Omicron variant

[The Sultan]

This isn't good right?

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1467245887357210624?s=21

[GB Warrior]

https://www.fox6now.com/news/covid-omicron-variant-confirmed-among-milwaukee-county-visitors

[pbiflyer]

This isn't good right?

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1467245887357210624?s=21

My opinion:

It looks like he's taking 20 tweets to say that R_t for Omicron is probably about ~3 to 4 in SA, which is comparable to the observed R in the US at the start of the pandemic.

But R_t is not just a function of the virus, it's a property of the virus and its symptoms and characteristics mixed with the properties of the environment in which it exists. SA has low vaccination rates, high density, and a lot of poverty, all of which are going to correlate to higher R. The US as a whole has moderate vaccination rates, with vax rate being high in some areas and low in others, with mixed use of NPIs (usually more use correlating to higher vax rate areas).

I don't know that I'd extrapolate much from R values computed for SA, other than to say that the mitigations being used in places that have managed to get R below 1 should stay in use, and public health agencies should monitor transmission to see if rates are changing and consider increased NPIs if appropriate. But they're already doing that anyway.



J/k about it being my opinion. From a friend who studies this stuff.

[The Sultan]

My opinion:

It looks like he's taking 20 tweets to say that R_t for Omicron is probably about ~3 to 4 in SA, which is comparable to the observed R in the US at the start of the pandemic.

But R_t is not just a function of the virus, it's a property of the virus and its symptoms and characteristics mixed with the properties of the environment in which it exists. SA has low vaccination rates, high density, and a lot of poverty, all of which are going to correlate to higher R. The US as a whole has moderate vaccination rates, with vax rate being high in some areas and low in others, with mixed use of NPIs (usually more use correlating to higher vax rate areas).

I don't know that I'd extrapolate much from R values computed for SA, other than to say that the mitigations being used in places that have managed to get R below 1 should stay in use, and public health agencies should monitor transmission to see if rates are changing and consider increased NPIs if appropriate. But they're already doing that anyway.



J/k about it being my opinion. From a friend who studies this stuff.

OK thank you.  Completely understandable.

[GB Warrior]

My opinion:

It looks like he's taking 20 tweets to say that R_t for Omicron is probably about ~3 to 4 in SA, which is comparable to the observed R in the US at the start of the pandemic.

But R_t is not just a function of the virus, it's a property of the virus and its symptoms and characteristics mixed with the properties of the environment in which it exists. SA has low vaccination rates, high density, and a lot of poverty, all of which are going to correlate to higher R. The US as a whole has moderate vaccination rates, with vax rate being high in some areas and low in others, with mixed use of NPIs (usually more use correlating to higher vax rate areas).

I don't know that I'd extrapolate much from R values computed for SA, other than to say that the mitigations being used in places that have managed to get R below 1 should stay in use, and public health agencies should monitor transmission to see if rates are changing and consider increased NPIs if appropriate. But they're already doing that anyway.



J/k about it being my opinion. From a friend who studies this stuff.

Thank you

[forgetful]

My opinion:

It looks like he's taking 20 tweets to say that R_t for Omicron is probably about ~3 to 4 in SA, which is comparable to the observed R in the US at the start of the pandemic.

But R_t is not just a function of the virus, it's a property of the virus and its symptoms and characteristics mixed with the properties of the environment in which it exists. SA has low vaccination rates, high density, and a lot of poverty, all of which are going to correlate to higher R. The US as a whole has moderate vaccination rates, with vax rate being high in some areas and low in others, with mixed use of NPIs (usually more use correlating to higher vax rate areas).

I don't know that I'd extrapolate much from R values computed for SA, other than to say that the mitigations being used in places that have managed to get R below 1 should stay in use, and public health agencies should monitor transmission to see if rates are changing and consider increased NPIs if appropriate. But they're already doing that anyway.

J/k about it being my opinion. From a friend who studies this stuff.

While I understand the logic, I'm not sure how much that rationale in the 2nd paragraph makes sense. The R values for Delta were about the same in SA and the US, so it would imply they might be a good and comparable model. Also, Omicron is looking like it is 2x as likely to spread as Delta (not good news), that is a property of the variant, so would be retained regardless of whether it is located.

I agree though, that this does indicate that mitigation procedures need to remain in place.

The good news though, so far it does not appear that Omicron is more likely to cause severe disease, and maybe is results in milder cases. Still too early to really make any broad claims in that regard, but that could be a bright spot.

[pbiflyer]

I think he's saying you can't really draw much from that limited data. Using it to extrapolate worldwide isn't valid. I don't think he's drawing conclusions other than that.

[pbiflyer]

Some potentially good news coming from South Africa.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Paq17X6ucQ

[4everwarriors]

#1 on the best seller list....

"Real Anthony Fauci."

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Pablum for morons

[tower912]

#1 on the best seller list....

"Real Anthony Fauci."

What happened?   You bought a ton of them and are handing them out with the toothbrush, miniature tube of Crest, and dental floss?

[Uncle Rico]

What happened?   You bought a ton of them and are handing them out with the toothbrush, miniature tube of Crest, and dental floss?

