MU Admissions Update for 2023 and Beyond

[Macallan 18]

The University Academic Senate meet earlier this week and there was an admissions update.

Applicants were notified of acceptance on December 20th, May 1st is deposit day nationally.

Undergraduate Students:

• Goal is 1,926 for freshman class. More than 13,000 applications received.
• Admitted students up 1.4% over same time last year.
• Campus visits are #1 predictor of acceptances and are up 18% over last year. 

Developing projections for high school grads going forward, admissions is working with 3 datasets WICHE, HEDI, RNL.

Some take aways from the data: 

• IL - Slow decline began in 2019, decline will accelerate in 2026 with an 11% decline by 2030. 
• WI - Peak will be in 2026, then a rapid decline.
• MN - Will also peak in 2026, then decline.
• By 2030, the undergraduate enrollment projection for domestic and international students is 1,851.

Surveys of prospective students have revealed: 

• Cost - Initial high sticker price is causing them to not apply to some schools. 
• Some are questioning the value of higher education and don't value it as high as previous classes.
• Federal and Pell grants are subsidizing smaller proportion of tuition, putting more of the cost burden on students and families.
• "Lost admits" are often going to state institutions. Often universities with lower prices, and higher rankings.

 

[Dr. Blackheart]

So, when are we adding back football to help enrollment?

[WarriorFan]

My son will be a frosh in 2023-4.  Applied to business but got admitted to arts & crafts.  MU screwed that up and my $$$ (and my son) will go elsewhere.

[warriorchick]

My son will be a frosh in 2023-4.  Applied to business but got admitted to arts & crafts.  MU screwed that up and my $$$ (and my son) will go elsewhere.

You're blaming Marquette because your son didn't qualify for the Business School?

You know, he can always transfer in later if his grades are good enough. If he takes the right courses, he will even graduate on time.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The “questioning the value of higher education” statement always occurs in a hot job market.

[wadesworld]

My son will be a frosh in 2023-4.  Applied to business but got admitted to arts & crafts.  MU screwed that up and my $$$ (and my son) will go elsewhere.

Sorry to hear that. Glad he’ll be doing something more important than arts and crafts.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Yeah people who label the liberal arts core “arts and crafts” are probably best going elsewhere.

[mu_hilltopper]

Is my memory wrong .. When I went to MU, (late 80s) I can't recall being admitted to a school.  You got into MU, and you started picking classes, hopefully in line with whatever major you were interested in.

Did that change?

.. And with MU's 86% acceptance rate .. do they really reject people going to certain "schools"?  Hard to fathom, especially for Business, with lots of capacity.

[PorkysButthole]

Great Info Macallan!  Thx for posting.

Porky has a few questions and comments.

More than 13,000 Applications received.   Do you know how many more?  Last year MU had just south of 16,000.....15,883 to be exact.   More than 13K implies less than 14K so if you split the difference and estimate they had 13,500 applicants that would be a 16% decline from previous cycle which is not good.

If they admitted 1.4% more applicants than last year with an already very high 86% acceptance rate that's pretty bad optics in Porky's humble opinion.  That issue has been debated ad-nauseum on this board and while Porky understands many folks on here don't think it matters and even Porky doesn't think it should in theory, in the real world it does.  Being a coastie, Porky is all too aware that elitism is alive and well and while that's not a stat that should matter, it still does to a hell of a lot of folks in Porky's neck of the woods, and MU absolutely loses some students because of it.

Campus Visits are #1 predictor of acceptance?   Really???   Presumably MU isn't deciding who to admit based on who visited campus, so Porky hopes you meant to say #1 predictor of deposits.

