2021-22 NBA Thread: The Bucks are Reigning Champs

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It's not an opinion.  It's a blatant attempt to irritate rational people.    That's fine Tower but I don't honestly think you believe this deep down.

Holmgren is viewed as having way more upside than Giannis was when he was drafted. That doesn't mean he will come anywhere near Giannis, just that crazier things have happened.

[MuggsyB]

Holmgren is viewed as having way more upside than Giannis was when he was drafted. That doesn't mean he will come anywhere near Giannis, just that crazier things have happened.

True.  Markelle Fultz and Anthony Bennett were viewed that way as well.

[Jockey]

Okay....let me gather myself.  I was in the middle of putting together a Greek salad.  You believe Holmgren's ceiling is "close" to Giannis?  Based on what exactly?  Being able to handle the ball is much different than attacking with ruthless force.  Giannis has elite athleticism.  I'm actually curious what he and Hakeem could have done if they had a basketball in their hands as a 6 yr old.

I agree with Tower.

[Jockey]

True.  Markelle Fultz and Anthony Bennett were viewed that way as well.

No they weren't. both were in very weak drafts.

[JWags85]

Holmgren is viewed as having way more upside than Giannis was when he was drafted. That doesn't mean he will come anywhere near Giannis, just that crazier things have happened.

I think thats likely the function of one being an unknown from Greece's 2nd/3rd division and the other being the #1 recruit to went to play for one of the most prominent NCAA programs

[MuggsyB]

No they weren't. both were in very weak drafts.

2013 was a weak draft, 2017 wasn't.  And I thought this was considered a weak draft?

[Jockey]

Giannis was skinny but had a much bigger frame.  I don't see Holmgren being able to put on that much size.  He wont be 195 forever, but I think he's more likely to be built like Durant his whole career than fill out.

I'm still trying to figure out why Holmgren is the unicorn with all the upside and not Jabari Smith.  Smith is 6'11, a better shooter from outside, a more polished scoring game at this point, and is a good defender with potential to be even better.  He's got bounce, not like he's flat footed.  Is 2 inches less of height than Holmgren, and 3 inches of wingspan that massive of a difference?

I think Banchero is the surest shot, his game is completely NBA ready, but Jabari feels like KG 2.0 with a better jumper.

I agree with most of this - Holmgren will probably top out at 220 with his frame. I have no problem with a team picking Smith or Holmgren #1. But there is more than a 2" difference - probably 4-5 inches.

Jabari will end up being a perennial all-star, but I don't think he comes close to being a KG. Garnett is a borderline Top 25 all-time. Holmgren - if he reaches his potential - can be a game-changer.

[Jockey]

2013 was a weak draft, 2017 wasn't.  And I thought this was considered a weak draft?

take Tatum out of 2017 and it was a brutally bad draft.

[JWags85]

I agree with most of this - Holmgren will probably top out at 220 with his frame. I have no problem with a team picking Smith or Holmgren #1. But there is more than a 2" difference - probably 4-5 inches.

Jabari will end up being a perennial all-star, but I don't think he comes close to being a KG. Garnett is a borderline Top 25 all-time. Holmgren - if he reaches his potential - can be a game-changer.

Are you talking height?  Cause he's all of 6'10.  Chet isn't taller than 7' or they would make a big deal of it.  And his wingspan is listed at 7'2 and Chet is 7'5.

And of course I don't think he'll become KG.  KG was a generational talent who played unlike almost anyone.  But he has that sort of game.  He's a better version of Jaren Jackson Jr

take Tatum out of 2017 and it was a brutally bad draft.

I think thats a bit revisionist.  At the time, the hype over Lonzo was huge.  Then Tatum.  Josh Jackson was one of the highest rated recruit of all time by 24/7 and then had a great year at KU.  Fox had a ton of hype after a great year and lost SEC POY to his own teammate.  Thats a strong top 5.  Plus the deserved buzz around Lauri and Dennis Smith Jr.  The only speculative reaches in the top 10 were Isaac and Zach Collins.  Malik Monk was thought to be an NBA ready sniper too.

The draft class underachieved MIGHTILY. Only a single All Star in the top 12 stinks.  But it wasn't viewed as a weak or bad draft at all at the time.

