Vaccinations & Antibodies

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vaccine-protection-covid-19-natural-immunity-cdc-study/

Vaccinations offer more protection than natural immunity.  Hope we can put that talking point to rest.

[wheresthecake?]

The CDC hits a new low
Alex Berenson   19 min ago   
41
(I didn’t think it was possible either.)

But yesterday the Centers for Disease Control, America’s not-at-all-politicized public health agency, released a new study purporting to show that vaccination protects against Covid infection better than natural immunity. Of course, a wave of stories about the benefits of mRNA vaccination followed.

To do this, the CDC used some magic statistical analysis to turn inside raw data that actually showed almost four times as many fully vaccinated people being hospitalized with Covid as those with natural immunity - and FIFTEEN TIMES as many over the summer.

I kid you not.

Further, the study runs contrary to a much larger paper from Israeli researchers in August.

As my two-year-old likes to say, How dey do dat?

Well, the Israeli study drew on a meaningful dataset in a meaningful way to reach meaningful conclusions. It counted infections (and hospitalizations) in a large group of previously infected people against an equally large and balanced group of vaccinated people, then made moderate adjustments for clearly defined risk factors.

It found that vaccinated people were 13 times as likely to be infected - and 7 times as likely to be hospitalized - as unvaccinated people with natural immunity.


(SOURCE: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full-text)

-

In contrast - how do I put this politely? - the CDC study is meaningless gibberish that would never have been published if the agency did not face huge political pressure to get people vaccinated.

Let’s take a look.

The study had a bizarre design.

The agency’s researchers looked at 200,000 people who had been hospitalized with “Covid-like” illnesses from January through August in nine states. Right away, this choice sets up the study in a problematic way; for most of that time, people who had received Covid vaccines believed (because the CDC and others told them) that they were at VERY low risk of getting Covid, and certainly symptomatic Covid. Thus they may have been less likely to go to the hospital at all, or be tested for Covid once they arrived.

But put that aside.

Then the researchers decided to compare two groups - people who had definitely had Covid at least 90 days before and received another Covid test around the time of their hospitalization and people who had been fully vaccinated at least 90 days (but no more than 180 days) before and received a Covid test around the time of their hospitalization.

This choice is also bizarre. Those of you who have been paying attention will know that this date range is designed to make the vaccines look as good as possible by testing in the happy vaccine valley, the short period when mRNA vaccines are at maximum effectiveness (in fact, they are probably starting to lose it by the sixth month).

But more importantly, this criteria excluded the VAST majority of the people hospitalized with Covid-like illnesses or tested for Covid.

Only about 1,000 people out of the 200,000 people hospitalized for Covid-like illnesses over the eight months had a previous documented Covid infection. (Given the fact that at least 20 percent of Americans, and probably more like 40 percent, had had Covid by the spring of 2021, this is a strikingly small percentage - and certainly doesn’t suggest long Covid is much of a threat.)

And only 89 of those 1,020 people with natural immunity tested positive. In contrast, 324 out of the 6,328 vaccinated people who met the study’s criteria tested positive.

But isn’t 324 more than 89?

It sure is. And the CDC didn’t have - or didn’t publish - figures on how many people were actually in the two groups - those with natural immunity and those infected. Instead it compared the PERCENTAGE OF POSITIVE TESTS in the two groups.

But why would the percentage of positive tests matter, when we don’t know how many people were actually at risk?

Great question.

But, amazingly, the statistical manipulation then got even worse.

The natural immunity group had an 8.7 percent positive test rate. The fully vaccinated group had a 5.1 percent positive test rate. So the natural immunity group was about 1.7 times as likely to test positive. (1.7 * 5.1 = about 8.7.)

With such a small number of people in the natural immunity group, that raw “rate ratio” may well have failed to reach statistical significance. (We don’t know, because the CDC didn’t provide an unadjusted odds ratio with 95% boundaries - something I have never seen before in any paper.)

Instead, the CDC provided only a risk ratio that it had adjusted with a variety of factors, including “facility characteristics [and] sociodemographic characteristics.”

