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Author Topic: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season  (Read 23251 times)

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #425 on: January 11, 2019, 12:26:37 PM »
From my selfish fan perspective, pitchers will shake loose in the next 6-7 months that I as a fan am more excited about than MadBum, and I want Stearns to have the resources to make that move when it arises.

Ok.  Whatever you think.  An ERA under 4 is basically the same as 3.26.  Ok. 

If Bumgarner pitches 80 innings with a 3.49 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and a 1.25 WHIP in the first half next season, it will take a whole lot more than Corey Ray and Freddy Peralta to get him.  And those 21 other teams with better farm systems, well, some of them may be in the hunt and need a starter.  Then the Brewers end up with next year's Gio Gonzalez instead of Madison Bumgarner.  Who is the guy that is better that the Brewers will be able to get with a bottom third farm system?  They probably won't buy a bad contract like Greinke. 

Here are the pitchers that are going to be free agents next season.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/2019-20-mlb-free-agents.html
 
These are the best opportunities for that rental trade.  Who is better?  Will they be available?  I doubt guys like Sale, Verlander and Cole will be traded.  Archer?  Maybe, but he has never been even this obviously declining version of Bumgarner.  Good luck finding that guy.  And good luck competing with the farm system strength of teams like that Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers for those assets midseason.

Bumgarner is clearly the best pitcher likely to be available.

« Last Edit: January 11, 2019, 12:30:29 PM by buckchuckler »
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PTM

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #426 on: January 11, 2019, 02:06:21 PM »
buckchucker, just spewing straight facts.
TallTitan's bold prediction of Davante Gardner being drafted in 2014.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=27259.msg310060;topicseen#new

MUBurrow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #427 on: January 11, 2019, 06:17:55 PM »
I don't want to hijack the thread and ultimately this is all about prognostication that can't be proven for another 6 months, so I'll take fiver on this one after this:

Ok.  Whatever you think.  An ERA under 4 is basically the same as 3.26.  Ok. 
I concede ERA was the biggest gap of the other three stats you listed. But ERA also hides the most warts in MadBum's declining peripherals.  His ERA was okay last year, but his other numbers suggest his stuff isn't what it used to be, and most of his other stats are largely indistinguishable from the Brewers other starters.

If Bumgarner pitches 80 innings with a 3.49 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and a 1.25 WHIP in the first half next season, it will take a whole lot more than Corey Ray and Freddy Peralta to get him. 
Is that true? There haven't been a lot of deadline deals for pitchers on expiring contracts lately, but here are two from 2018 with vaguely similar stats got dealt at this year's deadline:
J.A. Happ: 109 IP, 4.29 ERA, 9.99 K/9, 1.19 WHIP. The return was Brandon Drury and a prospect that was 25th in the Feb 2018 Yankees system rankings.
Cole Hamels: 109 IP, 4.36 ERA, 8.97 K/9 and 1.34 WHIP.  The return was Eddie Butler, a disappointing 27 year old former top prospect with a 5.71 big league ERA and Rollie Lacy, who didn't rank in the Cubs top 30 prospects.

I'm not as unreasonable as you think I am - I acknowledge that the 3.49 ERA is a big drop from 4.29 and 4.36. But both Happ's and Hamels's first half xFIPs were better than Bumgarner's 2018 xFIP, so the gap isn't as big as it looks. I also acknowledge that MadBum's playoff history would fetch a higher price than Happ or Hamels at similar stats. But I don't think those bumps warrant a jump up to Peralta and Ray.

Here are the pitchers that are going to be free agents next season.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/2019-20-mlb-free-agents.html

Bumgarner is clearly the best pitcher likely to be available.
If Stras is having a good year, I think he declines his option - its worth $100M over 4 and Corbin is the same age and just signed a 6 yr $140M deal.  Of the others, Alex Wood and Zack Wheeler both had better 2018s than MadBum. And that's assuming pitchers from Phi, Hou, ChC, Cle, LAD and StL are all unavailable.

This debate for me isn't whether 2011-2016 MadBum is worth Peralta and Ray. He is, #donedeal. Its about whether 2017-2018 MadBum is worth Peralta and Ray (for me, he isn't) and if not, whether you think 2011-2016 MadBum is sufficiently likely to return to spend a big remaining chunk of your trade capital (I'm pessimistic).

