MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season

[cheebs09]

Mussina, I struggle with this.  What did he average, 11 wins a year? Was he ever the best pitcher in baseball in any given year. 

Martinez.....why is it that guys don't make it for their entire eligibility until the last year....feels like sympathy vote.....four years ago got 27%.  Did his stats change in 4 years?  You either are or you aren't a HOFer, but now in 4 years his stats didn't change but he is a HOFer when 4 years ago he wasn't?

I'm not saying they don't deserve it, I'm just questioning what changed?  What make 3X the voters who said not for umpteen years, not say yes?  Feels like the sympathy award at this point.

.

Wins is a pretty awful metric to judge a pitcher by. I would concur though that him being a Hall of Famer is a bit surprising. I saw someone say he’d be a starter in the Hall of Very Good. I agree with that. He was very good no doubt, but not sure he was HOF good.

I think the case with Martinez is people were resistant to put a DH in the HOF.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Mussina, I struggle with this.  What did he average, 11 wins a year? Was he ever the best pitcher in baseball in any given year. 

Martinez.....why is it that guys don't make it for their entire eligibility until the last year....feels like sympathy vote.....four years ago got 27%.  Did his stats change in 4 years?  You either are or you aren't a HOFer, but now in 4 years his stats didn't change but he is a HOFer when 4 years ago he wasn't?

I'm not saying they don't deserve it, I'm just questioning what changed?  What make 3X the voters who said not for umpteen years, not say yes?  Feels like the sympathy award at this point.

Tom Haudricourt defends his votes:

Mike Mussina: The more I looked at Mussina, the more I understood he should get serious consideration for Cooperstown, especially when you consider he pitched his entire career in the rugged AL East. He went 270-153 with a 3.68 ERA, 57 complete games, 23 shutouts and 2,813 strikeouts in 3,562 innings. Mussina had staying power, going 20-9 with a 3.37 ERA in his final season in 2008. Forget the 300-win thing. No one is likely to get to that plateau again.

Edgar Martinez: After years of being denigrated for being merely a designated hitter – which, by the way, happens to be an established role in the AL – Martinez has finally received deserved traction. He batted .312 for his career with a .418 on-base percentage, 2,247 hits, 309 HRs, 1,262 RBI, .933 OPS and 147 OPS+. Martinez was one of the best pure hitters of his generation and it's time to get over the DH thing. Paul Molitor was a DH for half his career. If DHs don't count, eliminate that role.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Tom Haudricourt defends his votes:

Mike Mussina: The more I looked at Mussina, the more I understood he should get serious consideration for Cooperstown, especially when you consider he pitched his entire career in the rugged AL East. He went 270-153 with a 3.68 ERA, 57 complete games, 23 shutouts and 2,813 strikeouts in 3,562 innings. Mussina had staying power, going 20-9 with a 3.37 ERA in his final season in 2008. Forget the 300-win thing. No one is likely to get to that plateau again.

Edgar Martinez: After years of being denigrated for being merely a designated hitter – which, by the way, happens to be an established role in the AL – Martinez has finally received deserved traction. He batted .312 for his career with a .418 on-base percentage, 2,247 hits, 309 HRs, 1,262 RBI, .933 OPS and 147 OPS+. Martinez was one of the best pure hitters of his generation and it's time to get over the DH thing. Paul Molitor was a DH for half his career. If DHs don't count, eliminate that role.

Mike Mussina - Pitched in the AL East in the steroid error and still dominated.

[mikekinsellaMVP]

Martinez.....why is it that guys don't make it for their entire eligibility until the last year....feels like sympathy vote.....four years ago got 27%.  Did his stats change in 4 years?  You either are or you aren't a HOFer, but now in 4 years his stats didn't change but he is a HOFer when 4 years ago he wasn't?

I'm not saying they don't deserve it, I'm just questioning what changed?  What make 3X the voters who said not for umpteen years, not say yes?  Feels like the sympathy award at this point.

Let me put this out there: in his previous nine years on the ballot, every guy who ever finished ahead of Martinez in voting ended up in the Hall of Fame, save three (Bonds, Clemons, Schilling).  Same is true with Tim Raines, who was inducted in his 10th year of eligibility in 2017.  (He did finish behind Tommy John in his first two years.)

I don't think it's sympathy as much as the mechanics of a system with a fixed number of votes and an expiration date on eligibility.  (The DH debate also played a role for Edgar.)

