Bracketology Thread 2023

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Yes. Q1 wins and Q3/4 losses matter. Q2-4 wins and Q1 losses don't matter. So schedule 13 Q1 road non con games, win a few, and you're golden. Seems that'd help the non con and overall SOS and net wins and losses. There's very little downside given what is valued.

There's a ton down$ide, just not for your NCAA resume...provided you can win enough.

[DavidBoone2inchesTaller]

Those 15 seeds make me nervous.

Don't get too nervous. That #2 vs #15 upset thing is just hype to get people to watch those games.

All-time since 1985, the #2 seeds are 138-10 (.932 winning pct.) against the #15 seeds.

The #3 seeds are 126-22 (.851 winning pct.) against the #14 seeds.

So historically, in the first round, being a #2 seed is much better than a #3 seed.

In fact, the #2 seeds have a better record than the #3's in every round of the tournament, save for the Final Four round.

For analysis sake, let's assume MU wins its first game of the tournament. Now, what does this mean as a #2 seed or as a #3 seed?

#2 SEED SCENARIO
Assuming MU is a #2 seed and win its first round game, it would then play the #7 or #10 seed in the second round. In the second round, the #2 seed is 110-48 (.696 winning pct.) historically. Furthermore, in the second round the #7 seed is 42-68 (.382 pct.) and  the#10 seed is 30-48 (.385 pct.).

#3 SEED SCENARIO
If MU is a #3 seed and wins its first round game, MU would then play the #6 or #11 seed in the second round. In the second round, the #3 seed is 93-53 (.637 pct.). Furthermore, in the second round the #6 seed is 53-58 (.478 pct.) and #11 is 36-41 (.468 pct.).

So, historically being a #2 seed in much better than being a #3 seed in the first and second round. The #2 seed has also proven statistically to give a team an easier path to the Sweet Sixteen. However, there is a statistical outlier that exists in the Sweet Sixteen for the #2 seed that needs to be discussed.

AN OUTLIER IN THE SWEET SIXTEEN
Keep in mind, if Marquette is a #2 and "if" they win their first 2 games, there is a possibility that MU could play a #6 seed in the regional semifinal (Sweet Sixteen). When the #6 seed is in the Sweet Sixteen round it is an amazing 15-20 (.429 pct.) all-time. This outlier is one of the historical statistical outliers.

Although MU, as a #2 or #3 seed, would not play a #4 or #5 in the Sweet Sixteen, the Sweet Sixteen records of these two seeds prove this statistical oddity of the #6 seed's winning percentage in that round.

In the Sweet Sixteen the #4 seed is only 22-48 and the #5 seed is only 10-40. These records equal winning percentages of .314 and .200, respectively. Amazingly, much lower than the .430 winning percentage of the #6 seed in the Sweet Sixteen. So, it is fair to say that when the #6 seed gets into the Sweet Sixteen it has proven to be a very dangerous team in that round.

FURTHER EVIDENCE OF THE SWEET SIXTEEN OUTLIER
Note that the #3 seed is 37-40 (.480 pct.) in Sweet Sixteen.

If MU is a #3 seed and win its first two games it would play either the #2, #7, #10, or #15 in the Sweet Sixteen. Those four seeds have a .720, .357, .375, and .333 winning percentage, respectively, in that round. As you can see, the #7, #10, & #15 have no where near the winning percentage of the #6 seed in the Sweet Sixteen. Of those seeds, only the #2 as expected has a better winning percentage than the #6 seed in the Sweet Sixteen round, but amazingly only by .050 pct.

THE ULTIMATE VERDICT: A #2 OR #3 SEED?
Having said all of this and regardless of the "6 Seed Outlier", I would prefer Marquette to be seeded as a #2. The #15 vs. #2 seed "upset" is proven to be a fallacy and the road for Marquette to the Sweet Sixteen is much easier as a #2. Plus, their geographical placement should be much better as a #2 seed.

