POLL: Record Over the Next 6 Games

[Goose]

DoctorV

Somebody has to win the BE and be a top five seed, why not the good guys? We have a tough stretch and need to stay sharp, and let's see what happens. I would not be surprised if we were in a better position in three weeks.

[jimmybutlerfanatic]

1 - 0 so far!

Great start!

2 - 0

[Ardmore Mug]

WELLLLLL !!!!!
2022, 10:43:21 AM »
QuoteModify
I went 4-2 ! ! !  Because in the Early season poll, I said 20 wins ! ! !     GO WARRIORS ! ! !
No changes from me !!!!   WELLL   we shall see ! ! !
 

[VanderBlueFanClub]

I think we go 5-1, I think we drop Seton Hall, but that's it.

[GooooMarquette]

6-0, because why the hell not?

[CountryRoads]

Assuming the St Johns game is not made up, I'd say our magic number is 4 to lock up a bid. I find it hard to believe we'd be left out at 18-13 (10-9), assuming a first round exit in BET.

That's a 4-7 finish even with this good run. Many on here predicted 2-4 in this stretch. That would have put much more pressure on a really strong finish.

[1SE]

Assuming the St Johns game is not made up, I'd say our magic number is 4 to lock up a bid. I find it hard to believe we'd be left out at 18-13 (10-9), assuming a first round exit in BET.

That's a 4-7 finish even with this good run. Many on here predicted 2-4 in this stretch. That would have put much more pressure on a really strong finish.

Yeah, 18 is for real a mortal lock now with the wins we have. If we don't get there considering we the wins we have  that would be a major melt down considering we have 5 games left against the bottom feeders.

I think the more meaningful conversation now is seed. I don't know if Brew,'s magic machine can do all the permutations, but it seems like a 21-10 record should be about a 6 seed which would be great to get out of the 7-10 range which makes the second weekend much tricker. We've already beaten a few teams of 3-seed caliber.

[1SE]

That said, as of right now four I-A games in a row coming up - out of the fire into the frying pan.

But about an 80% chance we win at least one. 40% chance we win 2 or more. 1.2% chance we win em all...

[lawdog77]

Not sure where to ask this, so I'll put it here.
Why do sites list us in 5th, when we are a game out of first, but Creighton and Uconn are listed ahead, when they are 1.5 out of first?

[PGsHeroes32]

Not sure where to ask this, so I'll put it here.
Why do sites list us in 5th, when we are a game out of first, but Creighton and Uconn are listed ahead, when they are 1.5 out of first?

Those sites are wrong. We all have the same win %. But we have played 3 more games, its supposed to go to us.

[wadesworld]

Those sites are wrong. We all have the same win %. But we have played 3 more games, its supposed to go to us.

Creighton and UCONN both have the head to head tiebreaker on us.

[brewcity77]

Yeah, 18 is for real a mortal lock now with the wins we have. If we don't get there considering we the wins we have  that would be a major melt down considering we have 5 games left against the bottom feeders.

I think the more meaningful conversation now is seed. I don't know if Brew,'s magic machine can do all the permutations, but it seems like a 21-10 record should be about a 6 seed which would be great to get out of the 7-10 range which makes the second weekend much tricker. We've already beaten a few teams of 3-seed caliber.

I haven't rescrubbed yet, but I think (including a BET loss) 18-13 gives us a chance, 19-12 makes us a lock, 20+ gets us into single digit seed territory. 21-10 would probably have us in the 6-8 range depending on what other teams do. FWIW, Dave Ommen has us as a 4-seed as of this morning. He's typically one of the best in the business. I'm not sure I agree with him yet, but we are starting to fly pretty high.

[tower912]

Brew, recalibrate down to 30.   Unlikely SJU is rescheduled.   31 means first round Big East Loss.

[Herman Cain]

I was in 3-3 camp when the poll came out.

Hoping we can out perform that.

[Galway Eagle]

I was in 3-3 camp when the poll came out.

Hoping we can out perform that.

Same, 1 more W to go.

[brewcity77]

Brew, recalibrate down to 30.   Unlikely SJU is rescheduled.   31 means first round Big East Loss.

