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Author Topic: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season  (Read 110928 times)

RushmoreAcademy

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #400 on: January 09, 2019, 08:53:17 AM »
I understand this, but I don’t think Baumgarner is that guy. His advanced stats have him more of a mid rotation guy and he’s been benefitting from his home park. They could go after a mid-level FA and get similar results without giving up any prospects.

For sure. And you're probably right about MadBum.  But that's the decision Stearns has to make: is he or isn't he the guy.  If he feels like you, then for sure you don't make that deal for anything you really value.  But if he thinks he is, time to give up whatever. I'm a Cubs fan, but if I were a Brewers fan, I would seemingly have a lot of trust in what Stearns does at this point. 
You guys remind me of where we were after the 2015 season, where we made that a run a lot sooner than expected. In 16 we gave up Gleyber Torres for a few months of Chapman, which was by all means insane because Torres has a whole career of good ball ahead of him.   But we don't win the WS without Chapman that year, despite game 7.
It paid off so nobody can complain now.  If we didn't though we'd still be hearing about it.

MUBurrow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #401 on: January 09, 2019, 11:35:25 AM »
Does that even matter?  Who would you rather have on the mound in the playoffs?  Peralta or Bumgarner?  Seems like a pretty easy question. 

And I guess the difference is that for me, this isn't the question. I think we've been unduly influenced by the "now or never" 2011 run and the traditional model of trading prospects for 162 games of guys to get you over the hump.  This Brewers roster doesn't look like a "1 or 2 year window" type team to me.  They have 4 years of Yelich, Cain, and Arcia, 3 years of Shaw, and host of controllable #2/3-long reliever type pitchers in Nelson, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Hader.  Whether or not that looks like a WS contender can be debated, but if you think they're really good, they will be good for years.  If you think they were smoke and mirrors last year and are destined for regression, then they're more than a 2019 Madison Bumgarner away. Either way, its tough for me to get excited about the idea of trading controllable mid-tier starting pitching for MadBum.

I understand this, but I don’t think Baumgarner is that guy. His advanced stats have him more of a mid rotation guy and he’s been benefitting from his home park. They could go after a mid-level FA and get similar results without giving up any prospects.

My opinion above is also completely colored by this.  His peripherals are plummeting, and he hasn't pitched more than 130 big league innings in two years, after going over 1,000 between 2011-2016 - plus another 100 playoff innings during that stretch.  While his playoff runs were historic, I don't think anyone would be excited about a MadBum trade in "Player-A vs Player-B" blind resume test.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #402 on: January 09, 2019, 12:41:34 PM »
I understand this, but I don’t think Baumgarner is that guy. His advanced stats have him more of a mid rotation guy and he’s been benefitting from his home park. They could go after a mid-level FA and get similar results without giving up any prospects.
This.  Not that Bum isn't still a solid mid-rotation guy, but he isn't the super stud he once was.  Can potentially get the same production elsewhere without giving up control of young guys.
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Litehouse

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #403 on: January 09, 2019, 01:26:56 PM »
No way I'd trade Burnes, Woodruff or Peralta for Bumgarner, but I'd make the trade for Corey Ray.  Quality pitching is just too difficult to find.

BrewCity83

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #404 on: January 09, 2019, 04:52:00 PM »
No way I'd trade Burnes, Woodruff or Peralta for Bumgarner, but I'd make the trade for Corey Ray.  Quality pitching is just too difficult to find.
Agreed.  Maybe for Peralta, but not for either of the other two guys.  As good as Ray may become, the Brewers are set in 2 of the 3 OF positions for 4 more years, and they have other stud outfielders coming up through the system, so Ray could be expendable for a one year "Ace" like MadBum.  And I call him an ace because he would become the Brewers de facto ace on the current roster.
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Pakuni

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #405 on: January 09, 2019, 10:54:06 PM »
Brewers sign Grandal.
1 year,  $18.25 million 

GB Warrior

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #406 on: January 09, 2019, 10:59:10 PM »
Brewers sign Grandal.
1 year,  $18.25 million

Very little downside to this. If he's worth it, you get first shot at resigning him or (more likely), you get a shot at recouping the QO pick they'll lose this year

wadesworld

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #407 on: January 09, 2019, 11:05:40 PM »
Grandal almost sent the Brewers to the WS last year.  He gets another shot at it this year.  I hope he succeeds.
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buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #408 on: January 09, 2019, 11:18:19 PM »
Very little downside to this. If he's worth it, you get first shot at resigning him or (more likely), you get a shot at recouping the QO pick they'll lose this year

No you can't.  Players can't receive the QO twice. 

