Investing Thread

[Hards Alumni]

My thought isn’t so much “DEMS BAD FOR BUSINESS”, more that the market is very overheated and has been for awhile.  Trump and Co pulling every lever to get the market as high as possible, cause they were hanging there hat on it.  IMO, it won’t take all that much to deflate that.  So it doesn’t even have to be wildly broad reaching legislative change as much as slowing some of the last few years of administrative direction and eyes towards some further change.

This, and since the levers have all been pulled, there are no more to be pulled.

[MUeng]

OK Scoopvestors, so what are your top picks for 2021?

Too soon to jump back in with the likes of CCL and travel/tourism?  Cruise industry will bounce back strong imo, maybe late 2021 when we're fully vaccinated and procedures are in place.  could be a good price now.  Haven't analyzed their financials though...

[Skatastrophy]

This, and since the levers have all been pulled, there are no more to be pulled.

The 'next' lever is the Fed no longer increasing interest rates to curtail inflation. Their last guidance on monetary policy to achieve an average inflation target instead of aiming for capped inflation will keep equities high for quite a while.

[jesmu84]

Can anyone ELI5 modern monetary theory?

[JWags85]

Can anyone ELI5 modern monetary theory?

Basically governments fully control their own currency and can print it freely, spending doesn’t need to be constrained by balancing revenues with expenditures, cause they have a monopoly on the currency. Aka “how are we going to pay for it” no longer matters. Inflation isn’t a concern or is viewed as “we’ll deal with it when it happens”

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Basically governments fully control their own currency and can print it freely, spending doesn’t need to be constrained by balancing revenues with expenditures, cause they have a monopoly on the currency. Aka “how are we going to pay for it” no longer matters. Inflation isn’t a concern or is viewed as “we’ll deal with it when it happens”

I'll add this:

There are two types of inflation.  A) Inflation of the money supply, and B) price inflation.

Most people think the two are synonymous, but they are two separate things.  An increase in the money supply does not necessarily lead to an increase in the cost of goods and services.

Likewise, a decrease in the money supply mean does not necessarily mean prices will decrease.

[MUeng]

Basically governments fully control their own currency and can print it freely, spending doesn’t need to be constrained by balancing revenues with expenditures, cause they have a monopoly on the currency. Aka “how are we going to pay for it” no longer matters. Inflation isn’t a concern or is viewed as “we’ll deal with it when it happens”

And when inflation does happen, proponents of MMT will say we can just raise taxes to deal with it. 

[GooooMarquette]

Anyone have a bunch of SIGL before Musk confused the market and inadvertently sent it into the stratosphere?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/signal-advance-jumps-another-438percent-after-elon-musk-fueled-buying-frenzy.html

[rocky_warrior]

Anyone have a bunch of SIGL before Musk confused the market and inadvertently sent it into the stratosphere?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/signal-advance-jumps-another-438percent-after-elon-musk-fueled-buying-frenzy.html

I'm no Musk fan, but the market acted irrationally and people did NO due diligence.   His comments were not the source of confusion, stupid investors were the cause of confusion.

But sadly no, I didn't own any SIGL, and probably wouldn't have ever based on my limited research of them

[JWags85]

I'm no Musk fan, but the market acted irrationally and people did NO due diligence.   His comments were not the source of confusion, stupid investors were the cause of confusion.

But sadly no, I didn't own any SIGL, and probably wouldn't have ever based on my limited research of them

This x100. Just like when people sent ZOOM into orbit with uniformed buying when they meant to buy ZM.

[GooooMarquette]

I'm no Musk fan, but the market acted irrationally and people did NO due diligence.   His comments were not the source of confusion, stupid investors were the cause of confusion.

But sadly no, I didn't own any SIGL, and probably wouldn't have ever based on my limited research of them

I agree with you completely. The market often acts irrationally. It frustrates me when some people claim there is always a “rational“ explanation for every market move.

Sometimes people - including people with money - just do dumb stuff.

[MU82]

I got rich because I thought I was investing in myself.

It was only after I made $90 million on the stock that I found out it was Nike, with an N!

[Hards Alumni]

This is my favorite thing in a long time.

https://www.wired.com/story/gamestop-stock-wall-street-bets-short-squeeze/

Also, at 11am they had pushed it to 159

[JWags85]

This is my favorite thing in a long time.

https://www.wired.com/story/gamestop-stock-wall-street-bets-short-squeeze/

Also, at 11am they had pushed it to 159

WSB is going to lead to financial ruin for quite a few people. But it’s entertaining as hell in the meantime

And I mean actual financial ruin. That sub Reddit is littered with people using credit cards and other loan instruments to fund their plays. In the midst of a funny money market run where you can close your eyes and throw a dart and hit a 10-20% stock gain. That’s not to mention people using margin on RobinHood without any clue how it works.

