Bracketology Thread 2023

[panda]

Opened FAU -1.5. Lots of $$ on UAB

Makes sense. Always smart to bet on the better team

[FairWeatherEagle]

Here are 4 different questions on Baylor and MU:
*Who will the committee seed higher?
*Who would I seed higher based on data, metrics, etc?
*Who do I think is better?
*If they played, who would win?

The first question will be answered tomorrow.

The second is answered by scoopers in this thread fed by their own ego concerning how much they think they know over the next guy.

The third is subjective and clouded a bit by our fanboy-itis...which is fine. A little of Question 2 gets in as well.

The fourth....which I put most stock it....well we have an answer, don't we.

26 points!

[NickelDimer]

Committee member on CBS says they've already "conditionally" seeded 1-8. I doubt much is changing

[mugrad_89]

Committee member on CBS says they've already "conditionally" seeded 1-8. I doubt much is changing

Maybe conditionally means depending on the BET championship game?

[panda]

Here are 4 different questions on Baylor and MU:
*Who will the committee seed higher?
*Who would I seed higher based on data, metrics, etc?
*Who do I think is better?
*If they played, who would win?

The first question will be answered tomorrow.

The second is answered by scoopers in this thread fed by their own ego concerning how much they think they know over the next guy.

The third is subjective and clouded a bit by our fanboy-itis...which is fine. A little of Question 2 gets in as well.

The fourth....which I put most stock it....well we have an answer, don't we.

26 points!

I understand the criteria which goes into seeding each team, but I mean cmon. If all things are just about equal and one team destroyed the other team, the destroyer should be seeded higher.

[statnik]

Yeah - WTF is going on in Bracket world - most now have Gonzaga ahead of MU.

If we were ahead of them are reveal and this has happened since

MU:

X (19 - Home - Q1)
CU (16 - Away Q1A)
DP (163 - Home - Q4)
Butler (133 - Away - Q2)
SJU (99 - Home - Q3
SJU (99 - N - Q2)
UCONN (8 - N - Q1A)

Zags:

LMU (107 - Away - Q2)
Pepperdine (201 - H - Q4)
San Diego (230 - H - Q4)
Saint Mary's (11 - H - Q1A)
Chicago St (299 - H - Q4)
San Francisco (108 - N - Q3)
Saint Mary's (11 - N - Q1A)

So MU has 2 Q1A wins (against different team), another Q1 win, 2 Q2, 1 Q3 and 1Q4

While Zag has 2 Q1A wins (against same team), 0 Q1a, 1 Q2,  1 Q3 and 3 Q4 wins.

Maybe brackets aren't update - but pleass TAMU and Brew - tell me how Zag would move ahead of MU?

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Might have to consider how many of those MU wins were close squeakers against average or below average BE teams.  I have no problem if that thinking has Gonzaga placed ahead of us.

[wadesworld]

I mean you can try that but I wouldn't recommend it. Baylor has 11 Q1 wins and they are either going to be the last 2 or top 3 seed. Oklahoma has 6 Q1 wins and they aren't even making the NIT. I don't think 4 Q1 wins would cut it for a 1 seed. Or even a tourney berth

That'd be 4 non-con Q1 wins. That'd be great. And if MU is a 3, that's what they should do. Play as many Q1 games as possible. No downside, huge upside. Total wins don't matter. Q1 wins matter. Total losses don't matter. Q3 and Q4 losses matter. Can't lose Q3/4 games if you don't play any.

[forgetful]

Might have to consider how many of those MU wins were close squeakers against average or below average BE teams.  I have no problem if that thinking has Gonzaga placed ahead of us.

It's even simpler than that. Gonzaga has (by a wide margin) the most efficient offense by computer numbers in the NCAA. So the computers say they are better overall.

As an example, Kenpom has their offense number 1 (124.0), the next closest team is Baylor (121.8), we are 6th (120.0) thats a big difference in computer numbers. ON the defensive side, they are at 76th overall (99.8), we are at 63rd (98.9). Even though we are only 5 ranks behind them on offense, and 13 ahead on defense. The net numbers favor Gonzaga.

Now, do those computer numbers really mean anything?  The committee says yes.

But the computers said we should have lost to UCONN.

[wadesworld]

MU would blow out St. Mary's too. One of the most overrated (at least analytically) teams in recent memories.

[mugrad_89]

MU would blow out St. Mary's too. One of the most overrated (at least analytically) teams in recent memories.

They really need to come up with a better way to rank teams.  They are not the 11th best team in the country.

[avid1010]

Opened FAU -1.5. Lots of $$ on UAB

There is a group of "sharps" that have been jumping on early UAB lines and futures all year long. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That'd be 4 non-con Q1 wins. That'd be great. And if MU is a 3, that's what they should do. Play as many Q1 games as possible. No downside, huge upside. Total wins don't matter. Q1 wins matter. Total losses don't matter. Q3 and Q4 losses matter. Can't lose Q3/4 games if you don't play any.

Ah I misunderstood didn't get that you were saying 4 Q1 wins for just the non conference not the whole season. I mean that's a way to do it and if you can win enough games that would be a great strategy (minus the financial implications). You have to be able to win enough though.  Keep in mind that Baylor only has 10 losses total and 11 Q1 wins. In the 4-9 example you gave (you said 4-10 but you're only allowed 13 non conference games), that would mean that you would have to go 19-1 in Big East play to match Baylors overall record and 7 of those 19 wins would have to be Q1. This season MU only had 8 Q1 opportunities in conference. So that would be a very thin line to try to just match what Baylor did this season....and again they're only in line for the last 2 or top 3 seed....so 1 seed is not likely in your scenario.

