Investing Thread

[Jay Bee]

That's the physical description of JB on the posters saying not to let him into the pickleball venue. Weird coincidence

None of that was a physical description, Depends boy.

[rocky_warrior]

SPY now down 2% year to date and only up 1% the last 6 months. Winning!

I mean, if history is your guide, that means buy!

[MU82]

I mean, if history is your guide, that means buy!

Definitely recent history. Regardless of valuations, "buy the dip" has always worked the last many years.

FWIW, I did buy some Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) today.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I mean, if history is your guide, that means buy!

I'd feel better about committing new money if there was a single positive economic indicator.

Consumer confidence: down
Jobs: net negative 3 of the last 4 months
Inflation: Persistent and edging up, even before the Iran fiasco
Consumer spending: holding up due only to the top 10% of income earners

I have been recently nibbling at a few BDCs and in the private credit market due to the turmoil there, but net I am still a seller while shifting to international markets and gold.

[Skatastrophy]

I'm still buying because there are enough doomers that it's unlikely there will big dips outside of black swan events. It's not like we're in a period of irrational exuberance that would cause a bubble. 

[Shaka Shart]

I don't envy people 60 and older trying to figure out their 401k strategy right now.

Sure theoretically the market goes up but given the current bonkers inputs does it go up in time?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I don't envy people 60 and older trying to figure out their 401k strategy right now.

Sure theoretically the market goes up but given the current bonkers inputs does it go up in time?

Sequence of return risk is very high for that cohort right now.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I'm still buying because there are enough doomers that it's unlikely there will big dips outside of black swan events. It's not like we're in a period of irrational exuberance that would cause a bubble.

The Shiller PE is still right about at its highest level since the dot com days

[MU82]

I don't envy people 60 and older trying to figure out their 401k strategy right now.

Sure theoretically the market goes up but given the current bonkers inputs does it go up in time?

Though I've got more cash than usual, I'm still quite invested. But most of the stocks I own are boring, low-beta dividend growers.

[Skatastrophy]

The Shiller PE is still right about at its highest level since the dot com days

Timing the market is for subject matter experts and idiots. I feel like I am neither. I buy and hold no matter the weather.

Look at all the people that moved to cash during covid, or during the election, or whatever. When's the right time to buy back in? Idk, so I'm always buying.

I am holding 5% cash but I think we're going to do some big home projects in the next 6 months.

[MU82]

Timing the market is for subject matter experts and idiots. I feel like I am neither. I buy and hold no matter the weather.

Look at all the people that moved to cash during covid, or during the election, or whatever. When's the right time to buy back in. Idk, so I'm always buying.

I am holding 5% cash but I think we're going to do some big home projects in the next 6 months.

I also buy and hold. I hate selling.

[Jay Bee]

Though I've got more cash than usual, I'm still quite invested. But most of the stocks I own are boring, low-beta dividend growers.

^^^ beta guy

(investment wise, I'm kinda that too rn tbh)

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Timing the market is for subject matter experts and idiots. I feel like I am neither. I buy and hold no matter the weather.

Look at all the people that moved to cash during covid, or during the election, or whatever. When's the right time to buy back in? Idk, so I'm always buying.

I am holding 5% cash but I think we're going to do some big home projects in the next 6 months.

As I said before, B&H was my philosophy before the current kleptocracy, I seldom held more than 3% cash. I see the current situation as something completely different than a traditional business cycle. Also, my objectives have continued to evolve, from 100% cap appreciation to wanting to build a solid income stream while still having growth exposure. But to each their own.

As far as when to buy back in, I shared during COVID that my strategy was:

Market down 10%, deploy 10% of cash on hand
"       "  20%, " next 20%
"       "  30%, " next 30%
"       "  40%, " last 40%

Worked well then, may or may not work the same this time around.

[MU82]

Yahoo Finance editor Brian Sozzi talks about how even popular tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT and NVDA could be adversely affected by the war:

Good luck to Apple and CEO Tim Cook in selling a new $1,000-plus foldable iPhone this year if gas prices settle in above $4 per gallon and people are worried about job loss in an economic slowdown. They will stick it out with a two-year-old iPhone.

Good luck to Microsoft's important gaming division, underpinned by Activision Blizzard. Let's see how digital download sales look when 18-year-old gamers need $20 extra just to fill up their 120,000-mile Kia. Or how holiday gaming sales look when the other $20 they have in their pocket has to go toward a higher grocery bill.

And good luck to Nvidia in delivering on sky-high Wall Street gross-margin estimates as supply chain costs go up because of higher oil prices. Even the power radiating from CEO Jensen Huang's iconic black leather jacket won't help Nvidia keep its costs as low as analysts previously thought.