More conference realignment talk

[Scoop Snoop]

I appreciate you taking the time to lay this all out Brew, but your insistence on relying upon data really screws up some interesting arguments. 

[El Guerrero 2]

Shoot, sometimes when people don't respond to your arguments it is because they are dumb and don't merit a response.

The bottom line is that VCU is clearly a tier below the Big East programs, has no history of prestige or success, doesn't add any dollars or eyeballs, best case scenario would be Butler-lite, and can be added at literally any point between now and the end of time. Those are the reasons Val hasn't made that call for a decade.

And so, back to the original point, if the theory is that VCU is leaking stories about joining the AAC in order to put pressure on the Big East, they would be better served by raising their basketball profile to something akin to Gonzaga in order to really make themselves an attractive add. Otherwise, they're just a serviceable Plan B in case of emergency. 

[Uncle Rico]

Let's make this simple, no expansion unless it's Gonzaga and the league adds westward ho.

[The Sultan]

Actually you are projecting the opposite about being argumentative.

Yes. The one who constantly gets in arguments around here is clearly not being argumentative.

Shoot, sometimes when people don't respond to your arguments it is because they are dumb and don't merit a response.

Or because they always devolve into something like this topic has devolved into.

[shoothoops]

VCU would be a fine addition. Not great, not a must-add, but not terrible. I looked back at the history, 10 years before joining the Big East and 10 years since. Here are the numbers for our additions:

Butler
10-year kenpom average BEFORE: 61.5
10-year kenpom average AFTER: 65.1
10-year kenpom range BEFORE: 12-145
10-year kenpom range AFTER: 20-121
10-year NCAA Appearances BEFORE: 6
10-year NCAA Appearances AFTER: 5 (including 2020)

Creighton
10-year kenpom average BEFORE: 58.2
10-year kenpom average AFTER: 34.5
10-year kenpom finish range BEFORE: 15-116
10-year kenpom finish range AFTER: 12-79
10-year NCAA Appearances BEFORE: 4
10-year NCAA Appearances AFTER: 7 (including 2020)

Xavier
10-year kenpom average BEFORE: 41.0
10-year kenpom average AFTER: 37.7
10-year kenpom finish range BEFORE: 15-81
10-year kenpom finish range AFTER: 14-66
10-year NCAA Appearances BEFORE: 6
10-year NCAA Appearances AFTER: 5

VCU
10-year kenpom average: 56.4
10-year kenpom range: 25-144
10-year NCAA Appearances: 7

Generally, it seems that programs stay mostly what they are. There might be a case for some slight average improvement, but really the consistent difference is that joining the league is a floor-raiser. Considering how much an outlier that 144 is for VCU (their next worse was 73) my guess is they would consistently be a middle of the pack Big East team. Generally in the 20-70 range, competing for at-large berths most years but not really a league title threat very often. Certainly a fine addition, and a better program than some that are here now, but not one that is a must-add by any means.

When you look more closely, there's more to explain the nunbers.

Creighton's numbers are obviously different. And of course they won the BE league.

Marquette would have 4 years of Deane and 6 years of Crean for their 10 years prior data vs 10 years of Crean and Buzz after.

And Butler of course had a 28 and 31 KenPom in the 2 seasons before the prior 10 years.

With Xavier is shows the difference between Miller and Mack vs Mack and Steele. Miller already has a better finish in one league season vs 4 of Steele's.

VCU had 5 head coaches during the above used time frame for example.

[shoothoops]

Yes. The one who constantly gets in arguments around here is clearly not being argumentative.


Or because they always devolve into something like this topic has devolved into.

Projecting 10,142 posts later. You took a discussion about being dismissive and snobby about basketball and you tried to make it about me. You do this often.

But I do appreciate you illustrating the point in your previous post. Thanks.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

VCU would be a fine addition. Not great, not a must-add, but not terrible. I looked back at the history, 10 years before joining the Big East and 10 years since. Here are the numbers for our additions:

Butler
10-year kenpom average BEFORE: 61.5
10-year kenpom average AFTER: 65.1
10-year kenpom range BEFORE: 12-145
10-year kenpom range AFTER: 20-121
10-year NCAA Appearances BEFORE: 6
10-year NCAA Appearances AFTER: 5 (including 2020)

Creighton
10-year kenpom average BEFORE: 58.2
10-year kenpom average AFTER: 34.5
10-year kenpom finish range BEFORE: 15-116
10-year kenpom finish range AFTER: 12-79
10-year NCAA Appearances BEFORE: 4
10-year NCAA Appearances AFTER: 7 (including 2020)

Xavier
10-year kenpom average BEFORE: 41.0
10-year kenpom average AFTER: 37.7
10-year kenpom finish range BEFORE: 15-81
10-year kenpom finish range AFTER: 14-66
10-year NCAA Appearances BEFORE: 6
10-year NCAA Appearances AFTER: 5

VCU
10-year kenpom average: 56.4
10-year kenpom range: 25-144
10-year NCAA Appearances: 7

Generally, it seems that programs stay mostly what they are. There might be a case for some slight average improvement, but really the consistent difference is that joining the league is a floor-raiser. Considering how much an outlier that 144 is for VCU (their next worse was 73) my guess is they would consistently be a middle of the pack Big East team. Generally in the 20-70 range, competing for at-large berths most years but not really a league title threat very often. Certainly a fine addition, and a better program than some that are here now, but not one that is a must-add by any means.