Overall wins and losses matter. Not just as much as other factors. Baylor  beats us in most of the other factors. Will our significantly better overall record be enough to overcome that? Maybe, we'll find out tomorrow.  I hope we win tonight and make it a very difficult decision

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Remember a year ago when we all laughed at Buzz' manifesto and said things like "should have scheduled a better non conference"? Same applies here. We had a really weak non conference schedule this season this year and  it's holding us back. It's not completely our fault,  @Notre Dame is usually a Q1, GT on a neutral floor is usually at least a Q3, and Bucky is usually at least Q2. If we beat Mississippi St, we're likely locked in as a 2 seed already, even if we lost Utah (would have essentially traded a Q1 loss/Q4 win for a Q1 win/Q2 loss).

Next season we shouldn't have this issue. Maui will be a beast. Bucky will be on the road so should at least be a Q2. We should get a prime time placement in the Gavitt and B12 battle games. We may even find ourselves with a worse overall record but higher seed.

[IrwinFletcher]

Remember a year ago when we all laughed at Buzz' manifesto and said things like "should have scheduled a better non conference"? Same applies here. We had a really weak non conference schedule this season this year and  it's holding us back. It's not completely our fault,  @Notre Dame is usually a Q1, GT on a neutral floor is usually at least a Q3, and Bucky is usually at least Q2. If we beat Mississippi St, we're likely locked in as a 2 seed already, even if we lost Utah (would have essentially traded a Q1 loss/Q4 win for a Q1 win/Q2 loss).

Next season we shouldn't have this issue. Maui will be a beast. Bucky will be on the road so should at least be a Q2. We should get a prime time placement in the Gavitt and B12 battle games. We may even find ourselves with a worse overall record but higher seed.

And add to the fact we are unlikely to go 17-3 in the BE.

[CountryRoads]

Remember a year ago when we all laughed at Buzz' manifesto and said things like "should have scheduled a better non conference"? Same applies here.

Not really. Buzz scheduled 8 buy games which is why people were mocking them for it. Not anything to do with high majors dropping an arbitrary Quadrant line.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Not really. Buzz scheduled 8 buy games which is why people were mocking them for it. Not anything to do with high majors dropping an arbitrary Quadrant line.

It does, just on a different scale. Buzz got left out of the tournament because his noncon was weaker than the other bubble teams.  We are struggling to get a 2 seed because our noncon is weaker than other potential 2 seeds.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

It does, just on a different scale. Buzz got left out of the tournament because his noncon was weaker than the other bubble teams.  We are struggling to get a 2 seed because our noncon is weaker than other potential 2 seeds.

I thought it was because the big 12 has more teams in q1 not non-con.  Am I mistaken?

[wadesworld]

Q1 wins matter unless you're Gonzaga. Then you don't need them to get a 1 or 2 seed. 2 of their 6 Q1 wins are against St. Mary's and one is against Michigan State.

[1SE]

And add to the fact we are unlikely to go 17-3 in the BE.

I mean right? How we gonna lose 3games?

[mugrad_89]

Lunardi just moved us to a 2.

[JWags85]

Lunardi just moved us to a 2.

Welp, we're screwed now

[mugrad_89]

Welp, we're screwed now

Those 15 seeds make me nervous.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Q1 wins matter unless you're Gonzaga. Then you don't need them to get a 1 or 2 seed. 2 of their 6 Q1 wins are against St. Mary's and one is against Michigan State.

Q1 wins do matter. So does:
Q3 losses
Q4 losses
Non conference SOS
Overall SOS
Road and neutral records

As well as to a lesser degree:
Average NET win and loss
Overall record

As well as to an even lesser degree:
NET
Game scoring margins

You have to look at the entire resume, not just one or two pieces.

[DoctorV]

Can't wait to hear the head of the committee answer how Marquette, 28-6, 17-3 and BE regular season champion as well as BE Tournament Champion ends up on the same seed line as UConn and one line lower than Baylor.

UConn 25-8, 13-7 and lost to Marquette 2x.
Baylor 22-10, 11-7 and lost to Marquette by 30.

I get it, and I know it doesn't work this way, but I've said this before and I'll say it until I'm blue in the face...
Sometimes we get too bogged down by numbers, by data, by computers, and we all become robots to what the next guy is saying and what the computer is spitting out.

Marquette is a 2 seed, and if they aren't, it's a shame on that Committee.
When they win tomorrow it'll help all bracketologists "save face" because many will quickly move Marquette to the 2 line before the Selection Show on Sunday.

Honestly, I wouldn't be at all shocked to see BOTH Marquette and Gonzaga on the 2 line, but I think Gonzaga is a bigger stretch than Marquette.

When Marquette wins tomorrow night they will solidify their spot as a 2 seed. Even if they don't, they should be a 2 seed.
If not, that's a shame on the Committee.

Bump.

It's a 2, and if it isn't it's a damn shame on the committee.

Bracketologists everywhere will hustle to get Marquette in their 2 line tomorrow morning methinks

[wadesworld]

Q1 wins do matter. So does:
Q3 losses
Q4 losses
Non conference SOS
Overall SOS
Road and neutral records

As well as to a lesser degree:
Average NET win and loss
Overall record

As well as to an even lesser degree:
NET
Game scoring margins

You have to look at the entire resume, not just one or two pieces.

Yes. Q1 wins and Q3/4 losses matter. Q2-4 wins and Q1 losses don't matter. So schedule 13 Q1 road non con games, win a few, and you're golden. Seems that'd help the non con and overall SOS and net wins and losses. There's very little downside given what is valued.