More conference realignment talk

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The ACC is not doomed. Far from it. Has a 13 year contract that serves the needs of the majority of the Conference very well.

But it doesn't serve a majority of the conference's wants. Once over half the membership has a solid invite from the Power 3, they will vote to dissolve and leave...or will threaten to dissolve in exchange for being let out of the GoR.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'd clarify this and say 'the ACC as we know it is doomed'. Just by sheer number of schools I think the brand survives without FSU, Miami, UNC, Clemson, Virginia, etc. Maybe add UCONN or SMU and then a slightly better than AAC level TV deal. Then we have the Power 3, for however long that lasts.

I think even slightly better than AAC level TV deal may be generous. The star of that football conference will be Virginia Tech at very best and depending on how bloated the Power 3 want to get, they may even get an invite.

[Herman Cain]

But it doesn't serve a majority of the conference's wants. Once over half the membership has a solid invite from the Power 3, they will vote to dissolve and leave...or will threaten to dissolve in exchange for being let out of the GoR.

I don't see the economics of the Media Companies supporting many additions to the other conferences. A careful examination of the ACC schools shows that there are only a handful that drive the Media eyeballs necessary to avoid existing dilution in other conferences . FSU in  a good year can make that case , presently their eyeballs are down because their team has not performed well.


Also, todays Reality is ACC is still paying out more than The Big 12. So its a Power 4

The windfall received from any schools  leaving the ACC will be substantial for the remaining members

Finally, over time streaming will gain more  market share versus linear TV ,and that will ultimately be the sorting device .Long term economics dictate that there will be one large FBS set up more like the NFL with schools who have most media viability. A lot of schools will go down to FCS with fewer football scholarships and lower cost structure .

[Oldgym]

Long term economics dictate that there will be one large FBS set up more like the NFL with schools who have most media viability. A lot of schools will go down to FCS with fewer football scholarships and lower cost structure .

This seems right. Someone made a point earlier that after the dust settles the B1G, OSU, Michigan, and Penn State will side-eye Northwestern and Maryland and say "ok, why are they here?"

[DFW HOYA]

Finally, over time streaming will gain more  market share versus linear TV ,and that will ultimately be the sorting device .Long term economics dictate that there will be one large FBS set up more like the NFL with schools who have most media viability. A lot of schools will go down to FCS with fewer football scholarships and lower cost structure .

Number of schools which have dropped to FCS since 1993?

One. (Idaho)

[Hards Alumni]

Number of schools which have dropped to FCS since 1993?

One. (Idaho)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90WD_ats6eE

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I don't see the economics of the Media Companies supporting many additions to the other conferences. A careful examination of the ACC schools shows that there are only a handful that drive the Media eyeballs necessary to avoid existing dilution in other conferences . FSU in  a good year can make that case , presently their eyeballs are down because their team has not performed well.

You just explained why the economics work. The networks are overpaying the ACC for mostly crap football. It is much more cost effective to kill the ACC and put the few valuable properties in the remaining 3 power conferences. It's what they did to the Big East and then the PAC 12. Why would you think the ACC will be immune?

This will take time and coordination so I don't think it will happen right away. The Power 3 can wait out the networks and wait for them to increase their incentives before making a move.

Also, todays Reality is ACC is still paying out more than The Big 12. So its a Power 4

Actually reality is that they pay out less than the Big 12: https://www.on3.com/teams/florida-state-seminoles/news/acc-schools-rank-4th-among-power-5-schools-in-average-conference-payout-for-fiscal-year-2022/. Even so, it is close enough to the Big 12 to still be considered a power conference for now. But its days are numbered.

The windfall received from any schools  leaving the ACC will be substantial for the remaining members

Probably but not nearly as much as you think. A settlement will be reached to avoid the ACC dissolving.

Finally, over time streaming will gain more  market share versus linear TV ,and that will ultimately be the sorting device .Long term economics dictate that there will be one large FBS set up more like the NFL with schools who have most media viability. A lot of schools will go down to FCS with fewer football scholarships and lower cost structure .

I could see that happening eventually. There is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to shrinking, I think that will kick in somewhere between 40-60 schools.

[Coleman]

Number of schools which have dropped to FCS since 1993?

One. (Idaho)

Schools I would not be surprised to see drop to FCS within the next 10 years, just off the top of my head....

UConn
Boston College
Duke
Wake Forest

[WhiteTrash]

Actually reality is that they pay out less than the Big 12: https://www.on3.com/teams/florida-state-seminoles/news/acc-schools-rank-4th-among-power-5-schools-in-average-conference-payout-for-fiscal-year-2022/. Even so, it is close enough to the Big 12 to still be considered a power conference for now. But its days are numbered.

I believe you meant ACC above?

The Big12 revenue per school expected to go to $50-55M per school when the new TV deal kicks in. $10M+ gap compared to the ACC and the ACC number is not going up any time soon. The gap will be significant by 2036(?).

