Omicron variant

[Jockey]

As I said when this started, isn't this what endemic Covid looks like?  A version of the virus that, although it spreads easier, by and large causes mild symptoms and less hospitalization and death?  Why would it mutate to a more virulent form from there?

The trend is definitely as you state.

But, we don't know what we don't know, though.

[Skatastrophy]

Fear of the big, bad virus. I don't know how to navigate. All rational thinking, along with common sense, goes out the door. Just give me a cookbook recipe how to survive this pandemic and I will do as you command, hey?

I think you're following the cookbook recipe to the letter.

Vaccinated & boosted. Wearing a mask when appropriate. Limiting your contact with others in Real Life by nature of spending most of your time on MUScoop. What else could we axe for?

[JWags85]

Omicron is new.   I am always open to new data.     And it could all fall apart.  All it takes is one mutation that makes it more lethal.     BTW, I told you I thought this was a 5 year arc, and we are now in year 3.

I recall.  And as then, assuming we just started year 3, given a Dec 2019 origin, I find it very hard to believe we have another 3 years of struggle.  Unless we are still counting cases and treating all with caution regardless of vax or boosted status, then who knows.  Or think COVID zero/near zero is a realistic aim.

But then again, you seem to be perfectly fine with any and all masking and other enduring mitigation measures and seem to think believing otherwise is selfish or silly.  So maybe you’re alright with the long grind towards total elimination regardless of time or toll.  Which is fine, to each their own I suppose. Agree to disagree

[forgetful]

The article says only 2 of the cases were confirmed omicron, correct?

Everything coming out about omicron suggests its less severe.  None of the Cornell cases are severe.  Cornell is treating it, IMO, like they are back to square one and they are near lockdown.

I don't run a university, I'm not a medical professional, so I'm not baselined with an excess of caution.

It just speaks to my underlying wonder of when this breaks.  When we stop treating vaccinated (and boosted) individuals testing positive with the same caution and concern we do the unvaxxed months ago.

My understanding, and the information I have says the majority (maybe almost all) of those cases are omicron. It is not 2 cases.

Regarding the severity of cases. We still really don't know on that front, the best data suggests that we may luck out and it will be less severe, but we haven't had enough cases in diverse population groups, and in non-vaccinated to really know everything on that front yet. So far, I'm optimistic it is less severe due to the way it seems to be infecting cells.

Also, Jwags, I'm confident that if you had the numbers in front of you, you would advise a University like Cornell to shut things down. It comes down to a simple cost/benefit analysis. The cost side is near zero, only final exams remain and that isn't something that needs to be in person. The benefit is mitigating spread on campus, and nationwide, and in the process saving lives and decreasing hospital burden. It is honestly a no-brainer.

The calculus on this might have been different if this was 2-months ago in the early part of the semester.

[forgetful]

As I said when this started, isn't this what endemic Covid looks like?  A version of the virus that, although it spreads easier, by and large causes mild symptoms and less hospitalization and death?  Why would it mutate to a more virulent form from there?

That is one outcome, but it isn't the most logical. It could have evolved into a more infectious and highly deadly version and wiped out the human population. The fact is, mutations occur to make something more able to replicate and spread. That occurs in the first several days of the infection.

Hospitalizations/deaths usually occur after this initial massive infectious phase, so are not necessarily an evolutionary pressure on virus mutations.

The only way more deadly versions are selected against, is if it makes people so sick, so fast, that there isn't time to spread to others (loses evolutionary battle). So whether this evolves to a milder, or more deadly virus long term is unknown.

How this plays out long term is even more complex.

Omicron infections are unlikely to protect individuals from Delta. So if everyone gets Omicron, that population can be a target for spread and evolution of Delta...possibly a more dangerous version of it (or another strain).

There are a number of other highly likely scenarios that could go to either more deadly, or more mild in their own right.

[pbiflyer]

Like I said, the plan is working so well. Why waste a good opportunity, hey?

So the 500,000 deaths since then is an example of so much winning, plan working well? No wonder you post gibberish, hey?

[pbiflyer]

I recall.  And as then, assuming we just started year 3, given a Dec 2019 origin, I find it very hard to believe we have another 3 years of struggle.  Unless we are still counting cases and treating all with caution regardless of vax or boosted status, then who knows.  Or think COVID zero/near zero is a realistic aim.

But then again, you seem to be perfectly fine with any and all masking and other enduring mitigation measures and seem to think believing otherwise is selfish or silly.  So maybe you’re alright with the long grind towards total elimination regardless of time or toll.  Which is fine, to each their own I suppose. Agree to disagree

An infinitesimal small percentage of people wearing seat belts actually benefit from it. Stupid to constantly wear one, hey?

[statnik]

That is one outcome, but it isn't the most logical. It could have evolved into a more infectious and highly deadly version and wiped out the human population. The fact is, mutations occur to make something more able to replicate and spread. That occurs in the first several days of the infection.

Hospitalizations/deaths usually occur after this initial massive infectious phase, so are not necessarily an evolutionary pressure on virus mutations.

The only way more deadly versions are selected against, is if it makes people so sick, so fast, that there isn't time to spread to others (loses evolutionary battle). So whether this evolves to a milder, or more deadly virus long term is unknown.

How this plays out long term is even more complex.

Omicron infections are unlikely to protect individuals from Delta. So if everyone gets Omicron, that population can be a target for spread and evolution of Delta...possibly a more dangerous version of it (or another strain).

There are a number of other highly likely scenarios that could go to either more deadly, or more mild in their own right.

This really reads like fear mongering.

[forgetful]

This really reads like fear mongering.

Its not fear mongering, its just evolutionary selection.