The predicted declines in WI, IL and MN are cause for concern.   MU needs to more aggressively recruit outside of the Midwest, particularly the Northeast and So Cal, where there is more wealth concentration and students' parents are able to pay a higher percentage of the sticker price since they don't qualify for need based aid.  Unfortunately MU mostly recruits at Catholic High schools in Porky's region which is a HUGE mistake.  If anything they should ignore Catholic high schools and focus exclusively on the great public high schools in the NE which 95% of the market attends.  To those that say such a strategy is anathema to MU's mission, Porky couldn't disagree more and feels very strongly that if MU had more of these kinds of students from wealthier families, they would presumably have more $$ to execute their mission and provide more meaningful financial aid to minority and first generation students that MU is recruiting more and more of each year.   Compared to Private universities in the Northeast, MU is a bargain but a lot of folks there care about rankings and acceptance rates so perhaps they think MU isn't up to snuff on those metrics despite the cost advantages and that's why MU underperforms in that region?  Porky Not sure.

Questioning the value of higher education is ludicrous.

For those lost admits that are going to less expensive state schools with higher rankings, Porky was recently introduced to a current MU Junior from an MKE suburb who was initially accepted to MU out of high school, but passed on MU and decided to go to another Midwestern state school (not Madison) due to MU's high cost, high acceptance rate, and lower ranking in that order.  She told Porky the high acceptance rate in particular was a major turn off.  She didn't have a great experience her Freshman year, and decided to transfer to MU, where she's much happier and thinks the education is better and more personal.  Porky is guessing she isn't the only like this so perhaps MU should track these transfers and collect data on where they came from.   A school like MU isn't going to be higher ranked than most Big 10 /12 schools due to it's undergrad focus and less research activity.   That's ok.  Doesn't mean the education or student experience is inferior and in many cases actually better.  MU probably shouldn't even be in the same category as those places but that's an argument for another day.

MU talks a big a game about being a "National University" but are they really?  Porky thinks not, despite being as proud an MU Alum as they come.  MU needs to place more emphasis on geographic diversity to thrive.  Wash U in STL actually brags on their website about the fact that over 70% of their undergrads come from at least 500 miles away to attend there!  Porky understands that MU is not in the same class as Wash U, and MU will never be that kind of school, but if they could bring the 75%  WI / IL figure down to 60% with 15% more students from everywhere else, that is a reasonable goal.   See recent MU Wire article below:

https://marquettewire.org/4083166/opinion/dysart-marquette-must-geographically-diversify/

[4everwarriors]

Porky knows college admissions, aina?

[Uncle Rico]

Porky knows college admissions, aina?

St. Louis doesn’t have any crime, though

[cheebs09]

Is my memory wrong .. When I went to MU, (late 80s) I can't recall being admitted to a school.  You got into MU, and you started picking classes, hopefully in line with whatever major you were interested in.

Did that change?

.. And with MU's 86% acceptance rate .. do they really reject people going to certain "schools"?  Hard to fathom, especially for Business, with lots of capacity.

In 2007, I think you were directly admitted to schools. One of the reasons I chose MU.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Is my memory wrong .. When I went to MU, (late 80s) I can't recall being admitted to a school.  You got into MU, and you started picking classes, hopefully in line with whatever major you were interested in.

Did that change?

.. And with MU's 86% acceptance rate .. do they really reject people going to certain "schools"?  Hard to fathom, especially for Business, with lots of capacity.

You were admitted direct to a school in the 1980s.  I was told to apply direct to engineering which I got into.  Was told if I did not get in would probably be offered another college.

[dgies9156]

I was directly admitted to my college of choice in the 1970s.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Great Info Macallan!  Thx for posting.

Porky has a few questions and comments.

More than 13,000 Applications received.   Do you know how many more?  Last year MU had just south of 16,000.....15,883 to be exact.   More than 13K implies less than 14K so if you split the difference and estimate they had 13,500 applicants that would be a 16% decline from previous cycle which is not good.

If they admitted 1.4% more applicants than last year with an already very high 86% acceptance rate that's pretty bad optics in Porky's humble opinion.  That issue has been debated ad-nauseum on this board and while Porky understands many folks on here don't think it matters and even Porky doesn't think it should in theory, in the real world it does.  Being a coastie, Porky is all too aware that elitism is alive and well and while that's not a stat that should matter, it still does to a hell of a lot of folks in Porky's neck of the woods, and MU absolutely loses some students because of it.

