More conference realignment talk

[Hards Alumni]

Be very careful what you wish for. If the NCAA breaks apart, the big schools will have no motivation or need to share basketball revenue with anyone.

From Paint Touches.

https://twitter.com/PaintTouches/status/1545125374945902594

Hey, that's what I've been alluding to.

[Uncle Rico]

Hey, that's what I've been alluding to.

COLE

[The Sultan]

No, probably not. Just a fantasy. Cal is probably more likely to declare all competitive sports to be fascist and ban them altogether.

[CTEagle91]

As much as I love our conference I don't relish the idea of Big East games now competing for viewers with UCLA- Big 10 matchups during prime time hours. That adds a whole new pizzazz to midwest basketball that we don't have

[brewcity77]

Be very careful what you wish for. If the NCAA breaks apart, the big schools will have no motivation or need to share basketball revenue with anyone.

From Paint Touches.

https://twitter.com/PaintTouches/status/1545125374945902594

I devil's advocated Andrei on that one, but I disagree. Would they get the basketball revenue? Sure, but they would also have to administer the regular seasons and championships for 24 additional sports that currently the NCAA handles. If they do a full break, it would be just that, and suddenly it wouldn't be only basketball they had to address but rowing, water polo, cross country, and all the other sports that don't bring in revenue. I don't think the juice is worth the squeeze to do away with the NCAA.

And before someone suggests just folding those sports, they would have to maintain a number of them because of Title IX, which guarantees enough scholarships to at the minimum offset the 98 allotted to football and basketball. Could they significantly trim their athletic budgets by dropping a dozen or so sports? Sure, but that would create a pretty big backlash as they pocket record profits.

PT shared another graphic that just 36% of the NCAA Tourney dollars go to basketball. That means pouring the majority of those dollars into other sports. Sports that don't generate revenue. It isn't a good investment.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I did not. The bigger issue for UConn was whether they should drop football or drop down to FCS all things considered. Travel costs and lost
ticket revenue killed off any additional money they made from the AAC TV deal. They also stood to make more money from NCAA Tourney revenue (more teams making the Dance, fewer teams to split the revenue).

However, there is a big difference between the lack of money of the AAC TV deal and what a Big 12 program receives. After UConn left the AAC signed a "lucrative" TV deal getting each school $7 million per year (while UConn was running a $30 million deficit). Meanwhile, the Big 12 schools in 2021 were receiving $34.7 to $36.5 million each through their media rights deals. One estimate was that could fall to a minimum of $28 million with the addition of four new schools (thought BYU would bring more in), but that's still a significant amount.

The Big East's deal pays $4.6 million annually. While it will hopefully increase it will still dwarf the Big 12's deal.

UConn football has a TV contract with CBS Sports Network for home games and the women's BB has a TV contract with SNY for untelevised Fox games.

[Johnny B]

Unfortunately, I think in the years ahead the Big East has to grow or die. Add as many basketball centric programs as we can to remain competitive. How about: Duke, Wake, BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Kansas, Gonzaga, Cal? 20 team conference, play everyone once. Best basketball in the country.

problem is outside of gonzaga none of these schools want to end up in the big east. i mean its like the if all else fails plan. does anyone really belive any of these acc or big 12 schools are likely to fall below big east relevancy?? doubt it

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I did not. The bigger issue for UConn was whether they should drop football or drop down to FCS all things considered. Travel costs and lost
ticket revenue killed off any additional money they made from the AAC TV deal. They also stood to make more money from NCAA Tourney revenue (more teams making the Dance, fewer teams to split the revenue).

However, there is a big difference between the lack of money of the AAC TV deal and what a Big 12 program receives. After UConn left the AAC signed a "lucrative" TV deal getting each school $7 million per year (while UConn was running a $30 million deficit). Meanwhile, the Big 12 schools in 2021 were receiving $34.7 to $36.5 million each through their media rights deals. One estimate was that could fall to a minimum of $28 million with the addition of four new schools (thought BYU would bring more in), but that's still a significant amount.

The Big East's deal pays $4.6 million annually. While it will hopefully increase it will still dwarf the Big 12's deal.

