More conference realignment talk

[Not A Serious Person]

My thought is that you were wrong about the Longhorn Network and Texas going off on their own.  Furthermore, the big schools seem to be perfectly happy to continue to align with one another in conferences and don't believe, as you stated above, that they are making mistake in doing so.

And if these points of evidence are the basis of your thesis, I would say you are mistaken and the current model isn't changing anytime soon.

We'll see how long this model lasts. Selling conference TV rights is asking people to pay for things they do not want. It worked in the cable world because the technology did not exist to allow you to only pay for only what you wanted to watch. Streaming now makes a la carte pricing, down to the show or game, a reality.

And Texas did go off with the Longhorn network for 11 years. Now they are ending it and going into a superconference; you're assuming this is a good LONG TERM deal for them. If I'm right about a la carte pricing, Texas is making a big mistake.

[ATL MU Warrior]

We'll see how long this model lasts. Selling conference TV rights is asking people to pay for things they do not want. It worked in the cable world because the technology did not exist to allow you to only pay for only what you wanted to watch. Streaming now makes a la carte pricing, down to the show or game, a reality.

And Texas did go off with the Longhorn network for 11 years. Now they are ending it and going into a superconference; you're assuming this is a good LONG TERM deal for them. If I'm right about a la carte pricing, Texas is making a big mistake.

You are not right about a la carte pricing.

The reason why college sports is such a valuable property is because schools are bundled into conferences and therefore draw huge audiences from multiple fanbases across large geographies.  When you can bundle together the fanbases of Alabama and Florida and Tennessee, etc. you are reaching a mass audience and can charge a very large amount of money to advertisers (who love to reach large engaged audiences in live viewing environments).  If each school is on their own, the number of viewers of their content is a tiny fraction of what it was, and the value of that audience to advertisers is diminished. 

[muwarrior69]

You are not right about a la carte pricing.

The reason why college sports is such a valuable property is because schools are bundled into conferences and therefore draw huge audiences from multiple fanbases across large geographies.  When you can bundle together the fanbases of Alabama and Florida and Tennessee, etc. you are reaching a mass audience and can charge a very large amount of money to advertisers (who love to reach large engaged audiences in live viewing environments).  If each school is on their own, the number of viewers of their content is a tiny fraction of what it was, and the value of that audience to advertisers is diminished.

I agree with your assessment, but Notre Dame football appears to be at the moment the exception. Full disclosure, I have not watched a college football game in years. The reason I don't watch is that no Football Team not in the P5 will ever have a chance at a National Title, which is why the NCAA Basketball tournament is truly a National tournament; even a little School like St. Peters has a chance. I am sure the greedy state schools and media buddies will eventually wreck that too.

[Oldgym]

A la carte pricing or smaller bundles have always been something the providers *could* have done. They didn't because they didn't have to. The delivery mechanism is changing quickly, but so far the model has not. The LHN may have worked at UT as a means to an end. A Golden Eagle Network would not be viable.

You are not right about a la carte pricing.

The reason why college sports is such a valuable property is because schools are bundled into conferences and therefore draw huge audiences from multiple fanbases across large geographies.  When you can bundle together the fanbases of Alabama and Florida and Tennessee, etc. you are reaching a mass audience and can charge a very large amount of money to advertisers (who love to reach large engaged audiences in live viewing environments).  If each school is on their own, the number of viewers of their content is a tiny fraction of what it was, and the value of that audience to advertisers is diminished.

100% correct. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I agree with your assessment, but Notre Dame football appears to be at the moment the exception. Full disclosure, I have not watched a college football game in years. The reason I don't watch is that no Football Team not in the P5 will ever have a chance at a National Title, which is why the NCAA Basketball tournament is truly a National tournament; even a little School like St. Peters has a chance. I am sure the greedy state schools will eventually wreck that too.

But Notre Dame makes significantly less on their football media deal then each B10 and SEC school makes on theirs.

