Investing Thread

[Jockey]

The Atlanta Fed's GDPnow-cast just updated, with a prediction that the initial real GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2025, which will be released tomorrow at 8:30am, will be -1.5%, with the adjustment for gold imports.

Still hummin' away.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The greatest economy the world has ever seen is on the horizon.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

The greatest economy the world has ever seen is on the horizon.

I'm sure he still thinks that. I'm sure they all still think that.

Facts don't stand a chance against their feelings.

[GB Warrior]

Are we winning yet

[Uncle Rico]

Are we winning yet

Without tariffs, GDP would be +3.  🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷

[Uncle Rico]

The tariff consumer tax will really begin to ramp up in the next few days.  The cost to the American household will not be insignificant. 

Buckle up

[MU82]

The tariff consumer tax will really begin to ramp up in the next few days.  The cost to the American household will not be insignificant. 

Buckle up

The same guy who was taking credit for the stock market's performance in November, December and January is now saying the market performance the last 100 days is his predecessor's fault. You can't make this stuff up.

[Hards Alumni]

The tariff consumer tax will really begin to ramp up in the next few days.  The cost to the American household will not be insignificant. 

Buckle up

Wait until people realize products just won't be arriving on container ships from China

[dgies9156]

The Orange Man is beginning to see what economists have warned for a long time -- this ain't working!

The notion that somehow we can recapture the millions of manufacturing jobs lost between 1960 and 2000 by on-shoring is crazy talk. Manufacturing is a classic capital/labor trade-off. If tariffs make foreign labor too expensive, new plants in the United States will be capital intensive, with heavy use of robotics, digital manufacturing and AI.

An idea that some company will open a tractor plant in Rock Island, IL and suddenly employ 6,000 UAW represented laborers is lunacy. The Foxconn experiment in Wisconsin, which would have produced computer glass at 5x the cost of China, is People's Exhibit 1 as to the challenge the on-shoring efforts face.

In fact, there was a study a number of years ago which showed far more manufacturing jobs lost to automation than to off-shoring.

A final thought: President Reagan's team got it right. When Japan was importing a large share of the domestic auto market, the Reagan team quietly went to Japan and told them they needed to locate in the United States. Or tariffs would result. The result has been a huge success for Japan, Inc., and the United States.

[rocky_warrior]

Wait until people realize products just won't be arriving on container ships from China

I don't think most people realize that at all (despite complaining about made in China).  I do think we'll see a lot less consumption with higher prices.  But that's not good for the stock market.

[Scoop Snoop]

A final thought: President Reagan's team got it right. When Japan was importing a large share of the domestic auto market, the Reagan team quietly went to Japan and told them they needed to locate in the United States. Or tariffs would result. The result has been a huge success for Japan, Inc., and the United States.

"Quietly" is the operative word. This is the path to successful negotiator/presidential accomplishments regardless of party affiliation. Confronting other countries without first seeking out behind-the-scenes avenues is pure stupidity.

 

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

"Quietly" is the operative word. This is the path to successful negotiator/presidential accomplishments regardless of party affiliation. Confronting other countries without first seeking out behind-the-scenes avenues is pure stupidity.

 

It's called diplomacy.  It's not easy but it's possible.

[Hards Alumni]

I don't think most people realize that at all (despite complaining about made in China).  I do think we'll see a lot less consumption with higher prices.  But that's not good for the stock market.

I don't consume very much so I'm excited to see the empty shelves at the stores and people finally realizing where they get all of their "shinys and treats" or the reason they're so cheap.

A lot of people really have no clue.

[Uncle Rico]

I don't consume very much so I'm excited to see the empty shelves at the stores and people finally realizing where they get all of their "shinys and treats" or the reason they're so cheap.

A lot of people really have no clue.

Stupidity is a proud American tradition

[jesmu84]

I don't consume very much so I'm excited to see the empty shelves at the stores and people finally realizing where they get all of their "shinys and treats" or the reason they're so cheap.

A lot of people really have no clue.

We're gonna have a lot of pissed off folks when the jalapeno poppers are gone or quadruple in price.

[NCMUFan]

We're gonna have a lot of pissed off folks when the jalapeno poppers are gone or quadruple in price.

Jalapeno poppers are made in China?  Learned something new.

[Uncle Rico]

Jalapeno poppers are made in China?  Learned something new.

When product becomes scarce and consumers turn to available products, those products become scarce and cause a rise in price. 

Hope that explains what happens when tariffs cause the rise in price of jalapeño poppers or other products that don't originate in China.

I'd also note, China ain't the only country being levied new and larger tariffs.  Prices are rising on goods from Europe as well.  That's the price we pay to have millions of Americans take factory jobs

[NCMUFan]

I believe China ushered in the throw it away society.
Inexpensive, poorly made products.  When it breaks down, throw it away and get another one.
Do we now start to mend worn torn clothes, resole our shoes, fix our TVs?
Back in the 1920s,30s, 40s when majority of products were made in America, did people have as many pairs of shoes, cars, clothes, conveniences?
Will be interesting when items become more expensive.

[The Sultan]

Jalapeno poppers are made in China?  Learned something new.

Someone doesn't understand basic economics.

[Skatastrophy]

I believe China ushered in the throw it away society.
Inexpensive, poorly made products.  When it breaks down, throw it away and get another one.
Do we now start to mend worn torn clothes, resole our shoes, fix our TVs?
Back in the 1920s,30s, 40s when majority of products were made in America, did people have as many pairs of shoes, cars, clothes, conveniences?
Will be interesting when items become more expensive.

Imagine watching your economy implode and this being your take

[The Sultan]

Imagine watching your economy implode and this being your take

Right? The lengths that people will go through to justify absolutely batshit crazy economic policy is something.

[NCMUFan]

Hey, nothing I can do about it.
But seeing poor Scoopers totally lose their sh!t is pretty entertaining.

[Jockey]

Someone doesn't understand basic economics.

I think the problem may be that he doesn't understand human decency. Or is even aware that it exists in most of us.

[Pakuni]

Didn't take long for the "prices are too high" crowd to become the "prices are too low" crowd.

[NCMUFan]

I think the problem may be that he doesn't understand human decency. Or is even aware that it exists in most of us.

Wow, a thread that exists so people can brag about what stocks they made killings on to one on "human decency".  You look very very cute on your soap box.