MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season

[buckchuckler]

I read it the other way, this is them signaling they’re out on Harper and giving them flexibility moving forward for another trade or signing someone like Pollock. Harper would still punish them well into the tax, a short term Pollock deal or trading for Kluber wouldn’t.

Machado also told all 3 teams today he won’t sign until after the new year. My Sox guy had heard that earlier this week, I had mentioned on here the week of Jan 7th would be likely, and appears to be the case.

I guess that could certainly be the case.  It just seems like everything is working out to get Bryce to the Dodgers, which seems to be what he wants, based on reports, but who knows what of that is true. 

Also, I bet if Matt Kemp were advising any guys in free agency, all he would say is "no trade clause"

[MUBurrow]

Also, I bet if Matt Kemp were advising any guys in free agency, all he would say is "no trade clause"

Word. He’s gonna weigh 350 lbs by the start of the season.

[GB Warrior]

Word. He’s gonna weigh 350 lbs by the start of the season.

That's a lot of Skyline Chili

[Pakuni]

That's a lot of Skyline Chili

Skyline Chili more likely would lead to weight loss.

[buckchuckler]

Skyline Chili more likely would lead to weight loss.

Hahahah!

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

Nuking the archives of two local news sites so their writers can’t recover their clippings to use to find new work isn’t political.

[dgies9156]

Look Cub fans. You too Brewer fans. St. Louis is FOR REAL.

The signing of Goldschmidt is a turning point in St. Louis. If Ozuma is healthy and Carpenter continues on his MVP path, this team could pass the Cubs and the Brewers. They have more pitching depth. Their hitting will be on par with either team. Their only weakness will be their defense. If that improves, they're a 95-102 win team next year.

I think Dexter Fowler is washed up (thanks a heap Chicago Cubs) but if he somehow hits .260 or better next year, God help the rest of the division.

That red bird closing fast in the Cubbie bear's rear window is a real threat. And he's pretty angry about the past three years.

[WarriorDad]

But hey, if the Chicago Cubs won't support him, maybe he can get a fresh start with the Schaumburg Cubs

I've said I want him gone, but your other statement about terrible people was over the top and unwarranted.

[GB Warrior]

I've said I want him gone, but your other statement about terrible people was over the top and unwarranted.

You're right and I'm sorry. A completely unfair generalization.

Laura Ricketts deserves better.

[buckchuckler]

Look Cub fans. You too Brewer fans. St. Louis is FOR REAL.

The signing of Goldschmidt is a turning point in St. Louis. If Ozuma is healthy and Carpenter continues on his MVP path, this team could pass the Cubs and the Brewers. They have more pitching depth. Their hitting will be on par with either team. Their only weakness will be their defense. If that improves, they're a 95-102 win team next year.

I think Dexter Fowler is washed up (thanks a heap Chicago Cubs) but if he somehow hits .260 or better next year, God help the rest of the division.

That red bird closing fast in the Cubbie bear's rear window is a real threat. And he's pretty angry about the past three years.

That stuff doesn't even need to happen.  The addition of Goldschmidt on its own is huge and instantly made the Central 3 team race, the addition of Miller, may make the Cards the favorite.  If Carpenter, Ozuna and Goldschmidt all put up average seasons for themselves, that is a dangerous team.  The question is where does Carpenter play?  3B?  Do they run Jose Martinez out in RF?  That would be an ugly defensive alignment. 

The NL will be really tough.  It looks like the East will have 4 pretty good teams, Mets, Nats, Phil and Braves should all be good.  The Central is better with the Cards making some strides, Brewers and Cubs, and the Reds should at least be better.  The west looks like Dodgers and Rockies.  I would think the west would have the inside track to one of the wild cards with the division, but who knows.

[MU82]

My son and I were talking about baseball this morning and Joe Mauer's name came up. I was laughing about all the "what a great player" pub he was getting now that he is retiring. I said he had a strong start to his career but after his MVP year of '09 got him the mega-contract, he became "little more than Mark Grace."

Then I looked up Mauer's stats ... and I owe Grace a huge apology.

Over his last 9 seasons -- and he had a 15-year career, so that's 60% of it -- Mauer averaged 8 HR and 58 RBI, and he had a .788 OPS. It was much worse than I had thought.

