MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season

[DegenerateDish]

Lots of meatball takes on the Olney report that the Sox offered Machado 7/$175.

If that is indeed their offer, it's been on the table for weeks. Secondly, it's their first offer, why would or should they keep bidding against themselves? What other team (with the knowledge of what $ amount Machado has offered from the Sox) has come in and blown that away? It's literally been WEEKS since the initial offer was made. Hell, the Yankees made a proactive decision to go sign LeMahieu after knowing what the market was for Machado.

Tons of posturing coming out the last couple of days because the Sox offer currently and has been the best offer. The Sox know this too, none of the info coming out is coming from them, they have held their ground because they don't need to counteroffer (yet) because no one has beaten their offer.

The collusion stuff and is Manny worth more are another topic, but the amount of meatball takes out there are ridiculous.

[Pakuni]

Lots of meatball takes on the Olney report that the Sox offered Machado 7/$175.

If that is indeed their offer, it's been on the table for weeks. Secondly, it's their first offer, why would or should they keep bidding against themselves? What other team (with the knowledge of what $ amount Machado has offered from the Sox) has come in and blown that away? It's literally been WEEKS since the initial offer was made. Hell, the Yankees made a proactive decision to go sign LeMahieu after knowing what the market was for Machado.

Tons of posturing coming out the last couple of days because the Sox offer currently and has been the best offer. The Sox know this too, none of the info coming out is coming from them, they have held their ground because they don't need to counteroffer (yet) because no one has beaten their offer.

The collusion stuff and is Manny worth more are another topic, but the amount of meatball takes out there are ridiculous.

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Current offers for Machado not known. But Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, issued a statement saying reports of a seven-year, $175M offer by the #WhiteSox to Machado are inaccurate.

[DegenerateDish]

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Current offers for Machado not known. But Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, issued a statement saying reports of a seven-year, $175M offer by the #WhiteSox to Machado are inaccurate.

Lozano’s press release basically rolled the bus over Olney and Nightengale. Not a good look at all for those two guys.

[WarriorDad]

Harper lands where?

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Harper lands where?

My guess is the Phillies.  (And Machado with the White Sox).

[jficke13]

Lozano’s press release basically rolled the bus over Olney and Nightengale. Not a good look at all for those two guys.

But just as reporters can say "sources tell me" so too can the agent say "reporters are wrong" using precisely the same level of demonstrated facts. Lozano could have a 7/$175M offer (or maybe the deal is 8/$201M w/ year 8 an option, making both technically correct) in hand and still throw the reporters under the bus with no repercussions. He'll have info that Olney and co will want that he wants to leak on the next deal and the deal after that.

Olney and other reporters are useful to agents/owners, and vice versa. Everyone will be fine (except maybe Machado who will be forced to play for below market value somewhere, I guess he's sorta hurt by this).

[MUBurrow]

Lozano’s press release basically rolled the bus over Olney and Nightengale. Not a good look at all for those two guys.

See I read this differently. I think Lozano has only had the $175/7 offer in hand for Machado this entire time.  He "leaked" that report of an 8 year offer to try to get the ChiSox up to 8, to try to drum up interest beyond what Chicago was offering, or both.  After a day or two of putting in the time and getting in touch with Chicago's front office, everyone caught up to Lozano's posturing and now he's the one that looks full of crap.

[Pakuni]

See I read this differently. I think Lozano has only had the $175/7 offer in hand for Machado this entire time.  He "leaked" that report of an 8 year offer to try to get the ChiSox up to 8, to try to drum up interest beyond what Chicago was offering, or both.  After a day or two of putting in the time and getting in touch with Chicago's front office, everyone caught up to Lozano's posturing and now he's the one that looks full of crap.

Lozano says the reports about 7/$175 million are "completely wrong" and that Olney's and Nightengale's sources are "intentionally misleading" them or "flat out lying."
Doesn't seem to be much wiggle room there. I don't think he can honestly make that statement if there is indeed a 7/$175 million offer in hand. So, either he's lying or Olney/Nightengale are wrong. There's no other way to read it, that I can see.

Also, how would leaking that the White sox made an 8-year offer prod the Sox to make an 8-year offer?

[DegenerateDish]

Jficke and Burrow make good points. I don't get a ton of info from my Sox front office friends, I'll see them next week at SoxFest, but I asked what the temp on Machado was right now. From what I can gather, and what I had mentioned earlier this week is that there were full expectations from Machado's camp that this was going to be the week that a decision was going to be made. The Sox have strongly believed their offer is the best out there. I have no idea what their offer is, but for some context, if it was $175/7, that would make Machado the 4th highest paid AAV for a position player, so it's not ridiculously low as some indicated, and again, it was their opening offer.