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #409 on: January 09, 2019, 11:29:49 PM »
And I guess the difference is that for me, this isn't the question. I think we've been unduly influenced by the "now or never" 2011 run and the traditional model of trading prospects for 162 games of guys to get you over the hump.  This Brewers roster doesn't look like a "1 or 2 year window" type team to me.  They have 4 years of Yelich, Cain, and Arcia, 3 years of Shaw, and host of controllable #2/3-long reliever type pitchers in Nelson, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Hader.  Whether or not that looks like a WS contender can be debated, but if you think they're really good, they will be good for years.  If you think they were smoke and mirrors last year and are destined for regression, then they're more than a 2019 Madison Bumgarner away. Either way, its tough for me to get excited about the idea of trading controllable mid-tier starting pitching for MadBum.

My opinion above is also completely colored by this.  His peripherals are plummeting, and he hasn't pitched more than 130 big league innings in two years, after going over 1,000 between 2011-2016 - plus another 100 playoff innings during that stretch.  While his playoff runs were historic, I don't think anyone would be excited about a MadBum trade in "Player-A vs Player-B" blind resume test.

No, they aren't a one year window team.  But why waste a prime year?  If he costs you Ray and Peralta, to me that is a no brainer. 

Maybe he won't win the Cy Young.  Maybe, over 162, he pitches like a 3 starter.  Ok that's fine.  The bottom line is this:

HE IS ONE OF THE BEST POSTSEASON PITCHERS IN MLB HISTORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If your goal is to have a long term run of success like the Dodgers, without winning anything, fine, think long term.  If the goal is to bring Milwaukee its first World Series Championship, Bumgarner is the guy you want pitching in the postseason.  Is it risky to trade Peralta and Ray for him?  Maybe, but that isn't even a sure thing. 

You wouldn't trade this
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=peralt000fre

for this
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=bumgama01&t=p&post=1#7-16-sum:pitching_gamelogs_post

Teams can get too caught up in looking long term.  When you are in your window, and have a chance to win, you need to take it.  You need to blow through the salary cap like Boston.  Or trade Gleyber Torres.  The Brewers are a team that could contend for the World Series.  Their one obvious weakness is their SPs, especially in the playoffs.  He isn't a massive commitment in years or dollars, I think he is an absolutely perfect fit for the Brewers.  And I can't imagine being gun shy about acquiring him for Freddy Peralta.   

wadesworld

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #410 on: January 10, 2019, 12:07:54 AM »
I actually think the starting rotation is very underrated for Milwaukee. My hope is they bring Miley back. If they do that there is a lot of depth there. Chacin, Nelson, Anderson, Woodruff, Burnes, Davies, Miley, Peralta.

Having said that I’ll repeat I have no problem trading Peralta to get MadBum. We need to only look 90 miles south to the NL Central runner ups to see what trading for a former ace who appears washed up can do for a pitching rotation.
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SaveOD238

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #411 on: January 10, 2019, 07:40:08 AM »
I actually think the starting rotation is very underrated for Milwaukee. My hope is they bring Miley back. If they do that there is a lot of depth there. Chacin, Nelson, Anderson, Woodruff, Burnes, Davies, Miley, Peralta.

What I see there is a very deep rotation of starters whose ceilings are #2-#3 guys.  If the Brewers go into 2019 with just that group, expect to see a lot of funny rotation management. 