Campus Visits are #1 predictor of acceptance?   Really???   Presumably MU isn't deciding who to admit based on who visited campus, so Porky hopes you meant to say #1 predictor of deposits.

The predicted declines in WI, IL and MN are cause for concern.   MU needs to more aggressively recruit outside of the Midwest, particularly the Northeast and So Cal, where there is more wealth concentration and students' parents are able to pay a higher percentage of the sticker price since they don't qualify for need based aid.  Unfortunately MU mostly recruits at Catholic High schools in Porky's region which is a HUGE mistake.  If anything they should ignore Catholic high schools and focus exclusively on the great public high schools in the NE which 95% of the market attends.  To those that say such a strategy is anathema to MU's mission, Porky couldn't disagree more and feels very strongly that if MU had more of these kinds of students from wealthier families, they would presumably have more $$ to execute their mission and provide more meaningful financial aid to minority and first generation students that MU is recruiting more and more of each year.   Compared to Private universities in the Northeast, MU is a bargain but a lot of folks there care about rankings and acceptance rates so perhaps they think MU isn't up to snuff on those metrics despite the cost advantages and that's why MU underperforms in that region?  Porky Not sure.

Questioning the value of higher education is ludicrous.

For those lost admits that are going to less expensive state schools with higher rankings, Porky was recently introduced to a current MU Junior from an MKE suburb who was initially accepted to MU out of high school, but passed on MU and decided to go to another Midwestern state school (not Madison) due to MU's high cost, high acceptance rate, and lower ranking in that order.  She told Porky the high acceptance rate in particular was a major turn off.  She didn't have a great experience her Freshman year, and decided to transfer to MU, where she's much happier and thinks the education is better and more personal.  Porky is guessing she isn't the only like this so perhaps MU should track these transfers and collect data on where they came from.   A school like MU isn't going to be higher ranked than most Big 10 /12 schools due to it's undergrad focus and less research activity.   That's ok.  Doesn't mean the education or student experience is inferior and in many cases actually better.  MU probably shouldn't even be in the same category as those places but that's an argument for another day.

MU talks a big a game about being a "National University" but are they really?  Porky thinks not, despite being as proud an MU Alum as they come.  MU needs to place more emphasis on geographic diversity to thrive.  Wash U in STL actually brags on their website about the fact that over 70% of their undergrads come from at least 500 miles away to attend there!  Porky understands that MU is not in the same class as Wash U, and MU will never be that kind of school, but if they could bring the 75%  WI / IL figure down to 60% with 15% more students from everywhere else, that is a reasonable goal.   See recent MU Wire article below:

https://marquettewire.org/4083166/opinion/dysart-marquette-must-geographically-diversify/

Oh God...you're back to thinking that acceptance rate really matters for something.  And that Marquette should be recruiting public schools in the northeast. Why should they waste their recruiting resources on such a low yield area?

Marquette really is just fine. A smaller class focused on high revenue majors like business, engineering and nursing is a strong strategic enrollment play.

[Sir Lawrence]

I was directly admitted to my college of choice in the 1970s.

Really?  What college was that?  Not challenging just wondering.  Cuz I applied to MU.  Didn’t have a choice of college that I recall.  But I’m old and memory issues prevail. 

[dgies9156]

Brother Porky made some interesting observations that should not be glossed over. While I won't argue change is hard -- and I'm not an Admissions Officer so I don't have experience -- change is coming.

1) Illinois and particularly the Chicago suburbs is Marquette's second largest market after Wisconsin. Take a good hard look at what's happening in Illinois and then tell me we don't need change. The economy is a mess, corporations are pulling out for greener pastures (i.e., Caterpillar, Boeing, Citadel, Allstate is severely reducing its footprint, Takada etc) and the population is falling. The corporate headquarters that Illinois once could count on (including banks) are gone. Politically, the state hasn't done an especially good job of dealing with its problems, which may well cause an ever bigger flight in the years ahead.

I can't speak to population projections for Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Iowa but these states are aging and most likel;y not to be in a position to attract significant new economic investment.

