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Author Topic: Big East Poll and NET rankings  (Read 23522 times)

brewcity77

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #200 on: February 25, 2021, 10:29:42 AM »
DePaul back down to Q4 status.

Best thing for the conference would be for St. John's, Providence, Marquette, and DePaul to keep winning.

For the conference? Aside from playing each other, St John's plays Seton Hall, Providence plays Villanova, Marquette plays UConn and Xavier, and DePaul...just plays Georgetown. DPU beating Georgetown would be good for us, but any of those other teams winning would likely cost the Big East bids as Seton Hall, UConn, and Xavier are all bubble teams that can't afford losses to teams out of the field, and it's highly unlikely any of the teams you list can get into the at-large conversation.
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brewcity77

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #201 on: February 25, 2021, 10:44:46 AM »
TRank agrees. https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Marquette&year=2021

I ran the numbers a few years ago and while a fun tool, Teamcast is terrible for predictions.

Adding a win over Georgetown would be very useful if Marquette won out the regular season. It won't move the resume dial, but entering the Big East Tournament at 15-12 would mean needing just one win to guarantee being +3 in the win column. That combined with what would be at least 4-5 Q1 wins would look good on the resume. Overall record matters, which is why Penn State isn't in the mix and teams like Indiana, Minnesota, and Seton Hall are on shaky ground.
@Theojohn123: We are about change. If you can’t support us here. I ask you Please don’t support us on the court. #mubb #BlackLivesMatter

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drewm88

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #202 on: February 25, 2021, 11:04:41 AM »
I ran the numbers a few years ago and while a fun tool, Teamcast is terrible for predictions.

I'll take your word for it. Any idea if he's improved it since then?

brewcity77

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #203 on: February 25, 2021, 03:42:42 PM »
I'll take your word for it. Any idea if he's improved it since then?

I'm not sure why it seems tough, but tools like this (or the old RPI Forecast site) struggle to adequately track futures. They often overvalue past results.

My suspicion is predictors like this struggle to account for all the various metrics. It might factor T-Rank & WAB okay, but I imagine it struggles with NET, SOR, kenpom, and others that play more of a role for the committee.

Another problem I suspect is that you are simply projecting W/L results. So forecasting last night's win would've likely expected a 1-point win in the program, and thus factor Marquette 10 points better than expected rather than the 22 points better the result actually produced.

A third problem I suspect is not accounting for the secondary impact of predicted results. Say you project MU to beat UNC, UConn, Xavier, and SHU (in the BET), the model will predict for Marquette. But does it also factor the extra loss for those other teams, losses that a neutral model would predict as wins? If not, that's a big blind spot.

Could be any number of reasons, but after having a lot of fun with those types of predictors early on, I now avoid them like the plague. The magic bullet was when I used one to predict an undefeated season for a Marquette team that was seen as a bubble team early on & the predictor told me that unbeaten season would result in a 4-seed. Made me curious enough to track them more in depth, then swear off them entirely.
@Theojohn123: We are about change. If you can’t support us here. I ask you Please don’t support us on the court. #mubb #BlackLivesMatter

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The Big East

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #204 on: February 26, 2021, 08:04:58 AM »
Big East NET rankings as of games of February 25, 2021

New  Old
8   8   Villanova   
20   20   Creighton   
43   41   UConn   
53   54   Seton Hall   
58   59   Xavier   
76   77   St. John's
79   80   Providence   
85   86   Marquette   
97   99   Georgetown
131   130   Butler   
164   161   DePaul   

MarquetteMike1977

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #205 on: February 26, 2021, 05:33:23 PM »
Marquette’s BPI Ranking is 73 Today and MU’s Kenpom Ranking is 75 Today.

Ardmore Mug

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #206 on: February 26, 2021, 06:05:32 PM »
BIG win at NC on Wed ! ! !   8-)

Lennys Tap

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #207 on: February 26, 2021, 06:30:44 PM »
Marquette’s BPI Ranking is 73 Today and MU’s Kenpom Ranking is 75 Today.

Key reversal? Fingers crossed!

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #208 on: February 26, 2021, 06:40:30 PM »
Marquette’s BPI Ranking is 73 Today and MU’s Kenpom Ranking is 75 Today.