I wouldn't be too shocked to see Counsell implement a piggy-back starters plan, like they do in the minors.  Put everyone on three days rest, but schedule two guys for each game.  Start Chacin for 4-5 innings, then bring in Davies for 3-4, and bull pen to finish.  Next day, run Nelson out there and bring in Anderson for a change of pace mid-game. 

CreightonWarrior

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #412 on: January 10, 2019, 07:42:48 AM »
He'll be he highest paid player on the team, which will be interesting. I expected Kratz to have a huge drop off so I'm ok with it. I think Grandal was in his own head in the post season, which I was perfectly fine with. Not sure what our budget is or where this puts them for the rest of the free agency window but 2b is still a black hole that hopefully they can put someone like lawrie into. I doubt the team can afford someone like dj lemahieu now, which I'm ok with.

SaveOD238

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #413 on: January 10, 2019, 08:38:30 AM »
2b is still a black hole

Only until Hiura and/or Dubon show up.  Perez/Saladino/Spangenberg might be enough for a few months.

jficke13

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #414 on: January 10, 2019, 09:13:43 AM »
Only until Hiura and/or Dubon show up.  Perez/Saladino/Spangenberg might be enough for a few months.

I think that the problem with filling the 2B hole is not wanting to commit to more than one year on a deal with anyone simply because Hiura and Dubon are waiting in the wings.

I'm guessing one or both to get on the big club and to hold down the position as the primary starter by year's end.

Chili

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #415 on: January 10, 2019, 09:38:46 AM »
I think that the problem with filling the 2B hole is not wanting to commit to more than one year on a deal with anyone simply because Hiura and Dubon are waiting in the wings.

I'm guessing one or both to get on the big club and to hold down the position as the primary starter by year's end.

Still holding out hope for Marwin Gonlzalez. Can hold down 2B until kids are ready to come up and then can play the role he did for Houston as a super UT. Also, as a switch hitter provides even versatility.
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MUBurrow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #416 on: January 10, 2019, 09:45:04 AM »
Maybe he won't win the Cy Young.  Maybe, over 162, he pitches like a 3 starter.  Ok that's fine.  The bottom line is this:

HE IS ONE OF THE BEST POSTSEASON PITCHERS IN MLB HISTORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If your goal is to have a long term run of success like the Dodgers, without winning anything, fine, think long term.  If the goal is to bring Milwaukee its first World Series Championship, Bumgarner is the guy you want pitching in the postseason. 

I don't understand what you're saying here.  Is the argument that he pitches like a #3 starter until the playoffs, at which point the Brewers would count on him to morph back into a superhero? Because trading Peralta and Ray for a guy that pitches to #3 numbers, when the Brewers already have #3/4 depth, is not fine.  To Wades' point, the optimistic view is guys like Lester, Verlander, and even Hamels, who all pitched a bunch of innings, declined, and then bounced back after trades. But MadBum's mid-decade playoff success doesn't make this a no brainer. I'm not selling the farm for Hunter Pence either.

No, they aren't a one year window team.  But why waste a prime year?  If he costs you Ray and Peralta, to me that is a no brainer...

Teams can get too caught up in looking long term.  When you are in your window, and have a chance to win, you need to take it.  You need to blow through the salary cap like Boston.  Or trade Gleyber Torres.  The Brewers are a team that could contend for the World Series.  Their one obvious weakness is their SPs, especially in the playoffs.  He isn't a massive commitment in years or dollars, I think he is an absolutely perfect fit for the Brewers.  And I can't imagine being gun shy about acquiring him for Freddy Peralta.   

The opportunity cost of trading prospects isn't just that you're mortgaging the future. Even if you view prospects as nothing but trade capital, it restricts your ability to make future deals.  Take Moose - pretty decent production: .256 avg, 8 bombs, a clutch postseason hit, lineup protection, clear L/R splits. But that cost Brett Phillips, who at the time was the team's #10 prospect.  Was 64 games of Moose worth the #10 prospect? A good debate to be had, and that's acknowledging that Phillips was blocked and I couldn't care less about never seeing him on the big league roster.  But maybe he could have been a part of this MadBum deal and we wouldn't be talking about Corey Ray.   This year, due to the Claudio deal and Grandal signing, the Brewers have 2 picks in the top 100.  Again, that's fine, but this adds up. Fangraphs already puts Mil's farm system at #22 in the majors.  Most publications had it 4-8 pre-2017.  The Brewers have already been priced out of Kluber.  What if Washington turns seller and deals Strasburg? What if Zack Wheeler repeats his 2018 and is available at the deadline?