There is a selective pressure on different variants to be able to infect more hosts effectively. With COVID that ability to spread to other hosts is in the first days of the virus, when it has yet to get severe.

Any mutations that enhance that ability to spread in the initial days will win out; post infectious spread severe illness is not being selected against, so it has no/little bearing on the initial selection.

Since post-spread severity is not being selected against, variants can become either more or less severe in outcome without bias. So there is no "likely" endemic form.

It is now also true that there appears to not be a lot of overlap in neutralizing antibodies for Delta and Omicron, which means they can target the same pool of hosts. What we can hope for is that infection with either (or smarter vaccination), confers protection against severe COVID...I think that will prove to be true.

[JWags85]

An infinitesimal small percentage of people wearing seat belts actually benefit from it. Stupid to constantly wear one, hey?

Not sure what you’re trying to say here. Im not anti-vax in any way and am 3 in.  If you’re implying wearing masks indefinitely when fully boosted is the same as wearing a seatbelt, then we’ll just have to agree to disagree

[4everwarriors]

So the 500,000 deaths since then is an example of so much winning, plan working well? No wonder you post gibberish, hey?
[/quote



Neva let human lives get inda wey of big gubment's master plan. Ewe ar nothin' butt a pawn inda chess game, hey?

[Hards Alumni]

This really reads like fear mongering.

To someone like yourself who has problems telling the difference between the things you read on your facebook feed and a person who works in healthcare.

But epidemiology 101 isn't for everyone.

[jesmu84]

Neva let human lives get inda wey of big gubment's master plan. Ewe ar nothin' butt a pawn inda chess game, hey?

"Medical professional"

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The fact that 4ever couldn't even quote the post correctly is the cherry on top of the sundae.

[Skatastrophy]

The fact that 4ever couldn't even quote the post correctly is the cherry on top of the sundae.

Tech is hard for the elderly, we'll all be there eventually

[rocket surgeon]

heals up harry said both the delta and omicron caught them by surprise??  come on man!!  no joke?  and they had a plan to get rid of the chit for us?? 

  no wonder they told their pravda networks to get the death toll tracking numbers off the screen.  if they thought it looked bad for previous admin, it looks worse now...can't have any of that.  reminds me of stories about old russia tidying up the streets, filling the shelves, covering up the bruises...now smile and laugh for the cameras or else

[rocky_warrior]

I've learned that when I have no idea what Roq is talking about, I can just go to fox news website and look at the top headlines.

[4everwarriors]

heals up harry said both the delta and omicron caught them by surprise??  come on man!!  no joke?  and they had a plan to get rid of the chit for us?? 

  no wonder they told their pravda networks to get the death toll tracking numbers off the screen.  if they thought it looked bad for previous admin, it looks worse now...can't have any of that.  reminds me of stories about old russia tidying up the streets, filling the shelves, covering up the bruises...now smile and laugh for the cameras or else

Yeah butt Dr. Rocket, da deaths ar up cuz President Trump's minions vont get poked. Evan doe, FD Joe and President Harris promised dey gonna protect us. And Fr. Fauci sez da chit's gonna hit da phan. Keep pushin' and cell moore vaccines. Feer and kontrol, aina?

[jesmu84]

heals up harry said both the delta and omicron caught them by surprise??  come on man!!  no joke?  and they had a plan to get rid of the chit for us?? 

  no wonder they told their pravda networks to get the death toll tracking numbers off the screen.  if they thought it looked bad for previous admin, it looks worse now...can't have any of that.  reminds me of stories about old russia tidying up the streets, filling the shelves, covering up the bruises...now smile and laugh for the cameras or else

What segment of the population is dying? Vaxxed or unvaxxed?

[Uncle Rico]

heals up harry said both the delta and omicron caught them by surprise??  come on man!!  no joke?  and they had a plan to get rid of the chit for us?? 

  no wonder they told their pravda networks to get the death toll tracking numbers off the screen.  if they thought it looked bad for previous admin, it looks worse now...can't have any of that.  reminds me of stories about old russia tidying up the streets, filling the shelves, covering up the bruises...now smile and laugh for the cameras or else

This is a solid effort.  I have to give it a 9 out of 10. 

“Heels up Harry” is awesome.  Pravda is awesome.  Good to see it.  Have forwarded this to the alumni association in hopes it is added to memorable alum quotes.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Yeah butt Dr. Rocket, da deaths ar up cuz President Trump's minions vont get poked. Evan doe, FD Joe and President Harris promised dey gonna protect us. And Fr. Fauci sez da chit's gonna hit da phan. Keep pushin' and cell moore vaccines, aina?

The arsonists again complaining that the Fire Department isn't putting out fires fast enough.

But if the stupid unnatural carnal knowledgeers on the right insist on killing themselves in highly disproportionate numbers who am I to get in the way?

[4everwarriors]

Let's keep testin' asymptomatic, vaccinated folks. That'll fix it, hey?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I encourage you to practice what you preach and avoid further vaccines. Ensure those in your political circle are also aware of the evils of the vaccine. Really stick it to Biden and Fauci.

[jesmu84]

Let's keep testin' asymptomatic, vaccinated folks. That'll fix it, hey?

What does that have to with deaths?

"Medical professional"

[forgetful]

Articles showing that hospitals are currently overrun with COVID highlights the threat from Omicron.

Right now, only 17% of American's have gotten the booster shot. That means 83% are vulnerable to Omicron, and most live in areas where prevention methods (masks, social distancing) are not absent.

Omicron is far more infectious than any other variant, which means it will spread like wildfire. Even if it is less severe, the increased hospital burden cannot be accommodated, there are already shortages, which means excess deaths.

That is why some schools shut down. That is why a lot of schools are now putting in vaccine booster mandates. It is their civic duty to minimize the hospital burden, and to save lives.