Not that it's his fault -- or even the Twins' fault, because they had little choice to pay him -- but one could make a pretty good argument that he was the most overpaid player in all of baseball during that stretch. Paid a run-producer's salary, but incapable of driving in runs for a team that sucked (in part because they paid so much to a mediocre ballplayer). He even stopped playing catcher, and his production was especially pathetic for a first baseman.

And yet this guy will get HoF votes. Probably won't get in ... until the old-timers committee says 20 years from now, "Well, Harold Baines is in, so we might as well put Mauer in, too."

Funny.

[Pakuni]

My son and I were talking about baseball this morning and Joe Mauer's name came up. I was laughing about all the "what a great player" pub he was getting now that he is retiring. I said he had a strong start to his career but after his MVP year of '09 got him the mega-contract, he became "little more than Mark Grace."

Then I looked up Mauer's stats ... and I owe Grace a huge apology.

Over his last 9 seasons -- and he had a 15-year career, so that's 60% of it -- Mauer averaged 8 HR and 58 RBI, and he had a .788 OPS. It was much worse than I had thought.

Not that it's his fault -- or even the Twins' fault, because they had little choice to pay him -- but one could make a pretty good argument that he was the most overpaid player in all of baseball during that stretch. Paid a run-producer's salary, but incapable of driving in runs for a team that sucked (in part because they paid so much to a mediocre ballplayer). He even stopped playing catcher, and his production was especially pathetic for a first baseman.

And yet this guy will get HoF votes. Probably won't get in ... until the old-timers committee says 20 years from now, "Well, Harold Baines is in, so we might as well put Mauer in, too."

Funny.

On the other hand, his 55.1 career WAR is better than the average career WAR of HOF catchers (53.5) and his 7-year peak WAR of 39.0 is better than that of HOF catchers' average (34.5).
Based on his position, he should be in the Hall of Fame.

[buckchuckler]

On the other hand, his 55.1 career WAR is better than the average career WAR of HOF catchers (53.5) and his 7-year peak WAR of 39.0 is better than that of HOF catchers' average (34.5).
Based on his position, he should be in the Hall of Fame.

Do you count him just as a C though?  He started 885 games as a C and 888 as a 1B or DH.

His first 9 years were entirely elite.  Especially at C.  That position just wears guys down.  When a guy that is a great hitting C gets moved to 1B, it is a different story as what passes at good offensive player.  I think the same thing is happening to Posey right now. 

I think he is an interesting case, he was the best C in the AL for a decade.  Guys like Molina that can catch everyday into their mid 30s are rare indeed.  At least in today's game.

[MU82]

On the other hand, his 55.1 career WAR is better than the average career WAR of HOF catchers (53.5) and his 7-year peak WAR of 39.0 is better than that of HOF catchers' average (34.5).
Based on his position, he should be in the Hall of Fame.

Less than half of his career was as a catcher. The entire second half of his career, he was a barely mediocre ballplayer.

I have nothing against Mauer personally. Seems like a nice gentleman. Just became almost a non-entity of a ballplayer starting in Year 7 of his 15-year career.

[WarriorDad]

Harper to the Cubs?  One MLB exec is saying that is how he would bet on it at the moment. 

[buckchuckler]

Harper to the Cubs?  One MLB exec is saying that is how he would bet on it at the moment.

Which one? 
How will he fit financially?
Are the Cubs moving Heyward?  How?  To whom?  Are they selling off other players to move Heyward?  In that case does it make the Cubs better?
Seems like people thing Boras would give them a sweetheart deal, but is their relationship good after the service time game with Bryant?  Didn't Bryant reject a contract extension without thinking about it?  Maybe that makes spending on Harper more likely, maybe it makes it more difficult. 

I don't doubt that Harper would like to play on the north side, but the Cubs seem to have more hurdles than most to clear to make room for him.  Unless all their budget constraints are being mis-reported.  Which could be. 

