More conference realignment talk

[Goatherder]

Never say never, particularly with UCLA and USC making the Western Conference actually Western, but I do not see how it makes sense.  Of course if there are buckets of money out there to be made, any school would have to at least listen.  However, I doubt that there are.  This does not seem to make much sense. 

First, schools would have to consider an offer that would make them a great increase in money.  However, no matter how good their basketball teams are, the bulk of the Big 12 money is going to come from football and they are not going to share any of it with non-football members.  If what they were offered was only a modest increase, hooking up with football teams does not seem like a good idea.  The Big East has the advantage right now of being what it was intended to be - a conference centered around men's basketball.  Right now, the conference has most schools who fit this profile and who have more in common with each other than it has since it was founded. 

I cannot imagine that UConn would be anxious to join as a basketball-only member when they actually do have a football team.  As for why the Big 12 would want those particular schools, it does not matter if the schools in question are rich or poor or draw flies.  The point is TV.  Rutgers does not fit the geographic, academic, or athletic profile of the Big Ten.  They are having one of their big years now.  Those are few and far between and few people in the state of New Jersey are all fired up about the University of New Jersey.  But thier presence means that every cable subscriber in NYC is paying money for the BTN regardless of whether they actually want it or care about Rutgers.  So the fact that Marquette is supposedly one of the richest programs (which I take with a grain of salt, as you can do all kinds of tricks with accounting) that is irrelevant.  The conference is not going to see the money anyway. 

[duanewade]

Never say never, particularly with UCLA and USC making the Western Conference actually Western, but I do not see how it makes sense.  Of course if there are buckets of money out there to be made, any school would have to at least listen.  However, I doubt that there are.  This does not seem to make much sense. 

First, schools would have to consider an offer that would make them a great increase in money.  However, no matter how good their basketball teams are, the bulk of the Big 12 money is going to come from football and they are not going to share any of it with non-football members.  If what they were offered was only a modest increase, hooking up with football teams does not seem like a good idea.  The Big East has the advantage right now of being what it was intended to be - a conference centered around men's basketball.  Right now, the conference has most schools who fit this profile and who have more in common with each other than it has since it was founded. 

I cannot imagine that UConn would be anxious to join as a basketball-only member when they actually do have a football team.  As for why the Big 12 would want those particular schools, it does not matter if the schools in question are rich or poor or draw flies.  The point is TV.  Rutgers does not fit the geographic, academic, or athletic profile of the Big Ten.  They are having one of their big years now.  Those are few and far between and few people in the state of New Jersey are all fired up about the University of New Jersey.  But thier presence means that every cable subscriber in NYC is paying money for the BTN regardless of whether they actually want it or care about Rutgers.  So the fact that Marquette is supposedly one of the richest programs (which I take with a grain of salt, as you can do all kinds of tricks with accounting) that is irrelevant.  The conference is not going to see the money anyway.

Cable is dying as the world is moving toward streaming.  You sign up for a data service provider with a speed of at least 50 to 100 Mbps and you then find your own customized programming which may not even include live tv (i.e.: YouTube, Hulu, Xfinity, Amazon, Netflix, ATT, boutique providers, etc.).  We're moving toward a la carte programming fast where each individual pays for only what they want and nothing more.  The pre-set cable packages, of say 50 to 100 channels, will be the minority option within five years.  Once this happens low ratings channels who traditionally survived on cable package fees in spite of low ratings (i.e.: CNN) will have to adapt or die. 

With soooooo much programming out there to choose from (I can't come close to keeping up with all the shows/series people tell me to watch) the providers will fight to obtain and produce programming with inelastic demand and a loyal niche audience.  Hence why there is a lot of value in paying for the rights to Big East basketball.  Don't be surprised if someone like Amazon comes in and overpays for the rights to the Big East where each team gets 3x's as much as we got from the last seven year contract.  They want more Amazon Prime Video Subscribers and the advertising revenues that come within the games as well.

Poo poo the financial revenues of Marquette all you want...  they are very real and Marquette has a lot to offer and all the power brokers outside of MU scoop know this.  Marquette will have a lot of opportunities available to us in this ever changing world as long as we continue to offer an excellent product. 

[tower912]

If it is on Amazon, will you still be able to turn it off in a huff?

[duanewade]

If it is on Amazon, will you still be able to turn it off in a huff?

Fake News!  One of my angry girl friends was upset and logged on as me!  I thought the game was never in doubt!

[Ellenson Guerrero]

I think this where the steep declines of basketball programs like Syracuse, BC, Pitt and ND really helps. As someone already said, the football schools aren’t gifting football money to basketball schools, so the biggest consideration for the Big East’s current members is what platform is most stable to maintain and grow our only value-add in the market, which is entertaining basketball. I think BC, Pitt, and Cuse have put themselves in a spot where they are one poaching attack on the ACC away from being relegated to the American, which would all but kill them as major college sports programs.

[muwarrior69]

Is it possible that in the future the media providers may offer separate deals for football and basketball rather than package them together as they are now?

