Bubble Watch 2018

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Any chance you could randomize the teams and do this again?
I would have though Nebraska's goose pretty well cooked, although some still have them in before us (is a loss @ Illinois Q3, or Q4?), it'd be nice to re-evaluate without the reputation of the team name influencing decisions.

Sure I will do it again some day this week. Generally speaking, bubble teams as a whole had an impressive showing this weekend. I highly doubt that continues. I think the analysis would be better to do after early and mid week games.

[BM1090]

ND loses. Maryland wins.

[real chili 83]

ND loses. Maryland wins.

ND sucks

[JakeBarnes]

Uhhh....Oklahoma not lookin so hot, aina?

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Uhhh....Oklahoma not lookin so hot, aina?

I'm tired of my ESPN App giving updates on Trae Young.  6 times per game.

[Dawson Rental]

ND loses. Maryland wins.

Nice to know that that ND stank isn't stinking up our SOS.

[brewcity77]

February 20, 2018

West Virginia at Baylor
Bears right on the bubble

Kentucky at Arkansas
Both in right now, but Arkansas could fall out if they lose out, which is a realistic proposition

Mississippi State at Texas A&M
MSU is on the fringe of the bubble, a couple losses would kill any hopes.

Indiana at Nebraska
The Huskers took a big hit with the loss to Illinois, losing to IU would seal them on the outside.

Boston College at NC State
The Wolfpack have a bizarre resume with great wins and putrid losses. More putrid losses would dent their case.

Vanderbilt at LSU
LSU is right on the bubble. Better they lose, but a win would help RPI.

The Citadel at East Tennessee State
I don't think ETSU will get in without the autobid, but another loss would guarantee that.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

ESPN's updated bubble watch as of this AM:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch022018/perfect-storm-brewing-pac-12

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think Bleacher Report's summary of Marquette in their bracketology, especially the last paragraph, is pretty much spot on. They have Marquette as a 10 seed.

Moving Up: Marquette Golden Eagles (New to the Field)
15-11, RPI: 57, KP: 48, SOS: 15

Marquette only played one game in the last seven days, but it was a huge one. The Golden Eagles stormed back from a 16-point deficit in the first half for a road win over Creighton.

It was their third road win against a quality Big East foe, adding to a collection that already included Seton Hall and Providence. Factor in the home win over Seton Hall, and the Golden Eagles now have four quadrant 1 wins and no terrible losses.

The 11 losses is a bit many at this point in the season, but that's no reason to exclude Marquette from the field. It's simply a product of a team having already played the toughest portions of its schedule. If the Golden Eagles are able to win their next three games against St. John's, DePaul and Georgetown, they should enter the Big East tournament in good dancing position, regardless of what happens in their season finale at home against Creighton.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2760269-2018-ncaa-tournament-bracket-latest-projection-of-the-field-of-68

[wisblue]

One thing to keep in mind, and correct me if I'm wrong, but I think most of the visible bracketologists (like Lunardi) establish their brackets based on projections of how teams will finish and not "if the season ended today". I know Palm used to base his on current resumes with no projection, but I don't know if that's changed.

I think that's partly why a team like Baylor, which has a resume very similar to MUs, is in Lunardi's bracket while MU isn't even in his first 8 out. MU doesn't have as many opportunities to enhance its resume as Baylor does, and if you project that Baylor and MU both finish 2-2, Baylor would end up clearly ahead.

In other words, MU has to exceed its projected finish to get into the field (by winning at least 3 more) while a team like Baylor might just have to meet theirs.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

One thing to keep in mind, and correct me if I'm wrong, but I think most of the visible bracketologists (like Lunardi) establish their brackets based on projections of how teams will finish and not "if the season ended today". I know Palm used to base his on current resumes with no projection, but I don't know if that's changed.

I think that's partly why a team like Baylor, which has a resume very similar to MUs, is in Lunardi's bracket while MU isn't even in his first 8 out. MU doesn't have as many opportunities to enhance its resume as Baylor does, and if you project that Baylor and MU both finish 2-2, Baylor would end up clearly ahead.

