Investing Thread

[MU82]

Every rich person does.

Hell, even I do!

[Uncle Rico]

Pelosi had a solid portfolio. 

Good point.

[MuggsyB]

Sweet Jesus!  WTF happened to AAPL today? 

[MuggsyB]

Every rich person does.

Uhh... not the same thing. 

[Skatastrophy]

Sweet Jesus!  WTF happened to AAPL today? 

They had to raise their prices because it's more expensive to buy the parts to make their devices. They don't own the memory supply chain, so they're up a creek with everyone else dependent on it.

Apple stuff is already priced as luxury items, so this will further put them out of reach for regular people. Especially with the growing long-term unemployment problem. Luxury goods get hit first in poor economies like this, even if they aren't raising prices.

[MuggsyB]

They had to raise their prices because it's more expensive to buy the parts to make their devices. They don't own the memory supply chain, so they're up a creek with everyone else dependent on it.

Apple stuff is already priced as luxury items, so this will further put them out of reach for regular people. Especially with the growing long-term unemployment problem. Luxury goods get hit first in poor economies like this, even if they aren't raising prices.

Hopefully this problem is ephemeral.  Ty. 

[Jockey]

Uhh... not the same thing. 

Exactly. Trump & family are totally corrupt in their investments.

[MuggsyB]

Exactly. Trump & family are totally corrupt in their investments.

But the Pelosi's are not at all. That makes sense.

[Skatastrophy]

Hopefully this problem is ephemeral.  Ty. 

Memory production has been bought out until 2028, so far. 

[MU82]

Apple users buy Apple products, and keep buying them, and then they eventually replace them with new Apple products.

I'll be quite surprised if that changes.

[Hards Alumni]

But the Pelosi's are not at all. That makes sense.

They're not quite the same, also, not what he said.

[Uncle Rico]

But the Pelosi's are not at all. That makes sense.

Good point.  Her manipulation of the stock market to the benefit of her oligarch donors is one of the great cases of corruption in American history.  Not surprised.  Short people are usually criminals.

[Skatastrophy]

Apple users buy Apple products, and keep buying them, and then they eventually replace them with new Apple products.

I'll be quite surprised if that changes.

Phone tech stopped accelerating. Now the new phone tech is them selling AI integrated with the devices. People don't want that.

People can wait to upgrade for years if the price and tech isn't worth it.

[MU82]

Phone tech stopped accelerating. Now the new phone tech is them selling AI integrated with the devices. People don't want that.

People can wait to upgrade for years of the price and tech isn't worth it.

I don't disagree. The nice thing is we'll get to see what happens!

In the meantime, I'm not selling my AAPL stock. Not buying more now, either; even after yesterday's pullback, it's still overvalued IMHO.

[Jay Bee]

I don't disagree. The nice thing is we'll get to see what happens!

In the meantime, I'm not selling my AAPL stock. Not buying more now, either; even after yesterday's pullback, it's still overvalued IMHO.

Yes. Very overvalued. $50 to $75 stock per Heisy aina.

April 29, 2016 (today), Apple stock is $93.74, below the iPhone5 release.

The problem ... in the post Jobs era, Apple has no new product release.  The watch was a bust and the iPad was introduced in 2010.  Apple desperately needs a post Steve Jobs product hit, something Tim Cook has not been able to create.

If Apple is now merely a replacement cycle** company, it has been the tech equivalent of an auto company.  Auto companies trade at a 5 or 6 PE.  That means Apple is a $50 to $75 dollar stock.


** Replacement cycle = marginally better refresh of the iPhone, the iPad, the Mac etc.  The purpose is to offer a new model to buy when you current model breaks.  Think an auto company introducing new models every year.  No one runs to the dealer to buy them (save some specialty models) but they are really to entice you to buy once you're done with your current car and ready for a new one.

Why is the stock getting crushed now?  This week they released their Q1 2016 earnings and for the first time since the iPhone was introduced in 2007, year-over-year sales was lower.  80% of Apple's revenue is the iPhone. 

The fear is moving forward Apple is population growth plus replacement of busted phones (roughly every two years).  That is not a growth stock!

[SoCalEagle]

AAPL will most likely settle into a trading range between $270 and $300 per share so it can digest its recent earnings and re-price for its ongoing share buybacks.  Only then is it likely to jump past its recent high of $315.  It's done this multiple times over the years going back to the pre-covid days.  If I didn't own any AAPL I would be a buyer if it goes below $270, maybe $260. 

Or, it's possible that maybe it has peaked, and as a previous poster once predicted, it will decline from here because Steve Jobs is gone, there's no innovation, the watch is a bust, it's simply in a replacement cycle, and the earnings growth is over. According to my calculations (I'm no math major), AAPL increased 14.6 X since that prediction of decline was made.  That's a lot of growth to miss out on!!! 

Good luck to all in whatever investments you choose.

[jesmu84]

Stock buybacks should be illegal again

[MU82]

Yes. Very overvalued. $50 to $75 stock per Heisy aina.

Yup. Ten years later, Smuggles' AAPL prediction is funnier than ever. And don't forget ... AAPL had a 4-for-1 split four years after he made that prescient call, so the split-adjusted price he was saying AAPL was worth in 2016 actually was $12.50 to $18.75.

That "not a growth stock" is only up 2,170% from his $12.50 valuation mark. We all shoulda sold!

[SoCalEagle]

Stock buybacks should be illegal again

Please explain.

[Jay Bee]

Please explain.

she can't

[Uncle Rico]

she can't

That's a sick burn!