[Oldgym]

I think BC, Pitt, and Cuse have put themselves in a spot where they are one poaching attack on the ACC away from being relegated to the American, which would all but kill them as major college sports programs.

Meaning you think such a poach would dissolve the ACC?

[Not A Serious Person]

Cable is dying as the world is moving toward streaming.  You sign up for a data service provider with a speed of at least 50 to 100 Mbps and you then find your own customized programming which may not even include live tv (i.e.: YouTube, Hulu, Xfinity, Amazon, Netflix, ATT, boutique providers, etc.).  We're moving toward a la carte programming fast where each individual pays for only what they want and nothing more.  The pre-set cable packages, of say 50 to 100 channels, will be the minority option within five years.  Once this happens low ratings channels who traditionally survived on cable package fees in spite of low ratings (i.e.: CNN) will have to adapt or die. 

With soooooo much programming out there to choose from (I can't come close to keeping up with all the shows/series people tell me to watch) the providers will fight to obtain and produce programming with inelastic demand and a loyal niche audience.  Hence why there is a lot of value in paying for the rights to Big East basketball.  Don't be surprised if someone like Amazon comes in and overpays for the rights to the Big East where each team gets 3x's as much as we got from the last seven year contract.  They want more Amazon Prime Video Subscribers and the advertising revenues that come within the games as well.

Poo poo the financial revenues of Marquette all you want...  they are very real and Marquette has a lot to offer and all the power brokers outside of MU scoop know this.  Marquette will have a lot of opportunities available to us in this ever changing world as long as we continue to offer an excellent product.

I agree with this, and I think we are all not thinking far enough.

When cable finally dies, and we are in a true streaming world (almost there now), do conferences survive? Each school will stream al a carte, and all college sports go independent like MU was in the 1970s and 1980s.

It is about scheduling anyone you need to get eyeballs on your stream.

Have to think more beyond the technology changing. When college sports moved from broadcast to cable, it increased the number of games multi-fold. That led to the conference's TV rights being sold.  So, when cable goes away, I think the conference model of selling TV right does too.

Next up if you want to think down the road ... NIL deals include a percentage of the streaming revenue.

[Not A Serious Person]

Is it possible that in the future the media providers may offer separate deals for football and basketball rather than package them together as they are now?

Will there be "media deals" in the future?

We have media deals now to get distribution? Do you need distribution in a streaming world? Anyone can spin up a website with a stream, and then you have all the distribution you need, just like that!

As I noted in the post above, everyone is thinking the switch from cable to streaming means the same business model transports over. Again, the current business model came because of cable. When cable goes away, so does the business model. 

Yes, in the interim, the streaming platforms will overpay for content to stay relevant (but they will eventually die too). So the Big East will get a big payday from Netflix, Hulu, Facebook, Amazon, Youtube, Twitter, Clubhouse or someone like that. But, eventually, this will give way to everything going the route of their own stream without a media deal.

[Coleman]

If it is on Amazon, will you still be able to turn it off in a huff?

"Alexa, aggressively turn off Marquette"

[tower912]

Bravo

[duanewade]

Will there be "media deals" in the future?

We have media deals now to get distribution? Do you need distribution in a streaming world? Anyone can spin up a website with a stream, and then you have all the distribution you need, just like that!
 
As I noted in the post above, everyone is thinking the switch from cable to streaming means the same business model transports over. Again, the current business model came because of cable. When cable goes away, so does the business model. 

Yes, in the interim, the streaming platforms will overpay for content to stay relevant (but they will eventually die too). So the Big East will get a big payday from Netflix, Hulu, Facebook, Amazon, Youtube, Twitter, Clubhouse or someone like that. But, eventually, this will give way to everything going the route of their own stream without a media deal.

All good points. The world of entertainment is changing at lightening speeds and it behooves Marquette and the Big East to be innovative and forward thinking.

However don’t use well thought out, backed points on this board. It will be met with no response, misdirections and/or negative gag reflex responses. 🤷‍♂️

[Uncle Rico]

Someone needs to tell the SEC, Big Ten and Big XII they screwed up their media rights deals

[Not A Serious Person]

All good points. The world of entertainment is changing at lightening speeds and it behooves Marquette and the Big East to be innovative and forward thinking.

However, don’t use well-thought-out, backed points on this board. It will be met with no response, misdirections and/or negative gag reflex responses. 🤷‍♂️

I'll repeat, business models are structured for their technology. You change the technology, and the business model has to change.

For college sports, the business model is selling TV rights at the conference level. Streaming is the new technology.

See Texas; they have the Longhorn network. They are very close to going off on their own.

Someday MU will have the Golden Eagles streaming network, and that is the driver to get them paid for college basketball games, not a cable deal with the big east via Fox. (to be clear, the old model is the immediate future, but not the long game.)

[Not A Serious Person]

Someone needs to tell the SEC, Big Ten and Big XII they screwed up their media rights deals

The CONFERENCE did not screw up. But the marquee NAMES, Michigan, Alabama, Texas et. al will soon do better with their own streaming deals apart from the conference.

