Bubble Watch 2018

[Jay Bee]

Maybe its cliche, but beating a team you're pretty much of par with 3/3 time is quite a challenge.  Sh*t, beating them 2/2 times is going to be quite a challenge.

It's just not true.

[oldwarrior81]

the bracketmatrix has Syracuse, UCLA, Washington and Marquette as the first 4 out.

Providence, Louisville, Texas and Baylor as the last 4 in.

[Its DJOver]

They're on the bubble, but with the quality of their Q1 wins, is Providence actually in any trouble?  I haven't looked at the team sheet/ advanced numbers much, but how many bubble teams have beaten 2 potential 1 seeds?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

They're on the bubble, but with the quality of their Q1 wins, is Providence actually in any trouble?  I haven't looked at the team sheet/ advanced numbers much, but how many bubble teams have beaten 2 potential 1 seeds?

Providence is a weird case. The have two VERY good wins against Nova and X, both at home. They also have three VERY bad losses against Minnesota (at home), UMass, and DePaul (at home).

I wonder how much the committee will weigh their wins/losses based on the personnel available in each game. They beat Nova sans Phil Booth, so that might cheapen the win a little. But they also were beat by UMass when Diallo was hurt and Cartwright was playing hurt, so that might soften the blow a bit. They also lost to Minnesota when they were at full strength before the suspension of Lynch, injuries to McBrayer, and injuries to Coffey. So maybe they don't penalize them as much for that loss.

The other thing working against Providence is their KenPom. Their RPI looks nice at 42 but their KenPom is a rough 72. If KenPom truly is being used more by the committee....it could be a problem for them.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Providence is a weird case. The have two VERY good wins against Nova and X, both at home. They also have three VERY bad losses against Minnesota (at home), UMass, and DePaul (at home).

I wonder how much the committee will weigh their wins/losses based on the personnel available in each game. They beat Nova sans Phil Booth, so that might cheapen the win a little. But they also were beat by UMass when Diallo was hurt and Cartwright was playing hurt, so that might soften the blow a bit. They also lost to Minnesota when they were at full strength before the suspension of Lynch, injuries to McBrayer, and injuries to Coffey. So maybe they don't penalize them as much for that loss.

The other thing working against Providence is their KenPom. Their RPI looks nice at 42 but their KenPom is a rough 72. If KenPom truly is being used more by the committee....it could be a problem for them.

I think PC is pretty safe.  I think they'll get in even with a loss vs. SJU on Saturday.  But I also think MU's resume is slightly superior based on the blind resume test.  As Brew mentioned, they have better wins, but they have 2 pretty bad losses.  Same conference record.  Analytic rankings aren't great.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Not much in the way of true bubble action tonight:

Northwestern @ Penn State (fringe)
Virginia @ Louisville (last four in)
Western Kentucky (next four out) @ Middle Tennessee (11 seed; probably not 100% safe without AQ, but probably not the game we want them to lose)
NC State (9 seed) @ Georgia Tech
Cal @ Arizona State (9 seed)
Oregon State @ Washington (first four out)

Unfortunately, most of the teams the bubbly teams are playing tonight are awful.  I wouldn't expect losses except for Louisville and Western Kentucky.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think we can start adding games including potential bracketbusters:

Iowa vs. Michigan (I doubt Iowa goes all the way but I want as many locks in the next round as possible to knock off the Wisconsins, Indianas, and Nebraskas of the world)

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think we can start adding games including potential bracketbusters:

Iowa vs. Michigan (I doubt Iowa goes all the way but I want as many locks in the next round as possible to knock off the Wisconsins, Indianas, and Nebraskas of the world)

Ya know...I'm rooting for Iowa.  Michigan is in regardless, and if Iowa wins it gives Nebraska yet another sh*t opponent before getting pounded by Michigan State.  Removes the chance to add a good win to their resume that sorely lacks them.

Iowa isn't winning the B10 tournament.

[Boozemon Barro]

Ya know...I'm rooting for Iowa.  Michigan is in regardless, and if Iowa wins it gives Nebraska yet another sh*t opponent before getting pounded by Michigan State.  Removes the chance to add a good win to their resume that sorely lacks them.

