Investing Thread

[tower912]

If Trump is the nominee, any vote for him is for the end of the American experiment, for strongman fascism.

Give me Harris.

#project2025
# redCaesar
#trumpparaphrasingmeinkampfinhisspeeches.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

That is explicitly what they want

[4everwarriors]

If the Dems retain the WH with the BOTUS and BOTUS#2, it will be 16 yrs of the BO presidency and countin', hey?

[tower912]

Phew. 

[MU82]

I'm always up for political fun, but it's the Investing Thread.

Move it to the Israel thread, at least.

[dgies9156]

Gang, what does this have to do with investing.

It's one thing to talk about how inflation affects voter sentiment. It's another to start in on the President or the oppposition candidate politically.

Let's go back to investments.

Thank you Brother MU

[rocket surgeon]

If Trump is the nominee, any vote for him is for the end of the American experiment, for strongman fascism.

Give me Harris.

#project2025
# redCaesar
#trumpparaphrasingmeinkampfinhisspeeches.

simple question-what is "the american experiment"?

[tower912]

Democracy

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Brother Pakuni:

Candidly, that analysis makes no sense.

The mood of the country tends to support the notion that we may be spending more, but we don't have purchasing power parity. At least not yet. How else would you explain the general irritation about the economy?

This is interesting relative to the above:

"Anyway, the analysts at Briefing Book delved into one possible reason for this disconnect, which I speculated about right from the start — but they've done the math. It's now a well-established fact that partisan orientation affects expressed views about the economy: Democrats are more positive when a Democrat holds the White House, Republicans more positive when the president is a Republican. What Briefing Book shows is that this effect isn't symmetric: It applies to both parties, but the partisan effect on sentiment is two and a half times as large for Republicans as it is for Democrats.

And it estimates that this "asymmetric amplification," all by itself, accounts for 30 percent of the gap between economic sentiment and economic fundamentals.

Wait, there's more. The importance of partisanship in shaping economic perceptions tells us that a lot of what people say about the economy reflects what they hear, either from news organizations or on social media, rather than their own experiences."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/opinion/partisanship-economy-polling.html?unlocked_article_code=1._Ew.Ee3I.24uQZa_Wyjrb&smid=url-share

[Skatastrophy]

Maybe one of you should start another economy thread

[rocket surgeon]

Democracy

  ohhhhh, so taking him off the ballot is....i see you're taking your marching orders from all the usual...when ya don't like your opposition, you prosecute them and remove the threat to YOU'RE democracy.  when you can't define democracy to begin with, this is what you get-mush for brains

[tower912]

Thanks.   I needed a laugh this morning.

[Uncle Rico]

  ohhhhh, so taking him off the ballot is....i see you're taking your marching orders from all the usual...when ya don't like your opposition, you prosecute them and remove the threat to YOU'RE democracy.  when you can't define democracy to begin with, this is what you get-mush for brains

9 out of 10

[MU82]

I had a snarky answer to roQQet all ready, but killed it.

This is the Investing Thread.

It was a third straight great week for the market, with some of the beaten-down value names joining the tech stocks in a broad rally.

[MU82]

Interesting graphic:

[Coleman]

  ohhhhh, so taking him off the ballot is....i see you're taking your marching orders from all the usual...when ya don't like your opposition, you prosecute them and remove the threat to YOU'RE democracy.  when you can't define democracy to begin with, this is what you get-mush for brains

Stop YOU'RE making me laugh

[MU82]

In the 2+ months since Unk wrote this ...

Millions and millions of Americans will pay it.  NFL is gonna be rolling in the cash for generations.  League is unstoppable despite all the fans they've lost because of kneeling.  Owners are laughing their way to the bank.  You'll be dead and buried and the league will be making sick profits beyond your wildest imagination

... and Douchey followed with this ...

Are you long Disney?  You should your entire net worth only in this stock if you truly believe this.