And finally, the CDC’s researchers got a number that they could publish - hospitalized people who had previously been infected were five times as likely to have a positive Covid test as people who were fully vaccinated. Never mind that there were actually four times as many people in the second group.

Science!

By the way, buried at the bottom of report is some actual data. And it’s bad.

The CDC divided the hospitalizations into pre- and post-Delta - January through June and June through August.


Interestingly, the number of hospitalized people with natural immunity actually fell sharply over the summer, as Delta took off. About 14 people per month were hospitalized in the winter and spring, compared to six per month from June through August. (Remember, this is a large sample, with hospitals in nine states.)

But the number of VACCINATED people being hospitalized soared - from about three a month during the spring to more than 100 a month during the Delta period. These vaccinated people still were less than 180 days from their second dose, so they should have been at or near maximum immunity - suggesting that Delta, and not the time effect, played an important role in the loss of protection the vaccine offered.

Now that’s a finding worth pursuing.

Don’t worry, the CDC will get right on it.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Isn’t Alex Berenson a mystery writer?

I guess we should see what Stephen King thinks of the study too!

[jesmu84]

Isn’t Alex Berenson a mystery writer?

I guess we should see what Stephen King thinks of the study too!

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/04/pandemics-wrongest-man/618475/

[TSmith34, Inc.]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/04/pandemics-wrongest-man/618475/

Thanks for posting. Berenson has been horribly, awfully wrong about EVERYTHING to do with the pandemic. You can rest assured that reality is the opposite of everything he has proclaimed.

[forgetful]

Thanks for posting. Berenson has been horribly, awfully wrong about EVERYTHING to do with the pandemic. You can rest assured that reality is the opposite of everything he has proclaimed.

Agreed. I'm now dumber for reading the post above by wheresthecake.

[jficke13]

I'm actually glad Wheresthecake posted that by Berensen. It tells me everything I need to know about Wheresthecake. It's helpful when people loudly and clearly demonstrate they have nothing of value to offer the conversation and can be safely ignored.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

But the sad thing is that people like him are hoodwinked by people like Berenson.

Just get vaccinated.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

But the sad thing is that people like him are hoodwinked by people like Berenson.

Just get vaccinated.

Hoodwinked is a great description. I think Berenson knows better but he is making bank playing to the morons that watch Fox News.

[Jockey]

Maybe Cake could do us small a favor and give us OAN’s opinion as well.   

[🏀]

https://twitter.com/TristanSnell/status/1455258984772997120

This isn't about you. Either get with it or get the unnatural carnal knowledge out of the way.

[jficke13]

Wait, you're telling me it was an entirely fabricated moral panic designed mostly to drive traffic to media sites and also to engender sympathy for police unions? Nooooooo. Not possible.

[pacearrow02]

https://brownstone.org/articles/a-review-and-autopsy-of-two-covid-immunity-studies/

“Concerning the Covid recovered, there are two key public health issues. 1. Would the Covid recovered benefit from also being vaccinated? 2. Should there be vaccine passports and mandates that require them to be vaccinated in order to work and participate in society?

The CDC study did not address the first question, while the Israeli study showed a small but not statistically significant benefit in reducing symptomatic Covid disease. Future studies will hopefully shed more light on this issue.

Based on the solid evidence from the Israeli study, the Covid recovered have stronger and longer-lasting immunity against Covid disease than the vaccinated. Hence, there is no reason to prevent them from activities that are permitted to the vaccinated. In fact, it is discriminatory.

Many of the Covid recovered were exposed to the virus as essential workers during the height of the pandemic before vaccines were available. They kept the rest of society afloat, processing food, delivering goods, unloading ships, picking up garbage, policing the streets, maintaining the electricity network, putting out fires, and caring for the old and sick, to name a few.

They are now being fired and excluded despite having stronger immunity than the vaccinated work-from-home administrators that are firing them.”

———————————————————————

Per usual truth is found somewhere in between the Berenson take and the scoop take. 

