Investing Thread

[MuggsyB]

Well, I guess I was wrong when I predicted that AAPL would settle in somewhere between $270 and $300 and remain there for a while.  It jumped to $340+ in just a matter of a couple of weeks.  Earnings call this Thursday should give us some interesting insights.  Cost increases leading to higher revenue, new leasing program just launched, new products announced, etc. 

It's now under 340.  Perhaps I will bump it up again. 

[Uncle Rico]

It's now under 340.  Perhaps I will bump it up again. 

Don't. It's going to crash.

[MuggsyB]

Don't. It's going to crash.

Ty. 

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Expect a sales bump in the next quarter when the wife and I buy new iphones.

[MU82]

Well, I guess I was wrong when I predicted that AAPL would settle in somewhere between $270 and $300 and remain there for a while.  It jumped to $340+ in just a matter of a couple of weeks.  Earnings call this Thursday should give us some interesting insights.  Cost increases leading to higher revenue, new leasing program just launched, new products announced, etc. 

AAPL is ridiculously overvalued. I'm not buying any shares here. But I'm also not selling what I have, as I've never sold a single share of AAPL stock over the decade-plus I've owned it. Over the long run, that has worked out pretty well for me.

But you're right about the earnings report. Given the multiple, it will have to be practically perfect for the stock price to avoid falling.

[jesmu84]

Top 1% own 50% of the market.

Bottom 50% own 1%.

Sheesh

When's the trickle down?

[Hards Alumni]

You don't feel the piss landing on your head?

[MU82]

The Fed held rates steady, though 3 Fed voters wanted to raise them and Warsh gave a slight hint that raising this year still was possible. The market, which had been flattish most of the session, went down significantly after the decision was announced and Warsh started talking.

Then, after hours, MSFT had a nice report but META missed on earnings and raised other red flags. As I'm writing this, MSFT is up about 3% after hours and META is down about 10%.

[Uncle Rico]

Space X gets $1.6 billion order from US Space Force.

Wonder how much Nancy Pelosi is getting out of this, eh?

[Uncle Rico]

Huh

https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-companies-hide-debt-off-balance-sheet

[Hards Alumni]

Huh

https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-companies-hide-debt-off-balance-sheet

What if I told you, they are not the only ones.  Certainly don't look into PE and life insurance.  Nope, don't look.

[Uncle Rico]

What if I told you, they are not the only ones.  Certainly don't look into PE and life insurance.  Nope, don't look.

Wonder if we'll do socialism and bail them out

[jesmu84]

What if I told you, they are not the only ones.  Certainly don't look into PE and life insurance.  Nope, don't look.

Should PE exist? Does it provide any societal benefit?

[MU82]

AAPL with a pretty strong report. But it was far from perfect, and shares are down 4% after hours as I write this. AMZN with a kick-azz report, and shares are up nearly 8%.

MSFT, which had a great report after Wednesday's close, gained 15.5% during today's regular session. It had been a wonderful MSFT buying opportunity much of this year, as dopes were punishing it along with SaaS stocks. Still looks pretty reasonable, but less so after today's rally.

[Skatastrophy]

Well, I guess I was wrong when I predicted that AAPL would settle in somewhere between $270 and $300 and remain there for a while.  It jumped to $340+ in just a matter of a couple of weeks.  Earnings call this Thursday should give us some interesting insights.  Cost increases leading to higher revenue, new leasing program just launched, new products announced, etc. 

They're down >5% after-hours

[MU82]

They're down >5% after-hours

Yeah, we'll see what tomorrow holds. Not that one-day results mean much of anything.

And speaking of one-day results, just saw this on WSJ:

Microsoft's $450 billion one-day gain in market capitalization was the largest by any U.S. business, ever. The company's stock surged 16% after its earnings quelled concerns that investments on data centers, chips and more would outpace the company's ability to generate cash.

A friend actually had to talk me into buying MSFT at $41 in 2015. Glad he did! Many regarded it as a "dividend growth" stock back then, with a 3% yield.

[Shaka Shart]

What if I told you, they are not the only ones.  Certainly don't look into PE and life insurance.  Nope, don't look.