I certainly don't blame Lozano in the least for getting every last dollar for his client, and if the Phils/Yankees came in with $30 mil a year, he should take it if it's the best offer. I don't know who put the info out there yesterday, it obviously wasn't the Sox. If Lozano leaked it, doesn't it on the surface make him look desperate at this point? It seems rare for an agent to come out with the statement then there after. I mean he could certainly have orchestrated the entire thing from the leak to the statement, but down the road in negotiations it's certainly going to limit him from negotiating with certain owners. I'm sure Reinsdorf is pissed, as he personally has been involved in these negotiations. I'm all for posturing to get every dollar one can on the open market, but this has certainly turned into an odd dance for all parties involved.

[MUBurrow]

I had read the 8 year leak to be a false flag from Lozano. I remembered that report not being team specific - but looking back it seems most reports linked it to Chicago. Either way, I thought it was information that Lozano floated and then could take to another team. Even if the report said it was CWS, if Chicago's front office knew it wasn't them, Lozano could say "meh, reports have the team wrong but the numbers are pretty much right" and then CWS would be bidding against themselves.  I'll grant that this theory would is not exactly Occam's Razor.

The part I'm most confused about from Lozano's press release - the assumption is that Lozano is trying to get everyone to believe the offer he has is better than $175/7, yes? What incentive would Olney or Nightengale's sources have to lie to say its lower? Wouldn't undercutting your offer in the press actually increase the likelihood other teams get involved?

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Cubs could've used Ottavino. 

[Pakuni]

The part I'm most confused about from Lozano's press release - the assumption is that Lozano is trying to get everyone to believe the offer he has is better than $175/7, yes? What incentive would Olney or Nightengale's sources have to lie to say its lower? Wouldn't undercutting your offer in the press actually increase the likelihood other teams get involved?

Some completely wild speculation:
1. Some other/rival club thinks the Sox are going to get steal on Machado and want to encourage other teams to get involved in the bidding.
2. Lozano is knowingly leaking a bogus offer to get other teams involved in the bidding.
3. The agent of a similarly situated player is looking to drive up the market for all-star corner infielders, making his client more valuable in 2020 (see: Arenado, Nolan; Donaldson, Josh).

[MU82]

Agents are notorious "exaggerators" (I'll be nice and not call them liars) in these kinds of situations.

Their job is to get the best deal for their clients, and they'll do whatever they can as long as it's legal (and sometimes even if it's not).

[buckchuckler]

Cubs (Insert MLB team) could've used Ottavino.

I think that works.

The Yankees have built themselves a great bullpen again it seems. 

I am amazed at the lack of movement from last years playoff teams.  The Braves added a 3B on a pillow contract, the Brewers added Grandal, the Cubs have added no one, the Rockies have only lost guys, the Dodgers have only lost guys, the Red Sox have only lost guys, the Astros have lost a couple key pitchers, but did add a very good,though injury prone hitter.

The best move of the offseason, at least on paper is clearly the Cardinals and Goldy, other than that it looks like that Yanks, Nats and Reds have improved the most.  It has been a weird offseason indeed.

[Cheeks]

Evan Longoria's comments today, didn't exactly get a warm reception on Instagram by many.

"We are less then a month from the start of spring and once again some of our games biggest starts remain unsigned. Such a shame. It’s seems every day now someone is making up a new analytical tool to devalue players, especially free agents. As fans, why should “value” for your team even be a consideration? It’s not your money, it’s money that players have worked their whole lives to get to that level and be deserving of. Bottom line, fans should want the best players and product on the field for their team. And as players we need to stand strong for what we believe we are worth and continue to fight for the rights we have fought for time and time again."


It's not your money?  Hmm, I think Evan might want to understand how ticket prices, television sports rights fees, etc, are computed and how they hit the average Joe SixPack fan.  Not grounded in reality.  And isn't what anyone has earned over their entire lifetime a product of their hard work?  This screams out of touch.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BsyUZScney4/?utm_source=ig_embed

[WarriorDad]

Machado to Padres, the mystery team?

[MUBurrow]

Evan Longoria's comments today, didn't exactly get a warm reception on Instagram by many.
"We are less then a month from the start of spring and once again some of our games biggest starts remain unsigned. Such a shame. It’s seems every day now someone is making up a new analytical tool to devalue players, especially free agents. As fans, why should “value” for your team even be a consideration? It’s not your money, it’s money that players have worked their whole lives to get to that level and be deserving of. Bottom line, fans should want the best players and product on the field for their team. And as players we need to stand strong for what we believe we are worth and continue to fight for the rights we have fought for time and time again."

