More conference realignment talk

[brewcity77]

I would think that Duke, Syracuse and BC football are most definitely NOT more attractive football programs than the AAC. But they are MUCH better all sports members than the AAC, and IMO probably better than the BE. Especially if you can park football there.

Sure, it would be better all-sports, but does anyone outside Bill Walton care about all-sports? Football drives the bus and basketball drives the work van. Everything else is just a hitchhiker. No one is deciding their league affiliation future because of Syracuse lacrosse, Louisville baseball, or Duke women's golf. UConn didn't come for all sports, they came because of basketball. That's not to say others will follow suit, but their decisions will be based on how much football and basketball revenue they can bring in.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Yup, yup, yup.  UNC is the next big brand outside of Notre Dame that knocks down a few more dominoes. 

I am curious what those associated with UNC think.  That's a very tight-knit community from alum through administrators.  They might be one of the schools outside Notre Dame that doesn't chase the bag, at least immediately.

The covered up rapes/assaults and fake classes weren't chasing the bag?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This says $30 million
https://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-huskies/hc-sp-clb-uconn-big-east-contract-20190626-20190626-44voas7itffazjtcnrseuaspeu-story.html

Yeah, I have a hard time seeing UConn spending $30 million to join the reanimated corpse of the ACC. I think that conference would end up getting a very similar contract to what the AAC currently has.

[Uncle Rico]

The covered up rapes/assaults and fake classes weren't chasing the bag?

That's a fair question.  I think there is something to be said about them being the alphas in the ACC and having the Tobacco Road mafia to back them. 

[forgetful]

The only thing I read about ND and the SEC is that they may find playing in the south and Texas preferable from both an athletic and general student recruitment point of view.  They like their affiliation with the ACC for that reason.

I don't see the likes of Duke, ND, or UNC in the SEC. All three schools highly value academic reputation (same with Washington/Stanford/Cal). All those schools would prefer the B10, which has academic cache.

The SEC is an assortment of Community colleges (with the exception of Vanderbilt) compared to the B10.

[PJDunn]

Georgia and Florida are pretty good academic schools, but beyond that your point is hard to argue with. Interested to see if the B10 dangles an invite to Stanford to lure ND.

[The Equalizer]

Yeah, I have a hard time seeing UConn spending $30 million to join the reanimated corpse of the ACC. I think that conference would end up getting a very similar contract to what the AAC currently has.

Not as hard if you drop the assumption that the Big East will retain its relevance when the music stops.

Like it or not, one of the potential outcomes of these musical chairs is that there is a hard split between football-playing schools and non-football schools, leaving the Big East outside looking in. Everyone here just seems to assume that the Big East is good enough that the football schools will be willing to bring them along for the ride. 

Frankly, it's not even guaranteed that the ACC would be brought along for the ride, but from UConn's perspective, it's not hard to rationalize that a conference of 100% FBS schools will be included over a conference with 7 basketball only, 3 FCS, and 1 FBS school.

[brewcity77]

Not as hard if you drop the assumption that the Big East will retain its relevance when the music stops.

Like it or not, one of the potential outcomes of these musical chairs is that there is a hard split between football-playing schools and non-football schools, leaving the Big East outside looking in. Everyone here just seems to assume that the Big East is good enough that the football schools will be willing to bring them along for the ride. 

Frankly, it's not even guaranteed that the ACC would be brought along for the ride, but from UConn's perspective, it's not hard to rationalize that a conference of 100% FBS schools will be included over a conference with 7 basketball only, 3 FCS, and 1 FBS school.

I have a hard time seeing them wanting to put the extra work into putting on the NCAA Tournament when someone is already doing it for them. But if they do, the power schools will still probably be capping out at 60-80 schools between the three surviving leagues. Even if they vacuum up 60% of the bids, that will still leave 25 bids to fill out. It is hard for me to envision them leaving out basketball only schools, unless they're trying to stage a 32-team tournament.

[MUeng]

I have a hard time seeing them wanting to put the extra work into putting on the NCAA Tournament when someone is already doing it for them. But if they do, the power schools will still probably be capping out at 60-80 schools between the three surviving leagues. Even if they vacuum up 60% of the bids, that will still leave 25 bids to fill out. It is hard for me to envision them leaving out basketball only schools, unless they're trying to stage a 32-team tournament.