[CTWarrior]

Mussina, I struggle with this.  What did he average, 11 wins a year? Was he ever the best pitcher in baseball in any given year. 

Martinez.....why is it that guys don't make it for their entire eligibility until the last year....feels like sympathy vote.....four years ago got 27%.  Did his stats change in 4 years?  You either are or you aren't a HOFer, but now in 4 years his stats didn't change but he is a HOFer when 4 years ago he wasn't?

I'm not saying they don't deserve it, I'm just questioning what changed?  What make 3X the voters who said not for umpteen years, not say yes?  Feels like the sympathy award at this point.

Mike Mussina averaged 15 wins a year over an 18 year career.  That's very good.  Halladay, by comparison, averaged 12.7 in 16 years.  I don't thinks wins are as poor of judge as people think, because to get them as a starter you've got to generally pitch well and eat up innings.  But they are dependent a lot on your teammates.   Mussina pitched 3563 innings with a 23% better than average ERA (123 ERA+).  That is excellent pitching over a long period of time.  He's a HOFer.  He's not in the bottom third of starters in the Hall, IMO.

Martinez was held back by being a DH.  I don't see how a specialist like Mariano can be voted in and not a specialist like Martinez.  After Baines got in (a travesty, btw-He is the first Hall of Famer without even one 5 WAR season and he doesn't even have a 4 WAR season), how could you keep Martinez out?

If I could have any of them at the start of their career for their whole career, I'd want them in this order
1. Halladay
2. Mussina
3. Martinez
4. Rivera

Rivera was the best ever closer, but I'll take 210 IP of great pitching over 70 IP of spectacular pitching.

I'd have voted for those four, plus Schilling, Walker, McGriff, Clemens and Bonds.

I'm starting to come around on the steroids guys, except for those who tested positive after testing was in place.  While the guys who took them were cheating, I think a huge percentage of players were taking them, and they were implicitly condoned by MLB.  The whole steroids thing is interesting.  In the 60s and 70s pretty much all players took greenies (amphetamines).  In Bouton’s book Ball Four, if I remember correctly, he said there were teams that just had them out in a bowl like m & m’s.  To me, taking steroids is no different ethically than that.  The problem with steroids is that they worked too well, and the best players using them basically broke the game.  If they only gave you a performance/energy bump like greenies did they’d probably all still be taking them today.

[JWags85]

Mussina, I struggle with this.  What did he average, 11 wins a year? Was he ever the best pitcher in baseball in any given year. 

Wins is a pretty awful metric to judge a pitcher by. I would concur though that him being a Hall of Famer is a bit surprising. I saw someone say he’d be a starter in the Hall of Very Good. I agree with that. He was very good no doubt, but not sure he was HOF good.

Almost 16 a year when looking at full MLB seasons.  7 time Gold Glover.  Pitched his entire career in a stacked AL East.  Top 5 in the Cy Young 8 diff times and those years they were mostly won by Clemens or Pedro Martinez who are legends.

Ive got no love for Yankees, but in his prime he was a BEAST and he was a top 10 pitcher for a decade in a time where Pedro, Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and Randy Johnson were all clogging awards lists.

[Jockey]

Almost 16 a year when looking at full MLB seasons.  7 time Gold Glover.  Pitched his entire career in a stacked AL East.  Top 5 in the Cy Young 8 diff times and those years they were mostly won by Clemens or Pedro Martinez who are legends.

Ive got no love for Yankees, but in his prime he was a BEAST and he was a top 10 pitcher for a decade in a time where Pedro, Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and Randy Johnson were all clogging awards lists.

He deserved this.

[buckchuckler]

He deserved this.

Completely.  He may not have ever been the best pitcher in his league (Pedro, Clemens) but he was damn good for a really long time.  He was probably top 5 for a decade.  He had 117 more W's than losses in a time where they mattered.  He averaged 6 2/3 IP per start for 18 years.  No one may ever reach his win total.  He was 6th or better in Cy Young voting 9 times.  That's right Ed Rooney, 9 times. 

Completely deserved.

[Jockey]

Anyone else think it's a joke that Mariano is the 1st guy elected unanimously to the HOF?

Ruth, Gehrig, Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Williams, Musial, Hornsby, Honus Wagner and a dozen others weren't good enough for that honor but Mariano is?

Embarrassing.

[CTWarrior]

Anyone else think it's a joke that Mariano is the 1st guy elected unanimously to the HOF?

