More conference realignment talk

[wadesworld]

I don't care about whether Gonzaga will be at its peak or not after Few.  I care whether they'll be better than a DePaul level program.  Few is an all time great coach.  Not many people are going to be able to recruit kids to Spokane, WA (or recruit international kids).  And then there's the whole, do schools like St. John's want to be sending their women's volleyball teams out to Spokane, WA every year?  If you're adding a basketball program that will be competing for national titles every year, the answer is probably yes.  If you're adding a basketball program that is mid-major level, then probably not.  That's why you need to figure out what Gonzaga will be after Few leaves.

[WhiteTrash]

Not advocating for or against Gonzaga, but many thought they peaked under Dan Monson.

[PBRme]

With Gonzaga and St Mary's you would also be able to have the 10/11pm game.

[The Sultan of Semantics]

The BE may add Gonzaga. They won't be adding St. Mary's.

[Viper]

You might call him "Ineptune"

Laughter? No? I'll see myself out...

i’d like to call you a dweeb, but “Ineptune”…that’s pretty funny.

[Aughnanure]

Frame the question differently.  Name a program that:
- Could even remotely be considered available
- Isn't at their peak
- You want in the Big East

If the answer were obvious, I think the conference would have expanded already.

I think Gonzaga is the only one that fits all 3, but the geography issue may block them from being truly available and why I think they are not already in. But its hard for me to really buy it can't work anymore with UCLA and USC going to the B1G and the Big XII soon to be including teams from West Virginia, Utah, and Florida.

If there's a way that Gonzaga only works with a travelling partner that becomes harder to swallow unless the TV networks say it'll still raise the per-school revenue considerably. In that scenario, I would only think a school like UNLV would work (SMC needs more than a 3.5K dinky arena to be Big East worthy no matter how good they get).

[Newsdreams]

Don't get me wrong, I love playing in the Big East, but the Big XII is year in and year out the best college hoops conference, even without Oklahoma and Texas (Houston, Cincy, and BYU each have good hoops history coming in).

MU Admin would have to at least think about it.

I think you're lost

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

What is its place? Is our contract worth more than say the MAC football contract? Or AAC? Or financially are we actually only comparable to BBall only and non TV football conferences?

I think you're first question is the most important one when talking about potential conference realignment. My personal take:

Tier 1: Big 10 and SEC. They are and for the forseeable future will always be the class of college athletics. They are the apex predators.

Tier 2: Big 12. It was unclear for a while, but I think the Big 12 has emerged as the clear best of the rest. I also think they will be safe no matter what the B1G and SEC decide to do. The Big 12 will never catch Tier 1, but I don't think they will ever be left behind.

Tier 3: Big East, ACC, and PAC 12. These groups are ultimately at the mercy of Tier 1. Tier 1 could decide to invite them into the new world order as is which would move them to Tier 2, they could strip them for parts, or they could leave them behind. Ultimately, I think the Big East is actually the best positioned of the three. I think there's a real danger for the ACC and P12 that they will eventually be stripped of their best programs because they still have some quality football programs to give. I think Tier 1 will invite more basketball programs than football programs and the Big East will have the advantage of not being burdened with football programs who are now doomed to FCS level status.

Tier 4: MVC, AAC, A10, MWC, WCC, maybe others. I think their basketball programs will be safe but it's less certain than Tier 3 and they'll never be at Tier 3's level.

Tier 5: Everyone Else

This is the real reason why I think any Big East school would jump at at B1G/SEC/B12 offer, stability...along with more money.

[muwarrior69]

I think you're first question is the most important one when talking about potential conference realignment. My personal take:

Tier 1: Big 10 and SEC. They are and for the forseeable future will always be the class of college athletics. They are the apex predators.

Tier 2: Big 12. It was unclear for a while, but I think the Big 12 has emerged as the clear best of the rest. I also think they will be safe no matter what the B1G and SEC decide to do. The Big 12 will never catch Tier 1, but I don't think they will ever be left behind.

Tier 3: Big East, ACC, and PAC 12. These groups are ultimately at the mercy of Tier 1. Tier 1 could decide to invite them into the new world order as is which would move them to Tier 2, they could strip them for parts, or they could leave them behind. Ultimately, I think the Big East is actually the best positioned of the three. I think there's a real danger for the ACC and P12 that they will eventually be stripped of their best programs because they still have some quality football programs to give. I think Tier 1 will invite more basketball programs than football programs and the Big East will have the advantage of not being burdened with football programs who are now doomed to FCS level status.

Tier 4: MVC, AAC, A10, MWC, WCC, maybe others. I think their basketball programs will be safe but it's less certain than Tier 3 and they'll never be at Tier 3's level.

Tier 5: Everyone Else

This is the real reason why I think any Big East school would jump at at B1G/SEC/B12 offer, stability...along with more money.

The NCAA Basketball Championship TV contract goes through 2032. Do you think there will still be an NCAA in 2032?