I see them capping it at 32 like you say. Or something around there but in the end, it will be an incestuous tournament that does not invite anyone outside their power 2.5 sphere. Do they go that far and even leave nova and Gonzaga out because they would take a piece of their money pie? The Huggins and caliparis of the world hate Cinderellas and don't even want the door open for a non-p2.5 to win it all

[The Sultan]

I have a hard time seeing them wanting to put the extra work into putting on the NCAA Tournament when someone is already doing it for them. But if they do, the power schools will still probably be capping out at 60-80 schools between the three surviving leagues. Even if they vacuum up 60% of the bids, that will still leave 25 bids to fill out. It is hard for me to envision them leaving out basketball only schools, unless they're trying to stage a 32-team tournament.

Yeah leaving the NCAA entirely paints them as the bad actors - a role that the NCAA occupies now. As long as the NCAA doesn't touch the football money, and gives them a large enough share of the basketball tournament money, the big conferences don't have much of a reason to leave the NCAA. It serves a useful purpose for them anyway. (Staging championships, eligibility, etc.)

[The Sultan]

Georgia and Florida are pretty good academic schools, but beyond that your point is hard to argue with. Interested to see if the B10 dangles an invite to Stanford to lure ND.

Texas, A&M, Auburn, etc.  The SEC isn't terrible in that regard.

[brewcity77]

Yeah leaving the NCAA entirely paints them as the bad actors - a role that the NCAA occupies now. As long as the NCAA doesn't touch the football money, and gives them a large enough share of the basketball tournament money, the big conferences don't have much of a reason to leave the NCAA. It serves a useful purpose for them anyway. (Staging championships, eligibility, etc.)

Exactly. And while the money is all from the NCAA Tournament, all the other sports they would have to manage would be that much more of a pain. It's far easier to let the NCAA do what it does and use the NCAA Tournament revenue to fund all the other sports championships than to try to grab all the NCAA Tourney money for yourself (which would kill the NCAA) and have to figure out how to manage all the other sports. And because of Title IX, it's not like they can fold the NCAA and just abandon non-revenue sports altogether. Whether they like it or not, they still rely on the NCAA for a lot of their day-to-day sports management.

[Hards Alumni]

Never underestimate the desire to chase football glory, aka, the money, regardless of the cost to the university.

Exactly.

Even really bad football money is much better than most basketball money.

[Hards Alumni]

Not as hard if you drop the assumption that the Big East will retain its relevance when the music stops.

Like it or not, one of the potential outcomes of these musical chairs is that there is a hard split between football-playing schools and non-football schools, leaving the Big East outside looking in. Everyone here just seems to assume that the Big East is good enough that the football schools will be willing to bring them along for the ride. 

Frankly, it's not even guaranteed that the ACC would be brought along for the ride, but from UConn's perspective, it's not hard to rationalize that a conference of 100% FBS schools will be included over a conference with 7 basketball only, 3 FCS, and 1 FBS school.

Exactly.  A lot of optimists in this thread.  I, like you, think we are left sitting out in the snow a couple of winters from now when the mega conferences close the doors.

[WhiteTrash]

The academic stuff or standards are BS. There is not a player in any P5 school that could not play for any other P5 team because of academics. The only possible exceptions are ND and Stanford, but I wouldn't bet on that.

The only thing that matters is money. Can your school bring $50MM of annual value to a conference? Yes? You're in.  The arrogant ACC of BC, Duke, UNC, Virginia and Wake let in Louisville. UofL if a four year junior college. But the Cards bring monetary value. (for the record, I like Louisville and their fans).

[forgetful]

Texas, A&M, Auburn, etc.  The SEC isn't terrible in that regard.

A&M yes (always forget about them in the SEC...sorry TAMU). Florida has made massive strides in improving their academic reputation. But even still, they don't really hold academic cache.

Auburn, is a no. The other SEC schools, also no.

The SEC does not have a good academic reputation, period. Same with the B12.

The B10, and P12 do/did. That is why it is easier for the B12 to potentially expand and survive. They don't have to swallow their pride to let in Arizona/Arizona St./Utah. The P12 would have to swallow their pride to let in most of the teams that are available.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think a lot of people make the mistake of assuming that universities think/operate like private businesses.  They do not.