UCLA and USC joining the B1G are short-sighted. They are jumping in at the end of an era, not thinking forward.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

See Texas; they have the Longhorn network. They are very close to going off on their own.

Texas is closing down the Longhorn Network when it joins the SEC.

So good call.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Texas is closing down the Longhorn Network when it joins the SEC.

So good call.

One of the big reasons conference realignment went haywire in the first place and going off the air just a decade later.

Now we probably reaching this point even without the longhorn network, but the irony is still there.

[Not A Serious Person]

Texas is closing down the Longhorn Network when it joins the SEC.

So good call.

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/2021/07/26/dont-laugh-at-the-longhorn-network-it-served-its-purpose-for-texas/

[Uncle Rico]

The CONFERENCE did not screw up. But the marquee NAMES, Michigan, Alabama, Texas et. al will soon do better with their own streaming deals apart from the conference.

UCLA and USC joining the B1G are short-sighted. They are jumping in at the end of an era, not thinking forward.

College athletics are moving to a professional model.  The schools you listed are worth less without their brethren.  The Dallas Cowboys could sell their rights to the highest bidder, too

[Ellenson Guerrero]

Meaning you think such a poach would dissolve the ACC?

Yes. What does that league look like if the SEC comes calling for Miami, FSU, Clemson, Louisville, and Va Tech, and the Big# onboards ND, UVA, UNC and Duke?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/2021/07/26/dont-laugh-at-the-longhorn-network-it-served-its-purpose-for-texas/

LOL. Did you even read this? This article states that the success of the Longhorn Network is that it leveraged Texas' move to the SEC. Not that independent schools streaming their own content is the future as you stated above.

So it pretty much did the EXACT OPPOSITE of what you are suggesting.

Good call.

[Not A Serious Person]

LOL. Did you even read this? This article states that the success of the Longhorn Network is that it leveraged Texas' move to the SEC. Not that independent schools streaming their own content is the future as you stated above.

So it pretty much did the EXACT OPPOSITE of what you are suggesting.

Good call.

Did you read what I wrote? Conferences TV rights are now based on cable TV. Streaming is the future. And with new technology comes new business models.

Why do you always fight? Why don't you contribute to this discussion in a thoughtful way?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Did you read what I wrote? Conferences TV rights are now based on cable TV. Streaming is the future. And with new technology comes new business models.

Are you posting from 2015 or something? Streaming isn't the future. Streaming is now. Pretty much all the current deals come with streaming options.

But your assertion above is that schools would have been better breaking off and streaming their own deals instead of joining conferences. You used Texas and the LHN as an example, saying they are "close to going off on their own." 

But in actuality they are shutting down the LHN and joining the SEC next year! So even the school you use as an example is moving in the opposite direction as you are suggesting.

Why do you always fight? Why don't you contribute to this discussion in a thoughtful way?

Because you constantly make assertions that are bogus, and when its shown to be bogus, shift the goalposts.

[Not A Serious Person]

Are you posting from 2015 or something? Streaming isn't the future. Streaming is now. Pretty much all the current deals come with streaming options.

But your assertion above is that schools would have been better breaking off and streaming their own deals instead of joining conferences. You used Texas and the LHN as an example, saying they are "close to going off on their own." 

But in actuality they are shutting down the LHN and joining the SEC next year! So even the school you use as an example is moving in the opposite direction as you are suggesting.


Because you constantly make assertions that are bogus, and when its shown to be bogus, shift the goalposts.

No one is shifting goal post. You're just being yourself.

Let me try again ...

Conference TV rights were not a thing in the 1980s and 1990s. They became a thing with cable TV becoming a dominant form of delivering content. Cable TV allowed for sports-only channels that needed a lot more content. Broadcast did not, as they only showed a handful of games on the weekend. So, conferences banded together and sold their rights to cable TV.  New technology brings about a new business model.

Now a new business model is emerging in streaming. Initially, we are copying the old cable model, in the form of big platforms like Netflix and Hulu, into a streaming format. They are cable over the internet.

We saw this at the beginning of the cable. They created cable networks like TBS and USA. It was broadcast TV on cable—the same model. Eventually, cable grew into much more than this.

But streaming is also much more than the big platforms. It is the ability to pick from all content available everywhere whenever you want it. The point of streaming is to get you to stop paying for crap you do not want, like 24 other teams in the SEC, when you're a Texas fan. Or 200 shows on Netflix you'll never watch. I only want to pay for the five shows I care about, and MU basketball, and nothing else. That is where things are going.

So cable TV rights (bundling tons of crap and making me pay for it) and the promise of streaming (paying for only what I watch and nothing more) are in conflict with each other. So, I'll repeat new technologies and bring about new business models.

So, what is your thought here?  (anticipating the answer you always give, this is coming a lot faster than you think.)

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

My thought is that you were wrong about the Longhorn Network and Texas going off on their own.  Furthermore, the big schools seem to be perfectly happy to continue to align with one another in conferences and don't believe, as you stated above, that they are making mistake in doing so.

And if these points of evidence are the basis of your thesis, I would say you are mistaken and the current model isn't changing anytime soon.