But there is this from MLBTR as well
"As per Roster Resource, the Cubs are currently on the hook for a payroll in excess of $220MM next season, which comes with a projected luxury tax price tag of just under $234.5MM (reminder: the luxury tax payroll carries some different calculations than solely the dollar figures on the MLB payroll).  This puts them in position to exceed the $206MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, and thus pay a tax penalty of 20% of every dollar on the overage.  This is the “first-timer” rate for any team that exceeds the threshold but stayed under the line in the previous season.  If the Cubs’ tax bill were to exceed the $246MM mark next season, they’d face a larger financial penalty as well as a ten-spot drop in the draft order for their highest selection in the 2019 amateur draft."

It could happen, but Heyward would seem to be a huge stumbling block.  If he somehow gets moved, then it is a completely different story.  But what if they needed to move Schwarber and Happ to move him?  Happ and Contreras?  It isn't like they have huge prospects to sweeten the deal.  Cano and his terrible contract got moved, but he has been a more productive hitter, and it took the best closer in baseball last year to get the deal done. 

Whether the Cubs are in on Harper or not, it is certainly in Boras and Harper's best interest that other teams think they are in on him.

[dgies9156]

My son and I were talking about baseball this morning and Joe Mauer's name came up. I was laughing about all the "what a great player" pub he was getting now that he is retiring. I said he had a strong start to his career but after his MVP year of '09 got him the mega-contract, he became "little more than Mark Grace."

Then I looked up Mauer's stats ... and I owe Grace a huge apology.

Over his last 9 seasons -- and he had a 15-year career, so that's 60% of it -- Mauer averaged 8 HR and 58 RBI, and he had a .788 OPS. It was much worse than I had thought.

Why do you think we Cardinal fans don't cry every morning about Albert Pujols' signing with California?

To his credit, he took the money offered him. California proved there was an idiot born every minute.

To our credit, our team took the money and did something else with it -- something that proved better and brought more championships.

The sad thing was that Pujols, had he stayed, would have been the next Stan Musial. In LA, he's a nobody!

[WI inferiority Complexes]

To our credit, our team took the money and did something else with it -- something that proved better and brought more championships.

The Cardinals won championships since Pujols left?

[Cheeks]

Why do you think we Cardinal fans don't cry every morning about Albert Pujols' signing with California?

To his credit, he took the money offered him. California proved there was an idiot born every minute.

To our credit, our team took the money and did something else with it -- something that proved better and brought more championships.

The sad thing was that Pujols, had he stayed, would have been the next Stan Musial. In LA, he's a nobody!

As an Angels fan I can assure you we overpaid, but we went for broke early on.  We did finish with the best record in baseball four years ago with him and Trout, but that was the year the Royals caught fire and tore through everyone in the AL.

I’m not aware of you winning any championships since he left, however.

[buckchuckler]

Why do you think we Cardinal fans don't cry every morning about Albert Pujols' signing with California?

To his credit, he took the money offered him. California proved there was an idiot born every minute.

To our credit, our team took the money and did something else with it -- something that proved better and brought more championships.

The sad thing was that Pujols, had he stayed, would have been the next Stan Musial. In LA, he's a nobody!

California?  Is it the 80s? 

Pujols has been far from the Angels only problem.  Their main problem has been pitching.  And while the money allocated to Pujols does hinder them in adding to the rotation, a never ending string of injuries to Garret Richards and Heaney has played a big role.   As has decisions to pay CJ Wilson TOR money, and Jered Weaver falling off the face of the Earth.  Additionally, in my opinion one of the biggest misses for the Angels was the complete disaster of a contract for Josh Hamilton.  I think that hamstrung them much more than the Pujols deal.  It also seems like that deal has made Moreno a little gun shy. 

[dgies9156]

I’m not aware of you winning any championships since he left, however.

My gosh, I am beginning to think like a Cub fan! I'm giving credit for divisional titles! 

C'mon Angels fans -- you badly overpaid for a superstar whose best days were behind him.

$240 million? I realize Mr. Moreno has money to burn but that was ridiculous even by standards of the idle rich.

The money the DeWitt family did not spend on Pujols probably was part of the pool that was used to acquire and hopefully sign to a long-term contract Paul Goldschmidt. The Cardinals have been slimming down compensation wise since Pujols left, sort of, and the fans have become a bit restless. With Goldschmidt, we'll be well-prepared to bring home that championship I fretted about earlier.

I'll agree that the Cardinals really didn't replace Pujols until they signed Goldschmidt.

