Bubble Watch 2018

[wisblue]

I guess we'll see in the next 3 games.

I would make that the next 4 since the game at Georgetown is just 2 days after the game at DePaul, and consecutive road games and short turnarounds have not been kind to this team.

If MU can win 3 of the next 4, the Creighton game at home will be interesting and I'll be able to pay more attention to the bubble. Until then the chances look pretty slim.

[wisblue]

On the blind resumes, I'm pretty sure MU is number 3 and their resume does look as good as or better than some and worse than others.

One thing these numbers don't tell us is who some of those quality wins were against. MU's 3 Q1 wins are against teams that are barely in the top 30 and may not carry as much weight as teams that have wins, especially road wins, against top 10 type teams.  Like MU's win over Villanova last year gave them a crown jewel that was worth more than a win over Creighton. Similarly, when Selection Sunday comes, MU's resume will look a lot better if they have 2 wins over Creighton than just 1, even if there's a loss thrown in.

Another thing you haven't listed is out of conference strength of schedule. I have followed these things pretty closely for the last few years, and the committee always says that they like to reward teams that "put themselves out there" in noncoference games. MU only fares so so in that category.   

Unless MU pulls the road upset tonight, I'll be skeptical that even winning the next 4 would be good enough. It would depend on things like how many quality wins other bubble teams add and could come down to whether there are any bid stealers or teams that make big runs in their conference tournaments.

[79Warrior]

I think most of the naysayers are saying nay because, unless MU does something they haven't been able to do all season (string several good games together) they will play themselves out of even remote consideration.

I think everyone realizes that it doesn't take much these days to sneak into the back end of the NCAA field. It's depressing that MU isn't able to clear that low bar.

Agree.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Let's play the blind resume game.  I am going to list 13 team's resumes with what the committee has stated will be their most important factors this season: quadrant wins/losses, SOS, and metrics.

Please select which six teams you believe have the best resumes of this group.

Team 1
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 9-1
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 53
SOS: 105

Team 2
Q1: 2-4
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric:51
SOS: 69

Team 3
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 6-0
Average Metric: 55
SOS: 20

Team 4
Q1: 4-7
Q2: 4-0
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0
Average Metric: 44
SOS: 72

Team 5
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 3-0
Q3: 5-4
Q4: 4-0
Avg Metric: 64
SOS: 10

Team 6
Q1: 5-7
Q2: 2-0
Q3: 2-2
Q4: 8-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: 54

Team 7
Q1: 2-5
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 9-1
Avg Metric: 50
SOS: 41

Team 8
Q1: 4-9
Q2: 1-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 69
SOS: 68

Team 9
Q1: 1-4
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: 29

Team 10
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: 28

Team 11
Q1: 0-7
Q2: 4-1
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: 96

Team 12
Q1: 0-2
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 55
SOS: 108

Team 13
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 63
SOS: 101

Here are the teams:

Team 1 – St Bonnie
Team 2 – UCLA
Team 3 – Marquette
Team 4- K State
5 – Temple
6 – NC state
7 – USC
8 – OK State
9 – Syracuse
10 – Baylor
11 - Nebraska
12 – Boise State
13 – Mississippi State

[skianth16]

Another thing you haven't listed is out of conference strength of schedule. I have followed these things pretty closely for the last few years, and the committee always says that they like to reward teams that "put themselves out there" in noncoference games. MU only fares so so in that category.   

I saw the other day that our non-con SOS was around 165. Has that gone down throughout the year? I seem to remember thinking we actually had a pretty good noncon schedule when we were playing it, but I don't remember what the ranking was.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I saw the other day that our non-con SOS was around 165. Has that gone down throughout the year? I seem to remember thinking we actually had a pretty good noncon schedule when we were playing it, but I don't remember what the ranking was.

Per Kenpom it's in the 170s. FWIW there is only 1 major conference team with a noncon sos in the top 50, and 6 in the top 100. Other services have Marquette in the 140s. MUs non con sos is definitely above average for major conference teams and above most teams around the bubble.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Nice work. The only teams I thought had better numbers than us were 5 & 6, Temple & NC State. Surprised by that (though I'm not one of the negativos here).

[brewcity77]

I saw the other day that our non-con SOS was around 165. Has that gone down throughout the year? I seem to remember thinking we actually had a pretty good noncon schedule when we were playing it, but I don't remember what the ranking was.

NCSOS tends to be higher for the mid and low majors because they end up playing all those buy games on the road against better teams whereas high major teams get those same games at home but against lesser teams. In the Pomeroy era, Marquette has only had 4 seasons where their NCSOS was in the top-200. Before this year, the highest ranked NCSOS ever was #187 in 2011-12. This year's #178 is the toughest ranked schedule Marquette has played in the past 17 years.

[wisblue]

Per Kenpom it's in the 170s. FWIW there is only 1 major conference team with a noncon sos in the top 50, and 6 in the top 100. Other services have Marquette in the 140s. MUs non con sos is definitely above average for major conference teams and above most teams around the bubble.

According to the NCAA team sheets there are many major conference teams with NC SOS in the top 100,including several bubble teams.

They have MU's at 143.

[forgetful]

According to the NCAA team sheets there are many major conference teams with NC SOS in the top 100,including several bubble teams.

They have MU's at 143.

Wisconsin is brining down our NC SOS.  Scrubs.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

According to the NCAA team sheets there are many major conference teams with NC SOS in the top 100,including several bubble teams.

They have MU's at 143.

I see that. Thanks for pointing out. I was using Kenpoms #s.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tomorrow's bubble slate.  I may not leave the house.