In other words, MU has to exceed its projected finish to get into the field (by winning at least 3 more) while a team like Baylor might just have to meet theirs.

I don't believe the bolded is correct.  Lunardi definitely does it as if the season ended today. 100% certain of that.  I believe most bracketologists do it that way, but certainly some lesser known guys may project outwards (but that becomes alot more difficult and time consuming to do so).

[Windyplayer]

Back in ESPN Bubble Watch:

The Golden Eagles played their way back into this conversation by winning at Creighton. To stick around for a while, they will have to do some grunt work outside of Quadrant 1, with a home game against St. John's and road tests at DePaul and Georgetown.

Give Marquette credit. On paper, this is not a defense that one would expect to accompany a team pushing its way into the bubble conversation. Remarkably, six of the team's past seven opponents have scored 1.15 points per possession or better. Nevertheless, the Golden Eagles are at least raising the bubble question, thanks to some good offense and large helpings of great 3-point shooting.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch022018/perfect-storm-brewing-pac-12

[brewcity77]

Give Marquette credit. On paper, this is not a defense that one would expect to accompany a team pushing its way into the bubble conversation. Remarkably, six of the team's past seven opponents have scored 1.15 points per possession or better. Nevertheless, the Golden Eagles are at least raising the bubble question, thanks to some good offense and large helpings of great 3-point shooting.

I laughed out loud when I read that sentence. Remarkably? We lost 4 of those 6 games. That's not remarkable, it's downright bad.

[UNC Eagle]

I think MU is effectively in the tournament right now. That is we need to win every regular season game  plus at least one BET victory from here on out to get into the tournament. The good news is it is very possible to do that. We need a good loud crowd tomorrow night to give that tournament vibe.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think MU is effectively in the tournament right now. That is we need to win every regular season game  plus at least one BET victory from here on out to get into the tournament. The good news is it is very possible to do that. We need a good loud crowd tomorrow night to give that tournament vibe.

Is that just your gut feeling, or do you have any tangible information to back up that take? Because there is an overwhelming amount of information contrary to that.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

West Virginia piss pounding Baylor in Waco. Good news.

[MU82]

I think MU is effectively in the tournament right now. That is we need to win every regular season game  plus at least one BET victory from here on out to get into the tournament. The good news is it is very possible to do that. We need a good loud crowd tomorrow night to give that tournament vibe.

This seems quite wrong based on the mountain of other stuff I have read on the subject.

[brewcity77]

West Virginia piss pounding Baylor in Waco. Good news.

I won't be comfortable until WVU is up when the clock hits zero. They have shown an uncanny propensity to blow huge leads this year.

[BM1090]

Mississippi State handles A&M on the road. SEC doing all they can to maximize bids

[BM1090]

I won't be comfortable until WVU is up when the clock hits zero. They have shown an uncanny propensity to blow huge leads this year.

Yep. Lead down from 26 to 10. Still a lot of time left too.

[BM1090]

Bottom of the bubble is really strengthening itself. The middle is historically weak though. Really not much difference between teams 29-50.

[BM1090]

NC St and Miss St win. ETSU loses. Baylor is going to lose, back down 20.

[muguru]

Is that just your gut feeling, or do you have any tangible information to back up that take? Because there is an overwhelming amount of information contrary to that.

I THINK what he is implying is that the rest of the season is the NCAA tournament for MU, win and they are in, essentially that they control their own destiny, to make it or not from here on out.

[Mr. Nielsen]

I'm tired of my ESPN App giving updates on Trae Young.  6 times per game.

Get the CBS Score App

[brewcity77]

Yep. Lead down from 26 to 10. Still a lot of time left too.

West Virginia is a team I'd love to see in the tournament. They are really proficient at giving up big second half leads, and aren't very good at shooting or defending the three (percentage and attempts). Also aren't an overwhelmingly big team.