Omicron variant

[MU82]

Oh great ...

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/11/25/world/covid-vaccine-boosters-mandates?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20211125&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=108420427&segment_id=75376&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa#variant-south-africa-covid

JOHANNESBURG — A concerning new variant of the coronavirus, whose mutations evidence a "big jump in evolution," is driving a spike in new Covid-19 infections in South Africa, scientists said on Thursday.

In the last 36 hours after observing an increase in infections in South Africa's economic hub, the Gauteng province, scientists detected the B1.1.529 variant. So far, 22 positive cases have been identified in South Africa, according to South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases.

Since the onset of the pandemic, a number of variants have emerged. One underlying concern about new variants is whether they will stymie progress against the pandemic or whether they will limit the vaccine's effectiveness. South African scientists will meet with the World Health Organization technical team on Friday, where authorities will assign a letter of the Greek alphabet to this one.

Botswana's health ministry confirmed in a statement that four cases of the new variant were detected in people who were all fully vaccinated. All four were tested before their planned travel. One sample was also detected in Hong Kong, carried by a traveler from South Africa, South African scientists said.

With over 1,200 new infections, South Africa's daily infection rate is much lower than in Germany, where new cases are driving a wave. However, the density of mutations on this new variant raises fears that it could be highly contagious, leading scientists to sound the alarm early.

"This variant did surprise us, it has a big jump in evolution, many more mutations than we expected, especially after a very severe third wave of Delta," said Tulio de Oliveira, director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform.

The B1.1.529 variant has a "very unusual constellation of mutations," with more than 30 mutations in the spike protein alone, said Mr. de Oliveira. On the ACE2 receptor — the protein that helps to create an entry point for the coronavirus to infect human cells — the new variant has 10 mutations. In comparison, the Beta variant has three, the Delta variant has two, said Mr. de Oliveira.

Displaying mutations that might resist neutralization, scientists are also still unclear how effective existing vaccines will be against the new variant. The variant shares similarities with the Lambda and Beta variants, which are associated with an innate evasion of immunity, said Richard Lessells, an infectious diseases specialist at the KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform.

"All these things are what give us some concern that this variant might have not just enhanced transmissibility, so spread more efficiently, but might also be able to get around parts of the immune system and the protection we have in our immune system," said Mr. Lessells.

The new variant has largely been detected among young people, the cohort that also has the lowest vaccination rate in South Africa. Just over a quarter of those ages between 18 and 34 are vaccinated, said Dr. Joe Phaahla, the country's minister of health.

While cases of the new variant are mainly concentrated in the country's economic hub, particularly in the capital Pretoria, it is "only a matter of time" before the virus spreads across the country as schools close and families prepare to travel for the holiday season, said Mr. Phaahla.

[Warriors4ever]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59424269

UK putting six African countries back on the red list, and will be instituting hotel quarantine for arrivals.

[Hards Alumni]

Oh great ...

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/11/25/world/covid-vaccine-boosters-mandates?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20211125&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=108420427&segment_id=75376&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa#variant-south-africa-covid

JOHANNESBURG — A concerning new variant of the coronavirus, whose mutations evidence a "big jump in evolution," is driving a spike in new Covid-19 infections in South Africa, scientists said on Thursday.

In the last 36 hours after observing an increase in infections in South Africa's economic hub, the Gauteng province, scientists detected the B1.1.529 variant. So far, 22 positive cases have been identified in South Africa, according to South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases.

Since the onset of the pandemic, a number of variants have emerged. One underlying concern about new variants is whether they will stymie progress against the pandemic or whether they will limit the vaccine's effectiveness. South African scientists will meet with the World Health Organization technical team on Friday, where authorities will assign a letter of the Greek alphabet to this one.

Botswana's health ministry confirmed in a statement that four cases of the new variant were detected in people who were all fully vaccinated. All four were tested before their planned travel. One sample was also detected in Hong Kong, carried by a traveler from South Africa, South African scientists said.

With over 1,200 new infections, South Africa's daily infection rate is much lower than in Germany, where new cases are driving a wave. However, the density of mutations on this new variant raises fears that it could be highly contagious, leading scientists to sound the alarm early.

"This variant did surprise us, it has a big jump in evolution, many more mutations than we expected, especially after a very severe third wave of Delta," said Tulio de Oliveira, director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform.

The B1.1.529 variant has a "very unusual constellation of mutations," with more than 30 mutations in the spike protein alone, said Mr. de Oliveira. On the ACE2 receptor — the protein that helps to create an entry point for the coronavirus to infect human cells — the new variant has 10 mutations. In comparison, the Beta variant has three, the Delta variant has two, said Mr. de Oliveira.

Displaying mutations that might resist neutralization, scientists are also still unclear how effective existing vaccines will be against the new variant. The variant shares similarities with the Lambda and Beta variants, which are associated with an innate evasion of immunity, said Richard Lessells, an infectious diseases specialist at the KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform.

"All these things are what give us some concern that this variant might have not just enhanced transmissibility, so spread more efficiently, but might also be able to get around parts of the immune system and the protection we have in our immune system," said Mr. Lessells.

The new variant has largely been detected among young people, the cohort that also has the lowest vaccination rate in South Africa. Just over a quarter of those ages between 18 and 34 are vaccinated, said Dr. Joe Phaahla, the country's minister of health.

While cases of the new variant are mainly concentrated in the country's economic hub, particularly in the capital Pretoria, it is "only a matter of time" before the virus spreads across the country as schools close and families prepare to travel for the holiday season, said Mr. Phaahla.

Sweet nightmare fuel.  Probably already too late to stop it.