[MuggsyB]

take Tatum out of 2017 and it was a brutally bad draft.

Look at the players 10-30.   

[brewcity77]

He has the greatest upside.  But I'm still not completely sold.   Will he gain weight and be able to pick and pop?

Who's the last NBA prospect that failed because they were too skinny? Too big, unable to control their weight, sure, but I don't remember many guys that were too thin to succeed.

[MuggsyB]

Who's the last NBA prospect that failed because they were too skinny? Too big, unable to control their weight, sure, but I don't remember many guys that were too thin to succeed.

I can't recall a 7 footer in recent years at 190 lbs but I'm sure I'm missing someone.

[Hards Alumni]

Who's the last NBA prospect that failed because they were too skinny? Too big, unable to control their weight, sure, but I don't remember many guys that were too thin to succeed.

Shawn Bradley is widely considered a bust.

[wadesworld]

There are plenty of guys who could've been pros if they were stronger/more physical.  Think of how much better Dawson Garcia would've been his freshman year if he was able to finish through any bit of contact.  He'd have been a one and done.  There are those kinds of guys everywhere in college basketball.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Thon Maker was 7'0", 210 when he was drafted. He had nowhere near the offensive game that Holmgren has - but that is not where I think Holmgren will struggle.

I think he struggles on the defensive end. Sure he will have his moments, but as with Maker, teams are going to relentlessly attack him to get him off the floor in foul trouble.  You saw a preview of that during the Arkansas game in the Sweet 16.

[Uncle Rico]

Thon Maker was 7'0", 210 when he was drafted. He had nowhere near the offensive game that Holmgren has - but that is not where I think Holmgren will struggle.

I think he struggles on the defensive end. Sure he will have his moments, but as with Maker, teams are going to relentlessly attack him to get him off the floor in foul trouble.  You saw a preview of that during the Arkansas game in the Sweet 16.

I’ve been told no one plays defense in the NBA unlike the college game, so he should be fine

[tower912]

If you watched the playoffs, you would have seen some of the best help and recover defensive schemes imaginable.   Offensively, they are so good it seems like no one is playing defense.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

If you watched the playoffs, you would have seen some of the best help and recover defensive schemes imaginable.   Offensively, they are so good it seems like no one is playing defense.

Pretty sure Rico was doing his "teal without teal" schtick.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Here's my tier 1 of this draft:

1. Paolo Banchero
The best chance to be a number 1 offensive option in this draft.  Elite handles for his size and very good court mapping.  Questions about his defense, but I think he has the tools to be serviceable.  Better than Julius Randle, not as good as Giannis.

2. Chet Holmgren
Elite defensive impact but I only see a complementary scorer.  Great fit for OKC as a pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop threat. Marcus Camby with a jumpshot. Weight is obviously the main concern.

3. Jabari Smith
Elite shooting and above average defender. I'm not convinced he can create his own shot or distribute as well as Banchero.  If that develops, he could be the best player of this draft. But right now I'm getting Rashard Lewis vibes.

4. Jaden Ivey
Elite speed and leaping ability gives him a huge upside, but I think he's farther away than the top 3. Improved 3 point shooting, but still kinda suspect.  No midrange game, weak left hand, and bad defense.  But the athleticism gives him as much upside as anyone in the draft.  As a prospect, I think he's similar to Russell Westbrook coming out of college. Can he improve at the same rate?

Any of these four could wind up the best player in this draft, but they all have pretty significant question marks.

[Uncle Rico]

Pretty sure Rico was doing his "teal without teal" schtick.

Sorry, thought this was Buckyville

[tower912]

I love Rico.   And I got his joke. 

[brewcity77]

Shawn Bradley is widely considered a bust.

Bradley definitely didn't live up to his draft position, but I'm not sure being too thin was the reason. He came in 45 pounds heavier than Chet and was able to bulk up. He was just inconsistent.

And if we have to dig back two decades to find one example, that wouldn't be something that gives me pause. The talk around Chet reminds me a lot of the talk around Durant coming out. He was too skinny, he wasn't strong enough (zero reps of 225), he was going to get pushed around, and all he's done since then is win Rookie of the Year, become a perennial All-Star and All-NBA player, and be named to the Top-75 list.

