Explosions in Kiev

[Hards Alumni]

He has and  the current"sanctions" aren't going to work.  We have all known his exact goals for quite some time.  This has to be prevented and unfortunately it will be really ugly.  Sending weapons to Ukraine  and setting up refugee camps isn't a particularly strong response.  If we won't pump oil here can we still realistically cripple him economically?

The US produces the most oil in the world, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

How do you suggest stopping a nuclear armed country?  Direct conflict?  Don't be silly.

[MuggsyB]

The US produces the most oil in the world, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

How do you suggest stopping a nuclear armed country?  Direct conflict?  Don't be silly.

Much of Europe is dependent on Russia's oil.

[Hards Alumni]

Much of Europe is dependent on Russia's oil.

Yes, i am aware that Russia is a petro-state.  And that Europe wants their cheap natural gas.  Nord Stream 2 was cancelled yesterday.  That coupled with the other financial sanctions are close to the maximum we can do without direct military engagement.  I expect the US and other G7 countries to expand and increase the sanctions today.  Access to the SWIFT banking system will hurt Russia immensely, but it will only push them closer to China.

Again, what do you suggest beyond what we are doing  to halt Russia's advances in Ukraine? 

[MarquetteDano]

Looking at this thread I have to call out a lot of people here.  Most of you are falling for exactly what the Chinas, Irans, Russias have been setting up for years.  They astroturf us,  social media us,  auto-bot us, and generally divided us just beautifully over the past 10+ years.

And now something as simple as an attack on an ally and everyone is too busy taking sides against one another versus looking at the true enemy.

We are getting outsmarted and we don't even care or don't see it.

[dgies9156]

Mr. Putin is behaving like Adolf Hitler. The question now is how are we going to react. Will we be Neville Chamberlin proclaiming "peace in our time" because Mr. Putin annexed Ukraine in a fashion similar to how Mr. Hitler annexed the Sudetenland? We saw how well that worked.

Or will we be like John Kennedy who risked all-out nuclear war to get Soviet nuclear warheads out of Cuba. Or like Jimmy Carter, who used grain and trade embargos to punish the Soviet Union for Afghanistan. My hope is that the current leadership is up to the challenge. The problem, as Mr. Putin knows, is we have an inwardly focused administration confronted with a serious external challenge. Our measuring stick is less about world leadership and more about whether energy prices will rise, inflation will spike and the next elections will be less than ideal.

My personal fear is we are at an inflection point in global history where comparatively weak American responses and ambitious dictators collide to create instability in places where we have limited capability to respond.

As a side note, my son is from Luhansk. He was born there.

[jesmu84]

Looking at this thread I have to call out a lot of people here.  Most of you are falling for exactly what the Chinas, Irans, Russias have been setting up for years.  They astroturf us,  social media us,  auto-bot us, and generally divided us just beautifully over the past 10+ years.

And now something as simple as an attack on an ally and everyone is too busy taking sides against one another versus looking at the true enemy.

We are getting outsmarted and we don't even care or don't see it.

Okay...

What are your solutions at this moment?

[Warriors4ever]

John Kennedy risked  war because those missiles were in our backyard ninety miles away, plus Khrushchev didn’t want nuclear war either.
The US is not going to risk nuclear war over Ukraine, just not going to happen.

[jesmu84]

Mr. Putin is behaving like Adolf Hitler. The question now is how are we going to react. Will we be Neville Chamberlin proclaiming "peace in our time" because Mr. Putin annexed Ukraine in a fashion similar to how Mr. Hitler annexed the Sudetenland? We saw how well that worked.

Or will we be like John Kennedy who risked all-out nuclear war to get Soviet nuclear warheads out of Cuba. Or like Jimmy Carter, who used grain and trade embargos to punish the Soviet Union for Afghanistan. My hope is that the current leadership is up to the challenge. The problem, as Mr. Putin knows, is we have an inwardly focused administration confronted with a serious external challenge. Our measuring stick is less about world leadership and more about whether energy prices will rise, inflation will spike and the next elections will be less than ideal.

My personal fear is we are at an inflection point in global history where comparatively weak American responses and ambitious dictators collide to create instability in places where we have limited capability to respond.