[Ellenson Guerrero]

I think you're first question is the most important one when talking about potential conference realignment. My personal take:

Tier 1: Big 10 and SEC. They are and for the forseeable future will always be the class of college athletics. They are the apex predators.

Tier 2: Big 12. It was unclear for a while, but I think the Big 12 has emerged as the clear best of the rest. I also think they will be safe no matter what the B1G and SEC decide to do. The Big 12 will never catch Tier 1, but I don't think they will ever be left behind.

Tier 3: Big East, ACC, and PAC 12. These groups are ultimately at the mercy of Tier 1. Tier 1 could decide to invite them into the new world order as is which would move them to Tier 2, they could strip them for parts, or they could leave them behind. Ultimately, I think the Big East is actually the best positioned of the three. I think there's a real danger for the ACC and P12 that they will eventually be stripped of their best programs because they still have some quality football programs to give. I think Tier 1 will invite more basketball programs than football programs and the Big East will have the advantage of not being burdened with football programs who are now doomed to FCS level status.

Tier 4: MVC, AAC, A10, MWC, WCC, maybe others. I think their basketball programs will be safe but it's less certain than Tier 3 and they'll never be at Tier 3's level.

Tier 5: Everyone Else

This is the real reason why I think any Big East school would jump at at B1G/SEC/B12 offer, stability...along with more money.

This all makes sense except the last paragraph. The B10 and SEC aren’t taking any basketball only schools (at least not at a price that would actually make it worthwhile for a Big East school to jump) and even if they did, those programs would immediately be at the bottom at the heap (such as BC, Cuse, Pitt) and at the whim of the football schools a la the 2010 Big East… highly unstable. Football will continue to consolidate and the Big East will continue to ride sidecar for basketball. But the ACC and PAC 12 are in real danger.

[JWags85]

Their roster isn’t all that different than last year when they went to the Final Four.

Neptune looks completely inept

Are you serious Clark?

Yea, totally the same except they lost the 2 time BE POY, lost a very reliable and experienced Jermaine Samuels, and they haven’t had an All BE senior in Moore all year until last week.  Oh and their star freshman missed the first month plus of the season and has only been a starter for less than 10 games.

Listen, I don’t think Neptune has been good and he was an ehh hire from the start, but to pretend he has a FF roster that he’s turned into a sub 500 team is just not true at all

[WhiteTrash]

This all makes sense except the last paragraph. The B10 and SEC aren’t taking any basketball only schools (at least not at a price that would actually make it worthwhile for a Big East school to jump) and even if they did, those programs would immediately be at the bottom at the heap (such as BC, Cuse, Pitt) and at the whim of the football schools a la the 2010 Big East… highly unstable. Football will continue to consolidate and the Big East will continue to ride sidecar for basketball. But the ACC and PAC 12 are in real danger.

I agreed with the analysis too. And you are right about the ACC and PAC12. I think the ACC will continue is some form but when FSU, Miami, UNC and Clemson leave it will look closer to the old AAC than a P5 conference. As for the PAC12, I think total dissolution is possible. (OR, WA, AZ, AZ ST, UT and CO leaving)

[Herman Cain]

I think you're first question is the most important one when talking about potential conference realignment. My personal take:

Tier 1: Big 10 and SEC. They are and for the forseeable future will always be the class of college athletics. They are the apex predators.

Tier 2: Big 12. It was unclear for a while, but I think the Big 12 has emerged as the clear best of the rest. I also think they will be safe no matter what the B1G and SEC decide to do. The Big 12 will never catch Tier 1, but I don't think they will ever be left behind.

Tier 3: Big East, ACC, and PAC 12. These groups are ultimately at the mercy of Tier 1. Tier 1 could decide to invite them into the new world order as is which would move them to Tier 2, they could strip them for parts, or they could leave them behind. Ultimately, I think the Big East is actually the best positioned of the three. I think there's a real danger for the ACC and P12 that they will eventually be stripped of their best programs because they still have some quality football programs to give. I think Tier 1 will invite more basketball programs than football programs and the Big East will have the advantage of not being burdened with football programs who are now doomed to FCS level status.

Tier 4: MVC, AAC, A10, MWC, WCC, maybe others. I think their basketball programs will be safe but it's less certain than Tier 3 and they'll never be at Tier 3's level.

Tier 5: Everyone Else

This is the real reason why I think any Big East school would jump at at B1G/SEC/B12 offer, stability...along with more money.

I agree with this analysis

[Coleman]

I think you're first question is the most important one when talking about potential conference realignment. My personal take:

Tier 1: Big 10 and SEC. They are and for the forseeable future will always be the class of college athletics. They are the apex predators.

Tier 2: Big 12. It was unclear for a while, but I think the Big 12 has emerged as the clear best of the rest. I also think they will be safe no matter what the B1G and SEC decide to do. The Big 12 will never catch Tier 1, but I don't think they will ever be left behind.

