Bracketology 2019-2020

[GoldenDieners32]

I also wouldn't hate this specific draw to get to the second weekend. As much as Press Virginia can be intimidating in the past, this team has lost to St. Johns and Kansas State.

I would love to see Markus shred McCabe

[brewcity77]

Umm mu beat butler and iowas has absolutely gotten their doors blown off twice.  Why shouldnt MU be ahead of Iowa, what has iowa done this entire year that is impressive?  Big ten overhyped because half the broadcasters and writers are big ten grads

In the Top-16 reveal, the Committee explicitly said Iowa was among three teams they considered for the top-16. At the time I posted that, all that had happened was Iowa won a game. Marquette beat Butler, but Iowa did nothing to jeopardize their standing.

Again, at the time, Iowa had more Q1A wins and the same number of Q1+2 wins as Marquette. I like Marquette's resume a little better, but that may be personal bias, the developments since (losing at Indiana sticks out), and prioritizing total Q1 wins, but when the Committee said "Iowa was right there" it means they were at worst 19th at the time and they won their next game.

I feel like anyone having MU ahead of Iowa is basically the kid who turned in their homework, the teacher corrected it & gave them another chance to turn it in using the answer key, and they still gave the wrong answer.

[TheGym]

In the Top-16 reveal, the Committee explicitly said Iowa was among three teams they considered for the top-16. At the time I posted that, all that had happened was Iowa won a game. Marquette beat Butler, but Iowa did nothing to jeopardize their standing.

Again, at the time, Iowa had more Q1A wins and the same number of Q1+2 wins as Marquette. I like Marquette's resume a little better, but that may be personal bias, the developments since (losing at Indiana sticks out), and prioritizing total Q1 wins, but when the Committee said "Iowa was right there" it means they were at worst 19th at the time and they won their next game.

I feel like anyone having MU ahead of Iowa is basically the kid who turned in their homework, the teacher corrected it & gave them another chance to turn it in using the answer key, and they still gave the wrong answer.

Sometimes it is not what a team did that drop, but what other teams do to leapfrog a team.  MU beat Butler is much greater than Iowa avenging a horrible loss to Nebraska.  Marquette's resume is better than Iowa's and it has nothing to do with bias.  Iowa has a couple of bad losses and Marquette has none.

[Boston Warrior]

How is butler ahead of Marquette?

Both beat Purdue
Same big east record
1 point loss with Baylor?
Split victories
2 seed lines?

[brewcity77]

Sometimes it is not what a team did that drop, but what other teams do to leapfrog a team.  MU beat Butler is much greater than Iowa avenging a horrible loss to Nebraska.  Marquette's resume is better than Iowa's and it has nothing to do with bias.  Iowa has a couple of bad losses and Marquette has none.

I get all that, and let me stress I'm making the distinction between my opinion and the Selection Committee's opinion.

I had Marquette ahead of Iowa before the reveal, but after they told us Iowa was in the mix for 16 and Marquette was not (by omission), the only logical conclusion was to keep Iowa ahead.

While both teams went 1-1 since, Marquette added a better win than Iowa did (Butler vs Nebraska) and that coupled with our improving NET and computer rankings are why I (spoiler alert) am moving Marquette ahead of Iowa in my new S-Curve. But as of when I posted what MSK quoted, there was no logical way I could see putting Marquette ahead of Iowa based on what the Selection Committee had just told us.

[muguru]

Thought this would be an interesting question for anyone that wants to answer...As a fan, do you have a preference as far as time slot/day of the week you prefer MU play in the NCAA's?? For me, IF I'm going to a site, I absolutely prefer a Thursday/Sat pod. If I'm not, I almost prefer they play on Friday in the afternoon or anytime in the evening. That way I can enjoy a day of the tourney without having to worry about MU's game. I really liked the late Friday tip a few years ago against South Carolina.

One thing I absolutely do not like/want is one of the first tips Thursday(if I'm not going to the site). To me, if you lose that game, it's almost like you weren't even in the tourney then.

Do you all have any preferences??

[CountryRoads]

Thought this would be an interesting question for anyone that wants to answer...As a fan, do you have a preference as far as time slot/day of the week you prefer MU play in the NCAA's?? For me, IF I'm going to a site, I absolutely prefer a Thursday/Sat pod. If I'm not, I almost prefer they play on Friday in the afternoon or anytime in the evening. That way I can enjoy a day of the tourney without having to worry about MU's game. I really liked the late Friday tip a few years ago against South Carolina.

One thing I absolutely do not like/want is one of the first tips Thursday(if I'm not going to the site). To me, if you lose that game, it's almost like you weren't even in the tourney then.