As a side note, my son is from Luhansk. He was born there.

Does Putin have global aspirations?

[MarquetteDano]

Okay...

What are your solutions at this moment?

Well since I am a geo-political/military expert.... 

I would tell you what I would like.  I would like our political and military leaders to stay out of the blame game and sit down with one another and put together a plan outside of the press.

I fear Putin has aspirations beyond Ukraine so a red line will need to be drawn.

[Uncle Rico]

Does Putin have global aspirations?

Putin may not but other nations may. 

I don’t know what the American response should be.  Dano is correct, let’s look at the first response by many.  It isn’t condemning Putin and Russia but using it as a political point.  This isn’t unique to one side of the political spectrum.  We have a nation where “America First” is being hammered home on a daily and nightly basis.  How much traction does it have?  Seems like a lot but who really knows.  I don’t have any faith in either political party right now to have the proper response.  Whatever response is made will immediately be considered too weak or too punitive. 

[MUBurrow]

There seems to be a lot of Helen Lovejoy-ing around this situation.  Blaming the other political party or if not that, blaming the political apparatus as a whole. But that's all window dressing.  To those folks - US military force on the ground in Ukraine, yes or no? 

If the answer is no, the administration is doing all that can really be done.  You don't have to like that geopolitical reality, but it is what it is.  So pontificating on how this is Hitler or whatever else is just handwringing. 

If yes - when should that build up have started? Ground troops?  We good with seeing US service men and women come home in caskets in service of an independent Ukraine?

[Uncle Rico]

There seems to be a lot of Helen Lovejoy-ing around this situation.  Blaming the other political party or if not that, blaming the political apparatus as a whole. But that's all window dressing.  To those folks - US military force on the ground in Ukraine, yes or no? 

If the answer is no, the administration is doing all that can really be done.  So pontificating on how this is Hitler or whatever else is just handwringing. 

If yes - when should that build up have started? Ground troops?  We good with seeing US service men and women come home in caskets in service of an independent Ukraine?

This is a great framing of the situation and why no one will be happy with whatever response there is. 

[Galway Eagle]

If Russia touches Poland or any of the other western Slavic states/Baltic states which are a part of NATO we look at all out war. As of now he basically invaded the only country he could without necessitating a response from the rest of Europe, USA and Canada.

[jesmu84]

There seems to be a lot of Helen Lovejoy-ing around this situation.  Blaming the other political party or if not that, blaming the political apparatus as a whole. But that's all window dressing.  To those folks - US military force on the ground in Ukraine, yes or no? 

If the answer is no, the administration is doing all that can really be done.  You don't have to like that geopolitical reality, but it is what it is.  So pontificating on how this is Hitler or whatever else is just handwringing. 

If yes - when should that build up have started? Ground troops?  We good with seeing US service men and women come home in caskets in service of an independent Ukraine?

Well spoken

[Pakuni]

There seems to be a lot of Helen Lovejoy-ing around this situation.  Blaming the other political party or if not that, blaming the political apparatus as a whole. But that's all window dressing.  To those folks - US military force on the ground in Ukraine, yes or no? 

If the answer is no, the administration is doing all that can really be done.  You don't have to like that geopolitical reality, but it is what it is.  So pontificating on how this is Hitler or whatever else is just handwringing. 

If yes - when should that build up have started? Ground troops?  We good with seeing US service men and women come home in caskets in service of an independent Ukraine?

Yep.
Need to make this as financially painful as possible, especially for Putin's oligarch benefactors who are likely the only people who have any influence over him. Other than that, not a whole lot that can be done short of WWIII.

[forgetful]

Providing weapons to Ukraine is what I would have supported. Condemnation and sanctions don’t mean anything to a despot who views the fall of the USSR as the worst development in world history. We didn’t need war, but we needed to take stronger action.

The only weapons capable of deterring Russia at all are our most advanced weaponry.

Ukraine has a a lot of pro-russia supporters in its governments and military. If we gave Ukraine that weaponry, our most advanced military secrets would essentially be being handed directly to the Russians.

An absolutely terrible idea.