2) Catholic Church Attendance. Compare the number of faithful who attend Mass today to as recently as 10 years ago and you'll see the numbers are way down. Without commitment to the faith, the Catholic primary and secondary education system becomes at risk. With few faithful and fewer attendees at Catholic schools comes fewer Catholic school candidates for Marquette.

3) Costs. This is more than just MU's costs, which I acknowledge are lower than the stated rate for most students. When one combines the cost of a private high school with a private university, there often is a choice between private high school and private universities.

Ultimately, I'd argue Marquette should focus on whatever works. I'd think Texas, Tennessee, So Cal and maybe Arizona would work, but the folks on campus know better than me. What I do know is the trends do not bode well for the University's traditional markets.

Brother Lawrence: I was admitted to the College of Journalism in the mid-1970s.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The population in the Chicago metro is not falling dgeis. Its the third largest metro area in the country and is 100 miles south of campus. Every major midwestern university focuses on it, and without a significant local public university, it makes perfect sense to do so.

[Sir Lawrence]

Good stuff.  Still don’t recall admission to a specific college but journalism wasn’t on my radar. 

Your third point is the better argument IMO.

[dgies9156]

The population in the Chicago metro is not falling dgies. Its the third largest metro area in the country and is 100 miles south of campus. Every major midwestern university focuses on it, and without a significant local public university, it makes perfect sense to do so.

First off, Illinois did shrink and at best, the only reason Chicago didn't was in-migration of people who arguably may not be there legally.  The city itself is barely at 2.9 million people, down from 3.6 million in 1950. The metro area has been stagnant for two decades, particularly when compared to national growth rates.

Don't get me started on Census 2020 either. While my own experience may have been anecdotal, the inability of an Illinois municipality to take no for an answer suggests the census probably has a significant level of inflation.

Second, Marquette should recruit in Illinois. However, the time will come where it will be a lot tougher to recruit in Chicago because the competition will stay the same but economic and demographic change will make the supply considerably smaller.

Third, as far as Chicago being the nation's third largest city, how long will it be before Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth or some other high-growth metropolis passes it? Even the thought of this pains me as I'm a deep Chicago loyalist, having lived in the area for 44 years, the facts are there. Chicago and Illinois are not where people go to start or grow business and industry.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Well, I guess if you want to argue against actual quantifiable numbers and bring up nonsense conspiracies to justify your take, I guess you can do so.  But the growth in Chicagoland is happening in the suburbs. And there are plenty of people there to base a solid recruiting base.

And sure DFW is likely to surpass Chicago at some point. But WTF cares? Marquette is going to have enough of a presence in a significant market to justify its focus there for a generation or more. Planning beyond that isn't worth the time.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22956/chicago/population

So...how is the Chicago metro are shrinking?

[WarriorFan]

You're blaming Marquette because your son didn't qualify for the Business School?

You know, he can always transfer in later if his grades are good enough. If he takes the right courses, he will even graduate on time.

Not blaming.  He would be well above the "average" GPA and SAT score.  To put it into the overall perspective, the universities are simply out for maximum revenue.  There are several schemes we are experiencing:
- admit but not into the school of choice... the University is hoping for an extra year of tuition due to transferring in to the school of choice
- Admit out of state students.  State schools where my son is in the bottom half of applicants are admitting him because we would need to pay out of state tuition.  (several examples already - the good part is his "stretch" school(s) are coming through
- No direct admission to colleges like business.  These schools are clearly and blatantly trying to keep students 5+ years.

I further suspect that when the schools see income levels well above the financial aid threshold they behave differently.

It was disappointing for us to see MU playing one of these games.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Did he talk to his admissions rep? Because if he is a low need student with good grades, and he says he is going to have to go elsewhere without the direct admit, they may be able to do something.

Cause no school is playing financial games like you think they are with low need children of alumni. They may just not have room.

[MUEng92]

The College of Engineering was direct admit back in the late 1980’s and I assume is now as well.  Of course our tuition was higher than other programs as well.