My original post factored in a first-round BET loss:

I haven't rescrubbed yet, but I think (including a BET loss) 18-13 gives us a chance, 19-12 makes us a lock, 20+ gets us into single digit seed territory.

I know some are optimistic about 18-13 being enough, but consider what that means. Only 4 wins in our last 10, which means taking at least one bad loss, most likely DePaul or Butler on the road. And 10-9 in the Big East probably puts us into 6th or 7th place in the league, so assuming a BET first round loss means losing on Wednesday to either Georgetown or Butler.

We're in good shape now, but I'm not sure we're in good enough shape that 18-13 with two bad losses and no more quality wins added makes us a lock even for Dayton. 19 wins is a better target, even if one is just avoiding a bad loss by beating Georgetown or Butler on Wednesday.

[rocky_warrior]

We're in good shape now, but I'm not sure we're in good enough shape that 18-13 with two bad losses and no more quality wins added makes us a lock even for Dayton. 19 wins is a better target, even if one is just avoiding a bad loss by beating Georgetown or Butler on Wednesday.

Agreed.  But keep playing as well as the last 6 games, and we don't even have to worry about it

[brewcity77]

Agreed.  But keep playing as well as the last 6 games, and we don't even have to worry about it

Keep playing as well as we have been and we'll be looking at a protected seed and griping about how we can't play in our home arena.

[mug644]

Not sure where to ask this, so I'll put it here.
Why do sites list us in 5th, when we are a game out of first, but Creighton and Uconn are listed ahead, when they are 1.5 out of first?

Those sites are wrong. We all have the same win %. But we have played 3 more games, its supposed to go to us.

Creighton and UCONN both have the head to head tiebreaker on us.

Is that right, that the tiebreaker when winning percentage is the same goes immediately to head to head matchups? That does seem to be what's going on with MU listed in 5th.

I would've guess that the number of wins would come first as a tiebreaker following winning percentage, putting MU ahead of both UConn and Creighton. I guess you can see it as sort of penalizing teams that don't play as many games, but you might just as easily want to acknowledge when a team can maintain the same percentage over more games.

Oh, well. Just keep winning!

[rocky_warrior]

I'm not sure who's right or wrong, BE has us listed 3rd.
https://www.bigeast.com/standings.aspx?path=mbball

[brewcity77]

I'm not sure who's right or wrong, BE has us listed 3rd.
https://www.bigeast.com/standings.aspx?path=mbball

We're likely listed third due to win quantity, but if those were the season ending standings, we'd be the 5-seed in the BET. Because of the tie in winning percentage, it would go to the "mini-conference" looking at record in games between those three teams. Both UConn and Creighton are 1-0 while we are 0-2, so we're out. They haven't played, so the next tiebreaker is win over the highest ranked team in league. Neither has beaten Providence (too bad we're eliminated before it gets to that tiebreaker) so the highest win would be Creighton's win at home over #2 Villanova. So standings would be...

1) Providence
2) Villanova
3) Creighton
4) UConn
5) Marquette

We would play UConn on Thursday as it stands.

[mug644]

Thanks for the details, Brew. Interesting that most listings I've seen has MU 5th, but, as Rocky points out, on the Big East website, MU is 3rd. You'd think that would be the ONE platform that would apply the seeding criteria for their own conference to the standings calculations!

[BM1090]

Agree with Brew. 19 wins pre-BET and we should be a lock. 18 is very dicey. Torvik projects an 18-12 MU team as one of the last four teams in prior to the BET. It would be close.

Get to 19-11 (11-8) and we jump up thirteen places to the best 9 seed. 20-10 (12-7) moves us to the top 7 seed.

The good news is that with 5 games left against Butler, DePaul, SJU and Georgetown, we shouldn't have trouble getting to 19 wins unless we fall off a cliff.

[Goose]

I forgot about getting 18 or 19 wins about nine months ago. Take care of business and there is no anxiety come BE tourney. If they do not win 20+ I will be disappointed.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I forgot about getting 18 or 19 wins about nine months ago. Take care of business and there is no anxiety come BE tourney. If they do not win 20+ I will be disappointed.

We are half through our toughest conference stretch. Let's just win the conference.