I understand that as a #2 seed, the "#6 Seed Outlier" may come into play for Marquette in the Sweet Sixteen and I'm okay with that. This team needs to have some experience winning games in the NCAA tournament and being a #2 should create a nice path for this MU team develop that experience and get a Sweet Sixteen birth. After that, anything is possible for this year's team.

Next year I see this same MU team as a true National Title contender and anything less than a Final Four birth would be a disappointment. This season I'm looking forward to this team making its mark. How far it goes will come down to match-up and experience factors in this tournament.

A #2 seed this year can open the door to something very special this season and next season.

[DoctorV]

Great post, glad to have ya here

[MarquetteMike1977]

Today Joe Lunardi ESPN has Marquette as a #2 Seed playing Colgate in Columbus with Northwestern as the #7 Seed

[BM1090]

Today Joe Lunardi ESPN has Marquette as a #2 Seed playing Colgate in Columbus with Northwestern as the #7 Seed

Colgate as a 15 would be pretty ridiculous, but I like the rest of that draw.

[LloydsLegs]

I love everything about that projection

[MuggsyB]

Colgate as a 15 would be pretty ridiculous, but I like the rest of that draw.

I expect Colgate to be a #14. 

[Viper]

DeCourcey also has MU a 2.

[wisblue]

I love everything about that projection

That part would be OK, though I also think Colgate might be a 14 given some of the winners in the lower conference tournaments.

What I don't like about Lunardi's bracket is that he has Baylor as the 3 seed in that region.

Yes, I know MU destroyed Baylor in December, and I'm not "scared" of them. But, because of MU's unique style I'd rather see them play someone who hasn't seen them before.

[Scoop Snoop]

That part would be OK, though I also think Colgate might be a 14 given some of the winners in the lower conference tournaments.

What I don't like about Lunardi's bracket is that he has Baylor as the 3 seed in that region.

Yes, I know MU destroyed Baylor in December, and I'm not "scared" of them. But, because of MU's unique style I'd rather see them play someone who hasn't seen them before.

Very good point. Also, Baylor would be very motivated to exact revenge for being embarrassed in Milwaukee.

[MU82]

Very good point. Also, Baylor would be very motivated to exact revenge for being embarrassed in Milwaukee.

Although wisblue's point definitely has merit, I'd happily play Baylor again. No matter your seed, you're gonna have to play good teams in the second weekend. We talk a lot about wanting to avoid physical teams with multiple big men ... and Baylor fits the bill. We match up well with them.

As far as Baylor being extra motivated ... meh. As is the case with every team, both Baylor and Marquette would be plenty motivated to advance -- that's what it's all about in March.

Besides, Shaka also would have plenty of additional motivational points in his quiver: "Sure we beat Baylor, but everybody thinks it was a fluke." Hell, Baylor probably would be favored, giving Shaka more "disrespect" ammo. Again, as if a team at that stage of the tournament should even need such motivation.

[CountryRoads]

Although wisblue's point definitely has merit, I'd happily play Baylor again. No matter your seed, you're gonna have to play good teams in the second weekend. We talk a lot about wanting to avoid physical teams with multiple big men ... and Baylor fits the bill. We match up well with them.

As far as Baylor being extra motivated ... meh. As is the case with every team, both Baylor and Marquette would be plenty motivated to advance -- that's what it's all about in March.

Besides, Shaka also would have plenty of additional motivational points in his quiver: "Sure we beat Baylor, but everybody thinks it was a fluke." Hell, Baylor probably would be favored, giving Shaka more "disrespect" ammo. Again, as if a team at that stage of the tournament should even need such motivation.

Baylor was pounded by Iowa State on 12/31.

Baylor got really motivated to get revenge on ISU on 03/04. Baylor got pounded again...

Then Baylor got really, really motivated to beat them again on 03/09. They lost again...

[Scoop Snoop]

Baylor was pounded by Iowa State on 12/31.

Baylor got really motivated to get revenge on ISU on 03/04. Baylor got pounded again...