Do you all have any preferences??

I feel pretty much the same. Hoping it's Thursday this year because I'll probably hop in the car for the Saturday game if they would win the first. Some pretty close sites to Milwaukee this year.

[brewcity77]

Thought this would be an interesting question for anyone that wants to answer...As a fan, do you have a preference as far as time slot/day of the week you prefer MU play in the NCAA's?? For me, IF I'm going to a site, I absolutely prefer a Thursday/Sat pod. If I'm not, I almost prefer they play on Friday in the afternoon or anytime in the evening. That way I can enjoy a day of the tourney without having to worry about MU's game. I really liked the late Friday tip a few years ago against South Carolina.

One thing I absolutely do not like/want is one of the first tips Thursday(if I'm not going to the site). To me, if you lose that game, it's almost like you weren't even in the tourney then.

Do you all have any preferences??

Thursday is always when I go out with my group of friends, so I would rather see Marquette then as I enjoy watching that game with a crowd. But not a huge difference to me. I expect to be off the entire time anyway.

[IrwinFletcher]

Thought this would be an interesting question for anyone that wants to answer...As a fan, do you have a preference as far as time slot/day of the week you prefer MU play in the NCAA's?? For me, IF I'm going to a site, I absolutely prefer a Thursday/Sat pod. If I'm not, I almost prefer they play on Friday in the afternoon or anytime in the evening. That way I can enjoy a day of the tourney without having to worry about MU's game. I really liked the late Friday tip a few years ago against South Carolina.

One thing I absolutely do not like/want is one of the first tips Thursday(if I'm not going to the site). To me, if you lose that game, it's almost like you weren't even in the tourney then.

Do you all have any preferences??

You are a glass half empty guy.  I love early tip off on Thursday, because when they win, you get two days to revel in the win and watch other teams have to go home early.

[The Sultan]

My preference is Thursday early evening, Saturday afternoon.

[muguru]

I feel pretty much the same. Hoping it's Thursday this year because I'll probably hop in the car for the Saturday game if they would win the first. Some pretty close sites to Milwaukee this year.

Exactly this..don't like traveling to Friday/Sunday sites. LOVE the Thursday/Saturday because depending on how you like to do things, when games are over Saturday, you can hop in the car and head home and get home Late Sat night/early Sunday and you have the whole day Sunday to then relax before going back to work Monday.

[muguru]

Thursday is always when I go out with my group of friends, so I would rather see Marquette then as I enjoy watching that game with a crowd. But not a huge difference to me. I expect to be off the entire time anyway.

I too am always off..but still like when they play on Fridays then, I think. Or if it's Thursday, in the evening.

[MU82]

In 2013, we beat Davidson on Thursday afternoon. The fact that we won - even if it was a little too exciting - made the whole rest of Thursday, all of Friday and the first part of Saturday great. Then, we won on Saturday, too, and it made the whole rest of the weekend spectacular.

Because I am an optimist by nature, I would love to play early Thursday, get the win, and just enjoy the heck out of the next couple of days.

But yes, if lightning strikes and we happen to lose early Thursday, it would suck. Like guru says, it pretty much ruins the entire tournament for me, especially that first weekend.

If we knew our Warriors were gonna lose, I'd prefer to play Friday's very last game. But we don't know that, and I expect victory, so Thursday's my preference.

[Lennys Tap]

In 2013, we beat Davidson on Thursday afternoon. The fact that we won - even if it was a little too exciting - made the whole rest of Thursday, all of Friday and the first part of Saturday great. Then, we won on Saturday, too, and it made the whole rest of the weekend spectacular.

Because I am an optimist by nature, I would love to play early Thursday, get the win, and just enjoy the heck out of the next couple of days.

But yes, if lightning strikes and we happen to lose early Thursday, it would suck. Like guru says, it pretty much ruins the entire tournament for me, especially that first weekend.

If we knew our Warriors were gonna lose, I'd prefer to play Friday's very last game. But we don't know that, and I expect victory, so Thursday's my preference.

Like you, I prefer early Thursday, early Saturday. If we lose  I don't enjoy the games that follow very much - but if I'm waiting all day Thursday and Friday for us to play I don't much enjoy the early games either. But if we win early (as I expect we will this year) The whole tournament is much more fun.

[Mr. Nielsen]

I too am always off..but still like when they play on Fridays then, I think. Or if it's Thursday, in the evening.

Ditto. I'm also off during the conference tournament week of Thur/Fri. Truth be told, I like that week better.

[drewm88]

What's this Saturday/Sunday game people are speaking of? Not familiar.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

How is butler ahead of Marquette?