You seem to be under the impression that I believe that Kansas would leave the B12 as it currently is to join the Big East. That would be ludicrous. What I have been saying is that Kansas is doing its due diligence (as all non-B1G/SEC schools are) on what all possible options are. Because a possible outcome in this whole realignment mess is that the B12 folds or becomes a glorified AAC with the TV contract to match. Personally, I think the B12 survives and Kansas will make the cut into the chosen few.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

All those schools, except one, play football though. They aren't giving that up to join the BE.

Not right now. But after the SEC, B1G, and possibly the B12 are raptured into their own private league? Maybe.

My belief is that there will be a group of P5 schools that combine into 2 or 3 super conferences and create their own football league separate from the NCAA. Once this happens, almost all of the TV dollars will shift to that new league and that league will be what people think of when they talk about college football. The remainders, the mid-major football programs and the P5 programs that don't make the cut will be as relevant as FCS football currently is and will have the TV contract to match. I think the chosen ones will keep all other sports, including basketball, in the NCAA. At this point is when I think the Big East will have the opportunity to get more UConn style arrangements with some significant basketball powers.

[panda]

Not right now. But after the SEC, B1G, and possibly the B12 are raptured into their own private league? Maybe.

My belief is that there will be a group of P5 schools that combine into 2 or 3 super conferences and create their own football league separate from the NCAA. Once this happens, almost all of the TV dollars will shift to that new league and that league will be what people think of when they talk about college football. The remainders, the mid-major football programs and the P5 programs that don't make the cut will be as relevant as FCS football currently is and will have the TV contract to match. I think the chosen ones will keep all other sports, including basketball, in the NCAA. At this point is when I think the Big East will have the opportunity to get more UConn style arrangements with some significant basketball powers.

Football will become much less lucrative if you're left out of the mega conferences.

[Billy Hoyle]

UConn football has a TV contract with CBS Sports Network for home games and the women's BB has a TV contract with SNY for untelevised Fox games.

it's $1 million. Not much. They save more with the reduced travel costs for all other sports and season ticket sales are up significantly in both MBB and WBB since they returned to the BE.

You seem to be under the impression that I believe that Kansas would leave the B12 as it currently is to join the Big East. That would be ludicrous. What I have been saying is that Kansas is doing its due diligence (as all non-B1G/SEC schools are) on what all possible options are. Because a possible outcome in this whole realignment mess is that the B12 folds or becomes a glorified AAC with the TV contract to match. Personally, I think the B12 survives and Kansas will make the cut into the chosen few.

No, I don't. I'm just examining the economics of such a move and comparing them to UConn's decision while contemplating the death of college sports as we knew them.

[muwarrior69]

Not right now. But after the SEC, B1G, and possibly the B12 are raptured into their own private league? Maybe.

My belief is that there will be a group of P5 schools that combine into 2 or 3 super conferences and create their own football league separate from the NCAA. Once this happens, almost all of the TV dollars will shift to that new league and that league will be what people think of when they talk about college football. The remainders, the mid-major football programs and the P5 programs that don't make the cut will be as relevant as FCS football currently is and will have the TV contract to match. I think the chosen ones will keep all other sports, including basketball, in the NCAA. At this point is when I think the Big East will have the opportunity to get more UConn style arrangements with some significant basketball powers.

So you can see Syracuse, L'ville, and Pitt returning to the BE?

[Aughnanure]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯



https://swimswam.com/source-virginia-north-carolina-florida-state-clemson-in-talks-to-join-sec/
https://twitter.com/braden_keith/status/1545054860478799873

[The Equalizer]

I devil's advocated Andrei on that one, but I disagree. Would they get the basketball revenue? Sure, but they would also have to administer the regular seasons and championships for 24 additional sports that currently the NCAA handles. If they do a full break, it would be just that, and suddenly it wouldn't be only basketball they had to address but rowing, water polo, cross country, and all the other sports that don't bring in revenue. I don't think the juice is worth the squeeze to do away with the NCAA.

The juice is most definitely worth the squeeze. 

Say there's a split along the lines of FBS vs. everyone else.

Whatever the cost of administration of regular seasons and championships for 24 sports, it will be a lot less to do so for 130 FBS programs than the NCAA spends now on 1100 teams across 3 divisions. 