Then Baylor got really, really motivated to beat them again on 03/09. They lost again...

I like this narrative. Scratch what I said in this thread about Baylor's revenge factor.

[wadesworld]

I'd take my chances against Baylor.  But they were missing their best big when we played them in Milwaukee.  He still doesn't look like he did in the past since returning from the ACL tear, but he makes a difference for them.

[IrwinFletcher]

https://statsbywill.substack.com/p/a-selection-sunday-guide-for-everyone

Worth a read here.  Goes into the weeds a bit about where teams are placed in the seed line as well as geographically.  Keep this in mind when our name is called.

[GoldenEagles03]

Field was selected (very) late last night. Spent this morning scrubbing the seed list, with contingencies on placement involving scenarios for today's five games. Momentarily, we will start bracketing. We'll have to do several of them, as usual.

Marquette is going to be a 2.

[dgies9156]

Gang, I'll be elated if we're a "2" and even hope we're a "1" somewhere (which I admit won't happen).

But I don't really care who we play because we're going to have to play the best to be the best. Bring 'em on. We have shown we can play with anyone, anywhere. Just ask UConn, Creighton, Baylor, Villanova and others. When we play them is less important than when we beat them!

F**k 'em!!!!!

[WarriorFan]

I always expect the selection committee to come up with some weird stuff to enhance the 'story' such as playing against former coaches or non-conference rivals.  In this year's selection, I'd look for MU to end up in a bracket with Baylor as the 3 and Purdue as the 1.  That would be maximum "story".  Would also be unsurprised if PC is the 10 in the same bracket. 

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I always expect the selection committee to come up with some weird stuff to enhance the 'story' such as playing against former coaches or non-conference rivals.  In this year's selection, I'd look for MU to end up in a bracket with Baylor as the 3 and Purdue as the 1.  That would be maximum "story".  Would also be unsurprised if PC is the 10 in the same bracket.

I thought they attempt to not match teams that have played unless unavoidable

[GoldenEagles03]

I thought they attempt to not match teams that have played unless unavoidable

I believe they try and also part of being a protected seed involves not getting a conference team in the 2nd round so PC shouldn't be slotted with MU if their seeds align to play in the 2nd round.

[MuggsyB]

MU is now #8 (2 line) on Bracket Matrix.

[MU82]

I'd take my chances against Baylor.  But they were missing their best big when we played them in Milwaukee.  He still doesn't look like he did in the past since returning from the ACL tear, but he makes a difference for them.

Thanks for that reminder, wades.

Baylor was pounded by Iowa State on 12/31.

Baylor got really motivated to get revenge on ISU on 03/04. Baylor got pounded again...

Then Baylor got really, really motivated to beat them again on 03/09. They lost again...

Exactly.

This time of year, you should be motivated by the chance to advance in the NCAA tournament and pursue a championship. Period.

[panda]

Marquette up to 2 on bracket matrix. Your move ncaa

[CountryRoads]

Marquette up to 2 on bracket matrix. Your move ncaa

MU is a 2 seed lock...unless the committee stops counting games after a certain point at which point they would need to admit. 

Considering MU was one spot ahead of Gonzaga in the reveal, they have no argument to have passed us.

Baylor has zero argument either. They've lost 4 times since the reveal. As far as Q1 wins goes, it could very easily be Baylor with 9 and us with 8 as there are some on the fringe. We also are ranked higher in NET and beat them by 26.

I don't think it's all that close if all games are counted.

[wisblue]

My prediction for seeding and placement of the top 16 teams:

South (Louisville)- Alabama, UCLA, Baylor, UConn
West (Las Vegas- Houston, Texas, Gonzaga, Virginia
Midwest (Kansas City)- Kansas, Arizona, Tennessee, Xavier
East (New York)- Purdue, Marquette, Kansas State, Duke

I think I complied with the conference affiliation and geography principles, but the NYC region might violate the standard for competitive balance in the regions if those teams are where I had them on the seed list. That could be addressed by flipping Baylor and Kansas State.