Ruth, Gehrig, Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Williams, Musial, Hornsby, Honus Wagner and a dozen others weren't good enough for that honor but Mariano is?

Embarrassing.

Yes, I don't think he (because of his role) was even the most deserving guy on this ballot.  If I could have him or Mussina (the guy who barely made after several years on the ballot) at the start of their career and keep them for their whole career, I'd take Mussina.  But it was getting to be a big deal that there wasn't a unanimous guy.  Maybe now the voters won't be so scrutinized and feel more free to vote for the guys that they want.  I think Maddux would have been a good choice to be the first since it is only recently that people have been getting very close, but I think because there were so many deserving guys his year a couple guys gamed the ballot to vote for guys they figured needed the support.

[buckchuckler]

Anyone else think it's a joke that Mariano is the 1st guy elected unanimously to the HOF?

Ruth, Gehrig, Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Williams, Musial, Hornsby, Honus Wagner and a dozen others weren't good enough for that honor but Mariano is?

Embarrassing.

Completely.  Not that Mariano didn't deserve it, he did.  But the fact that he was the first shows a lot of arrogance, ignorance or just stupidity on the body of voters.  Guys that didn't vote for Griffey Jr., or Maddux or Perdo, (those are just the most recent ones) should have their voting privileges revoked.

Hopefully this breaks down the mentality or whatever nonsense that caused this to happen in the past. 

[Cheeks]

Almost 16 a year when looking at full MLB seasons.  7 time Gold Glover.  Pitched his entire career in a stacked AL East.  Top 5 in the Cy Young 8 diff times and those years they were mostly won by Clemens or Pedro Martinez who are legends.

Ive got no love for Yankees, but in his prime he was a BEAST and he was a top 10 pitcher for a decade in a time where Pedro, Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and Randy Johnson were all clogging awards lists.

Hall of the Very Good, but I get your argument.  I think others over the years are as deserving if not more.  Guys that played on crap teams, had no offensive support, etc.  Some guys played in pitcher friendly parks, etc.

On Martinez, why is it that voters stick to their guns and then cave with sympathy at the end?  It happens way too much. Either you have the numbers or you don't.  What changed in the last 4 years to go from not even 30% to 75%?  Did a trove of statistics get found in a precinct somewhere to add to his totals? No. 

What changed?

[Cheeks]

Completely.  Not that Mariano didn't deserve it, he did.  But the fact that he was the first shows a lot of arrogance, ignorance or just stupidity on the body of voters.  Guys that didn't vote for Griffey Jr., or Maddux or Perdo, (those are just the most recent ones) should have their voting privileges revoked.

Hopefully this breaks down the mentality or whatever nonsense that caused this to happen in the past.

Careful, there is a voter in our midst

[buckchuckler]

Hall of the Very Good, but I get your argument.  I think others over the years are as deserving if not more.  Guys that played on crap teams, had no offensive support, etc.  Some guys played in pitcher friendly parks, etc.

On Martinez, why is it that voters stick to their guns and then cave with sympathy at the end?  It happens way too much. Either you have the numbers or you don't.  What changed in the last 4 years to go from not even 30% to 75%?  Did a trove of statistics get found in a precinct somewhere to add to his totals? No. 

What changed?

The MLB HOF is the most exclusive of all of them, with less than 1% of players being enshrined, and it has actually gotten more difficult through the years to get in.  I think there are more players that should be getting in.  Mussina was one of the very best pitchers of his era.  He isn't Freddy Garcia, AJ Burnett or Josh Beckett.

Pitching in the era he did, in the league he did, in the parks he did, he is very deserving, at least in my opinion.

[Cheeks]

The MLB HOF is the most exclusive of all of them, with less than 1% of players being enshrined, and it has actually gotten more difficult through the years to get in.  I think there are more players that should be getting in.  Mussina was one of the very best pitchers of his era.  He isn't Freddy Garcia, AJ Burnett or Josh Beckett.

Pitching in the era he did, in the league he did, in the parks he did, he is very deserving, at least in my opinion.

Fair points.  He was very good, I just had him a tick below, but definitely get it.

[buckchuckler]

Careful, there is a voter in our midst

No offense intended, unless he didn't vote for Griffey or Maddux.

I would guess he thinks there are guys that should have gotten 100% before.  But its only a guess.

[buckchuckler]

Joc Pederson to the Sox rumblings starting up.