It's not your money?  Hmm, I think Evan might want to understand how ticket prices, television sports rights fees, etc, are computed and how they hit the average Joe SixPack fan.  Not grounded in reality.  And isn't what anyone has earned over their entire lifetime a product of their hard work?  This screams out of touch.

He didn't word it well. But to position his quote as Evan Longoria vs the fans without mentioning the owners is really disingenuous. 

Its clear he's talking about the suspicion that owners are using analytics as a straw man to cheap out on free agents.  He doesn't separate the two ideas well, but the bolded sentence is the real point.  "Value" is only important if you take it as a given that your owner is setting his spending limit to maximize his own return. Every team in the league "could afford" to sign Machado - the owners appealing to value through analytics is to distract from the fact that they've been shifting greater proportions of revenue from the players to the owners. Longoria's point is that the result is that owners are pointing to value while declining to put the best possible product on the field.

There are two important ways to look at MLB spending. One is MLB as a whole year over year and the other is team vs team within a given year.  The owners insistence on value and reliance on analytics would hold a lot more water if the players were getting the same pro-rata share of recent years' record revenues as they were of 90s and early 2000s revenues.  But they aren't.  When looking team vs team, value is real - if you're a GM, your owner will only spend what he'll spend, so you've got to use analytics to spend that money as intelligently as possible. But when looking at MLB averages year over year, analytics is used as an opportunity to shift earnings to the owners.  Using analytics to defend the owners retaining a greater percentage of revenue makes no sense. They are two different discussions.

[DegenerateDish]

Joc Pederson to the Sox rumblings starting up.

[Cheeks]

He didn't word it well. But to position his quote as Evan Longoria vs the fans without mentioning the owners is really disingenuous. 

Its clear he's talking about the suspicion that owners are using analytics as a straw man to cheap out on free agents.  He doesn't separate the two ideas well, but the bolded sentence is the real point.  "Value" is only important if you take it as a given that your owner is setting his spending limit to maximize his own return. Every team in the league "could afford" to sign Machado - the owners appealing to value through analytics is to distract from the fact that they've been shifting greater proportions of revenue from the players to the owners. Longoria's point is that the result is that owners are pointing to value while declining to put the best possible product on the field.

There are two important ways to look at MLB spending. One is MLB as a whole year over year and the other is team vs team within a given year.  The owners insistence on value and reliance on analytics would hold a lot more water if the players were getting the same pro-rata share of recent years' record revenues as they were of 90s and early 2000s revenues.  But they aren't.  When looking team vs team, value is real - if you're a GM, your owner will only spend what he'll spend, so you've got to use analytics to spend that money as intelligently as possible. But when looking at MLB averages year over year, analytics is used as an opportunity to shift earnings to the owners.  Using analytics to defend the owners retaining a greater percentage of revenue makes no sense. They are two different discussions.

I’m pretty sure I copied his entire post. The general take away by most of the readers was someone very out of touch.  You are right he didn’t write it well. He may have wanted an agent or someone to else to take a look at that before putting it out there.

[MUfan12]

AmFam Field?

[GB Warrior]

AmFam Field?

Maybe we'll trade for Russell Wilson's rights so that we beanball him in spring training

I hope that this means we can challenge the Brewers Logo and unis since we're no longer beholden to the Miller font. Bring back the ball & glove full time.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

AmFam Field?

Terrible.  Will be like the Sears Tower, everyone will still call it Miller Park.

And when Amfam is running at a 109 combined ratio, they might not make it 20 years.  (Spending $1.09 for every $1 of premium + investments)

[MUBurrow]

Asdrubal Cabrera was a personal favorite of mine in this market and just went to the Rangers on a 1 yr $3.5M deal. I hope that suggests there is an infield upgrade still in the wings for the Brewers, because I think if you just put Cabrera on the Brewers roster today, he gets more than 400 ABs this season.

[Jockey]

Asdrubal Cabrera was a personal favorite of mine in this market and just went to the Rangers on a 1 yr $3.5M deal. I hope that suggests there is an infield upgrade still in the wings for the Brewers, because I think if you just put Cabrera on the Brewers roster today, he gets more than 400 ABs this season.

Yeah. This is the kind of guy I thought Milwaukee would add to transition to Huira in 2020.

[Cheeks]

Mussina, I struggle with this.  What did he average, 11 wins a year? Was he ever the best pitcher in baseball in any given year. 

Martinez.....why is it that guys don't make it for their entire eligibility until the last year....feels like sympathy vote.....four years ago got 27%.  Did his stats change in 4 years?  You either are or you aren't a HOFer, but now in 4 years his stats didn't change but he is a HOFer when 4 years ago he wasn't?

I'm not saying they don't deserve it, I'm just questioning what changed?  What make 3X the voters who said not for umpteen years, not say yes?  Feels like the sympathy award at this point.