[Uncle Rico]

https://brownstone.org/articles/a-review-and-autopsy-of-two-covid-immunity-studies/

“Concerning the Covid recovered, there are two key public health issues. 1. Would the Covid recovered benefit from also being vaccinated? 2. Should there be vaccine passports and mandates that require them to be vaccinated in order to work and participate in society?

The CDC study did not address the first question, while the Israeli study showed a small but not statistically significant benefit in reducing symptomatic Covid disease. Future studies will hopefully shed more light on this issue.

Based on the solid evidence from the Israeli study, the Covid recovered have stronger and longer-lasting immunity against Covid disease than the vaccinated. Hence, there is no reason to prevent them from activities that are permitted to the vaccinated. In fact, it is discriminatory.

Many of the Covid recovered were exposed to the virus as essential workers during the height of the pandemic before vaccines were available. They kept the rest of society afloat, processing food, delivering goods, unloading ships, picking up garbage, policing the streets, maintaining the electricity network, putting out fires, and caring for the old and sick, to name a few.

They are now being fired and excluded despite having stronger immunity than the vaccinated work-from-home administrators that are firing them.”

———————————————————————

Per usual truth is found somewhere in between the Berenson take and the scoop take.

Why are you getting covid advice on scoop?  Why are you getting covid advice from Alex Berenson.  The only conclusion I can surmise is, you’re not very bright.

[pacearrow02]

Why are you getting covid advice on scoop?  Why are you getting covid advice from Alex Berenson.  The only conclusion I can surmise is, you’re not very bright.

Ok??

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

https://brownstone.org/articles/a-review-and-autopsy-of-two-covid-immunity-studies/

“Concerning the Covid recovered, there are two key public health issues. 1. Would the Covid recovered benefit from also being vaccinated? 2. Should there be vaccine passports and mandates that require them to be vaccinated in order to work and participate in society?

The CDC study did not address the first question, while the Israeli study showed a small but not statistically significant benefit in reducing symptomatic Covid disease. Future studies will hopefully shed more light on this issue.

Based on the solid evidence from the Israeli study, the Covid recovered have stronger and longer-lasting immunity against Covid disease than the vaccinated. Hence, there is no reason to prevent them from activities that are permitted to the vaccinated. In fact, it is discriminatory.

Many of the Covid recovered were exposed to the virus as essential workers during the height of the pandemic before vaccines were available. They kept the rest of society afloat, processing food, delivering goods, unloading ships, picking up garbage, policing the streets, maintaining the electricity network, putting out fires, and caring for the old and sick, to name a few.

They are now being fired and excluded despite having stronger immunity than the vaccinated work-from-home administrators that are firing them.”

———————————————————————

Per usual truth is found somewhere in between the Berenson take and the scoop take. 

Yes.  I am sure that one of the early advocates for going the route of herd immunity is a great resource on the effectiveness of vaccines v. those in Covid recovery.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrington_Declaration

And anyway, what exactly is the point?  Regardless of whether or not Covid recovery gives you some modest degree of protection, vaccinations are safe, cheap and easy.  I'm getting my booster tomorrow and its expected to take ten minutes out of my day.  I get the flu shot every year even though I have gotten the flu in the past.

This hill people keep dying on with Covid is getting dumber and dumber by the minute.  You'd think that people who have been continuously wrong would stop making stands at some point...

[Uncle Rico]

Yes.  I am sure that one of the early advocates for going the route of herd immunity is a great resource on the effectiveness of vaccines v. those in Covid recovery.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrington_Declaration

And anyway, what exactly is the point?  Regardless of whether or not Covid recovery gives you some modest degree of protection, vaccinations are safe, cheap and easy.  I'm getting my booster tomorrow and its expected to take ten minutes out of my day.  I get the flu shot every year even though I have gotten the flu in the past.

This hill people keep dying on with Covid is getting dumber and dumber by the minute.  You'd think that people who have been continuously wrong would stop making stands at some point...