RNC bought them

[tower912]

As with so many things in life, the nature of the attacks on Fauci reveal far more about the characters and mindsets of the buffoons making them than they do about Fauci.   

[The Sultan]

As with so many things in life, the nature of the attacks on Fauci reveal far more about the characters and mindsets of the buffoons making them than they do about Fauci.   

Yep.  Of all the people to target for blame during the pandemic, I have no idea why he is enemy #1 for some people.  (Well, I do know why, but yeah...)

[pbiflyer]

Yep.  Of all the people to target for blame during the pandemic, I have no idea why he is enemy #1 for some people.  (Well, I do know why, but yeah...)

It just makes sense.

[JWags85]

Devils advocate...outside of the lunatics and aggressively partisan hacks, right or wrong, I think he's become the scapegoat/embodiment of the need to put a talking head out there to give updates on the virus daily, which leads to changing opinions/facts/statements as data and science developments change.

Also, as Ive said before, medical professionals by nature are extremely cautious and conservative when it comes to things like this.  Public policy/risk control/assessment are very different than a doctor/scientist whose goal is some form of COVID zero.  So their statements can come off really poorly to normal people.

But people who think Fauci is a boogeyman are dumb, but then so are the ones putting him on t shirts and deifying him.  But I guess at least they don't think he should be arrested.

[The Sultan]

Devils advocate...outside of the lunatics and aggressively partisan hacks, right or wrong, I think he's become the scapegoat/embodiment of the need to put a talking head out there to give updates on the virus daily, which leads to changing opinions/facts/statements as data and science developments change.

Also, as Ive said before, medical professionals by nature are extremely cautious and conservative when it comes to things like this.  Public policy/risk control/assessment are very different than a doctor/scientist whose goal is some form of COVID zero.  So they're statements can come off really poorly to normal people.

But people who think Fauci is a boogeyman are dumb, but then so are the ones putting him on t shirts and deifying him.  But I guess at least they don't think he should be arrested.

This is a good take.  But I haven't seen a lot of Fauci deification recently, and most of that was just because Trump handled it all so poorly to begin with.

Anyway, I just read a summary of the book our fair dentist is promoting...and hoo boy...it checks all of the boxes.

[Hards Alumni]

This is a good take.  But I haven't seen a lot of Fauci deification recently, and most of that was just because Trump handled it all so poorly to begin with.

Anyway, I just read a summary of the book our fair dentist is promoting...and hoo boy...it checks all of the boxes.

Don't worry, they're not reading it.  They're just showing their circle of psychos that they own it.  Have to maintain the appearance.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

"The person who writes for fools is always sure of a large audience."

—Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860), German philosopher and author, "Religion: A Dialogue and Other Essays," 1851.

[MU82]

But I guess at least they don't think he should be arrested.

Or hung.

[tower912]

"The person who writes for fools is always sure of a large audience."

—Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860), German philosopher and author, "Religion: A Dialogue and Other Essays," 1851.

I have never made but one prayer to God and it is a short one.  "O Lord, make my enemies ridiculous"   And he has granted it.   

Voltaire. 

[GB Warrior]

Devils advocate...outside of the lunatics and aggressively partisan hacks, right or wrong, I think he's become the scapegoat/embodiment of the need to put a talking head out there to give updates on the virus daily, which leads to changing opinions/facts/statements as data and science developments change.

Also, as Ive said before, medical professionals by nature are extremely cautious and conservative when it comes to things like this.  Public policy/risk control/assessment are very different than a doctor/scientist whose goal is some form of COVID zero.  So their statements can come off really poorly to normal people.

But people who think Fauci is a boogeyman are dumb, but then so are the ones putting him on t shirts and deifying him.  But I guess at least they don't think he should be arrested.

Yes. I think there is naturally some frustration with things that he (or others) have said from a position of authority that have proven to be wrong/inaccurate by (get this) the science as it evolves, but it's in part because he's been forced into this public-facing public policy role that really was not part of his original mandate prior to the Biden Administration. Public Health and Public Policy need to work hand-in-hand, and there is some translation of the former that needs to happen to make it accessible and meaningful to the lay person.

The Trump Administration had no policy, and Biden has stepped on the rake himself (the grand re-opening this summer was a huge miss and resulted in whiplash with Delta emerging not long after), and Fauci is the victim of having to explain all of this as if it was some strategic and thought-out endeavor.

[4everwarriors]

Yep.  Of all the people to target for blame during the pandemic, I have no idea why he is enemy #1 for some people.  (Well, I do know why, but yeah...)

Yeah butt, how due ewe 'splain awey dat da book wuz ritten bye won of yo own, Bobby Kennedy, hey?

[Uncle Rico]

Yeah butt, how due ewe 'splain awey dat da book wuz ritten bye won of yo own, Bobby Kennedy, hey?

You don't.  He's an idiot.  Next.

[The Sultan]

Yeah butt, how due ewe 'splain awey dat da book wuz ritten bye won of yo own, Bobby Kennedy, hey?

I have no idea what you mean by "one of my own."  He's an anti-science idiot and has been one for a long time.