MUBurrow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #417 on: January 10, 2019, 10:04:01 AM »
Still holding out hope for Marwin Gonlzalez. Can hold down 2B until kids are ready to come up and then can play the role he did for Houston as a super UT. Also, as a switch hitter provides even versatility.

I'd love Marwin, but I think he's going to get paid. MLBTR had him at 36 over 4, and I think once Machado is off the market, teams are going to start lining up for him.  I still think there's an outside chance one of the decent names on the 2B market is left without a chair as spring training draws closer, though, and maybe settles for a 1 year $3-5M-ish deal. Asdrubal Cabrera could be a really nice, versatile piece if Mil can find the payroll flexibility to fit him in. Ditto Josh Harrison.  Derek Dietrich can do stuff.

CreightonWarrior

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #418 on: January 10, 2019, 12:20:30 PM »
I get the impressions from Haudricourt that the Grandal deal has priced us out of Bumgarner, so it sounds moot at this point.

Also mentioned that we're still aggressive on getting a 2b.

RushmoreAcademy

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #419 on: January 10, 2019, 01:10:21 PM »
Speaking as a Cubs fan (I always feel the need to start with that when discussing the Crew), the thing that most impressed me last season was the managing of the rotation.  It was so unconventional and honestly brilliantly done by Counsell.   Is that sustainable?   Counsell of course did things that way because the bullpen was the strength of his team.  Whether or not it still is may depend on what they do with Burnes and Woodruff, but let's say there's no big trade and the bullpen is still the strength.  Can that work for another season?  The fact that it worked for all last year shocked me, and that's what makes me actually ask this instead of just say no way.   The problem, of course, is that the more guys you have to rely on of the course of a game, the more likely somebody is going to have an off day.
Either way, Counsell has made me believe that he will find a way to get the most out of his players and use them each in a way that benefits the team.
Central is going to be a warzone this year.

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #420 on: January 10, 2019, 03:45:42 PM »
I don't understand what you're saying here.  Is the argument that he pitches like a #3 starter until the playoffs, at which point the Brewers would count on him to morph back into a superhero? Because trading Peralta and Ray for a guy that pitches to #3 numbers, when the Brewers already have #3/4 depth, is not fine.  To Wades' point, the optimistic view is guys like Lester, Verlander, and even Hamels, who all pitched a bunch of innings, declined, and then bounced back after trades. But MadBum's mid-decade playoff success doesn't make this a no brainer. I'm not selling the farm for Hunter Pence either.

The opportunity cost of trading prospects isn't just that you're mortgaging the future. Even if you view prospects as nothing but trade capital, it restricts your ability to make future deals.  Take Moose - pretty decent production: .256 avg, 8 bombs, a clutch postseason hit, lineup protection, clear L/R splits. But that cost Brett Phillips, who at the time was the team's #10 prospect.  Was 64 games of Moose worth the #10 prospect? A good debate to be had, and that's acknowledging that Phillips was blocked and I couldn't care less about never seeing him on the big league roster.  But maybe he could have been a part of this MadBum deal and we wouldn't be talking about Corey Ray.   This year, due to the Claudio deal and Grandal signing, the Brewers have 2 picks in the top 100.  Again, that's fine, but this adds up. Fangraphs already puts Mil's farm system at #22 in the majors.  Most publications had it 4-8 pre-2017.  The Brewers have already been priced out of Kluber.  What if Washington turns seller and deals Strasburg? What if Zack Wheeler repeats his 2018 and is available at the deadline?