Being compared to a blue chip company like Enron is enviable

[Jay Bee]

AAPL is ridiculously overvalued. I'm not buying any shares here. But I'm also not selling what I have, as I've never sold a single share of AAPL stock over the decade-plus I've owned it. Over the long run, that has worked out pretty well for me.

But you're right about the earnings report. Given the multiple, it will have to be practically perfect for the stock price to avoid falling.

Then why not take some gains today?

[JWags85]

Should PE exist? Does it provide any societal benefit?

Should it exist?  Absolutely, if its not breaking any laws.  Outlawing/banning/regulating out of business certain industries or companies is a path and trajectory I have no interest in going down.  You may find it distasteful or greedy or morally objectionable, but people can say that about the insurance industry, big tech, or even finance as a whole.  I don't want the government to decide what sorts of businesses can or can't exist, short of antitrust or similar clear examples.

As for societal benefit? It absolutely did at its inception.  I don't think people realize how bloated and absurd some companies and conglomerates got in the 80s.  Manufacturing conglomerates owned fast food chains.  Corporate raiders assembled holding companies targeting new and growing industries leaving the core businesses to wither on the vine.  The early pioneers of private equity not only made huge money in spinning off/selling pieces of the companies they acquired, but they often saved the businesses themselves.  Both the ones they sold and the ones they held and strengthened.

That in theory hasn't changed, but the corporate landscape has changed so much, and PE as a sector has grown so prodigiously, that PE firms have to change their focus to find returns and that leads to the bastardization of PE that we see now.  Rolling up medical practices in groups to shrink costs (at the expense of customer experience), stripping already lean/efficient companies even further to extract further profit (while sacrificing long term health for short term profits and an exit), etc...  So I can totally see the distaste for the current PE landscape as it stands.

One of my good friends is an associate at a PE firm in Dallas.  They specialize in manufacturing and supply chain modernization/globalization, specifically adding/modifying an existing company's structure to leave most of it intact.  His first project, one of their companies closed a costly/inefficient location in Oklahoma and bought a factory in Mexico, but in doing so ended up adding more jobs at their HQ and another facility in total.  Another his boss stepped in as CFO as they spun off the Indian division of a tech manufacturer to a local company, creating a new supplier, that would have otherwise led to the US company shuttering the business and chopping the US labor force that worked with it.  Meanwhile, their main competitor fund's strategy is the classic "chop jobs domestically, move them to cheaper Asian locales" that brings much faster returns, but lower overall returns.

I certainly don't think his firm and the principals are altruistic angels, they are still in it for returns on capital and profits. But at least they realize that companies are made up of people, not just numbers on a balance sheet, and often times catering to the people/workforce can be most beneficial to long term company health, and thus returns.

But there are many people (not accusing you of this) who fail to process, willfully or otherwise, that businesses exist to make money.  For those people, industries like PE will never make sense or sit right with them, fundamentally.

[MuggsyB]

AAPL down 9%.  Rico saved me! 

[Uncle Rico]

AAPL down 9%.  Rico saved me! 

I only invest in oil and coal

[MU82]

Then why not take some gains today?

That's a legit question, JB, but I'm not a trader, I'm a buy-and-hold guy. If I traded in and out of AAPL over the years, I believe that I almost surely would have done worse than I have by simply holding through the ups and downs. Mostly ups.

Every stock and fund I own was thoroughly researched. I bought them for the long-term, and doing so has worked out pretty darn well for me and my family.

I'll leave the trading to those who get thrills out of doing it. And that's not a criticism of traders. I know several who have done very well. It's just not my thing.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I can't believe the market STILL falls for Rump's manipulative, fact free bleats.

[MU82]

I can't believe the market STILL falls for Rump's manipulative, fact free bleats.

What? You don't believe the best peace talks ever ... the bigliest bombings ever ... the best peace talks ever ... the bigliest bombings ever ... the best peace talks ever ... the bigliest bombings ever ... the best peace talks ever are imminent?

[Jay Bee]

Up up and awaaayyy!!!

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