GME went to 160...then dropped to 80.  I’d bet dollars to donuts it’s sub 50 by February.

[StillAWarrior]

WSB is going to lead to financial ruin for quite a few people. But it’s entertaining as hell in the meantime

And I mean actual financial ruin. That sub Reddit is littered with people using credit cards and other loan instruments to fund their plays. In the midst of a funny money market run where you can close your eyes and throw a dart and hit a 10-20% stock gain. That’s not to mention people using margin on RobinHood without any clue how it works.

GME went to 160...then dropped to 80.  I’d bet dollars to donuts it’s sub 50 by February.

You should short it. 

[MU82]

My daughter, son-in-law and new grandson are visiting us from Seattle this week. My SIL likes "betting" on tech stocks, and made a pretty good killing on MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, AMZN and NFLX, among others.

He couldn't resist buying some GME at 40, and he sold it at 160. Not many shares, though; he mostly did it, as Wags said, "for entertainment."

This isn't the kind of investing I like to do, so all of this silliness won't affect me much. I'm a boring, blue-chip-dividend-grower, buy-and-holdish kind of guy, though I do have a more speculative "bucket" that includes the likes of AMZN, GOOGL, FB, TSLA, DKNG, etc. A relatively small part of my portfolio, though.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

You should short it. 

Or go long puts, 3+ months out.

[Hards Alumni]

WSB is going to lead to financial ruin for quite a few people. But it’s entertaining as hell in the meantime

And I mean actual financial ruin. That sub Reddit is littered with people using credit cards and other loan instruments to fund their plays. In the midst of a funny money market run where you can close your eyes and throw a dart and hit a 10-20% stock gain. That’s not to mention people using margin on RobinHood without any clue how it works.

GME went to 160...then dropped to 80.  I’d bet dollars to donuts it’s sub 50 by February.

What I most enjoyed about it is that they are slowly figuring out how markets can be manipulated.  They're all psychos, and I would never entertain joining them, but I find the humor in it all.

[JWags85]

Or go long puts, 3+ months out.

Everything is so juiced. April $45Ps are $16.  That’s insanity, the IV is out of a control. The stock takes a 50% haircut and you are still very red on those puts.  Just not worth playing outside of commons right now.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Everything is so juiced. April $45Ps are $16.  That’s insanity, the IV is out of a control. The stock takes a 50% haircut and you are still very red on those puts.  Just not worth playing outside of commons right now.

Agreed, I took a look as well and just can't stomach the premiums.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Agreed, I took a look as well and just can't stomach the premiums.

Welp, changed my mind and went long the 2/19 30's with the stock at 114. We shall see.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Welp, changed my mind and went long the 2/19 30's with the stock at 114. We shall see.

Ha ha, should have waited another 10 minutes before pulling the trigger

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Ha ha, should have waited another 10 minutes before pulling the trigger

Oh my god, this market is insane. I bought puts at $230/contract with the stock at 114, and sold for a profit at $260/contract even though the stock was at 144. Makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

When I saw that the stock had spiked, I was actually going back in to double down, but then I saw the put prices had actually risen I took my profit and got the hell out.

[JWags85]

Oh my god, this market is insane. I bought puts at $230/contract with the stock at 114, and sold for a profit at $260/contract even though the stock was at 144. Makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

When I saw that the stock had spiked, I was actually going back in to double down, but then I saw the put prices had actually risen I took my profit and got the hell out.

Yea the IV levels are batty when you get a stock moving like this and a few months out. I remember I once had GOOGL calls for earnings, probably 6-7 weeks out. The stock dropped $25 one day and my calls actually ended up increasing in value that day

If GME opens up near 225-250, I’m gonna have a HARD time not grabbing puts

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Yea the IV levels are batty when you get a stock moving like this and a few months out. I remember I once had GOOGL calls for earnings, probably 6-7 weeks out. The stock dropped $25 one day and my calls actually ended up increasing in value that day

If GME opens up near 225-250, I’m gonna have a HARD time not grabbing puts

Yeah, I agree, if it opens above 200 I'll take another stab. Although honestly, it feels more like a spin on the roulette wheel than investing, or even trading, at this point. I mean, I held the puts for exactly 66 minutes, during which time the stock moved against me more than 25% yet my puts went up 13%.

I was also thinking about the insiders and execs that hold tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of shares, and how a short time ago they were holding $4 stock with a future that looked like JC Penney's. Well, the future still looks like JCP to me, but now they've been gifted this opportunity to cash in at least some north of $140/share.