[forgetful]

If Russia touches Poland or any of the other western Slavic states/Baltic states which are a part of NATO we look at all out war. As of now he basically invaded the only country he could without necessitating a response from the rest of Europe, USA and Canada.

I don't think you see any attempt on Poland or other Slavic/Baltic states.

The thing I'd worry more about, is China using the same logic as Russia to invade Taiwan.

[Lighthouse 84]

The thing I'd worry more about, is China using the same logic as Russia to invade Taiwan.

Ding Ding Ding.  I believe you've hit it on the head.

[MU82]

We haven't seen one suggestion here that's stronger than what the U.S. and its allies are already doing.

[dgies9156]

One of the things people fail to understand is the Ukrainian government does not have the undying loyalty of its people.

The government itself is a kleptocracy. Our own experience there was awful, with rank and file Ukrainians asking, "why should we fight for this country...they will just steal us blind." There was an incredible amount of apathy toward the country by its citizens due largely to the government's lack of an ability to deal with day-to-day problems of Ukrainians.

Our driver there needed funds to bribe the proctor so he could take and pass his medical boards. Left open was the question of whether you could fail the Ukrainian medical boards and still be certified by bribing the proctor. Our son was adopted near Luhansk and weighed 12 pounds at 14 months due to a complete lack of nutrition. He was warehoused and almost left for dead for the first year of his life. We could not travel for a week because we had to get enough nourishment into him so he could be strong enough to travel.

His orphanage director was indicted by the general prosecutor for accepting bribes that allowed tainted baby food into the orphanage. 31 children like my son died because of horrible food poisoning. They were buried in the back yard of the orphanage and he was caught only because some of the children were slated to go to America. This is the kind of problem that occurs in Ukraine every day. It makes Illinois look like the capital of good government.

The risk of over-committing to Ukraine is we end up in another Vietnam, where the government we support does not have the support of the people. The risk of under-committing is that we end up not confronting tyranny and end up surrendering our leadership role in the world, like we did at the end of World War I.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Agreed. Ignoring the annexation of Crimea was the spark Putin needed to feel emboldened.

From yesterday's New York Times - The 2014 sanctions could have been stronger but they did have an effect

Can Sanctions Work?
Yes, but they often don’t.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/briefing/sanctions-russia-us-europe.html

excerpt
Targeted and weak
The 2014 sanctions against Russia did have some effect — arguably more than many people have realized. They made it harder for Russian banks to obtain foreign loans and restricted Western companies from working with Russian oil companies, among other steps.

By the summer of 2014, Russia’s economy was shrinking, and it continued shrinking for two years. The value of the ruble plunged on global markets, increasing the price of many goods for companies and consumers. Russian businesses had a harder time raising money for new projects.

These economic problems seem to have softened Putin’s domestic support. His approval rating among Russians initially surged after the Crimea invasion — to around 80 percent — before falling. It has hovered between 60 percent and 65 percent for much of the past two years, according to the Levada Center. Last year, opposition groups held some of the largest protests of Putin’s nearly two decades in power.

The sanctions might even have been painful enough to have deterred Putin from invading eastern Ukraine in 2014, which he seemed to be planning, as Anders Aslund and Maria Snegovaya have argued in an Atlantic Council report.



Monday's sanctions were even steeper than 2014 and the ones coming later this week will be targeted to completely cripple Russia.
I was reading this morning that China's statements are walking a tightrope, but apparently not happy about Russia invading.  They claim to be taken off guard, FWTW.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

One of the things people fail to understand is the Ukrainian government does not have the undying loyalty of its people.

The government itself is a kleptocracy. Our own experience there was awful, with rank and file Ukrainians asking, "why should we fight for this country...they will just steal us blind." There was an incredible amount of apathy toward the country by its citizens due largely to the government's lack of an ability to deal with day-to-day problems of Ukrainians.

Our driver there needed funds to bribe the proctor so he could take and pass his medical boards. Left open was the question of whether you could fail the Ukrainian medical boards and still be certified by bribing the proctor. Our son was adopted near Luhansk and weighed 12 pounds at 14 months due to a complete lack of nutrition. He was warehoused and almost left for dead for the first year of his life. We could not travel for a week because we had to get enough nourishment into him so he could be strong enough to travel.