And Cincinnati made the CFP just last year.

[Galway Eagle]

But Notre Dame makes significantly less on their football media deal then each B10 and SEC school makes on theirs.

And Cincinnati made the CFP just last year.

Huh?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Huh?

Are we being picky? Cincinnati made the College Football Playoff at the end of the 2021 season. A team "not in the P5."

[Galway Eagle]

Are we being picky? Cincinnati made the College Football Playoff at the end of the 2021 season. A team "not in the P5."

Oh, I genuinely didn't know they made it in 21 but knew they didn't this past season and was confused. Thanks.

[Not A Serious Person]

You are not right about a la carte pricing.

The reason why college sports is such a valuable property is because schools are bundled into conferences and therefore draw huge audiences from multiple fanbases across large geographies.  When you can bundle together the fanbases of Alabama and Florida and Tennessee, etc. you are reaching a mass audience and can charge a very large amount of money to advertisers (who love to reach large engaged audiences in live viewing environments).  If each school is on their own, the number of viewers of their content is a tiny fraction of what it was, and the value of that audience to advertisers is diminished.

You're also assuming the advertising business model is the driving force. It is not. It is cable TV fees that drive this model.

ESPN only makes 21% of its revenue from advertising.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/ad-revenue-playing-a-decreasing-role-in-cable-network-revenue

In 1989, ESPN generated about 40% of its revenue from advertising. This number dropped by nearly half to 22% by 2009, which is about on par with current revenue at 21.3%.


And the streaming services don't have commercials. It is all about subscription fees now.

And you're contention that draw huge audiences from multiple fanbases across large geographies.  When you can bundle together the fanbases of Alabama and Florida and Tennessee, etc., you are reaching a mass audience and can charge a very large amount of money to advertisers.

This was the idea behind every expanding TV right for properties like ESPN. The problem is they charge more and more, and now ESPN subscribers peaked 12 years ago (2011), and they have lost 25% of their subscribers.

https://www.axios.com/2021/12/08/espn-streaming-subscribers-cable-disney

Why? Cable/ESPN costs too much precisely because they are doing what you said.

This business model is not working anymore ... it is too expensive.

[Not A Serious Person]

A la carte pricing or smaller bundles have always been something the providers *could* have done. They didn't because they didn't have to. The delivery mechanism is changing quickly, but so far the model has not. The LHN may have worked at UT as a means to an end. A Golden Eagle Network would not be viable.

100% correct.

Golden Eagle network is not viable now. But I contend that is where everything is going.

And yes, they could have gone to a la carte pricing, but they did not, and they are spending a lot of time in court fighting this pricing model.

Yes, they are winning these lawsuits, just like the recording industry sued Napster out of business. But the technology changed the business model, so while record companies were slapping themselves on the back over their victories, the new technology (streaming) gave way to Spotify and other such platforms that fundamentally changed the recording industry.

Again, the business model of bundling a ton of stuff and charging a lot for it, understanding that 95% is not viewed by the typical subscriber, was the business model. I believe it will not be the business model going forward.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Golden Eagle network is not viable now. But I contend that is where everything is going.

It might be. But schools can adjust in the future. Conference affiliations aren't lifetime contracts.

[Not A Serious Person]

It might be. But schools can adjust in the future. Conference affiliations aren't lifetime contracts.

Correct. But there is a big "first mover advantage" by going early (and right before adopting the business model takes hold). So waiting and waiting until the technology and business model is established and then going along after the first movers risk leaving a lot of money on the table.

[DoctorV]

Page 77, tight!

[PBRme]

Nothing is funnier than Sultan complaining about nitpicking.

[Not A Serious Person]

I agree with your assessment, but Notre Dame football appears to be at the moment the exception. Full disclosure, I have not watched a college football game in years. The reason I don't watch is that no Football Team not in the P5 will ever have a chance at a National Title, which is why the NCAA Basketball tournament is truly a National tournament; even a little School like St. Peters has a chance. I am sure the greedy state schools and media buddies will eventually wreck that too.