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #428 on: January 13, 2019, 11:24:31 PM »
I don't want to hijack the thread and ultimately this is all about prognostication that can't be proven for another 6 months, so I'll take fiver on this one after this:
I concede ERA was the biggest gap of the other three stats you listed. But ERA also hides the most warts in MadBum's declining peripherals.  His ERA was okay last year, but his other numbers suggest his stuff isn't what it used to be, and most of his other stats are largely indistinguishable from the Brewers other starters.
Is that true? There haven't been a lot of deadline deals for pitchers on expiring contracts lately, but here are two from 2018 with vaguely similar stats got dealt at this year's deadline:
J.A. Happ: 109 IP, 4.29 ERA, 9.99 K/9, 1.19 WHIP. The return was Brandon Drury and a prospect that was 25th in the Feb 2018 Yankees system rankings.
Cole Hamels: 109 IP, 4.36 ERA, 8.97 K/9 and 1.34 WHIP.  The return was Eddie Butler, a disappointing 27 year old former top prospect with a 5.71 big league ERA and Rollie Lacy, who didn't rank in the Cubs top 30 prospects.

I'm not as unreasonable as you think I am - I acknowledge that the 3.49 ERA is a big drop from 4.29 and 4.36. But both Happ's and Hamels's first half xFIPs were better than Bumgarner's 2018 xFIP, so the gap isn't as big as it looks. I also acknowledge that MadBum's playoff history would fetch a higher price than Happ or Hamels at similar stats. But I don't think those bumps warrant a jump up to Peralta and Ray.
If Stras is having a good year, I think he declines his option - its worth $100M over 4 and Corbin is the same age and just signed a 6 yr $140M deal.  Of the others, Alex Wood and Zack Wheeler both had better 2018s than MadBum. And that's assuming pitchers from Phi, Hou, ChC, Cle, LAD and StL are all unavailable.

This debate for me isn't whether 2011-2016 MadBum is worth Peralta and Ray. He is, #donedeal. Its about whether 2017-2018 MadBum is worth Peralta and Ray (for me, he isn't) and if not, whether you think 2011-2016 MadBum is sufficiently likely to return to spend a big remaining chunk of your trade capital (I'm pessimistic).

Ok, that is fine, and completely fair, but probably doesn't make him any more likely to be traded.  Even if the Nats are terrible.  Then his trade would be more complicated because of the option looming.  I think him being moved is incredibly unlikely. 

Do you think either of those guys are better?  If Wheeler is available it is because the Mets didn't play well, which probably means their pitching failed.  That may make Wheeler less attractive. 

Wood will likely be available.  I'd rather have Bumgarner.  Isn't very close, actually.  Wood is fine.  You know how many games he started in his team's run to the WS last year?  Not a single one. 

Yeah, not much traded for Cole Hamels.  His ERA was 4.76 and his WHIP was 1.37 at the time of the trade, and he is 4 years older.  They were trading for him hoping he found some magic of being in a pennant chase.  He did.

JA Happ netted the Jays at least a decent MLB player, but JA Happ is not Bumgarner.

But it doesn't matter.  Sounds like it isn't a thing anyways.

The real reason I wanted to post, is that there seems to be quite a lot of optimism that the Sox could have a pretty good 3B pretty soon.   
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MUDish

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #429 on: January 13, 2019, 11:26:41 PM »
I believe by the end of the week, Manny Machado will sign with the Sox.
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buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #430 on: January 13, 2019, 11:32:58 PM »
I believe by the end of the week, Manny Machado will sign with the Sox.

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MUDish

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #431 on: January 13, 2019, 11:57:44 PM »
Based on what I’ve put together, I would be more surprised if he signed elsewhere at this point. Nothing is #donedeal until pen to paper, but there is a ton of smoke starting to burn on this one. I do know for certain that the Sox hope and preference is that whatever happens, happens this week.
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MUBurrow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #432 on: January 14, 2019, 09:13:45 AM »
I wonder if Arenado is hurting Machado's market at all.  I've seen him linked to the Yankees (can't remember where) and it seems teams might be saying "well, make a lower offer to Machado, and if we don't get him and still really need a 3B next year, we can break the bank for Arenado."  I could see NYY, Atl, StL, one or both LA teams (LAA would need to have a plan for adding to the team and resigning Trout) being in on Arenado. 

If I had to guess, whether its 7 or 8 yrs, Machado's best offer in hand is from the Sox, but he's not excited about it, so Boras is advertising it to try to get another team to swoop in.

