Vote!

[jesmu84]

The Hispanic/latino vote was kind of shocking

[CreightonWarrior]

Biden back to a heavy favorite on the betting sites.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It looks like Biden is going to carry Nevada and Wisconsin (though I think we can expect recounts in both). It also looks like Trump will likely carry North Carolina and Georgia (though a higher than average blue shift with the last 5% could change both or either).

Assuming the above paragraph is correct. It's down to Michigan and Pennsylvania. Biden wins either, that's all she wrote. Trump leads in both but I expect significant blue shift in both states as absentee votes are counted....and his lead in Michigan is down to .3%.

[jesmu84]

Sure looks like Biden at this point - WI, MI, PA. Even now the favorite on betting sites.

Barring a court decision from Trump, of course

[Pakuni]

The Hispanic/latino vote was kind of shocking

Yeah, apparently the ads in South Florida making Biden/Harris seem the second coming of Castro/Guevara were effective.
Credit the Trump campaign. They aren't dummies.

[jesmu84]

Yeah, apparently the ads in South Florida making Biden/Harris seem the second coming of Castro/Guevara were effective.
Credit the Trump campaign. They aren't dummies.

Doesn't quite explain other states like Ohio though

[The Sultan]

The Hispanic/latino vote was kind of shocking

I actually don't think it's that shocking.  As I mentioned earlier, the "family values" of many in that community line up pretty solid with Republicans.  And immigration was nowhere near part of the national conversation on this election.

[jesmu84]

I actually don't think it's that shocking.  As I mentioned earlier, the "family values" of many in that community line up pretty solid with Republicans.  And immigration was nowhere near part of the national conversation on this election.

So the immigration discussion in the last election is why Hillary won such a greater percentage?

[The Sultan]

My observations from working the polls - in a ward that went about 60% Democratic.

**Very little "election gear" at all.  I saw one MAGA hat and about three BLM shirts.
**Almost everyone was polite, if not just downright nice.  No arguments.  No one over-the-top.  Very respectful.
**No guns.  No militias.  No one blocking access to the polls.
**It's very hard for people who move a lot to prove where they live.
**A significant portion of the population has no idea how to fill out a ballot.  It was enlightening.

[The Sultan]

So the immigration discussion in the last election is why Hillary won such a greater percentage?

That is what I am thinking.  But WTF do I know.

[Galway Eagle]

Pipe burst at the largest county in GA that happened to be a super polling place? Why does such weird stuff happen in this country for elections?

[shoothoops]

The Hispanic vote is plural not singular. It is very diverse, and many different types of Hispanics in many different types of geographies vote differently for different reasons.

Biden was more successful in the Southwest, Nevada, Arizona, than some of the others, such as Cuban/Venezuelan parts of Florida. Even in Florida, that will differ with more Puerto Rican Orlando etc...

The first thing to know and understand about Hispanic voters is that it is a diverse group of many types of voters.

[Pakuni]

So the immigration discussion in the last election is why Hillary won such a greater percentage?

If I'm not mistaken, Hillary lost Latino support as well, compared to 2012.
Fluffy hit the nail on the head about Latinos being more socially conservative than many groups.
I think another factor is that Latino men have a lot in common with Trump's base - white men without college degrees - and what appeals to them about Trump is largely the same.

That said, Biden is still going to win 60-65 percent of the Latino vote, it seems, in most places outside South Florida.

[brewcity77]

The Hispanic vote is plural not singular. It is very diverse, and many different types of Hispanics in many different types of geographies vote differently for different reasons.

Biden was more successful in the Southwest, Nevada, Arizona, than some of the others, such as Cuban/Venezuelan parts of Florida. Even in Florida, that will differ with more Puerto Rican Orlando etc...

The first thing to know and understand about Hispanic voters is that it is a diverse group of many types of voters.

This exactly. My MIL was complaining about the Latino vote in Florida and started talking about Trump's comments on Mexicans. I had to explain that Mexicans and the Cubans in Miami-Dade are vastly different with different values and voting priorities.

[shoothoops]

This exactly. My MIL was complaining about the Latino vote in Florida and started talking about Trump's comments on Mexicans. I had to explain that Mexicans and the Cubans in Miami-Dade are vastly different with different values and voting priorities.

Yep, and I would add that many people, including, those running for office, don't have a good enough grasp of the differences and complexities within the wide variances of Hispanic voting. It is very complex and nuanced and not simplistic. Who was talking about Evangelical Cubans in the past? etc...