SMU @ UCF (both very fringe at this point; UCF further away)

Texas (11 seed) @ Oklahoma

Syracuse (first four out) @ Miami

Virginia Tech (10 seed) @ Georgia Tech

Providence (10 seed) @ Butler

Iowa State @ Kansas State (11 seed)

Missouri (8 seed) @ LSU (Either result is probably fine. Mizzou pretty safe at this point, LSU is a ways from the bubble. LSU win helps RPI)

Alabama @ Kentucky (frankly both teams probably safe)

Air Force @ Boise State (first four out)

Texas A&M @ Arkansas (9 seed)

Notre Dame (fringe bubble) @ Boston College

NC State (11 seed) @ Wake Forest

Tennessee @ Georgia (fringe bubble; win wouldn't be bad for MU)

Middle Tennessee (12 seed; potential bid stealer) @ Louisiana Tech

Texas Tech @ Baylor (first four out, very similar resume to MU)

Rutgers @ Maryland (Maryland fringe at best at this point)

Colorado @ Washington (11 seed)

OK State @ TCU (8 seed) (probably want TCU, OK State fringe bubble, TCU probably safe either way)

UT Arlington @ Louisiana (unlikely but potential bid staler)

Western Kentucky (potential bid stealer) @ Rice

North Carolina @ Louisville (10 seed)

Ole Miss @ Miss State (fringe bubble)

Utah (similar boat to MU) @ Washington State

Oregon (fringe bubble) @ UCLA (11 seed)

Oregon State @ USC (11 seed)

UCF beats SMU. Good result, neither are true bubble teams.

Texas wins. Bad.

Virginia tech pounded Georgia Tech. Expected but disappointing.

Cuse beats Miami. Also no bueno.

Butler taking care of PC. Good result. 

[forgetful]

UCF beats SMU. Good result, neither are true bubble teams.

Texas up 8 on Oklahoma under 5. Bad.

Virginia tech is pounding Georgia Tech. Expected but disappointing.

Cuse in a rock fight with Miami under 5. Game could go either way.

Butler taking care of PC. Good result.

After today, Oklahoma will have lost 8 of their last 10, with @ Kansas up next.  1) Why are they still ranked. 2) Are they playing themselves onto the bubble.

Their RPI is 34 right now, but will drop a good bit after a home loss to TX.  One of the most over-rated teams in the country.   

edit:  The RPI of 34 was after the Texas loss.  Didn't realize that.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

After today, Oklahoma will have lost 8 of their last 10, with @ Kansas up next.  1) Why are they still ranked. 2) Are they playing themselves onto the bubble.

Their RPI is 34 right now, but will drop a good bit after a home loss to TX.  One of the most over-rated teams in the country.   

Totally agreed. Just part of the B12 and Young love fest. If I'm an 11 or 10 that gets them opposite me in the bracket, I'm pretty pleased.

They do have 6 Q1 wins though, so I don't think they'll ever get particularly close to the bubble. I bet 7, maybe 8 seed is lowest if they continue downward trajectory.

[brewcity77]

After today, Oklahoma will have lost 8 of their last 10, with @ Kansas up next.  1) Why are they still ranked. 2) Are they playing themselves onto the bubble.

Their RPI is 34 right now, but will drop a good bit after a home loss to TX.  One of the most over-rated teams in the country.   

1) Overall resume and body of work.
2) Unlikely, but not impossible. 8-10 should get them in, and they have 2 at home against KSU and ISU teams they should really beat.

[BM1090]

1) Overall resume and body of work.
2) Unlikely, but not impossible. 8-10 should get them in, and they have 2 at home against KSU and ISU teams they should really beat.

Agreed. But they should really have beat Texas at home too.

[forgetful]

1) Overall resume and body of work.
2) Unlikely, but not impossible. 8-10 should get them in, and they have 2 at home against KSU and ISU teams they should really beat.

Right now, I agree they are not near the bubble.  But they also shouldn't be top 25 after losing 8 of the last 10.  If they end up 7-11 should they be in?

They lost to KSU by 18 last time they played, and to ISU by 8.  8-10 would get them in, but they aren't playing like that is likely right now.

[brewcity77]

Agreed. But they should really have beat Texas at home too.

Very true. They will be interesting if they go 17-13 (7-11). Hard to keep a team out with 6 Q1 wins and no losses outside Q2, but the overall record would be tough to justify.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

K State wins.

Boise State takes care of business.

LSU takes down Mizzou.

Kentucky beats Alabama.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Not a great day in terms of results for bubble teams.

But by far the most important result was an MU W!

[MU82]

Trae Young missed 20 straight 3s over a 3-game stretch before finally hitting one tonight.

Watched a little SportsCenter and they highlighted how teams are defending him now. Making life very difficult. Markus knows how that feels some nights - I just hope he gets back to feel it again!

[brewcity77]

We'll likely climb back into the national bubble conversation with tonight's win, but this simple reality remains (adjusted for Creighton win):

4-0: NCAA Lock
3-1: NCAA bid likely
2-2: NIT Lock
1-3: Marquette Madness likely October 5th

[Dr. Blackheart]

Pomeroy has us going 4-0

[YoungMUFan4]

Pomeroy has us going 4-0

Technically he has us going 2-2 but each individual game is over 50%

[drewm88]

We'll likely climb back into the national bubble conversation with tonight's win, but this simple reality remains (adjusted for Creighton win):

4-0: NCAA Lock
3-1: NCAA bid likely
2-2: NIT Lock
1-3: Marquette Madness likely October 5th

I don't think 4-0 puts us out of the danger zone if we lose to a bottom feeder in New York.