Let’s see them rattle off 4-5 more Ws in a row and see where the chips fall. May as well enjoy it while good basketball is being played!
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

The Big East

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #209 on: February 27, 2021, 09:39:46 AM »
Big East Net Rankings as of Games of February 26,2021
New  Old
8   8   Villanova   
18   20   Creighton   
42   43   UConn   
54   53   Seton Hall   
57   58   Xavier   
75   76   St. John's
79   79   Providence   
87   85   Marquette   
97   97   Georgetown   
128   131   Butler   
163   164   DePaul   

TAMU Eagle

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #210 on: February 27, 2021, 09:58:22 AM »
Back up to 4 Q1 wins with St. John's sneaking into the top 75.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

The Big East

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #211 on: February 28, 2021, 07:57:11 AM »
Big East Net Rankings as of games of February 27, 2021
New  Old

8   8   Villanova   
24   18   Creighton   
36   42   UConn   
48   57   Xavier   
54   54   Seton Hall   
73   75   St. John's
78   79   Providence
89   87   Marquette   
96   97   Georgetown   
131   128   Butler   
166   163   DePaul   


WarriorPride68

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #212 on: February 28, 2021, 08:04:32 AM »
10th place in horrid big East. Thought the UNC win was maybe some optimism. Back to having doubts about Depaul game again

Mr. Nielsen

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #213 on: February 28, 2021, 12:49:22 PM »
Horrid.  ::)
If we are all thinking alike, we're not thinking at all. It's OK to disagree. Just don't be disagreeable.
-Bill Walton

The Big East

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #214 on: March 01, 2021, 07:44:37 AM »
Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 28, 2021
New  Old
11   8   Villanova   
23   24   Creighton   
36   36   UConn   
48   48   Xavier   
53   54   Seton Hall
73   73   St. John's
79   78   Providence   
88   89   Marquette   
96   96   Georgetown   
117   131   Butler   
166   166   DePaul   

MU82

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #215 on: March 01, 2021, 07:45:09 AM »
Back in the Elite 88, baby!
Welcome to Marquette, Shaka. Be a warrior!

WarriorPride68

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #216 on: March 01, 2021, 11:30:21 AM »
Horrid.  ::)

Big East is bad this year, no?

The Big East

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #217 on: March 01, 2021, 01:52:49 PM »
Big East Poll Rankings March 1, 2021
AP
10. Villanova
14. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes - U Conn
Coaches
9. Villanova
12. Creighton
Others Receiving Votes- U Conn, Xavier

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #218 on: March 01, 2021, 01:58:16 PM »
Big East is bad this year, no?

Its definitely not as good at it has been.  Horrid is probably a bit aggressive, tho. 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

Mr. Nielsen

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #219 on: March 01, 2021, 07:01:32 PM »
Big East is bad this year, no?

Horrid is different than bad. Yet, both don't describe the Big East Conference this year or most likely ever.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2021, 07:04:44 PM by Mr. Nielsen »
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MarquetteMike1977

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #220 on: March 01, 2021, 10:55:40 PM »
Arkansas Pine Bluff losing in OT in conference tourney and Green Bay losing in 1st round in 2OT in conference tournament are not helping Marquette ugh.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #221 on: March 01, 2021, 11:44:50 PM »
Arkansas Pine Bluff losing in OT in conference tourney and Green Bay losing in 1st round in 2OT in conference tournament are not helping Marquette ugh.

I'm surprised UWGB stayed in it. Baby Bo has had like half of his team transfer in the past week.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

The Big East

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #222 on: March 02, 2021, 08:21:47 AM »
Big East NET rankings as of games of March 1, 2021
New  Old
11   11   Villanova   
23   23   Creighton   
35   36   UConn
50   48   Xavier   
53   53   Seton Hall   
73   73   St. John's
79   79   Providence   
88   88   Marquette   
96   96   Georgetown   
116   117   Butler   
166   166   DePaul   

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #223 on: March 02, 2021, 09:24:23 AM »
Arkansas Pine Bluff losing in OT in conference tourney and Green Bay losing in 1st round in 2OT in conference tournament are not helping Marquette ugh.

Just out curiosity, how does that affect Marquette in the slightest? 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

brewcity77

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Re: Big East Poll and NET rankings
« Reply #224 on: March 02, 2021, 10:33:09 AM »
Just out curiosity, how does that affect Marquette in the slightest?

UAPB really doesn't. They were underdogs and forcing OT probably helped them. Green Bay was a favorite and winning would've given them the chance to win again and improve our NET. Though ultimately, I doubt it has much impact.
@Theojohn123: We are about change. If you can’t support us here. I ask you Please don’t support us on the court. #mubb #BlackLivesMatter

https://twitter.com/theojohn123/status/1268335482305425413?s=21

 

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