Explosions in Kiev

[dgies9156]

Your knowledge of Ukrainian politics is fairly out of date.  The current president of Ukraine is an entertainment (literally a clown by profession).  The Ukrainian revolution changed the government significantly.

The government changed.

Do you really think the corruption did? Do you really think the Ukrainian Mafia is less prevalent now than it was in the late 1990s?

I don't. I think the issues are the same both before and after the Velvet Revolution.

[Hards Alumni]

The government changed.

Do you really think the corruption did? Do you really think the Ukrainian Mafia is less prevalent now than it was in the late 1990s?

I don't. I think the issues are the same both before and after the Velvet Revolution.

Of course not, and change takes time, but 2006 Ukraine isn't 2022 Ukraine either.

[Galway Eagle]

I don't think you see any attempt on Poland or other Slavic/Baltic states.

The thing I'd worry more about, is China using the same logic as Russia to invade Taiwan.

I would hope not but I'm reading an article about his main goal is to bring back the Tsarist Russia. If that were the case he'd obviously want to hit the country with the weakest alliance (no NATO or EU) before trying the others.

[MuggsyB]

We can open up more of our energy reserves and make a deal with the Euro countries dependent on Putin and Russia. 

[rocky_warrior]

I tried to clean up some of the latest purely politically motivated posts.  Jockey, 4ever, Rocket, Zig - if you can't keep your opinions of present or former presidents out of this, I'll just use the ban-hammer next time.

[MuggsyB]

The government changed.

Do you really think the corruption did? Do you really think the Ukrainian Mafia is less prevalent now than it was in the late 1990s?

I don't. I think the issues are the same both before and after the Velvet Revolution.

Their government is incredibly corrupt and not really a democracy at all.  But we know Putin will go after the Baltics and then the former Soviet Bloc countries.  We need to eliminate his only leverage which is oil. 

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I tried to clean up some of the latest purely politically motivated posts.  Jockey, 4ever, Rocket, Zig - if you can't keep your opinions of present or former presidents out of this, I'll just use the ban-hammer next time.

What did I say about any former presidents besides calling out jockitch?

[MuggsyB]

Ukraine might as well throw their hands up and concede.  There is no way the Ukraine defense forces can protect the country without significant losses to both military and civilians.  Russia is just pinpointing certain Ukraine defense sites and airports.  Then it will be bridges/roads.  Then all Ukraine communication/TV/media sites.  Then come the troops. NATO can only stand by and watch.  Zelensky tried his hardest, but Putin will not stop until they are in control with his appointed government.  Shame, because the Ukraine people seem extremely down to earth and now they are starting to flee to Poland. 

It would be like a Scooper going into a cage match with Mike Tyson, not going to win. I wouldn't even enter the cage.

If Ukraine throws in the towel, then losses to the civilian population will be minimized.  Zelensky asking the citizens to get guns and help the country was not a good sign.  This is not like the movie Red Dawn.......

No, it's not a fair fight and will be ugly.  Of course the Russians fully expected to roll Finland during the 1940-41 Winter War and did not anticipate Simo Hayha annihilating 700+ by himself.  Why there isn't a feature film of Simo is absurd.  Total badass.

[rocky_warrior]

What did I say about any former presidents besides calling out jockitch?

If you can't ignore or report, then I've got a hammer.  And that wasn't an exhaustive list, I just went back to the beginning.  Tower and Rico bit on political traps too.   Just naming some names, I don't care who does it next.

[MuggsyB]

I don't think you see any attempt on Poland or other Slavic/Baltic states.

The thing I'd worry more about, is China using the same logic as Russia to invade Taiwan.

Yes, this is an enormous concern as is Iran.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

If you can't ignore or report, then I've got a hammer.  And that wasn't an exhaustive list, I just went back to the beginning.  Tower and Rico bit on political traps too.   Just naming some names, I don't care who does it next.

Whatever.

[Galway Eagle]

Yes, this is an enormous concern as is Iran.

Iran invading Taiwan? Or what about Iran?

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Iran invading Taiwan? Or what about Iran?

Iran will target Israel.

[MuggsyB]

If you can't ignore or report, then I've got a hammer.  And that wasn't an exhaustive list, I just went back to the beginning.  Tower and Rico bit on political traps too.   Just naming some names, I don't care who does it next.