His orphanage director was indicted by the general prosecutor for accepting bribes that allowed tainted baby food into the orphanage. 31 children like my son died because of horrible food poisoning. They were buried in the back yard of the orphanage and he was caught only because some of the children were slated to go to America. This is the kind of problem that occurs in Ukraine every day. It makes Illinois look like the capital of good government.

The risk of over-committing to Ukraine is we end up in another Vietnam, where the government we support does not have the support of the people. The risk of under-committing is that we end up not confronting tyranny and end up surrendering our leadership role in the world, like we did at the end of World War I.

Russia is so terribly corrupt.
My company is owned by a Finnish company and the corporation has a sales office in St. Petersburg. 
Russia is one of less than a handful of countries that pre-payment is required before any shipments are made. 

[nyg]

Ukraine might as well throw their hands up and concede.  There is no way the Ukraine defense forces can protect the country without significant losses to both military and civilians.  Russia is just pinpointing certain Ukraine defense sites and airports.  Then it will be bridges/roads.  Then all Ukraine communication/TV/media sites.  Then come the troops. NATO can only stand by and watch.  Zelensky tried his hardest, but Putin will not stop until they are in control with his appointed government.  Shame, because the Ukraine people seem extremely down to earth and now they are starting to flee to Poland. 

It would be like a Scooper going into a cage match with Mike Tyson, not going to win. I wouldn't even enter the cage.

If Ukraine throws in the towel, then losses to the civilian population will be minimized.  Zelensky asking the citizens to get guns and help the country was not a good sign.  This is not like the movie Red Dawn.......

[Hards Alumni]

One of the things people fail to understand is the Ukrainian government does not have the undying loyalty of its people.

The government itself is a kleptocracy. Our own experience there was awful, with rank and file Ukrainians asking, "why should we fight for this country...they will just steal us blind." There was an incredible amount of apathy toward the country by its citizens due largely to the government's lack of an ability to deal with day-to-day problems of Ukrainians.

Our driver there needed funds to bribe the proctor so he could take and pass his medical boards. Left open was the question of whether you could fail the Ukrainian medical boards and still be certified by bribing the proctor. Our son was adopted near Luhansk and weighed 12 pounds at 14 months due to a complete lack of nutrition. He was warehoused and almost left for dead for the first year of his life. We could not travel for a week because we had to get enough nourishment into him so he could be strong enough to travel.

His orphanage director was indicted by the general prosecutor for accepting bribes that allowed tainted baby food into the orphanage. 31 children like my son died because of horrible food poisoning. They were buried in the back yard of the orphanage and he was caught only because some of the children were slated to go to America. This is the kind of problem that occurs in Ukraine every day. It makes Illinois look like the capital of good government.

The risk of over-committing to Ukraine is we end up in another Vietnam, where the government we support does not have the support of the people. The risk of under-committing is that we end up not confronting tyranny and end up surrendering our leadership role in the world, like we did at the end of World War I.

Your knowledge of Ukrainian politics is fairly out of date.  The current president of Ukraine is an entertainment (literally a clown by profession).  The Ukrainian revolution changed the government significantly.

[Hards Alumni]

Ukraine might as well throw their hands up and concede.  There is no way the Ukraine defense forces can protect the country without significant losses to both military and civilians.  Russia is just pinpointing certain Ukraine defense sites and airports.  Then it will be bridges/roads.  Then all Ukraine communication/TV/media sites.  Then come the troops. NATO can only stand by and watch.  Zelensky tried his hardest, but Putin will not stop until they are in control with his appointed government.  Shame, because the Ukraine people seem extremely down to earth and now they are starting to flee to Poland. 

It would be like a Scooper going into a cage match with Mike Tyson, not going to win. I wouldn't even enter the cage.

If Ukraine throws in the towel, then losses to the civilian population will be minimized.  Zelensky asking the citizens to get guns and help the country was not a good sign.  This is not like the movie Red Dawn.......

The move by Russia to invade is going to be very costly.  There are 44 million people in Ukraine.  There were far less in Chechnya and it was bloody and unpopular.  Ukrainians will probably create an insurgency in the same way.