[lawdog77]

A&M yes (always forget about them in the SEC...sorry TAMU). Florida has made massive strides in improving their academic reputation. But even still, they don't really hold academic cache.

Auburn, is a no. The other SEC schools, also no.

The SEC does not have a good academic reputation, period. Same with the B12.

The B10, and P12 do/did. That is why it is easier for the B12 to potentially expand and survive. They don't have to swallow their pride to let in Arizona/Arizona St./Utah. The P12 would have to swallow their pride to let in most of the teams that are available.

The Pac 12 had a good academic reputation due to Cal/Stanford/USC/UCLA. and maybe Washington. All of the others are on the same level of Auburn/Tennessee.

[DFW HOYA]

By this argument, the Big East does not have an academic reputation either.

23. Georgetown
49. Villanova
63. Connecticut
83. Marquette
103. Creighton
127. DePaul
127. Seton Hall
172. St. John's
(PC, Butler, and Xavier are not national schools.)

The SEC in US News' rankings isn't that bad in comparison:

14. Vanderbilt
28. Florida
48. Georgia
68. Texas A&M
99. Auburn
103. Tennessee
117. South Carolina
122. Missouri
127. Kentucky
148. Mississippi
148. Alabama
162. Arkansas
172. LSU
196. Miss St.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

By this argument, the Big East does not have an academic reputation either.

23. Georgetown
49. Villanova
63. Connecticut
83. Marquette
103. Creighton
127. DePaul
127. Seton Hall
172. St. John's
(PC, Butler, and Xavier are not national schools.)

The SEC in US News' rankings isn't that bad in comparison:

14. Vanderbilt
28. Florida
48. Georgia
68. Texas A&M
99. Auburn
103. Tennessee
117. South Carolina
122. Missouri
127. Kentucky
148. Mississippi
148. Alabama
162. Arkansas
172. LSU
196. Miss St.

Especially when you add #38 Texas (and to a lesser extent #127 Oklahoma)

[Billy Hoyle]

Exactly.

Even really bad football money is much better than most basketball money.

exactly, especially if you are already getting football TV money. That's why anyone who actually thinks Kansas is "kicking the tires" of going independent and joining the Big East deserves to be laughed at.

[Uncle Rico]

exactly, especially if you are already getting football TV money. That's why anyone who actually thinks Kansas is "kicking the tires" of going independent and joining the Big East deserves to be laughed at.

I've never been more convinced of Kansas ending up in the Big East than I am now

[forgetful]

By this argument, the Big East does not have an academic reputation either.

US News is not an actual good metric for academic rankings and I also did not discuss the BE. Program ranking, grant funding, faculty reputations, and the graduate/professional side is what the academics in charge actually care about.

The Pac 12 had a good academic reputation due to Cal/Stanford/USC/UCLA. and maybe Washington. All of the others are on the same level of Auburn/Tennessee.

You are not wrong. But the P12 historically valued the reputation of those schools (but add Colorado to that list, they are strong academically). And Washington definitely makes that list of highly recognized academic institutions (number 5 in the world in research funding/expenditures). That is why they did not expand in the past.

The B12 and SEC have not valued academic reputation. Texas stood out in the B12, and Vanderbilt in the SEC.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Exactly.

Even really bad football money is much better than most basketball money.

The AAC makes less per school than the Big East does despite having football. I think that is the type of contract the likes of Syracuse, Pitt, Wake, Oregon State, etc. have to look forward to once their conferences are pillaged, maybe worse.

I think people are making the mistake of thinking that this will be like when the P5 left the Big East behind in football. They became a football mid-major but were still D1. I think this will be more akin to turning the SEC/B1G (and possibly the B12) into their own league and every one else into a separate lower league with the viewership of FCS football. And this time, I don't think there will be any future realignment to pin your hopes on.

exactly, especially if you are already getting football TV money. That's why anyone who actually thinks Kansas is "kicking the tires" of going independent and joining the Big East deserves to be laughed at.

If I recall correctly, you said similar about UConn years ago and I see them listed in the Big East standings at the left of the screen. And if you weren't the one, there were plenty who did. Any non-B1G/SEC athletic program worth their salt is currently researching all possible options, to not to would be negligent (and yes, I include Big East programs in that equation).

[WhiteTrash]

UCLA's football money was so good it ran a $100MM deficit the last three years and was going to axe multiple sports.