MUDish

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #433 on: January 14, 2019, 09:54:57 AM »
I wonder if Arenado is hurting Machado's market at all.  I've seen him linked to the Yankees (can't remember where) and it seems teams might be saying "well, make a lower offer to Machado, and if we don't get him and still really need a 3B next year, we can break the bank for Arenado."  I could see NYY, Atl, StL, one or both LA teams (LAA would need to have a plan for adding to the team and resigning Trout) being in on Arenado. 

If I had to guess, whether its 7 or 8 yrs, Machado's best offer in hand is from the Sox, but he's not excited about it, so Boras is advertising it to try to get another team to swoop in.

Boras is not Machado’s agent.
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MUBurrow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #434 on: January 14, 2019, 10:04:25 AM »
Boras is not Machado’s agent.

Doh! My bad. I see Machado is with Lozano. Probably had Boras in my brain from all the Harper updates.

MUBurrow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #435 on: January 15, 2019, 12:01:17 PM »
Grandal's presser today sounded a lot like what press conferences a couple of years before work stoppages sound like :/

Two years into the competitive balance tax era, and from the players' perspective, its not working. The soft cap has been suppressing spending without guaranteeing the players a percentage of revenues. Tough to see that structure getting extended.

CTWarrior

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #436 on: January 15, 2019, 01:06:24 PM »
Grandal's presser today sounded a lot like what press conferences a couple of years before work stoppages sound like :/

Two years into the competitive balance tax era, and from the players' perspective, its not working. The soft cap has been suppressing spending without guaranteeing the players a percentage of revenues. Tough to see that structure getting extended.
Not sure if it is the soft cap or that history says that these long term contracts for big money generally work against the team.  Probably a little of both.  The Red Sox (for the first time in the FA era, I believe), had the highest payroll this year, but only paid $12M in luxury tax, which John Henry probably found in his couch cushions. 

I think the math of these contracts generally work against the players, because they have their most value in their younger years when their salary is artificially reduced.  Not sure what the process for rectifying this issue is. 

Machado and Harper are younger than the usual FA, so I would think they would be more immune to that kind of thinking.  Even so, I'd rather have either of them for 4 years at $160M than 10 years at $300M.  Essentially more per annum for less years, whatever the numbers work out to be.  If, in four years, I'm angry that I made that deal, I would likely have gotten some great seasons for the money.
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Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #437 on: January 15, 2019, 01:35:27 PM »
Not sure if it is the soft cap or that history says that these long term contracts for big money generally work against the team.  Probably a little of both.  The Red Sox (for the first time in the FA era, I believe), had the highest payroll this year, but only paid $12M in luxury tax, which John Henry probably found in his couch cushions. 

I think the math of these contracts generally work against the players, because they have their most value in their younger years when their salary is artificially reduced.  Not sure what the process for rectifying this issue is. 

Machado and Harper are younger than the usual FA, so I would think they would be more immune to that kind of thinking.  Even so, I'd rather have either of them for 4 years at $160M than 10 years at $300M.  Essentially more per annum for less years, whatever the numbers work out to be.  If, in four years, I'm angry that I made that deal, I would likely have gotten some great seasons for the money.


Everyone is mentioning the word "collusion."  And while that may be happening to some extent, I think you hit the nail on the head.  Owners don't want to pay the back end of these large contracts when they can get good value from younger players at a much cheaper rate.  Why would Attannacio shell out $$$ over a long time for a big name free agent when he was one game away from the WS last year? 

The only way to rectify the issue is by adjusting the collective bargaining agreement to give players access to free agency earlier.  But that's not going to happen without a strike, and as with all sports these days, the owners are in a much better bargaining possession.

Pakuni

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #438 on: January 15, 2019, 02:13:15 PM »
Remember John Wettland?
Another member of the late 90s Yankees dynasty accused of being a kid-diddler.


https://www.star-telegram.com/news/state/texas/article224564670.html

MU82

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #439 on: January 15, 2019, 10:22:20 PM »
Collusion because an OK catcher was able to get only $18 million?

How is he supposed to feed Latrell Sprewell's family on that?
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buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #440 on: January 15, 2019, 10:42:56 PM »
Collusion because an OK catcher was able to get only $18 million?

How is he supposed to feed Latrell Sprewell's family on that?