[jesmu84]

It's so nice to remember that our country - as well as a conglomerate of first world countries - decided NOT to waive patent rights on the vaccines, which would have permitted significant production and vaccination across the globe. Which, in turn, would have reduced spread and decreased likelihood of mutations.

Unfettered capitalism baby!

[JWags85]

South Africa's saying the breakthrough cases aren't showing to be severe, FWIW. Could be Delta 2.0?

[The Sultan]

South Africa's saying the breakthrough cases aren't showing to be severe, FWIW. Could be Delta 2.0?

It's also REALLY early in the data collection.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

WHO already changed the name from nu to opinion.

Nu/new variant was already memed to death.

[Billy Hoyle]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59424269

UK putting six African countries back on the red list, and will be instituting hotel quarantine for arrivals.

Will the administration be called racist and xenophobic for putting public safety first with this ban?  Doubtful.

https://twitter.com/DefiantLs/status/1464312822913982471

[The Sultan]

Will the administration be called racist and xenophobic for putting public safety first with this ban?  Doubtful.

https://twitter.com/DefiantLs/status/1464312822913982471

That ban wasn't Covid related. Which you either didn't know, or you did know but just made an apples and oranges comparison for a political point.

Either way it makes you look pretty dumb. 

[reinko]

I've been a Scott Gottleib fan throughout the entirety of the pandemic, of course nothing definitive yet on the severity (if any) of this new variant.

https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1464322510997049346?s=21

[MU82]

I've been a Scott Gottleib fan throughout the entirety of the pandemic, of course nothing definitive yet on the severity (if any) of this new variant.

https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1464322510997049346?s=21

Thanks, reinko. I appreciate Gottlieb, too, and this does give reason for optimism. But it's obviously too early to make any declarations, and this new variant does need to be taken seriously (and Gottlieb isn't saying anything different).

[Skatastrophy]

One infection of the new variant (B.1.1.529) was detected in Belgium. IMO that's that for global spread.

I read a while ago that the US has limited ability to test/identify for new variants, but I'm not sure how true that is.

https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/een-besmetting-met-nieuwe-nu-variant-bevestigd-in-belgie-eerste-geval-in-europa~b6c1932d/

> One infection with the new corona variant B.1.1.529, dubbed the 'now variant', has been confirmed in our country. It concerns an unvaccinated traveler who returned from Egypt and tested positive on November 22. That is what Minister of Health Frank Vandenbroucke (Vooruit) says. "Caution is necessary, but don't panic." This is the first confirmed infection with the variant in Europe.

[Warriors4ever]

A traveler from South Africa doing hotel quarantine in Hong  Kong passed it to another person doing quarantine across the hall. It showed up on the day four test for the first traveler, and the day eight test fir the second one.
Delta did the same in Australia several times.

[Goose]

Gottlieb has been my gold standard guy since the pandemic broke. While I was happy to hear his thoughts on the new variant, the quick decisions made by countries and stock market response has me concerned. The concern level seems far greater than the other variants thus far. Definitely getting my booster next week.

[Hards Alumni]

Gottlieb has been my good standard guy since the pandemic broke. While I was happy to hear his thoughts on the new variant, the quick decisions made by countries and stock market response has me concerned. The concern level seems far greater than the other variants thus far. Definitely getting my booster next week.

Hopefully the vaccines are effective.  Too early to know.

[JWags85]

I was in Belgium yesterday and will be back there tomorrow afternoon, so this will be interesting.  Given I'm 3 shots in and Belgium is heavy handed in their COVID protocol, I'm not overly concerned. 

My colleague told me Belgium instituted all bars and restaurants have a mandatory 11PM closing and no more than 6 per table.

My wife has a work trip 2 days after we get home she's anxious about, but provided we get negative tests before heading back, which I'm sure we will, should be fine

[Warriors4ever]

The US has added Belgium to its Do Not Travel list.
I understand some indoor Christmas Markets are being cancelled.

[jesmu84]

I don't understand the curfew thing. Covid only comes out late at night?

[Hards Alumni]

I don't understand the curfew thing. Covid only comes out late at night?

work is essential, bars, restaurants, parties... not so much.

At least that is my thought process.

BTW the travel bans are stupid.  Either you shut down the borders to the US entirely, or you're wasting your time... assuming it isn't here already.  Which is more than likely is.

[MU82]

I don't understand the curfew thing. Covid only comes out late at night?

The theory is that the later in the night it is, the less inhibited people are, the less likely they are to think even one iota about safety. But yeah, it seems kinda like window dressing.

[Warriors4ever]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59442149

Dozens of people test positive on a flight from South Africa to the Netherlands.

[The Sultan]

It's so nice to remember that our country - as well as a conglomerate of first world countries - decided NOT to waive patent rights on the vaccines, which would have permitted significant production and vaccination across the globe. Which, in turn, would have reduced spread and decreased likelihood of mutations.

Unfettered capitalism baby!

The limits on vaccination in South Africa has been demand...not supply.  They have been turning away shots.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-24/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-as-inoculations-slow

"South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign."

[Warriors4ever]

Yes that is true for South Africa in particular. Their demand has been low. Until this variant, they had a low rate of infection.
Many other countries though need vaccine assistance.

[jesmu84]

The limits on vaccination in South Africa has been demand...not supply.  They have been turning away shots.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-24/exclusive-south-africa-delays-covid-vaccine-deliveries-as-inoculations-slow

"South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign."

Mind providing updates for every other country on earth?

[The Sultan]

Mind providing updates for every other country on earth?

You have the Google.

My point is that vaccine hesitancy is probably a larger problem than vaccine supply.