Investing Thread

[Hards Alumni]

Has anyone been wrong here more than Goose?

Yes, plenty of people.

[Uncle Rico]

Another terrible jobs report.  Unemployment highest it's been in 4 years.

Sad!

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Another terrible jobs report.  Unemployment highest it's been in 4 years.

Sad!

Greatest economy the world has ever seen!

[Uncle Rico]

Greatest economy the world has ever seen!

The good news is, billionaires are still profiting from tax cuts!

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Seeking Alpha article about foreboding economic signs:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4819606-4-recent-troubling-signs-for-the-us-economy

A couple of things about the author:

++ He is pretty much a perma-bear. He's been dooming and glooming for at least a couple years now.

++ He pizzes off those on the right because they think he is casting the administration in a poor light, but he is a Republican who voted for the current president in 2016, 2020 and 2024, and often defends the administration's policies within comment streams.

Anyway, it's a data-filled piece that some investors and/or economy watchers might find interesting.

I met with a customer and a very large international manufacturer last week.

They are just paying tariffs, they are charging any tariff they pay to their customers who happen to be automotive manufactures.  The exact quote to me was "the CEO's of GM, Ford, Stellantis and others can complain direct to Trump why new car prices went from $50k to $65k overnight."

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Another terrible jobs report.  Unemployment highest it's been in 4 years.

Sad!

Nobody could have foreseen this turn of events. Nobody.

[Uncle Rico]

Nobody could have foreseen this turn of events. Nobody.

At least we avoided socialism except for the Intel deal and the move towards central planning.  But other than that, we've avoided socialism

[Skatastrophy]

The tarrifs are building a soverign wealth fund which the dudes in charge will control. Their goal is to become the next Saudi Arabia. Their goal was never to improve the economy. This was telegraphed from the beginning. They are not going to give up control of that fund.

[JWags85]

The tarrifs are building a soverign wealth fund which the dudes in charge will control. Their goal is to become the next Saudi Arabia. Their goal was never to improve the economy. This was telegraphed from the beginning. They are not going to give up control of that fund.

Interesting, any commentary on that?  Legitimately interested in reading angles on that.

[Skatastrophy]

Interesting, any commentary on that?  Legitimately interested in reading angles on that.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/a-plan-for-establishing-a-united-states-sovereign-wealth-fund/

There's a lot of comments/commentary on it, as you'd imagine. I'm not sure everyone has put two and two together that if these dudes build a sovereign wealth fund they're not going to just give it up in 3 years.

Edit: I'm in the middle of something so I don't have time to find a reputable source, but here's a think tank piece on it https://www.cato.org/blog/us-sovereign-wealth-fund-tariffs Quickly reading through the piece, it's clear to me that they're missing the intended use of the SWF. But they drew the direct line between tariffs and the SWF.

[Uncle Rico]

The tarrifs are building a soverign wealth fund which the dudes in charge will control. Their goal is to become the next Saudi Arabia. Their goal was never to improve the economy. This was telegraphed from the beginning. They are not going to give up control of that fund.

Oligarchs going to oligarch. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/a-plan-for-establishing-a-united-states-sovereign-wealth-fund/

There's a lot of comments/commentary on it, as you'd imagine. I'm not sure everyone has put two and two together that if these dudes build a sovereign wealth fund they're not going to just give it up in 3 years.

Edit: I'm in the middle of something so I don't have time to find a reputable source, but here's a think tank piece on it https://www.cato.org/blog/us-sovereign-wealth-fund-tariffs Quickly reading through the piece, it's clear to me that they're missing the intended use of the SWF. But they drew the direct line between tariffs and the SWF.

They are not going to give up control of anything, including the House of Representatives in 2026.

Invest accordingly.

[MU82]

From the NYT:

The only sector adding significant jobs was health care, at 31,000 jobs. Almost every other industry subtracted jobs, including manufacturing, which dropped 12,000 positions, and has lost 78,000 positions over the year.


Also ...

In an interview on CNBC, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist David Kelly said, "The economy is not in recession yet, but it is slowing slowly."

He said the expected Fed rate cut won't be a panacea: "The whole history of the 21st century is rate cuts don't stimulate growth.

Kelly identified uncertainty as the primary drag on economic performance, dubbing it "the biggest tax that the government levies." He pointed to changing policies on tariffs, immigration, geopolitics, and the dollar as factors causing businesses to hesitate on expansion and hiring decisions. "When everybody decides to wait and see, what you see is not good," he warned.

[The Sultan]

In an interview on CNBC, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist David Kelly said, "The economy is not in recession yet, but it is slowing slowly."

He said the expected Fed rate cut won't be a panacea: "The whole history of the 21st century is rate cuts don't stimulate growth.

Kelly identified uncertainty as the primary drag on economic performance, dubbing it "the biggest tax that the government levies." He pointed to changing policies on tariffs, immigration, geopolitics, and the dollar as factors causing businesses to hesitate on expansion and hiring decisions. "When everybody decides to wait and see, what you see is not good," he warned.

We literally had this conversation on campus earlier this week. We have two projects that we would like to start, but the uncertainty around federal grants and international enrollment has made us decide to pause. Could we afford it now? Yes. Could we afford it if circumstances change? Well....that's more problematic.

[Jockey]

Another terrible jobs report.  Unemployment highest it's been in 4 years.

Sad!

Can he fire the entire Labor Dept. for putting out these lies?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Can he fire the entire Labor Dept. for putting out these lies?

Yes. Once he gets Antoni (or another similar taint licker) in place, that person will fire anyone with competence or integrity--see RFK, Jr. at HHS.

There are a number of private surveys out there, such as the one by ADP, which will become more important. Other private surveys will have to fill the vacuum of trustworthiness.

[Uncle Rico]

This should encourage foreign investment in America:

https://bsky.app/profile/msnbc.com/post/3ly4a5gizls2d

[jesmu84]

Are fed rate cuts inflationary? Especially if the rates are zero or near zero

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Lutnick admitting they intend to "take out" the people who produce numbers at BLS currently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aH07HCCTWY

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Lutnick admitting they intend to "take out" the people who produce numbers at BLS currently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aH07HCCTWY

Also, Goose just needs to wait 6-12 months for the greatest economy in the history of the world, according to Lutnick, as "trillions of dollars" are invested in factories here. So that's good.

[Shaka Shart]

Yes. Once he gets Antoni (or another similar taint licker) in place, that person will fire anyone with competence or integrity--see RFK, Jr. at HHS.

There are a number of private surveys out there, such as the one by ADP, which will become more important. Other private surveys will have to fill the vacuum of trustworthiness.

Please don't kink shame us actual taint lickers

[Uncle Rico]

Also, Goose just needs to wait 6-12 months for the greatest economy in the history of the world, according to Lutnick, as "trillions of dollars" are invested in factories here. So that's good.

I don't believe him