He also reportedly turned down a 4/60 offer from the Mets.
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GB Warrior

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #441 on: January 15, 2019, 11:22:37 PM »
Collusion because an OK catcher was able to get only $18 million?

How is he supposed to feed Latrell Sprewell's family on that?

No one is questioning whether he has enough to live with. But when you look at what catchers rated similarly, and then look across the MLB landscape, there's no doubt that there is a recalibration. I don't know if it's collusion or teams leaning on analytics or the existence of the softcap, but Yasmani is worth a lot more.

Would we be saying the same thing if Rodgers had somehow gotten less than Cousins? That's what's happening.
Nobody says "It's only a game" when their team is winning.

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #442 on: January 15, 2019, 11:32:50 PM »
No one is questioning whether he has enough to live with. But when you look at what catchers rated similarly, and then look across the MLB landscape, there's no doubt that there is a recalibration. I don't know if it's collusion or teams leaning on analytics or the existence of the softcap, but Yasmani is worth a lot more.

Would we be saying the same thing if Rodgers had somehow gotten less than Cousins? That's what's happening.

He made a bad decision and passed on his best and most aggressive suitor.  They called his bluff and moved to the next guy.
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MU82

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #443 on: January 15, 2019, 11:33:44 PM »
No one is questioning whether he has enough to live with. But when you look at what catchers rated similarly, and then look across the MLB landscape, there's no doubt that there is a recalibration. I don't know if it's collusion or teams leaning on analytics or the existence of the softcap, but Yasmani is worth a lot more.

Would we be saying the same thing if Rodgers had somehow gotten less than Cousins? That's what's happening.

I'll defer to you. I haven't followed the landscape closely enough.

I have seen Grindal plenty. Not a great player is being generous. $18M+. Seems not very collosion-y to me. In 1987, arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball (Jack Morris) couldn't get a contract offer from anybody. THAT was collusion!

Oh, and I'm not arguing with you, GBW. Just not seeing a ton of evidence. Maybe I need to update my definition of collusion; that's certainly possible.
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GB Warrior

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #444 on: January 15, 2019, 11:42:44 PM »
I'll defer to you. I haven't followed the landscape closely enough.

I have seen Grindal plenty. Not a great player is being generous. $18M+. Seems not very collosion-y to me. In 1987, arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball (Jack Morris) couldn't get a contract offer from anybody. THAT was collusion!

Oh, and I'm not arguing with you, GBW. Just not seeing a ton of evidence. Maybe I need to update my definition of collusion; that's certainly possible.

And I'm not saying it's collision in the traditional sense. But there is a confluence of things working against the players, and they'll all be the center of the next CBA
Nobody says "It's only a game" when their team is winning.

MU82

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #445 on: January 15, 2019, 11:53:54 PM »
And I'm not saying it's collision in the traditional sense. But there is a confluence of things working against the players, and they'll all be the center of the next CBA

Maybe the owners are just getting better at colluding!
Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did, and it never will.

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Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #446 on: January 16, 2019, 08:28:25 AM »
I don't understand the reasons at this point in time why the owners would collude.  Why now and not 10-15 years ago? I just think baseball people are getting smarter about not paying a huge amount for players that give you marginal increases in productivity. Why pay what could likely be 3-4 years for an overpriced Machado or Harper, when you could have cheaper options that are just as good down the line?

MUBurrow

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #447 on: January 16, 2019, 09:22:51 AM »
I don't know if it's collusion or teams leaning on analytics or the existence of the softcap, but Yasmani is worth a lot more.

This. To the extent there's anything nefarious going on, its the suspicion that analytics and the softcap are both being used as fronts to excuse the shift of a greater proportion of earnings to the owners and away from the players. IIRC, player payrolls used to be about 60% of revenue around the year 2000, but have since dropped below 50%.  I think Tony Clark looked at baseball's spending history, and agreed to a soft cap assuming the owners would actually treat it as a soft cap - and its going to cost him his job.

RushmoreAcademy

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #448 on: January 16, 2019, 09:35:50 AM »
Remember John Wettland?
Another member of the late 90s Yankees dynasty accused of being a kid-diddler.


https://www.star-telegram.com/news/state/texas/article224564670.html

This is horrific.  What a scumbag.

ZaLiN

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Re: MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season
« Reply #449 on: January 16, 2019, 01:40:50 PM »
And I'm not saying it's collision in the traditional sense. But there is a confluence of things working against the players, and they'll all be the center of the next CBA

No collusion!