You're not wrong.

What happens when a 25-team SEC (which is where it is going, with UT and OU joining in two years) and similar size B1G (with UCLA and USC joining in a few years) decide to leave the CFB and form their own "national championship" which is the two conference champions playing each other in early January?

Why? They keep all the $$$$$ for themselves.

And when they do this, why not ditch the NCAA tourney and do the same in basketball?

Why? again $$$$$

Make the case that doing this leads to them making less money (remember they keep it all the $$$ for themselves, they don't have to share it with St. Peters).

[Skatastrophy]

I want Twitch-style streaming for CBB, with a variety of announcers that I can choose to watch cast the game live. The current streaming model is the same as cable tv, just on the internet.

Amazon is already streaming Thursday Night Football on Twitch. I'm looking forward to sports continued movement towards new media.

[Not A Serious Person]

I want Twitch-style streaming for CBB, with a variety of announcers that I can choose to watch cast the game live. The current streaming model is the same as cable tv, just on the internet.

Amazon is already streaming Thursday Night Football on Twitch. I'm looking forward to sports continued movement towards new media.

I 100% agree. Too many think "streaming" means just "mirroring" what is on cable on an app.

Streaming opens up endless possibilities with broadcasting, announcing, paying, etc.  See what Twitch or Amazon does with Thursday Night Football. These are good examples.

(If you're not familiar, think of what ESPN does with the Manning's on MNF, but imagine 5 or 10 or even 20 such options to pick from, mixing and matching announcers, type of broadcasts stats of the screen, and on and on to customize viewing.)

[Not A Serious Person]

This makes more sense than a deal with the Big East

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-in-contact-with-arizona-arizona-state-colorado-utah-as-pac-12-media-rights-future-remains-uncertain/

[Not A Serious Person]

ACC in trouble?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35762510/college-football-realignment-acc-big-money-battle

[Uncle Rico]

ACC in trouble?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35762510/college-football-realignment-acc-big-money-battle

The Big Ten and SEC would love to take multiple schools from the ACC.

[SaveOD238]

This makes more sense than a deal with the Big East

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-in-contact-with-arizona-arizona-state-colorado-utah-as-pac-12-media-rights-future-remains-uncertain/

It baffles me that we are close to a world in which neither the flagship university of the largest state in the country nor the university with the closest ties to the biggest sporting apparel company are in a major conference.

The future PAC 12 of the Washington schools, the Oregon schools, Cal, Stanford, Boise, SDSU, Fresno, and Nevada is a little geographically spread out but is clearly a second or third tier league.

[CountryRoads]

It's obviously just business, but I don't see how the Big12 doesn't take the opportunity to leave Colorado out in the cold.

[Uncle Rico]

It's obviously just business, but I don't see how the Big12 doesn't take the opportunity to leave Colorado out in the cold.

New era.  Colorado partly left like Nebraska did, because of the overpowering influence in the Big XII out of Austin.  Texas is gone and I bet more than a few of the current members of the Big XII would have jumped a decade ago had they had the chance.

Secondly, the new Big XII commish wants to swing big and crippling the Pac 12 gives the Big XII a lot of bargaining power

[Ellenson Guerrero]

ACC in trouble?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35762510/college-football-realignment-acc-big-money-battle

My schaefenfreude when then ACC disintegrates will be almost uncontainable. Cuse, Louisville, Pitt, BC... talk about sleeping in the bed you made...

[Herman Cain]

UNC has a standing offer to join the SEC. When they decide to make that move it's game over for the ACC. For now they continue to believe in their conference and its traditional rivals.


At the end of the day ESPN and Fox makes the final call on these realignments . In this case .

ESPN is getting a good deal from the ACC presently . Have a lot of top brands at less than premium price .