Not saying Chet will be Durant, but dismissing him because of something that at best rarely holds anyone back seems like a mistake. I'm not sure who will end up best, my vote would probably be Chet with Jabari Smith a very close second. I love Chet's unique abilities, but think Smith's skillset is tailored perfectly to today's NBA. Banchero and Ivey should be fine, but I see them as more likely 2nd or 3rd best players on a good team than potential alphas.

[lawdog77]

Here's my tier 1 of this draft:

1. Paolo Banchero
The best chance to be a number 1 offensive option in this draft.  Elite handles for his size and very good court mapping.  Questions about his defense, but I think he has the tools to be serviceable.  Better than Julius Randle, not as good as Giannis.

2. Chet Holmgren
Elite defensive impact but I only see a complementary scorer.  Great fit for OKC as a pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop threat. Marcus Camby with a jumpshot. Weight is obviously the main concern.

3. Jabari Smith
Elite shooting and above average defender. I'm not convinced he can create his own shot or distribute as well as Banchero.  If that develops, he could be the best player of this draft. But right now I'm getting Rashard Lewis vibes.

4. Jaden Ivey
Elite speed and leaping ability gives him a huge upside, but I think he's farther away than the top 3. Improved 3 point shooting, but still kinda suspect.  No midrange game, weak left hand, and bad defense.  But the athleticism gives him as much upside as anyone in the draft.  As a prospect, I think he's similar to Russell Westbrook coming out of college. Can he improve at the same rate?

Any of these four could wind up the best player in this draft, but they all have pretty significant question marks.

Do "experts" think Holmgren is elite defensively?

[wadesworld]

Bradley definitely didn't live up to his draft position, but I'm not sure being too thin was the reason. He came in 45 pounds heavier than Chet and was able to bulk up. He was just inconsistent.

And if we have to dig back two decades to find one example, that wouldn't be something that gives me pause. The talk around Chet reminds me a lot of the talk around Durant coming out. He was too skinny, he wasn't strong enough (zero reps of 225), he was going to get pushed around, and all he's done since then is win Rookie of the Year, become a perennial All-Star and All-NBA player, and be named to the Top-75 list.

Not saying Chet will be Durant, but dismissing him because of something that at best rarely holds anyone back seems like a mistake. I'm not sure who will end up best, my vote would probably be Chet with Jabari Smith a very close second. I love Chet's unique abilities, but think Smith's skillset is tailored perfectly to today's NBA. Banchero and Ivey should be fine, but I see them as more likely 2nd or 3rd best players on a good team than potential alphas.

The difference was Durant's biggest skill was his scoring ability.  Chet's biggest skill is his rim protection and then rebounding and putting it on the floor to initiate the break.  Chet couldn't handle the physicality of Memphis and Alabama.  Both teams took away his rim protection by going right into his body, putting him under the rim, and finishing through weak contact.  That's a problem.  Nobody was ever able to take away Kevin Durant's ability to get to his spots and score in college because he wasn't strong enough.

[brewcity77]

The difference was Durant's biggest skill was his scoring ability.  Chet's biggest skill is his rim protection and then rebounding and putting it on the floor to initiate the break.  Chet couldn't handle the physicality of Memphis and Alabama.  Both teams took away his rim protection by going right into his body, putting him under the rim, and finishing through weak contact.  That's a problem.  Nobody was ever able to take away Kevin Durant's ability to get to his spots and score in college because he wasn't strong enough.

Sure, but if we're going to look specifically at rim protection, that wasn't a problem for the aforementioned Bradley. It remained a strength in the NBA. He did lead the league in blocks once and holds the single-season blocks record for both the 76ers and Mavericks (actually all of the top-5 Mavs single seasons).

His rebounding and block numbers were also still high in both of the games you mention and his Tier A+B rebounding and block numbers are right on track with his overall numbers, so it's not like he wilted in the face of tough opposition. Will he have to add strength to not be bullied by the Embiid/Giannis/Jokic types? Sure. But that's the case for literally everyone entering the NBA, and some players who have already been in that league for years.