[brewcity77]

My gosh, I am beginningThe money the DeWitt family did not spend on Pujols probably was part of the pool that was used to acquire and hopefully sign to a long-term contract Paul Goldschmidt.

I'm not saying it's the same situation, but Pujols did have a productive year at age 32 when he arrived in Anaheim before some injuries and a drop in production. Goldschmidt is 31, so a year younger than Pujols was when he made his move. Unless he's on the Barry Bonds workout regimen, the odds are his production will start to tail off in the next couple years. He's a great player who likely brings a big bat for a bit, but a long-term extension could put the Cards in a very similar situation to the one the Angels were in with Pujols.

[Cheeks]

California?  Is it the 80s? 

Pujols has been far from the Angels only problem.  Their main problem has been pitching.  And while the money allocated to Pujols does hinder them in adding to the rotation, a never ending string of injuries to Garret Richards and Heaney has played a big role.   As has decisions to pay CJ Wilson TOR money, and Jered Weaver falling off the face of the Earth.  Additionally, in my opinion one of the biggest misses for the Angels was the complete disaster of a contract for Josh Hamilton.  I think that hamstrung them much more than the Pujols deal.  It also seems like that deal has made Moreno a little gun shy.

We have had more Tommy John surgeries I believe than any other team the last four years. It has been ridiculous.  7 pitchers since 2014, most of them starting rotation.

Ohtani (#2 starter)
Richards (#1 starter)
Skaggs (starter)
Heaney (starter)
Tropeano (starter / reliever)

Middleton (reliever)
Ramirez (reliever)

[Cheeks]

My gosh, I am beginning to think like a Cub fan! I'm giving credit for divisional titles! 

C'mon Angels fans -- you badly overpaid for a superstar whose best days were behind him.

$240 million? I realize Mr. Moreno has money to burn but that was ridiculous even by standards of the idle rich.

The money the DeWitt family did not spend on Pujols probably was part of the pool that was used to acquire and hopefully sign to a long-term contract Paul Goldschmidt. The Cardinals have been slimming down compensation wise since Pujols left, sort of, and the fans have become a bit restless. With Goldschmidt, we'll be well-prepared to bring home that championship I fretted about earlier.

I'll agree that the Cardinals really didn't replace Pujols until they signed Goldschmidt.

His first few years were decent, and they were going all out to win it. Had the best record in baseball, ran into a hot Royals team in the playoffs.  It happens, especially in baseball. The issue was the length of the deal, and that was the risk they wanted to take.

[dgies9156]

I'm not saying it's the same situation, but Pujols did have a productive year at age 32 when he arrived in Anaheim before some injuries and a drop in production. Goldschmidt is 31, so a year younger than Pujols was when he made his move. Unless he's on the Barry Bonds workout regimen, the odds are his production will start to tail off in the next couple years. He's a great player who likely brings a big bat for a bit, but a long-term extension could put the Cards in a very similar situation to the one the Angels were in with Pujols.

Keep in mind that the Cardinals offered Mr. Pujols $200.0 million in a contract that would have made him a Cardinal and a legend for life. That's not chump change, even by current standards.

Ole Artie came around and offered $40 million more with a backloaded contract. Pujols' wife thought the Cardinals were ungrateful for not matching the salary and said so publicly. That led to a "good riddence" divorce between Ms. Pujols and Cardinal Nation.

You are right about the risk with Goldschmidt. The Barry Bonds needle regimine probably won't help much given advancement in detection techniques. But the Cardinals had to do something dramatic. They had a good team coming into 2019 but a team that without a big move was not going to catch the Cubs and perhaps not the Brewers. With this move, they are, as I earlier suggested, in a position to be the favorites in the NL Central and a contender for the National League Championship (especially given that the Dodgers just unloaded a core part of their team).

Cardinal Nation was demanding something be done. Three years out of the playoffs might be OK if you're a Cub fan. In Cardinal Nation, they're threatening to torch Busch III they're so angry.

The Bryce Harper sweepstakes may modify the division and the league, depending on where Mr. Harper and his agent choose to sign. If Mr. Harper becomes a Cub -- God forbid -- the Divisional arms race was just escalated. If he becomes a Dodger, he'll just become part of the annual el foldo the Dodgers are known for.