Tier 3: Big East, ACC, and PAC 12. These groups are ultimately at the mercy of Tier 1. Tier 1 could decide to invite them into the new world order as is which would move them to Tier 2, they could strip them for parts, or they could leave them behind. Ultimately, I think the Big East is actually the best positioned of the three. I think there's a real danger for the ACC and P12 that they will eventually be stripped of their best programs because they still have some quality football programs to give. I think Tier 1 will invite more basketball programs than football programs and the Big East will have the advantage of not being burdened with football programs who are now doomed to FCS level status.

Tier 4: MVC, AAC, A10, MWC, WCC, maybe others. I think their basketball programs will be safe but it's less certain than Tier 3 and they'll never be at Tier 3's level.

Tier 5: Everyone Else

This is the real reason why I think any Big East school would jump at at B1G/SEC/B12 offer, stability...along with more money.

This is why I think a school like BC may actually join the Big East at some point. Even though the ACC is supposedly a superior conference right now.

[79Warrior]

Louisville is finding it's hard to follow the guy who followed a legend.

Georgetown is finding it's hard to follow the son of legend who followed the guy who followed a legend--even if you hire a legend in his own right. 

And don't get me started on DePaul or UCLA.

DePaul and UCLA are complete opposites. The Bruins won a natty post Wooden. Cronin doing a good job with the program right now. Nothing wrong with the Bruins.

[MU82]

Are you serious Clark?

Yea, totally the same except they lost the 2 time BE POY, lost a very reliable and experienced Jermaine Samuels, and they haven’t had an All BE senior in Moore all year until last week.  Oh and their star freshman missed the first month plus of the season and has only been a starter for less than 10 games.

Listen, I don’t think Neptune has been good and he was an ehh hire from the start, but to pretend he has a FF roster that he’s turned into a sub 500 team is just not true at all

Yeah, it's cool to say, "If they had Kolek, they'd be doing great" ... except that they don't have anything close to him, so it's both a moot point and one that's impossible to prove.

I know NBA types are high on Whitmore, but he's been pretty unimpressive when I've seen him (and I've seen him more than his foul-plagued cameo the other night). And obviously there's the Moore injury.

I do think coaching has been an issue, though. Disjointed and often discombobulated on offense, and no real identity. I doubt this team, as constituted, would be winning big under Wright, but I doubt it would look this bad, either.

Having said all that, they've made Marquette sweat twice to beat them.

[Viper]

This is why I think a school like BC may actually join the Big East at some point. Even though the ACC is supposedly a superior conference right now.

BC gets a lot of coin from the ACC that the BE can’t match.

[Ellenson Guerrero]

BC gets a lot of coin from the ACC that the BE can’t match.

The most well-heeled athletic programs money can buy and nary a win to show for it.

[WhiteTrash]

The most well-heeled athletic programs money can buy and nary a win to show for it.

Yea, but the ACC locked up the massive Boston college football market. The SEC is still kicking itself for going after the Texas market and getting punked by the ACC in the Northeast.

[Ellenson Guerrero]

Yea, but the ACC locked up the massive Boston college football market. The SEC is still kicking itself for going after the Texas market and getting punked by the ACC in the Northeast.

To be fair, BC did have Flutie Flakes in the 80s.

[JWags85]

The most well-heeled athletic programs money can buy and nary a win to show for it.

And their moronic AD hire proved it.  They got Brad Brates from Miami of Ohio.  Great fundraiser but a fairly clueless AD when it comes to actual success.  At Miami, he inherited a football team that had been 75-40 over the decade prior and in just a few years, after 2 HC hires, they win 8 games total over his final 3 years there.  A strong  mid major BB program that was a few years removed from a S16 and won the MAC a few times recently .  With Bates asleep at the wheel, they finished at the bottom of the MAC multiple years in a row before he bolted.

Somehow he gets a promotion to the BC gig.  Secures funding for facility upgrades but hires Addazio and Jim Christian as his first big hires…both are disasters and go winless in conference the same year.  Pretty much sums up BC athletics these days

[WhiteTrash]

To be fair, BC did have Flutie Flakes in the 80s.

BC > TA&M

[jesmu84]

https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/3455861/boom-oklahoma-and-texas-reach-an-agreement-with-the-big-12-to-leave-early-and-will-play-in-the-sec-in-2024

[The Sultan of Semantics]

Read an article by Matt Brown, who does a newsletter on the business of college sports and conference reallignment. He talked about how punitive the ACC exit fees are - $120 million at this point. However, a school may consider paying such a fee because the disparities between the ACC and the Big Ten / SEC are so great. Florida State calculated that they could break even in three or four years.

However, that doesn't include the Grant of Rights Fees which could be as much as $350 million if they are enforceable.  And the ACC doesn't get to renegotiate rights fees until 2036 - both the B10 and SEC will get a chance to renegotiate before then.

[wiscwarrior]

A couple of sites, one being Villanova's premium Scout site, are saying that there are discussions between the Big 12 and Villanova, St John's, and Uconn to join the Big 12 as basketball only schools. Most on the Villanova site indicate it is something VU would have to do if offered.