is it true that the conference champ games, unless there is an unexpected winner who gets an automatic invite (e.g. GT in '21), are largely ignored by the Selection Committee? Supposedly they already have enough data and do not want to refigure the brackets extensively. I have read that and am interested if it is true. If so, do the semi finals meet the same fate?

From what I’ve heard from a former member of the selection committee, there are multiple contingent brackets prepared on selection Sunday. Different championship game results are accounted for. In the end, they go with the one most closely reflecting those results.

 Another interesting procedural anecdote, as they go through each individual team to discuss its resume and seed worthiness, if the AD of that particular school happens to be on the committee, he exudes himself from the room while his team is discussed. It’d be interesting to be a fly on the wall. I think they should film it and use it as content throughout the tourney/ game previews/ etc

[forgetful]

I'm going to go none of the above, and how with the National Championship Game. Because

1. It means we made it to the NCAA championship.
2. We'd be playing for a national championship.

[tower912]

Xavier.  Don't want to lose to another top team at home.

[MU82]

I'm going to go none of the above, and how with the National Championship Game. Because

1. It means we made it to the NCAA championship.
2. We'd be playing for a national championship.

Nice!