Investing Thread

[TSmith34, Inc.]

TACO

[MU82]

"I am please to report that I tipped off my famly and bilionaire kronies in advans so wee all culd make money off this."

[Pakuni]

No way!

S&P 500 futures and oil futures flashed an unusual burst of activity early Monday minutes before a market-moving social media post from President Donald Trump.

At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop. With thin liquidity typical of early trading hours, the sudden burst stood out as one of the largest volume moments of the session up to that point.

A similar pattern was observed in oil markets. West Texas Intermediate May futures also saw a noticeable pickup in trading activity at roughly the same time, with a distinct volume spike interrupting otherwise quiet conditions.

Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held talks and that he was halting planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. That announcement prompted an instant rally in risk assets, with S&P 500 futures soaring more than 2.5% before the opening bell. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped nearly 6% following the announcement.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futures-surged-minutes-before-trumps-market-turning-post.html

[Uncle Rico]

No way!

S&P 500 futures and oil futures flashed an unusual burst of activity early Monday minutes before a market-moving social media post from President Donald Trump.

At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop. With thin liquidity typical of early trading hours, the sudden burst stood out as one of the largest volume moments of the session up to that point.

A similar pattern was observed in oil markets. West Texas Intermediate May futures also saw a noticeable pickup in trading activity at roughly the same time, with a distinct volume spike interrupting otherwise quiet conditions.

Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held talks and that he was halting planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. That announcement prompted an instant rally in risk assets, with S&P 500 futures soaring more than 2.5% before the opening bell. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped nearly 6% following the announcement.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futures-surged-minutes-before-trumps-market-turning-post.html

It's not like they bought a painting

[jesmu84]

No way!

S&P 500 futures and oil futures flashed an unusual burst of activity early Monday minutes before a market-moving social media post from President Donald Trump.

At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop. With thin liquidity typical of early trading hours, the sudden burst stood out as one of the largest volume moments of the session up to that point.

A similar pattern was observed in oil markets. West Texas Intermediate May futures also saw a noticeable pickup in trading activity at roughly the same time, with a distinct volume spike interrupting otherwise quiet conditions.

Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held talks and that he was halting planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. That announcement prompted an instant rally in risk assets, with S&P 500 futures soaring more than 2.5% before the opening bell. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped nearly 6% following the announcement.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futures-surged-minutes-before-trumps-market-turning-post.html

https://x.com/i/status/2036056947728818462

[Jockey]

Using the lives of American soldier to enrich himself and his friends. 

No one could have predicted this. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

https://x.com/i/status/2036056947728818462

And his cultists that screamed "Hunter Biden's laptop!" do not care. Just as his cultists that screamed "what do we tell the kids" re Bill & Monica do not care. Just as his cultists that screamed "no more wars" do not care.

[TallTitan34]

And his cultists that screamed "Hunter Biden's laptop!" do not care. Just as his cultists that screamed "what do we tell the kids" re Bill & Monica do not care. Just as his cultists that screamed "no more wars" do not care.

Anything to own the libs.

Even if it means owning themselves in the process.

[Jockey]

3 names immediately come to mind.

Kushner, Bessent, and Lutnick. None of them have the morals of satan.

[MU82]

3 names immediately come to mind.

Kushner, Bessent, and Lutnick. None of them have the morals of satan.

It was enlightening listening to Bessent explain why it was OK for his boss to celebrate the death of a Purple Heart/Bronze Star Marine hero.

[MU82]

No way!

S&P 500 futures and oil futures flashed an unusual burst of activity early Monday minutes before a market-moving social media post from President Donald Trump.

At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop. With thin liquidity typical of early trading hours, the sudden burst stood out as one of the largest volume moments of the session up to that point.

A similar pattern was observed in oil markets. West Texas Intermediate May futures also saw a noticeable pickup in trading activity at roughly the same time, with a distinct volume spike interrupting otherwise quiet conditions.

Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held talks and that he was halting planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. That announcement prompted an instant rally in risk assets, with S&P 500 futures soaring more than 2.5% before the opening bell. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped nearly 6% following the announcement.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futures-surged-minutes-before-trumps-market-turning-post.html

From Axios:

An epidemic of suspicious trading has emerged around President Trump's most consequential decisions, Axios' Zachary Basu reports.

++ On Monday, $580 million in oil futures flooded the market roughly 16 minutes before Trump announced a pause in strikes on Iranian power plants.

++ On the Friday before the war began, more than 150 Polymarket accounts placed hundreds of bets predicting a U.S. strike on Iran by the next day, according to a New York Times analysis.

++ On Jan. 2, a trader turned roughly $32,000 into more than $400,000 by betting on the capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro before it was announced the next morning.

++ Last April, a surge of bullish stock trades appeared minutes before Trump announced a 90-day pause on his "Liberation Day" tariffs.

White House counsel David Warrington tells Axios: "The president has no involvement in business deals that would implicate his constitutional responsibilities. President Trump performs his constitutional duties in an ethically sound manner and to suggest otherwise is either ill-informed or malicious."

[TSmith34, Inc.]

3 names immediately come to mind.

Kushner, Bessent, and Lutnick. None of them have the morals of satan.

Subtract Bessent, add Don & Eric

[MU82]

From the WSJ:

Wall Street had another bang-up year, and its employees are reaping the rewards. The total bonus pool for the New York City securities industry reached a record $49.2 billion for 2025, up 9 percent from 2024, according to an estimate released today by the office of the New York State comptroller, Thomas DiNapoli.

The average bonus was $246,900, about the starting price of a new Porsche 911 Turbo. Banks could afford to be generous: Wall Street's collective profits rose 30 percent in 2025 to $65.1 billion.