You forgot to mention ABD.

[The Sultan]

Projecting 10,142 posts later.

I'm self-aware enough to know I'm argumentative.

[GoldenWarrior11]

By unconfirmed rumors, Georgetown was blocking VCU from serious consideration in 2012/2013 (likely due to geography).  Wonder if that would still be the case. 

VCU has some strong metrics.  They are a basketball-first athletic department with a sustained successful run of regularly competing for NCAAT appearances; although outside of Shaka, they have not made it to the second weekend.  Ever.  They have very nice and new(er) facilities, with a capacity of just under 8k (it would be the smallest full-time arena in the Big East).  Richmond is outside the top-50 in TV markets, and averages just under 7k per game (it would bring down the average home attendance per game in the BE); thus I'm not sure what it really adds from the fan/viewership column.  Each of their past five head coaches (Capel, Grant, Smart, Wade, Rhoades) have made the NCAAT.

Is VCU worth adding for #12?  I'd argue no.  If they were part of a larger expansion grouping, I could see them as #14 or #16. 

[Uncle Rico]

By unconfirmed rumors, Georgetown was blocking VCU from serious consideration in 2012/2013 (likely due to geography).  Wonder if that would still be the case. 

VCU has some strong metrics.  They are a basketball-first athletic department with a sustained successful run of regularly competing for NCAAT appearances; although outside of Shaka, they have not made it to the second weekend.  Ever.  They have very nice and new(er) facilities, with a capacity of just under 8k (it would be the smallest full-time arena in the Big East).  Richmond is outside the top-50 in TV markets, and averages just under 7k per game (it would bring down the average home attendance per game in the BE); thus I'm not sure what it really adds from the fan/viewership column.  Each of their past five head coaches (Capel, Grant, Smart, Wade, Rhoades) have made the NCAAT.

Is VCU worth adding for #12?  I'd argue no.  If they were part of a larger expansion grouping, I could see them as #14 or #16.

100%

[shoothoops]

Shoot, sometimes when people don't respond to your arguments it is because they are dumb and don't merit a response.

The bottom line is that VCU is clearly a tier below the Big East programs, has no history of prestige or success, doesn't add any dollars or eyeballs, best case scenario would be Butler-lite, and can be added at literally any point between now and the end of time. Those are the reasons Val hasn't made that call for a decade.

And so, back to the original point, if the theory is that VCU is leaking stories about joining the AAC in order to put pressure on the Big East, they would be better served by raising their basketball profile to something akin to Gonzaga in order to really make themselves an attractive add. Otherwise, they're just a serviceable Plan B in case of emergency.

Lol. This is what someone says when they are unable to back up their claims. And the funny part is I merely responded to each of your initial claims specifically.

The point was and still is the insecure snobby dismissiveness. It never was about VCU specifically.

[El Guerrero 2]

Lol. This is what someone says when they are unable to back up their claims. And the funny part is I merely responded to each of your initial claims specifically.

The point was and still is the insecure snobby dismissiveness. It never was about VCU specifically.

Defending the honor of VCU on a Marquette message board is an odd hill to die on, but you do you.

[MUfan12]

Wow... all that and it wasn't even SLU.

[Uncle Rico]

Wow... all that and it wasn't even SLU.

The word proxy comes to mind.

[shoothoops]

Everyone telling on themselves in the replies.

Tribe gonna tribe.

[shoothoops]

Defending the honor of VCU on a Marquette message board is an odd hill to die on, but you do you.

Amazing how little you understood about the conversation.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Marquette entered the Big East from Conference USA.

I don't understand how this relates to what I posted. Marquette left CUSA to come to the Big East because the Big East was/is a better conference. VCU would do the same now because the Big East is a better conference. I alsob think that VCU would be successful in the Big East because of the advantages they would gain from being in the Big East.

[shoothoops]

I don't understand how this relates to what I posted. Marquette left CUSA to come to the Big East because the Big East was/is a better conference. VCU would do the same now because the Big East is a better conference. I alsob think that VCU would be successful in the Big East because of the advantages they would gain from being in the Big East.

I don't disagree with this post.

[lawdog77]

Just trying to figure out what VCU adds to the conference, except as a Plan B if someone poacehes UConn.

[Viper]

I'm self-aware enough to know I'm argumentative.

😳

[The Sultan]

Just trying to figure out what VCU adds to the conference, except as a Plan B if someone poacehes UConn.

The only thing it adds is additional content for a media provider. And it may be the best option available if the Zags aren't interested and schools like Syracuse stick with football.

If indeed additional content is something a media partner might want.

[El Guerrero 2]

Amazing how little you understood about the conversation.

I don't think you actually have a point other than saying that Marquette fans are bad for thinking Marquette is a better program than VCU. Talk about a COLE perspective.

You certainly haven't made any case for why the Big East should add VCU.   

[shoothoops]

I don't think you actually have a point other than saying that Marquette fans are bad for thinking Marquette is a better program than VCU. Talk about a COLE perspective.

You certainly haven't made any case for why the Big East should add VCU.

This post is factually incorrect. Again, similar to before, you have a tendency to make things up and you offer zero evidence to support it.

[Uncle Rico]

VCU sucks

[lawdog77]

VCU sucks

F Commonwealths.