And before someone suggests just folding those sports, they would have to maintain a number of them because of Title IX, which guarantees enough scholarships to at the minimum offset the 98 allotted to football and basketball. Could they significantly trim their athletic budgets by dropping a dozen or so sports? Sure, but that would create a pretty big backlash as they pocket record profits.

Why would they have to fold those sports? Whatever the NCAA currently spends on the 970 FCS, non-football D1, D2 and D3 rowing, water polo and cross country today will just be diverted to those same sports in FBS.  It would bee a boon to the FBS non-revenue sporting programs, becuase they would only have to support 130 schools--not 1100.

PT shared another graphic that just 36% of the NCAA Tourney dollars go to basketball. That means pouring the majority of those dollars into other sports. Sports that don't generate revenue. It isn't a good investment.

This is a false choice.  The majority of dollars will go into other sports regardless. 

The decision at hand is whether a handfull (in my example, the 130 FBS schools) responsible for generating the majority of the revenue decide to continue to fund the other 970 programs when that same money can support those same sports at their own programs.

[The Equalizer]

So you can see Syracuse, L'ville, and Pitt returning to the BE?

I don't see any FBS school trying to join a non-FBS conference in the current enviornment.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So you can see Syracuse, L'ville, and Pitt returning to the BE?

If all that plays out and those schools aren't ruptured, then yes.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

No, I don't. I'm just examining the economics of such a move and comparing them to UConn's decision while contemplating the death of college sports as we knew them.

You're comparing the current economics. I'm talking about post football rapture economics

[Dickthedribbler]

So you can see Syracuse, L'ville, and Pitt returning to the BE?

If the ACC does in fact implode, the reality, unbelievable as it may sound, is that some of those schools will be homeless. And the candidates are those that GENERALLY play bad football but good basketball. The SEC and the B10 have no interest in taking on additional bad football-----why would they.

I'm not predicting anything. But if the ACC implodes, a handful of those schools are going to be left out. And apparently in the brave New world of college football, if your football program is not "in", then you are "out"-----way out.And those orphans will then be confronted with the "Connecticut" decision.That MAY mean opportunity for the BE.

I would say a definite yes to Duke; a probable yes to Wake and BC and Louisville; and a a go F yourself to Pitt and Syracuse. Those 2 can go to the America East or MEAC.

[The Sultan]

I just don't see how the ACC is going to implode with the Grants of Rights issue hanging out there.

[Uncle Rico]

I just don't see how the ACC is going to implode with the Grants of Rights issue hanging out there.

Money isn't an issue in major college sports

[WhiteTrash]

Money isn't an issue in major college sports

Most would say that money IS the issue in major college sports.

[Uncle Rico]

Most would say that money IS the issue in major college sports.

That bed was made long ago and isn't being messed up

[WhiteTrash]

Possible Pac-12 ACC merger?

https://www.si.com/college/2022/07/06/acc-pac-12-espn-tv-partnership-discussions

I don't care if this happens or not, but I'd give it about a 5% chance. If I'm the ACC or ESPN and why would they partner with the 10 maybe 6 or even 4 PAC12 schools? The ACC could easily end up with less money. I'm not so sure the public is excited about Wake Forest v. Oregon State or Syracuse v. Washington State.

[The Sultan]

I don't care if this happens or not, but I'd give it about a 5% chance. If I'm the ACC or ESPN and why would they partner with the 10 maybe 6 or even 4 PAC12 schools? The ACC could easily end up with less money. I'm not so sure the public is excited about Wake Forest v. Oregon State or Syracuse v. Washington State.

Exactly.  They talked about some sort of championship game concept.  Last year that would have been Pittsburgh v. Utah. 

But even in "good" years where a highly ranked Florida State plays Oregon, is that going to draw eyeballs from the ACC or B10 championship games?

[WhiteTrash]

Exactly.  They talked about some sort of championship game concept.  Last year that would have been Pittsburgh v. Utah. 

But even in "good" years where a highly ranked Florida State plays Oregon, is that going to draw eyeballs from the ACC or B10 championship games?

Agreed. And I don't see ANY chance schools like Miami, NC, FSU, Oregon and Washington agreeing to a grant of rights. So why would ESPN pay good money for that product.