Investing Thread

[Hards Alumni]

Remember, you don't lose until you sell. 

Not retiring anytime soon, so I'm not pulling out.  If anything, we've been holding back for a recession... Just didn't think we'd have this sort of cliff to fall from!

[jesmu84]

https://twitter.com/KyleKulinski/status/1238275046621229062?s=19

[mu03eng]

I see green arrows

[Coleman]

Guys, if you are under 50, time to max out those 401ks. I have never hit the limit before but I am planning on doing so for 2020 now.

[rocky_warrior]

Well, that close was, um, optimistic!  Get ready for another zag, or is it a zig? On Monday.

[mu_hilltopper]

Well, that close was, um, optimistic!  Get ready for another zag, or is it a zig? On Monday.

Yeah, please someone explain what happened in the last 20 minutes.  I'm guessing that was the fastest +1000 points in the history of the market.

[vogue65]

You call this investing?

[JWags85]

Yeah, please someone explain what happened in the last 20 minutes.  I'm guessing that was the fastest +1000 points in the history of the market.

A market that was aggressively oversold on hysteria and panic responded to the first semblance of a plan from the administration including testing implementation and other initiatives.

I told my buddy earlier today as he was clamoring how bad things still were, how he expected much more blood.  From last Wed to this morning, the market was down 20%.  That was on top of nearly 10% from highs in the week and change preceeding.  No matter the severity, that is a historic and unprecedented drop that dwarfed the swiftness of 2008 for example.  Even if there is still more bad news in terms of reduced guidance and missed earnings, let that come out and the market drift lower instead of these calamitous drops.

His speech was borderline terrible in parts and there was bluster, but it was still the first time it seemed like there was a handle on this in some fashion.  I personally expect to see a further drawn out bounce, and then we see if we work lower in a more orderly fashion.

[Coleman]

It is up because some semblance of a plan to respond was announced today.

All credit goes to Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has been one of the big heroes thus far.

[Golden Avalanche]

Investors LOVE when publicly listed companies are doing the heavy lifting. Administration made clear today they'll lean heavily on the private sector to mitigate their early flailing response. 

[Hards Alumni]

A market that was aggressively oversold on hysteria and panic responded to the first semblance of a plan from the administration including testing implementation and other initiatives.

I told my buddy earlier today as he was clamoring how bad things still were, how he expected much more blood.  From last Wed to this morning, the market was down 20%.  That was on top of nearly 10% from highs in the week and change preceeding.  No matter the severity, that is a historic and unprecedented drop that dwarfed the swiftness of 2008 for example.  Even if there is still more bad news in terms of reduced guidance and missed earnings, let that come out and the market drift lower instead of these calamitous drops.

His speech was borderline terrible in parts and there was bluster, but it was still the first time it seemed like there was a handle on this in some fashion.  I personally expect to see a further drawn out bounce, and then we see if we work lower in a more orderly fashion.

Monday will respond to two days of news.

[JWags85]

Monday will respond to two days of news.

Ok Dr Doom. I was trying answer a question someone had. And the market has been reacting to worst case scenarios without governmental plan or strategy all week.

But sure, given your worst case vision on everything surrounding this, we probably will blow out another 2-3 limit down days and crash through 2000 on the SPX.

[Hards Alumni]

Ok Dr Doom. I was trying answer a question someone had. And the market has been reacting to worst case scenarios without governmental plan or strategy all week.

But sure, given your worst case vision on everything surrounding this, we probably will blow out another 2-3 limit down days and crash through 2000 on the SPX.

No need to get bent out of shape, I made no judgement, nor prognostication about the next two days.  But they will determine the market Monday.  If the US pulls what Spain just did, and added 40% to their covid numbers, the market will tremble again.

I didn't say it was deserved, just a fact of life.  People are reactionary, and the market is proof.

[pbiflyer]

No need to get bent out of shape, I made no judgement, nor prognostication about the next two days.  But they will determine the market Monday.  If the US pulls what Spain just did, and added 40% to their covid numbers, the market will tremble again.

I didn't say it was deserved, just a fact of life.  People are reactionary, and the market is proof.

Since the CDC only managed 77 tests, just 19 more than the Utah Jazz last week, I doubt the reported numbers jump significantly.

[Hards Alumni]

Since the CDC only managed 77 tests, just 19 more than the Utah Jazz last week, I doubt the reported numbers jump significantly.

I take your point, but I'm sure some more results will come in over the weekend.

[rocky_warrior]

Since the CDC only managed 77 tests, just 19 more than the Utah Jazz last week, I doubt the reported numbers jump significantly.

You must have missed this page, in which the CDC is admitting public health labs are testing about 2000/day, and the 
CDC is doing like 25/day.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Local news today.

Yale New Haven replicates COVID-19 test; hopes to use it on 200 samples a day
By Mary E. O'Leary Updated 9:15 pm EDT, Friday, March 13, 2020

www.nhregister.com/news/coronavirus/amp/YNNH-replicates-the-COVID-19-test-will-be-able-15129666.php

[Benny B]

You must have missed this page, in which the CDC is admitting public health labs are testing about 2000/day, and the 
CDC is doing like 25/day.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html

Is this an argument for privatization?

[GooooMarquette]

Local news today.

Yale New Haven replicates COVID-19 test; hopes to use it on 200 samples a day
By Mary E. O'Leary Updated 9:15 pm EDT, Friday, March 13, 2020

www.nhregister.com/news/coronavirus/amp/YNNH-replicates-the-COVID-19-test-will-be-able-15129666.php

Same here at Mayo. They're hoping to run 200-300/day to start.

https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-develops-test-to-detect-covid-19/

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Is this an argument for privatization?

Competent government

[jesmu84]

Competent government

Thank you.

Maybe don't fire a unnatural carnal knowledge ton of people and at the same time drastically cut budget.

[rocky_warrior]

Is this an argument for privatization?

Nope.  In this case, I wish it was municipalization...but this is the system we've got.

[Chili]

I would expect a big drop coming early Monday. S&P futures were trading down at the end of the day Friday. They lost about 1/3 of the rally during the presser.


https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1238902522313572352

Jim is a good follow also an MU BUAD Alum.

He also mentioned we are running out of cash.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/james-bianco-117619152_fed-may-announce-commercial-paper-facilities-activity-6644969682522771457-rcute one/

[GooooMarquette]

Fed just cut interest rate by a full point....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/business/economy/federal-reserve-coronavirus.html

Probably a boost in the short-term, but the long-term outcome is still FAR more dependent on whether we can flatten the covid-19 curve.

[Chili]

Goldman just cut US GDP forecast to -5% EOY. Was at 0% going into Q1. We're about to enter a world of suck.

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1239301815847567360