That's fair.  What other weapons do you have at your disposal out of curiosity?

[Hards Alumni]

Yes, this is an enormous concern as is Iran.

Iran is a boogeyman with no regional power.

Their government is incredibly corrupt and not really a democracy at all.  But we know Putin will go after the Baltics and then the former Soviet Bloc countries.  We need to eliminate his only leverage which is oil. 

It's a fairly young democracy.  Calling it not one is wildly incorrect.  Putin isn't going after the Baltic states.  As I said earlier, if he dies we will all die.

The sanctions we and the other international powers have imposed are directed at the oil/gas portion of Russias economy.  So we are already doing that.

[Uncle Rico]

That's fair.  What other weapons do you have at your disposal out of curiosity?

Arby's horsey sauce

[tower912]

I accept my warning and will endeavor to do better in the future.

We are down to sanctions or boots on the ground.  Freeze enough oligarch money, isolate them as much as possible.    Long term, time to start arming the crap out of NATO.

If China takes Taiwan, what are the options?   Even fewer than with Russia.

[MuggsyB]

Iran invading Taiwan? Or what about Iran?

I think China and Iran are watching this very closely.  We know Iran's influence from a funding terrorism perspective and Israel of course is always vulnerable. 

If it were up to me Galway there would only be like 20 countries and we would have 98% of the world's power as I'm sure you know.  Of course Ireland would be on  my 20 list. 

[forgetful]

Their government is incredibly corrupt and not really a democracy at all.  But we know Putin will go after the Baltics and then the former Soviet Bloc countries.  We need to eliminate his only leverage which is oil.

What are you willing to accept as a result. There isn't enough oil and natural gas out there. If we divert some of our resources to Europe, our supplies are inadequate.

Are you willing to pay $6-7 a gallon at the pump, and have electricity/heating bills in the $1-2k a month range?

Do you think other American's are willing to accept the same?

There is a reason that for the most part the world looks the other way when certain countries violate the rules. The question is whether the rise in global nationalism starts to extend to other conflicts or not.

[MuggsyB]

Iran is a boogeyman with no regional power.

It's a fairly young democracy.  Calling it not one is wildly incorrect.  Putin isn't going after the Baltic states.  As I said earlier, if he dies we will all die.

The sanctions we and the other international powers have imposed are directed at the oil/gas portion of Russias economy.  So we are already doing that.

You don't think we can produce more oil here and essentially cripple him permanently?  He has no leverage without the Euro market.

[Hards Alumni]

Iran will target Israel.

0% chance.  Israel has nukes.

[MUBurrow]

If China takes Taiwan, what are the options?   Even fewer than with Russia.

Just my two cents but Xi is smarter and gives way more of a frack than Putin, so his Taiwan play won't be nearly as hamfisted.  But you're right, there isn't much we can do.  And the the interconnectedness of our economy with the Chinese economy means there is way less we can even do from a sanctions standpoint.  This is all evolving into a conversation about who strongmen can and can't hit.  To quote The Departed - Ukraine and Taiwan aren't guys you can't hit, but they're almost guys you can't hit.  I think Israel is actually a guy you can't hit.

[MuggsyB]

What are you willing to accept as a result. There isn't enough oil and natural gas out there. If we divert some of our resources to Europe, our supplies are inadequate.

Are you willing to pay $6-7 a gallon at the pump, and have electricity/heating bills in the $1-2k a month range?

Do you think other American's are willing to accept the same?

There is a reason that for the most part the world looks the other way when certain countries violate the rules. The question is whether the rise in global nationalism starts to extend to other conflicts or not.

Would opening up Keystone and some of our other reserves make prices  rise to that level? 

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

You don't think we can produce more oil here and essentially cripple him permanently?  He has no leverage without the Euro market.

I agree. 
Russia has no other export except military hardware and some minerals.

There was a report yesterday before the invasion that several of the oligarchs were already pissed and squawking in his ear to no avail.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Would opening up Keystone and some of our other reserves make prices  rise to that level?

I think here is where the oil is coming from to replace Russia's.  Russia's invasion is paving the way to a quick resolve.


Negotiations over the Iran nuclear deal are close to the end, and a deal appears possible
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/23/iran-us-nuclear-deal/