[WhiteTrash]

Schools I would not be surprised to see drop to FCS within the next 10 years, just off the top of my head....

UConn
Boston College
Duke
Wake Forest

I would be surprised. I suppose if the ACC dissolved it would create a possibility, but even with that it would be surprising, to me.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I believe you meant ACC above?

The Big12 revenue per school expected to go to $50-55M per school when the new TV deal kicks in. $10M+ gap compared to the ACC and the ACC number is not going up any time soon. The gap will be significant by 2036(?).

No,  I'm saying the ACC is currently close enough to the Big 12 to still be considered a power conference despite being behind the other three

[MU_Beav]

Schools I would not be surprised to see drop to FCS within the next 10 years, just off the top of my head....

UConn
Boston College
Duke
Wake Forest

This won't happen.

[WhiteTrash]

No,  I'm saying the ACC is currently close enough to the Big 12 to still be considered a power conference despite being behind the other three

Oops. I misread your post. Your wording was correct, my mistake.

I agree the ACC is most definitely P4 in money and quality of teams (at the top). But, it is clear to everyone, including FSU, Miami, Clemson, etc., the revenue gap is material now and only getting worse with no path to fix the problem. 

[DFW HOYA]

Schools I would not be surprised to see drop to FCS within the next 10 years, just off the top of my head....

UConn
Boston College
Duke
Wake Forest

0.000% chance.

[forgetful]

https://twitter.com/jasonscheer/status/1689454569749893120?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

As expected, ACC is not expected to invite Cal and Stanford.

The networks want the ACC dead, no way they offer additional funds for ACC to invite new schools. Which means that any new additions means every current member taking a paycut. Maybe you can sell that to Cuse, BC, and Pitt who are desperately trying to keep the ACC together at all costs....but too many of the schools are looking for the exit. ACC is doomed.

Also, additional money per school, would require a reworked deal. The GOR only lasts as long as the current media deal, so if it is redone to allow more money, the GOR has to be revoted on.

[Herman Cain]

https://www.bronconationnews.com/mountain-west-commissioner-gloria-nevarez-ready-to-add-wash-st-and-oregon-st/

[MU82]

The Athletic's Jason Kirk on what the next big conference deal should be:

The Huge 32: What if the ACC lets Clemson and FSU leave, then merges with the Big 12 and Pac-4? That's a tidy 32, divisible into eight four-team pods. Everybody plays locals, in a top-three conference. If college sports had any adults in charge, it'd be considered. Thus it won't.

[The Sultan]

The Athletic's Jason Kirk on what the next big conference deal should be:

The Huge 32: What if the ACC lets Clemson and FSU leave, then merges with the Big 12 and Pac-4? That's a tidy 32, divisible into eight four-team pods. Everybody plays locals, in a top-three conference. If college sports had any adults in charge, it'd be considered. Thus it won't.

I like Jason Kirk, but the "if you don't do this great idea I have then you're dumb" kind of thinking isn't helpful.

The reality is that college athletics stuck to its model and chased the money for too long, and here we are. 

[Herman Cain]

Pac -12 unforced error. Do not adhere to old Wall Street adage , " Bulls get a little, Bears get a little, Hogs get slaughtered"

https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2023/08/11/pac-12-espn-media-rights-negotiations-50-million-ask-per-report

[WhiteTrash]

Pac -12 unforced error. Do not adhere to old Wall Street adage , " Bulls get a little, Bears get a little, Hogs get slaughtered"

https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2023/08/11/pac-12-espn-media-rights-negotiations-50-million-ask-per-report

Failure by the commish and the presidents. Ultimately the presidents have to own it. While the commissioners are the media darlings or whipping boys, the presidents make the calls. 

Same goes for the NCAA. The SEC commissioner and the NCAA can barley wipe the own butts without the presidents saying its okay.

[Herman Cain]

Oregon State leading the charge to preserve Pac-12 per this article

https://www.on3.com/news/oregon-state-president-statement-pac-12-rebuild-effort-future-plans-conference-realignment-jayathi-murthy-4-cal-stanford-washington/

[The Sultan]

Oregon State leading the charge to preserve Pac-12 per this article

https://www.on3.com/news/oregon-state-president-statement-pac-12-rebuild-effort-future-plans-conference-realignment-jayathi-murthy-4-cal-stanford-washington/

Best they can hope for is a merger with the MWC and the continuation of the PAC 12 name.

[Boston Warrior]

Serious question
5 years or so from now
Who gets more tv football money going forward

Miami or northwestern?
North Carolina or Vanderbilt?
Purdue or Alabama?

There seems to be a faster end game imo

[Herman Cain]

Best they can hope for is a merger with the MWC and the continuation of the PAC 12 name.

Given the current state of affairs, that would be a good outcome.

[muwarrior69]

So it looks like the PAC 12 is dead and even if they merge with the MWC there will be one less automatic qualifier and one additional at-large spot for the NCAA Championship.