Vote!

[MU82]

Many of those who argue for the Electoral College and against a popular-vote system that would have each vote count the exact same also argue for a flat income tax because "everybody should be taxed the same rate."

I think we have reached the point where the Electoral College has outlived its usefulness. Every 4 years, it gives a relatively small percentage of the population an out-of-proportion say in who the president will be. If it favored Democrats, Republicans would be crying every cycle about how "rigged" it is, and they would do everything in their power to change it.

Having said all that ...

The Electoral College IS the way we choose our president. So I have never been one to say something like, "Trump actually lost in 2016" or "Bush actually lost in 2000." They won what they had to win. They won using the method in place to determine a winner. They campaigned the way they needed to in order to win using the rules as they existed.

Of course, I do remember that in 2012, it looked for a little while like Obama might win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote, and the folks on Fox News talked about it as if Obama had just spread anthrax on the entire American population, but that's neither here nor there.

[brewcity77]

Nothing laughable about the Electoral College.  Without it, California, New York, and Chicago would decide the elections and the great "flyover states" would become disenfranchised.

This old trope is patently false. People always argue "politicians will ignore X, Y, and Z" if we eliminate the Electoral College, but there's no actual cogent argument for it. If that was the case, why would Trump or Biden go to anywhere but the largest cities in the states that matter? They go all over the states they prioritize.

Further, in this calendar year, Donald Trump has only visited 27 states. In the past two months, it's just 19 states. So the idea that other communities are ignored or disenfranchised is already a reality. 23 states received no presidential visit and 31 received none in the last two months of the so-called "most important election of our lifetimes."

Of his 162 visits, nearly half (80) went to just 5 states. So don't pretend the Electoral College doesn't already disenfranchise the vast majority of voters. It does by making some votes more important than others. It's a bald-faced lie designed to entrench minority rule in this country and to lessen the power of votes in large population states.

Feel free to check any of the math yourself:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_trips_made_by_Donald_Trump_(2020)

[shoothoops]

This. During my lifetime I have lived in three traditional battleground states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota), one Democratic stronghold (Washington), and two traditional Republican strongholds (Utah and Texas). Personally, I always vote, but when I lived in the strongholds, I knew many people whose political views were opposite the state they lived in who never bother to vote because they feel like their vote is worthless. Its an unintended consequence of the electoral college.

My bold prediction is that within the next 20 years, Texas is going to become a democratic stronghold. The rural areas here are dying and the major cities are some of the fastest growing in the country. The rate of immigration and transplants from other states far exceeds the birth rate of native Texans. If that does happen, Democrats will start every election with close to 200 electoral votes in the bag. At that point, I think we will see some major changes to the current party systems.

Georgia and North Carolina are on a similar path.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

This. During my lifetime I have lived in three traditional battleground states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota), one Democratic stronghold (Washington), and two traditional Republican strongholds (Utah and Texas). Personally, I always vote, but when I lived in the strongholds, I knew many people whose political views were opposite the state they lived in who never bother to vote because they feel like their vote is worthless. Its an unintended consequence of the electoral college.

This is what i was getting at.  I actually don't care about the electoral college as much as the fact it should be applied proportionately (proportionately by state would be fine) vs. winner take all.

If Wyoming or RI gets some extra juice because we still like the idea of the importance of states, fine.  The bigger issue is your vote doesn't really matter for president much of the time unless you live in a handful of states.

[brewcity77]

You know I knew this already, but I don't think I've ever put together how astonishing this is. Democrats have won the popular vote in 6 out of the last 7 elections but have only won the presidency in 4 out of the last 7 elections.

I wonder what would happen if the tables were turned?

If Biden wins the popular vote, it would mark four straight years that the same party won the popular vote. I believe that either ties or breaks the record. It would also mark 7/8 elections where the same party won the popular vote, which I am certain is a record.

[MU82]

My bold prediction is that within the next 20 years, Texas is going to become a democratic stronghold. The rural areas here are dying and the major cities are some of the fastest growing in the country. The rate of immigration and transplants from other states far exceeds the birth rate of native Texans. If that does happen, Democrats will start every election with close to 200 electoral votes in the bag. At that point, I think we will see some major changes to the current party systems.

It's not that bold a prediction, TAMU. It's simply happening, it's plain ol' math, and it will make it impossible for the Republicans to win the presidency. Impossible.

Then we'll see how many of the folks who are arguing in favor of the Electoral College now will be changing their tune.

"It's unfair how the leftists are using an outdated system to steal this election! It's rigged!"

[shoothoops]

DC Federal Judge Emmet Sullivan USPS ruling:

https://twitter.com/ZoeTillman/status/1322245662705094667?s=19

[shoothoops]

FBI investigating robocalls falsely telling people they can vote tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/ericgeller/status/1323682887502303236?s=19

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Jonah Goldberg had a good line in a column I linked earlier in the thread:

Real America is “flyover country,” a term used more by those who resent it than by those who actually use it as a term of derision. In today’s Republican mythology, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and San Francisco and other major cities are home to the elites — or, if you include the shores of Lake Michigan, the even more hated “coastal elites.”