Some insist their ignorance outweighs the greater good

[pacearrow02]

Yes.  I am sure that one of the early advocates for going the route of herd immunity is a great resource on the effectiveness of vaccines v. those in Covid recovery.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrington_Declaration

And anyway, what exactly is the point?  Regardless of whether or not Covid recovery gives you some modest degree of protection, vaccinations are safe, cheap and easy.  I'm getting my booster tomorrow and its expected to take ten minutes out of my day.  I get the flu shot every year even though I have gotten the flu in the past.

This hill people keep dying on with Covid is getting dumber and dumber by the minute.  You'd think that people who have been continuously wrong would stop making stands at some point...

Well the data points to the people who you suggest being wrong might not actually be wrong.  The point is the mandates and restrictions being put on folks who either have natural antibodies or who don’t but have personally determined they are very low risk for severe disease and for whatever reason are hesitant to take the vaccine but are being treated as second class citizens.

The flu shot is not mandated by schools, by most employers, and is taken by 50-60% of the population annually so if you want the Covid vaccine to be viewed and treated similarly to the flu shot then let it be, that’s all I’ve been arguing for.  I take the annual flu shot, I’m fully vaccinated for Covid because I made those decisions and felt they were best for me.  But there are no flu shot passports, mandates, etc so why should there be Covid ones?

[Pakuni]

But there are no flu shot passports, mandates, etc so why should there be Covid ones?

Only really dumb people still try to equate COVID to the flu.

[Galway Eagle]

Well the data points to the people who you suggest being wrong might not actually be wrong.  The point is the mandates and restrictions being put on folks who either have natural antibodies or who don’t but have personally determined they are very low risk for severe disease and for whatever reason are hesitant to take the vaccine but are being treated as second class citizens.

The flu shot is not mandated by schools, by most employers, and is taken by 50-60% of the population annually so if you want the Covid vaccine to be viewed and treated similarly to the flu shot then let it be, that’s all I’ve been arguing for.  I take the annual flu shot, I’m fully vaccinated for Covid because I made those decisions and felt they were best for me.  But there are no flu shot passports, mandates, etc so why should there be Covid ones?

Good let's get back to comparing Covid to the flu. Is it march 2020 again? Because I'd really like to have held my shares of novavax and invest in dogecoin

[jficke13]

Well the data points to the people who you suggest being wrong might not actually be wrong.  The point is the mandates and restrictions being put on folks who either have natural antibodies or who don’t but have personally determined they are very low risk for severe disease and for whatever reason are hesitant to take the vaccine but are being treated as second class citizens.

The flu shot is not mandated by schools, by most employers, and is taken by 50-60% of the population annually so if you want the Covid vaccine to be viewed and treated similarly to the flu shot then let it be, that’s all I’ve been arguing for.  I take the annual flu shot, I’m fully vaccinated for Covid because I made those decisions and felt they were best for me.  But there are no flu shot passports, mandates, etc so why should there be Covid ones?

There should be.

There are mandates for MMR vaccines. Being anti-mandate simply makes you a useful idiot for Machiavellian actors in our political system who do not care what the impact on society or lives is so long as they have a winning wedge issue.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Many of the Covid recovered were exposed to the virus as essential workers during the height of the pandemic before vaccines were available. They kept the rest of society afloat, processing food, delivering goods, unloading ships, picking up garbage, policing the streets, maintaining the electricity network, putting out fires, and caring for the old and sick, to name a few.

They are now being fired and excluded despite having stronger immunity than the vaccinated work-from-home administrators that are firing them.”
 

This is awesome, characterizing Joe Sixpack that's against a vaccine "cuz microchips etc." alongside the frontline workers <clap>

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Trolls gonna troll. Promoting vaccine hesitancy. The strategy has certainly worked for the right wing. Well, except for the dead ones.

[warriorchick]

Okay, which one of you anti vax A-holes gave Covid to Aaron Rodgers?

[pbiflyer]

Okay, which one of you anti vax A-holes gave Covid to Aaron Rodgers?

Pretty sure it was a Bears fan.