Iowa isn't winning the B10 tournament.

Yep. We should be rooting for Iowa.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Ya know...I'm rooting for Iowa.  Michigan is in regardless, and if Iowa wins it gives Nebraska yet another sh*t opponent before getting pounded by Michigan State.  Removes the chance to add a good win to their resume that sorely lacks them.

Iowa isn't winning the B10 tournament.

No they aren't winning the B1G tourney....and they probably aren't beating Nebraska either. Which puts the Huskers one upset away from the B1G championship game....assuming Michigan State doesn't crap the bed against Wisconsin.

At this point, I want all the locks just to take care of business. Don't need the bubble getting any smaller than it has to. Though I see what your saying about sabotaging Nebraka's resume with another matchup against Iowa.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

No they aren't winning the B1G tourney....and they probably aren't beating Nebraska either. Which puts the Huskers one upset away from the B1G championship game....assuming Michigan State doesn't crap the bed against Wisconsin.

At this point, I want all the locks just to take care of business. Don't need the bubble getting any smaller than it has to. Though I see what your saying about sabotaging Nebraka's resume with another matchup against Iowa.

Yep, just two different routes to the same goal. Doubt Iowa wins this game anyhow...they are bad.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I don't want Wisconsin to upset Michigan St and luck into a semi final against Iowa. Even Nebraska isn't daunting. Keep Michigan alive. Had Wisconsin lost today I wouldn't mind.

It'd be just Wisconsin's luck to get an Iowa and Penn St/Indiana draw.  Looks like Michigan is off to a good start to the second half though.

[robmufan]

I don't want Wisconsin to upset Michigan St and luck into a semi final against Iowa. Even Nebraska isn't daunting. Keep Michigan alive. Had Wisconsin lost today I wouldn't mind.

It'd be just Wisconsin's luck to get an Iowa and Penn St/Indiana draw.  Looks like Michigan is off to a good start to the second half though.

Unless somehow the Wisco win becomes a Q1 win (which I am pretty sure it won't)...im good if they get crushed tomorrow! The only thing they can do is hurt us at this point by stealing a bid.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Michigan is not good.

[BM1090]

Michigan is not good.

They can be, they've shot terribly today though. Fun last minute or two.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

They can be, they've shot terribly today though. Fun last minute or two.

Some 11 or 12 seed is going to happy with their draw.

[wisblue]

Michigan is not good.

Michigan is better when they make more than 3 for 19 3 pointers and when Wagner and MAAR don't get fouled out in 15 minutes.

[muguru]

On Providence...this is interesting..Providence lost at Xavier and has seen other damage done to its tournament resume. The Friars now have four quadrant 4 losses. One of those is Minnesota, which was at full strength when it beat Providence, so that loss may not be viewed quite as harshly. Even with that, only seven teams in 20 years have received at-large bids with as many as two quadrant four losses. Providence is one of those. The Friars got in last year with two Q4 losses.

[GGGG]

On Providence...this is interesting..Providence lost at Xavier and has seen other damage done to its tournament resume. The Friars now have four quadrant 4 losses. One of those is Minnesota, which was at full strength when it beat Providence, so that loss may not be viewed quite as harshly. Even with that, only seven teams in 20 years have received at-large bids with as many as two quadrant four losses. Providence is one of those. The Friars got in last year with two Q4 losses.

Bracket Matrix has PC in Dayton.  They could easily fall out if they lose the next couple.

[MuMark]

Louisville is about 11 minutes from just about locking up a bid.....up 13 on the Cavs.

[MuMark]

NC State just took a bad loss against Georgia Tech

[BM1090]

Nc State still safe by plenty and Louisville locked up a bid. WKU is done barring an autobid.

[MuMark]

Epic choke by Louisville.......lol

[BM1090]

Epic choke by Louisville.......lol

Wow. I just assumed haha. That was absurd

[muguru]

Epic choke by Louisville.......lol

You aren't kidding...WOW lol