... DIS is up 16.5%. That compares to 2.3% for SPY and 5.0% for QQQ.

Scoop's best counter-indicator gave us all as good a tip as we're gonna get, and I didn't buy. Doggone it!

[MU82]

From the NYT:

The founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance agreed to plead guilty to money laundering violations and step down from the company.

Changpeng Zhao will pay a $50 million fine and step down as chief executive, a stunning blow to the most powerful and influential figure in the global crypto industry.

[Skatastrophy]

Weird that unregulated finance companies are the wild wild West

[MUBurrow]

Weird that unregulated finance companies are the wild wild West

That's a feature not a bug because its decentralized currency!!!!

[JWags85]

From the NYT:

The founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance agreed to plead guilty to money laundering violations and step down from the company.

Changpeng Zhao will pay a $50 million fine and step down as chief executive, a stunning blow to the most powerful and influential figure in the global crypto industry.

There has been SHADY bidness around Binance for awhile.  The close childhood friend (CCF) of my best man is (was?!) an exec there. CCF was there primarily because his older brother was either the top or second highest ranking US exec at Binance, lived in HK for a few years working for CZ, etc...

CCF did really well at Uber and a brief time at another Silicon Valley start up before he ended up at Binance and he was the consummate tech bro braggart.  About everything, often unprompted in group chats.  Then about 18-24 months ago he got really quiet.  No more bragging, would randomly not answer questions people had about crypto that he used to fall over himself posturing and preaching about.  My buddy told me last year "yea I don't even know where CCF is these days" and when he had reached out for an updated address for their Holiday card last year, CCF took a week to respond and gave him a PO Box in Nevada...which is somewhere he's never lived.

I'm gonna go google his brother now, cause I'd be STUNNED if he's not also in legal trouble

[MU82]

There has been SHADY bidness around Binance for awhile.  The close childhood friend (CCF) of my best man is (was?!) an exec there. CCF was there primarily because his older brother was either the top or second highest ranking US exec at Binance, lived in HK for a few years working for CZ, etc...

CCF did really well at Uber and a brief time at another Silicon Valley start up before he ended up at Binance and he was the consummate tech bro braggart.  About everything, often unprompted in group chats.  Then about 18-24 months ago he got really quiet.  No more bragging, would randomly not answer questions people had about crypto that he used to fall over himself posturing and preaching about.  My buddy told me last year "yea I don't even know where CCF is these days" and when he had reached out for an updated address for their Holiday card last year, CCF took a week to respond and gave him a PO Box in Nevada...which is somewhere he's never lived.

I'm gonna go google his brother now, cause I'd be STUNNED if he's not also in legal trouble

Interesting 6 degrees of separation, Wags.

[Herman Cain]

Charlie Munger dead  at Age 99. I had invested in Wesco and Daily Journal and enjoyed his unvarnished commentary at shareholder meetings over the years


https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/charlie-munger-berkshire-hathaway-dead-74d476a8?st=pfcg14k7ucmqtbz&reflink=article_copyURL_share

[MU82]

Market expected to head higher at open after the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, advanced 3.5% Y/Y in October, matching the consensus and cooling from 3.7% in September.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4041770-feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-rises-35-yy-in-october-easing-slightly

This marks the lowest print this year in a sign that inflation is falling but remains above the central bank's 2% target. Bearing in mind the lagged effects of monetary policy, could incentivize the Fed to hold rates steady in December and start cutting next year.

The report follows yesterday's release of U.S. Q3 GDP growth being revised +5.2%, on an annualized basis, from the prior estimate of 4.9% and stronger than the 2.1% rise in Q2, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said.

The increase reflects an upturn in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and nonresidential fixed investment.

Also, real disposable personal income, which adjusts for inflation, inched up 0.1% during the quarter, an upward revision of 1.1 percentage points.

The personal savings rate, or personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, rose to 4.0% from 3.8% in the previous estimate, the BEA said.

[tower912]

So.......panic?