Investing Thread

[Shaka Shart]

The idea of the American Dream is a "pull yourself up by your own bootstraps" type of thinking. That it doesn't matter what your social standing is at birth - you are the one largely responsible for making yourself successful.  Now I think the United States still provides those opportunities, but has been bypassed by a number of others on the social mobility scale.

The "high floor" as Wags puts it, socializes education and health care in a way that takes out two of the largest factors that IMO are detriments to social mobility here.

It's easier to achieve upwards mobility here than many places in the world but it certainly isn't everyone starting at home plate. Its also very unforgiving to misfortune

[Hards Alumni]

It's easier to achieve upwards mobility here than many places in the world but it certainly isn't everyone starting at home plate. Its also very unforgiving to misfortune

Well, and it used to be much easier to have upward mobility a few decades back in the US than it is now.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

We're in that curious space where the markets don't love a sterling economy.

Jobs: +216,000 (46K over estimates)
Unemployment: flat at 3.7% (+.2% better than estimates)
Wage growth: +4.1%

Markets: "meh"

[MU82]

We're in that curious space where the markets don't love a sterling economy.

Jobs: +216,000 (46K over estimates)
Unemployment: flat at 3.7% (+.2% better than estimates)
Markets: "meh"

Well, the market is near an all-time high, and SPY did just gain 24% last year. So a little better than "meh."

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Well, the market is near an all-time high, and SPY did just gain 24% last year. So a little better than "meh."

Meh in reaction to these numbers, as it lessens the chance and speed of the predicted 6 interest rate cuts this year, which seemed overly optimistic to me anyway.

[MU82]

Meh in reaction to these numbers, as it lessens the chance and speed of the predicted 6 interest rate cuts this year, which seemed overly optimistic to me anyway.

Most predictions I've seen have been 3 rate cuts in 2024. It'll be interesting to see what actually happens.

[JWags85]

Most predictions I've seen have been 3 rate cuts in 2024. It'll be interesting to see what actually happens.

If you go back through my posts, I've been a frequent and vocal critic of Powell going back 5 years, but I will say that he's actually impressed me over the last 18 months or so and I think he and the Fed actually have a very good handle on things/perspective.  Wild to think given how I viewed them during the money printer go BRRRRR days 

[Hards Alumni]

We're in that curious space where the markets don't love a sterling economy.

Jobs: +216,000 (46K over estimates)
Unemployment: flat at 3.7% (+.2% better than estimates)
Wage growth: +4.1%

Markets: "meh"

Priced in, everytime

[4everwarriors]

Most predictions I've seen have been 3 rate cuts in 2024. It'll be interesting to see what actually happens.

Well, it is an election year. Any port in a storm, aina?

[MU82]

Well, it is an election year. Any port in a storm, aina?

Last I heard, the current president didn't do what your lord did: constantly badger and berate Powell, threaten to fire him, call him an "enemy" of the American people, etc. All to get a couple of rate cuts that weren't necessary during an economy your lord claimed was the best ever.

The current president has let Powell do his job. And as Wags said, Powell has been doing it pretty darn well.

[SoCalEagle]

Last I heard, the current president didn't do what your lord did: constantly badger and berate Powell, threaten to fire him, call him an "enemy" of the American people, etc. All to get a couple of rate cuts that weren't necessary during an economy your lord claimed was the best ever.

The current president has let Powell do his job. And as Wags said, Powell has been doing it pretty darn well.

I agree with this analysis. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Well, it is an election year. Any port in a storm, aina?

Yes, 4Qver, it is undoubtedly a conspiracy. Just as zerohedge said. The guy Trump appointed is in the bag for Dark Brandon. Which is why he raised interest rates 11 times. What a clever boy you are.

[Shaka Shart]

The price of teeth must be underperforming the S&P

[Goose]

It is real simple, smart money is in ahead of good news and idiots are in after good news.

[Skatastrophy]

It is real simple, smart money is in ahead of good news and idiots are in after good news.

Smart money buys and holds. Dumb money buys and sells thinking they can outsmart mr. market.

[Lennys Tap]

It is real simple, smart money is in ahead of good news and idiots are in after good news.

In trading, you buy the rumor and sell the news.

In investing, you use weakness to add to your portfolio - it's what the cash you're holding is for.

[Goose]

Lenny

I wish you posted on this thread more often. You bring a ton of insight on the topic. That said, I at least hope you read this thread often and gain knowledge from a number of investing experts on here.

[MU82]

Goose, few if any here are claiming to be "investing experts." I sure as heck am not claiming that. Are you? Had I made a comment like you just did, you'd have accused me of trying to "stir the pot." But that's OK; you sometimes like to stir, too.

It's a forum to discuss investing ideas. I also hope Lenny stops by often -- and I totally agree with his last post.

[HowardsWorld]

Honest question here. If you had $500k to either invest in the s&p 500 or buy an airbnb lake house grossing 30 to 40k a year non guaranteed a year, what would you choose?

[reinko]

Honest question here. If you had $500k to either invest in the s&p 500 or buy an airbnb lake house grossing 30 to 40k a year non guaranteed a year, what would you choose?

Ton of factors here, is that 30-40K gross or net?  Paying all cash, mortgage?  Condition of the lake house, would the 500K wipe you out, or still have a nest egg just for lake house repairs.   Lastly what are your savings goals, S&P 500 is great long term, is real estate something you want to get into...

[Lennys Tap]

Honest question here. If you had $500k to either invest in the s&p 500 or buy an airbnb lake house grossing 30 to 40k a year non guaranteed a year, what would you choose?

On first blush, a 6-8% non guaranteed gross return on a speculative (lake house) piece of real estate seems a little light.

[Goose]

82

Not stirring the pot one bit. I sincerely respect any thoughts that are shared by Lenny on the topic. For the record, I have a better chance on being the next HC after Shaka leaves than being considered an investing expert.

To clarify, my post was in reference was in regards to the market being in a curious space with all of the great economic numbers. I was simply saying smart guys are in before the news and out after the news. Those smart guys are the big boys and they drive the market, imo.

[tower912]

I am rhe opposite of an expert. My retirement investment plan was to stay at a job with a really good pension.   Pay off a house early.  Stay in it.   Stay married to my first wife.   Put money into my 457 and her 401k plans.  Live within my means.   And then to trust the process and the market.   
  I have friends who chase every market trend.   I have friends who are financial planners.   The former frustrate the latter.   I understand the impulses.   It just isn't me.

In answer to Howardsworld's really fun question, my wife and I are leaving our half million plus in the aforementioned 457 and 401k.   No interest in being a landlord.

[Lennys Tap]

I am rhe opposite of an expert. My retirement investment plan was to stay at a job with a really good pension.   Pay off a house early.  Stay in it.   Stay married to my first wife.   Put money into my 457 and her 401k plans.  Live within my means.   And then to trust the process and the market.   
  I have friends who chase every market trend.   I have friends who are financial planners.   The former frustrate the latter.   I understand the impulses.   It just isn't me.

In answer to Howardsworld's really fun question, my wife and I are leaving our half million plus in the aforementioned 457 and 401k.   No interest in being a landlord.

Please don't share this with your bride - she might not appreciate that you stayed married to her as part of your retirement investment plan.

[tower912]

Why?  That is an ongoing joke between us.  She married me and stayed married because of my health care benefits. I stay married to her because there are divorce attorneys at the law firm at which she works willing to work for her for free.

I get that based on your recent post history you may have to Google 'joke' and 'humor'.

Although the chain gang bit wasn't bad.