Lots of smoke.  Not sure this is a move that makes any sense on its own.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I know WAR isn't the greatest stat, but Mussina is #23 on the career WAR for pitchers.  The only person ahead of him who isn't in the HOF is Clemens.  Pitchers like Tom Glavine, Bob Gibson and Fergie Jenkins (and many others) are behind him.

[WarriorDad]

Mussina yes
Rivera yes yes yes
Halladay yes (would he have made it on this ballot if he hadn't tragically passed?)
Martinez no  (in the DH HOF yes, not in the baseball hall of fame)


Remaining Snubs

Schilling.  If you believe in Wins Above Replacement, he gets in.  Enough voters dislike his politics, that hurts him
Larry Walker.  Playing in Coors Field hurts him with voters.  3 batting titles, 7 gold gloves, MVP

Sheffield?  Whittaker?  Rolen? 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The DH is a legitimate position in baseball and as such Martinez deserves to be in.

[CTWarrior]

The DH is a legitimate position in baseball and as such Martinez deserves to be in.

As a DH, Martinez can get 600 plate appearances a year.  Rivera faces half that many batters in a normal year.  Rivera sure isn't helping the offense.  Martinez is moving the dial on your won-lost record more than Mariano Rivera is.  I do not see the logic where you can take a relief pitcher but not a DH.  (And Edgar OWNED Mariano - 11 for 19 w/3 2B and 2 HR).

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Yes. And relievers have been elected to the Hall since Hoyt Wilhelm in the mid-80s. Now it's not even a question.

[buckchuckler]

Mussina yes
Rivera yes yes yes
Halladay yes (would he have made it on this ballot if he hadn't tragically passed?)
Martinez no  (in the DH HOF yes, not in the baseball hall of fame)


Remaining Snubs

Schilling.  If you believe in Wins Above Replacement, he gets in.  Enough voters dislike his politics, that hurts him
Larry Walker.  Playing in Coors Field hurts him with voters.  3 batting titles, 7 gold gloves, MVP

Sheffield?  Whittaker?  Rolen?

I think Walker and Helton should both get in. 

.278/.370/.495 -- .865 OPS.  That is Larry Walker's slash line -- on the road. 

Ryne Sandberg's career OPS is .795.  Jim Rice's was .854.  Andre Dawson's was .806.  Tony Gwynn's is .847.  Paul Molitor's was .817.

I know these aren't perfect comparisons.  And I realize it is just one category I am using (for simplicity), but I think it shows he was a great hitter.  And he wasn't just a hitter.  He won 7 Gold Gloves. 

Yeah, he played in Denver.  But that shouldn't disqualify him from the Hall of Fame.  His home numbers are bonkers.  His overall numbers are worthy.  His road numbers are better than overall numbers for many guys already in the Hall.  Every guy has a drop off on the road.  Walker would hit no matter where he would have played.  He hit with Montreal, he hit with St. Louis. 

His OPS+ (which is normalized for ball park) is 141, basically saying he was 41 % better than an average player. 

Helton has a similar case with a slash line of .287/.386/.469 (.855 OPS) on the road.

In 600 ABs, he would have averaged 22 HRS on the road.  He would have averaged 88 BB per 650 PA on the road.  41 doubles per 600 ABs on the road. 

Did he benefit from Coors.  Sure.  But he hit like a monster on the road.

This is just their road numbers.  Their home numbers can't just be ignored either.  Just about every guy hits better at home than on the road.  But their road numbers are ridiculous.  Also something that should be factored in is them playing at altitude.  The strain and wear due to that should be considered as well.  But even if you don't consider that, their numbers, even just on the road, are better than many guys in the HOF.

Are the numbers of guys that play in Camden discounted?  Arizona?  New Yankee stadium?

[Jockey]

No offense intended, unless he didn't vote for Griffey or Maddux.

I would guess he thinks there are guys that should have gotten 100% before.  But its only a guess.

MU 82 used to be a voter - not any longer. That’s why you’ll see new address questions to him occasionally.

[buckchuckler]

MU 82 used to be a voter - not any longer. That’s why you’ll see new address questions to him occasionally.

Yeah I was aware, and I didn't mean to impugn the honor of 82.  There does seem to be a swath of HOF voters that don't take their votes seriously.  They shouldn't get the right to vote.  From our conversations, 82 doesn't seem to be that type. 

I just don't see what sense there could ever be in not voting for certain guys.