[Uncle Rico]

NM

[MU82]

The S&P 500 slid for its fifth straight week and is down about 7% this year. Nasdaq is in correction territory. Oil prices have soared. Gold is well off its record high. Bitcoin is languishing. Mortgage rates have climbed.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development just raised its inflation forecast to average 4.2 percent this year. The VIX is trading at its highest level in a year. And markets have taken the possibility of rate cuts this year completely off the table, with the odds of a rate hike in 2026 about equal to those of a cut.

You know, I really am getting sick and tired of all this winning!

[MU82]

Tax Foundation: Liberation Day taxes did not make the U.S. economy better

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4570764-tax-foundation-liberation-day-taxes-did-not-make-the-us-economy-better?

A year after U.S. President Trump declared April 2 "Liberation Day" and promised his tariffs would mark the day "American industry was reborn," none of the administration's central economic claims have materialized, experts from Tax Foundation said in a recent article.

The tariff regime, which at its peak reached the highest rates since 1911, was struck down by the Supreme Court in February 2026 when justices ruled the authority used to impose them was not authorized.

While Trump claimed up to $18T in new foreign investment would flow into the U.S. and that "jobs and factories will come roaring back," the data tells a starkly different story, Tax Foundation experts said.

According to their report, actual foreign direct investment totaled just $288.4B in 2025—below the prior 10-year average of $320.7B—and manufacturing employment declined by 89,000 jobs between April 2025 and February 2026, continuing a pre-existing downward trend.

Tax Foundation experts noted that while tariffs generated $264B in customs duties in 2025, this fell far short of the president's prediction that they would "bring in trillions and trillions of dollars to pay down America's debt."

The research shows that net revenue was further diminished because tariffs mechanically reduced income and payroll tax collections, and the federal debt continued to grow throughout the administration.

Contrary to claims that domestic production would deliver "lower prices for consumers," research from Harvard's Pricing Lab estimates a 24% tariff pass-through to retail prices, contributing 0.76 percentage points to Consumer Price Index inflation.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attributed much of the remaining inflation to tariffs, explaining that "these elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs."

The analysis concludes that "the evidence shows the tariffs were not reciprocal," explaining that rates were not based on actual foreign trade barriers but on synthetic calculations derived from bilateral goods trade balances.

The Tax Foundation noted that U.S. tariff policy changed more than 50 times in a single year, creating volatility and uncertainty that weighed heavily on investment and hiring decisions throughout the economy.

[Uncle Rico]

Tax Foundation: Liberation Day taxes did not make the U.S. economy better

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4570764-tax-foundation-liberation-day-taxes-did-not-make-the-us-economy-better?

A year after U.S. President Trump declared April 2 "Liberation Day" and promised his tariffs would mark the day "American industry was reborn," none of the administration's central economic claims have materialized, experts from Tax Foundation said in a recent article.

The tariff regime, which at its peak reached the highest rates since 1911, was struck down by the Supreme Court in February 2026 when justices ruled the authority used to impose them was not authorized.

While Trump claimed up to $18T in new foreign investment would flow into the U.S. and that "jobs and factories will come roaring back," the data tells a starkly different story, Tax Foundation experts said.

According to their report, actual foreign direct investment totaled just $288.4B in 2025—below the prior 10-year average of $320.7B—and manufacturing employment declined by 89,000 jobs between April 2025 and February 2026, continuing a pre-existing downward trend.

Tax Foundation experts noted that while tariffs generated $264B in customs duties in 2025, this fell far short of the president's prediction that they would "bring in trillions and trillions of dollars to pay down America's debt."

The research shows that net revenue was further diminished because tariffs mechanically reduced income and payroll tax collections, and the federal debt continued to grow throughout the administration.

Contrary to claims that domestic production would deliver "lower prices for consumers," research from Harvard's Pricing Lab estimates a 24% tariff pass-through to retail prices, contributing 0.76 percentage points to Consumer Price Index inflation.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attributed much of the remaining inflation to tariffs, explaining that "these elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs."

The analysis concludes that "the evidence shows the tariffs were not reciprocal," explaining that rates were not based on actual foreign trade barriers but on synthetic calculations derived from bilateral goods trade balances.

The Tax Foundation noted that U.S. tariff policy changed more than 50 times in a single year, creating volatility and uncertainty that weighed heavily on investment and hiring decisions throughout the economy.

Filed under "Duh"

[Uncle Rico]

When you lose Fox Business

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mikaf7ljwq2c

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Things should be messy today.  This administration dropped a bunch of big changes to metal tariffs on Thursday afternoon that take effect today of course right after a holiday weekend.

[Jay Bee]

Things should be messy today.  This administration dropped a bunch of big changes to metal tariffs on Thursday afternoon that take effect today of course right after a holiday weekend.

Is today messy?

[Uncle Rico]

Is today messy?

For people that are in these businesses?  Almost certainly.  As someone that deals with imported goods on a daily basis, adjusting prices and costs on the whims of an economic midget is always messy. 

The constant uncertainty makes doing business so much easier. 

[MU82]

Is today messy?

Yes.

Trying to invest is challenging when a demented narcissistic felon is constantly gaming the market with his Whims Du Jour.

[Jay Bee]

Yes.

Trying to invest is challenging when a demented narcissistic felon is constantly gaming the market with his Whims Du Jour.

You say, "a demented narcissistic felon", I say, "YOUR president". Tom-Toms!

[Uncle Rico]

You say, "a demented narcissistic felon", I say, "YOUR president". Tom-Toms!

Therein lies the problem.  When you have a demented narcissistic felon as president who is mentally unstable and an economic idiot, the market is messy.  Pretty simple.

[MU82]

You say, "a demented narcissistic felon", I say, "YOUR president". Tom-Toms!

The comma and the period should have been inside the quote marks.