Both beat Purdue
Same big east record
1 point loss with Baylor?
Split victories
2 seed lines?

Butler has a better record (19-6 vs 17-7)
Butler has a better record away from home (7-4 vs 5-6)
Butler has a higher NET (12 vs 20)
Butler has a better Q1 record (8-5 vs 6-6)


The one area we have a real advantage is SOS (5 vs 45) and the margins of victory in our head to head matchups. We could pass them but we probably need to win at least 2 more games than they do the rest of the way, possibly more.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Umm mu beat butler and iowas has absolutely gotten their doors blown off twice.  Why shouldnt MU be ahead of Iowa, what has iowa done this entire year that is impressive?  Big ten overhyped because half the broadcasters and writers are big ten grads

Brew is right about the selection show but I've gotta agree with Sand Knit here too. I think our resume is obviously better.

Record: Advantage MU (17-7 vs 17-8)
NET: Advantage MU (20 vs 30)
SOS: Advantage MU (5 vs 66)
Away from home record: Advantage MU (5-6 vs 5-7)
Q1 Record: Advantage MU (6-6 vs 5-6)
Q2 Record: Push
Q3 Record: Advantage MU (1-0 vs 1-1)
Q4 Record: Push

Where they get us is best wins. Their two best wins (Maryland at home, Texas Tech on neutral court) are both better than our best win (Butler at home). Personally, I wouldn't say that's enough to put them over us, but I could definitely be wrong.

[brewcity77]

Brew is right about the selection show but I've gotta agree with Sand Knit here too. I think our resume is obviously better.

Record: Advantage MU (17-7 vs 17-8)
NET: Advantage MU (20 vs 30)
SOS: Advantage MU (5 vs 66)
Away from home record: Advantage MU (5-6 vs 5-7)
Q1 Record: Advantage MU (6-6 vs 5-6)
Q2 Record: Push
Q3 Record: Advantage MU (1-0 vs 1-1)
Q4 Record: Push

Where they get us is best wins. Their two best wins (Maryland at home, Texas Tech on neutral court) are both better than our best win (Butler at home). Personally, I wouldn't say that's enough to put them over us, but I could definitely be wrong.

This also stresses why recent results matter. If Iowa wins at Indiana, they would have the better record and better Q1 record. That was a good result for us last night. Also noticed that Garza posted 38 in the loss. Another example of a NPOY candidate stuffing stats and losing, something Markus doesn't really do.

[Its DJOver]

Ummm.....

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=401168414

[TheGym]

Ummm.....

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=401168414

Fair point, but losing by 1 in OT is not the same as getting blown out.  Iowa was never in that game last night.

[Boston Warrior]

Tamu,

Thank you on the butler perspective.

I was hoping strength of schedule and head to head points help more than a game.

Appreciate the quick analysis.

[brewcity77]

Ummm.....

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=401168414

You cherry pick one example, which is also the ONLY example (and a 1-point loss in overtime, at that). Marquette is 9-1 when Howard scores 30+. When the other 9 NPOY candidates score 30+, their teams are a combined 7-6. Howard goes off, Marquette is virtually assured a win. Anyone else, it's pretty much a coin flip if it helps the team or not.

[Its DJOver]

You cherry pick one example, which is also the ONLY example (and a 1-point loss in overtime, at that). Marquette is 9-1 when Howard scores 30+. When the other 9 NPOY candidates score 30+, their teams are a combined 7-6. Howard goes off, Marquette is virtually assured a win. Anyone else, it's pretty much a coin flip if it helps the team or not.

Easy Brew; just pointing out that I don't think that team success should necessarily relate to NPOTY voting.  I love when Markus goes off, because like you said it usually means we win, but I also won't take points away from others because their team loses. 

Markus would have my vote, if I had one, but Garza's 38 against I4 was impressive no matter how you look at it (14-22 from the floor, 3-6 from 3, 7-8 from the line).  He shouldn't get docked because his teammates went 1-8 from 3, the same way that Markus shouldn't be docked when he put up 30+ but his teammates went 2-16 from 3 against DePaul (had we lost that game).  Markus is putting together an incredible season, but that doesn't mean that other's aren't also.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

You are a glass half empty guy.  I love early tip off on Thursday, because when they win, you get two days to revel in the win and watch other teams have to go home early.

Or it absolutely ruins the best two days of college basketball all season for you.  This year I am hoping for Thursday night because I am going to sportsbook with some friends on Friday.  Would rather watch MU game at home.  But generally speaking, give me Friday afternoon or evening all day long over a Thursday game.