If that is the comparison you make.  Well, I don't know what to tell you.  Other than maybe watch more baseball. Bumgarner would have had the best ERA on the Brewers last year - by quite a bit (except Miley, nut he threw 50 more innings).  2nd best in K/9, best in K/BB.  I think you are being either hyperbolic or ignorant here.

And yeah, I think you can count him to Ace up in the playoffs.  Do you think pitching in the llayoffs is different?  Bumgarner seems to thrive on it where others wilt.

Oh, and Strasburg has like 5 more years on his deal.  I don't think he'd be the guy sold off, and if he was he would cost a lot more than Ray and Peralta.  Then you have to pay him what remains of the 130 million that is on his deal, which doesn't seem like a Brewer thing to do (I am assuming it is unlikely he opts out).

Another note, Corey Ray K'd in 33% of his ABs in AA.  It isn't like he is Vlad Jr.  There is a high ceiling for him, but also a high variance.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2019, 03:50:09 PM by buckchuckler »

MUBurrow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #421 on: January 11, 2019, 09:41:05 AM »
If that is the comparison you make.  Well, I don't know what to tell you.  Other than maybe watch more baseball. Bumgarner would have had the best ERA on the Brewers last year - by quite a bit (except Miley, nut he threw 50 more innings).  2nd best in K/9, best in K/BB.  I think you are being either hyperbolic or ignorant here.

Again, I'm not arguing that Bumgarner wouldn't slot in as a useful piece on the Brewers. But of the numbers you're citing: his ERA was 3.26 - three Brewers starters were below 4.0; his K/9 were 7.6 - four Brewers starters were above 7; his K/BB 2.53 - 5 Brewers starters were were 2.2 or higher. If you're using his 2018 numbers, he looks like just another guy in the context of the rest of the Brewers staff (already a group of just a bunch of guys).  He averages out to about the #1.5-2 starter.  Add to that Bumgarner's miles and obvious signs of decline - contrasted against the reasons for optimism for the Brewers up and coming arms - and I don't think its a given that MadBum's 2019 stats look any better among Milwaukee's pitchers if we're having this debate in 2020.

If the argument is that MadBum will go Lester or Verlander, his fastball speed will come back up and he'll stop walking people (only Junior Guerra had a worse WHIP than MadBum among Mil's qualifying starters) sure, I'd love to hear the reasons for that optimism. I actually want the Brewers to add a quality starter, and MadBum does seem like one of the best available.  But quality wise, that also isn't saying much, and the rationale for the trade can't just be that he was unreal for 50 IP in 2014 playoffs and great for another 14 playoff innings in 2016. Hell, MadBum's second half was notably worse than his first half last year.  For me this has very little to do with being worried about seeing Corey Ray play for the Brewers. Its got much more to do with hamstringing future trade and financial flexibility. From my selfish fan perspective, pitchers will shake loose in the next 6-7 months that I as a fan am more excited about than MadBum, and I want Stearns to have the resources to make that move when it arises.

MUBurrow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #422 on: January 11, 2019, 10:29:15 AM »
I think that the problem with filling the 2B hole is not wanting to commit to more than one year on a deal with anyone simply because Hiura and Dubon are waiting in the wings.

I'm guessing one or both to get on the big club and to hold down the position as the primary starter by year's end.

As a follow up here, I think Stearns is intentionally broadcasting that the Brewers' are "aggressively pursuing" a 2B/3B since the Grandal deal, to create leverage. And I love it.  If I had to guess, "passive-aggressively pursuing" would be a better characterization.  Every other significant move the Brewers have made has been very quiet until it was announced, so its a bit out of character for this to be so public.

Jockey

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #423 on: January 11, 2019, 10:51:26 AM »
Grandal almost sent the Brewers to the WS last year.  He gets another shot at it this year.  I hope he succeeds.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yasmani-grandal-is-better-than-this/

Great informative article on Grandal including what a great defensive catcher he actually is.

DegenerateDish

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #424 on: January 11, 2019, 11:48:27 AM »
Yankees out on Machado.