I'm sorry I missed that quote.  Spot on.

[shoothoops]

Milwaukee turnout:

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1323690337152454662?s=19

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

This. During my lifetime I have lived in three traditional battleground states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota), one Democratic stronghold (Washington), and two traditional Republican strongholds (Utah and Texas). Personally, I always vote, but when I lived in the strongholds, I knew many people whose political views were opposite the state they lived in who never bother to vote because they feel like their vote is worthless. Its an unintended consequence of the electoral college.

My bold prediction is that within the next 20 years, Texas is going to become a democratic stronghold. The rural areas here are dying and the major cities are some of the fastest growing in the country. The rate of immigration and transplants from other states far exceeds the birth rate of native Texans. If that does happen, Democrats will start every election with close to 200 electoral votes in the bag. At that point, I think we will see some major changes to the current party systems.

TAMU - It may even be as soon as this year.  FWIW, Charlie Cook predicted Texas for Biden last night in his final pre-election crystal ball.  Georgia & North Carolina headed the same direction as shoothoops said.  (Florida will always be Florida.)  When it happens it's game over for Republicans and they won't have the electoral college to save them anymore.   

[jesmu84]

If traditionally republican strongholds are leaking Democrat (GA, TX, AZ) then are any Democrat strongholds turning GOP?

Or is this a population trend? If so, I'd imagine GOP will try to suppress lots of local Dem votes or agree to a system change.

Lastly, I'd also argue the highest ranking Dems today - the more corporatist, neoliberal pols - are more 80s/90s moderate GOP in their policy platforms than actual left Dems. Which, IMO, is sad. But also makes them more palatable for TX, GA, AZ, etc conservative voters.

[forgetful]

For those saying the electoral college is good.

What happens when Biden gets over 50% of the popular vote. Wins the popular vote by 6-10M votes, and loses the election?

[MU82]

For those saying the electoral college is good.

What happens when Biden gets over 50% of the popular vote. Wins the popular vote by 6-10M votes, and loses the election?

I think most of those saying the Electoral College is good would think Biden losing in that scenario is just peachy.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

For those saying the electoral college is good.

What happens when Biden gets over 50% of the popular vote. Wins the popular vote by 6-10M votes, and loses the election?

Sometime ago I saw a chart that laid-out percentage win vs. popular vote. 
I seem to recall a 6-10M vote spread meant you were winning the electoral college also.

[GooooMarquette]

Sometime ago I saw a chart that laid-out percentage win vs. popular vote. 
I seem to recall a 6-10M vote spread meant you were winning the electoral college also.

I feel like I saw that too...but that's just a projection based on state by state polling and then extension of that to the Electoral College. We've seen before how wrong polls can be, so I would take any such projection with a grain of salt.

[forgetful]

Sometime ago I saw a chart that laid-out percentage win vs. popular vote. 
I seem to recall a 6-10M vote spread meant you were winning the electoral college also.

I think normally that would be the case. But if projected turnout is as high as some people are saying, you might see Biden really run up numbers in states he wins, and then lose close elections in TX, Georgia, Florida, NC, and Pennsylvania.

The close margins, especially in places like TX, could allow him to easily double Clinton's margin of 3M votes, and then some.

Especially if reports of places like Milwaukee hitting 80-90% voter turnout.

[Galway Eagle]

Results coming in

[TSmith34, Inc.]

De Joy ignores court order, gives big middle finger to law. I mean, why not cheat when you are never held accountable?

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1323761876870705152

[Pakuni]

De Joy ignores court order, gives big middle finger to law. I mean, why not cheat when you are never held accountable?

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1323761876870705152

Scott MacFarlane
@MacFarlaneNews
BREAKING:  DC federal judge agrees to give US Postal Service more time to sweep for possible missing ballots in mail processing centers in Pennsylvania, Colorado, Michigan, etc.   USPS said it couldn't complete sweeps by 3pm, as ordered

[MU82]

Annnnd here we go ...

Armed Trump supporter told to leave NC voting site. He was arrested when he came back.



https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/state/north-carolina/article246933672.html?ac_cid=DM315602&ac_bid=-1551549309

[DegenerateDish]

Trump is down to -110 in the offshores, Biden from -210 to now -120. Exchanges have Biden as a 40 cent favorite, down from about 90 cents an hour ago.

[Hards Alumni]

Trump is down to -110 in the offshores, Biden from -210 to now -120. Exchanges have Biden as a 40 cent favorite, down from about 90 cents an hour ago.

Because these returns are not good for Biden.

[Pakuni]

Because these returns are not good for Biden.

If - and it's definitely an if - Ohio and North Carolina stay where they are, these returns are actually quite good for Biden. He'll trade those two for Florida 100 times out of 100.

[DegenerateDish]

For the first time, Trump now betting favorite at the offshores and has a 40 cent lead in the exchanges.