[shoothoops]

Short Bernie Sanders clip where he predicts the possible election outcome long before election night.

https://twitter.com/hannahhycho/status/1323851835199811587?s=19

[The Sultan]

Well, regardless if Biden pulls this out or not, I will say that guru was more right than most pollsters were about the turnout and what that would mean.  A better handling of the pandemic and Trump wins this in a landslide. 

And if Biden loses, the Democrats need to understand why Obama and Trump were two time winners, and why their last two candidates were uninspired.

[Galway Eagle]

Well, regardless if Biden pulls this out or not, I will say that guru was more right than most pollsters were about the turnout and what that would mean.  A better handling of the pandemic and Trump wins this in a landslide. 

And if Biden loses, the Democrats need to understand why Obama and Trump were two time winners, and why their last two candidates were uninspired.

This. Unfortunately the most inspiring are also probably too far left to have a legitimate shot right now

[shoothoops]

Well, regardless if Biden pulls this out or not, I will say that guru was more right than most pollsters were about the turnout and what that would mean.  A better handling of the pandemic and Trump wins this in a landslide. 

And if Biden loses, the Democrats need to understand why Obama and Trump were two time winners, and why their last two candidates were uninspired.

We'll wait for all votes to be counted. But it would appear Biden will win, and, it's possible that number could get well into the 300's in the Electoral College.

I don't think one can say so simply that DT would have won in a landslide if not for the Pandemic. While the President and his administration's handling of the Pandemic has been an abomination, yes, I believe if we have learned one thing, it is that people vote for a wide variety of reasons.

[Galway Eagle]

We'll wait for all votes to be counted. But it would appear Biden will win, and, it's possible that number could get well into the 300's in the Electoral College.

I don't think one can say so simply that DT would have won in a landslide if not for the Pandemic. While the President and his administration's handling of the Pandemic has been an abomination, yes, I believe if we have learned one thing, it is that people vote for a wide variety of reasons.

300s? I'm just hoping he edges things out in NV WI and MI to get to 270

[brewcity77]

300s? I'm just hoping he edges things out in NV WI and MI to get to 270

Based on what's left, those three look solidly to be in Biden's camp. Not huge margins, but remaining votes are in urban centers.

He'll hit 270 and have a solid popular vote margin (5-7M) but it won't be the electoral landslide that looked possible, even if Georgia & Pennsylvania tip blue.

Regardless, seems unlikely the Senate will be aligned with Biden.

[Galway Eagle]

What are you all using to track right now?

I've got cnn, Fox, and Huff post open. CNN seems like it's lagging. Fox seems to be most up to date with votes but if I can avoid using it I will.

[Pakuni]

300s? I'm just hoping he edges things out in NV WI and MI to get to 270

290 seems possible, if early and mail ballots on PA trend the way they have so far.
300+ would take extraordinary numbers in the Atlanta suburbs, which is improbable.

[shoothoops]

300s? I'm just hoping he edges things out in NV WI and MI to get to 270

I didn't say he would, but I said it is possible with NC and GA in play. Many of the Fulton County outstanding votes are expected to be heavy Biden for example. (JB needs 100k+ to win) NC allows mail in ballots post marked day of election. (JB needs 76k+)

I also should have added that Biden will win the popular vote by millions more than Hillary Clinton did four years ago.

And yes, under the current system 270 on the nose is all that matters and is all that is needed for someone to win.

Pennsylvania for example allows people to post mark their ballots on election day. 1.4 million votes are outstanding. Thus far 71% of those have been for Biden.

It will take several days and all of the votes will get counted.

I chose my clarifying words carefully, such as "possible" here or "likely" there etc...

We'll see. I will say that many polls and models have been off and incorrect while some others have been more accurate. It's important for people to identify the specifics of those things as opposed to broad statements. All models, all polls is too strong.

I believe that 65% of voters voted. That's more than the 62% of 2008. 1963 was 63%. So it's a historically high turnout.

It's fair to say that DT has had a consistent 40 plus percent approval rating popularity. Not better or worse, amazingly consistent. It's fair to say millions and millions of people voted for him twice. I don't discount any of that.

Republicans wouldn't allow mailed ballots to be counted as they came in this past month in some of the outstanding states to be counted. There really isn't any positive/productive reason to do that.

So we count all of the votes.

[Hards Alumni]

Well none of what happens today matters if the Dem's don't pull off the Senate.  Without the Senate, Biden is hamstrung with a tanked economy, covid, and general unrest.  Without the senate he can't fix any of this, and the Dems will get rolled in 2022 and 2024 could be a total blowout.

Lose by winning.