Bubble Watch 2018

[Spotcheck Billy]

Ya.....no.  Dayton is the NCAAs.  I get what you're saying (I don't agree at all) in that to the casual fan its just a play in game.  But it counts as a tourney appearance.  To say you'd prefer NIT over a tourney appearance is nuts...especially with your repeated standards.

Does a win in Dayton pay the same tourney share as a round 2 win Thursday/Friday?

[MUfan12]

Here's what I got:

Last Four Byes
Team 3
Team 6
Team 9
Team 2

Last Four In
Team 12
Team 14
Team 1
Team 5

First Four Out
Team 8
Team 15
Team 4
Team 11

Next Four Out
Team 7
Team 10
Team 16
Team 13

Didn't separate them, but had the same IN/OUT breakdown.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Team 10 also had its quadrant wins change. RPI may have been updated since the post, their quad wins look like this now:

1: 3-6
2: 2-2
3: 7-2
4: 7-0

I think may have the wrong team for #10....quadrants haven't changed for that team since I posted.  Maybe just using different sources. 

[wisblue]

Here's what I would say based on just this information:

1. Solid metrics, 7 QW (tier 1 and 2), and decent SOS- IN
2. Best metrics in the group, strong SOS, light but OK on QW- IN
3. Solid. IN
4. Weak on the metrics and SOS. OUT, unless the Q1 wins are special.
5. Might depend on quality of Q1 wins, but IN
6. 11 quality wins and strong SOS. IN
7. Weak metrics and bad SOS. OUT. (will committee punish teams with weak OOC SOS?
8. Quality wins overcome middling metrics. IN
9.IN
10. mediocre metrics and SOS and a couple of bad losses. OUT
11. Obviously a mid major with low SOS. OUT, but close. Committee may want to reward a mid major.
12. IN
13. OUT and not that close.
14. I know who this is. OUT for now.
15. Know who this is too. OUT unless they win a few to give them injury consideration. but those bad losses are still an issue.
16. OUT.

So, my INs are 1,2,3,5,6,8,9, and 12 subject to change based on closer review of the wins and losses relative to other teams. I also like to see OOC SOS because the committee has shown favor in the past to bubble teams that "put themselves out there" in nonconference games.

4, 13, 15, and 16 are the weakest 4 to me.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Here's what I would say based on just this information:

1. Solid metrics, 7 QW (tier 1 and 2), and decent SOS- IN
14. I know who this is. OUT for now.

I'm curious about your thinking on these two.

Team 1 has better metrics (42 vs 52)
Team 14 has the same number of QWs....except they have 4 Q1s/3Q2s and Team 1 has 3 Q1s/4Q2s
Team 14's SOS is much higher than Team 1

Is the 10 point difference in average metrics worth the 30 point difference in SOS and more Q1 wins for team 14?

[JoeSmith1721]

I went and looked up the teams. I was very surprised about who Team 1 is. They are considered a lock almost everywhere and I had them playing in Dayton.

Team 10 also had its quadrant wins change. RPI may have been updated since the post, their quad wins look like this now:

1: 3-6
2: 2-2
3: 7-2
4: 7-0

Finally, I have no idea who team 16 is. Couldn't find anyone who matched their profile.

It looks like it's Washington but I'm not positive.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'm curious about your thinking on these two.

Team 1 has better metrics (42 vs 52)
Team 14 has the same number of QWs....except they have 4 Q1s/3Q2s and Team 1 has 3 Q1s/4Q2s
Team 14's SOS is much higher than Team 1

Is the 10 point difference in average metrics worth the 30 point difference in SOS and more Q1 wins for team 14?

Its because he knows who the team is, and that is affecting his decision. He pretty much said that.

[wisblue]

I'm curious about your thinking on these two.

Team 1 has better metrics (42 vs 52)
Team 14 has the same number of QWs....except they have 4 Q1s/3Q2s and Team 1 has 3 Q1s/4Q2s
Team 14's SOS is much higher than Team 1

Is the 10 point difference in average metrics worth the 30 point difference in SOS and more Q1 wins for team 14?

Yes, as JJJJJ said I know who 14 is and know that they don't have any wins against top 20 teams.

I looked now and see who team 1 is, and they have 2 wins over top 5 teams, one on a neutral court and one on the road.

I'm reluctant to put too much weight on SOS by itself because that would seem to be baked to some extent into the metrics. When it comes to SOS I also would consider the OOC SOS.

Now that I know who both teams are and can look at their entire resumes I would still put 1 over 14. But, I could make an argument for 14 focusing on quality road wins. Number 1 has been slumping recently.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tonight's bubble action:

Providence (11 seed) @ Xavier
LSU (fringe; LSU win wouldn't be bad) @ South Carolina
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (fringe; Pitt is horrible and will not win)
Temple (fringe) @ UCONN
Texas A&M (7 seed) @ Georgia (fringe)
-I think I will be rooting for Georgia in this one. They are getting pretty close to a Q3 loss, and we don't want that.  Also, Texas A&M is overseeded at as a 7 and a loss tonight gives them 10 SEC losses and still have to play Bama this weekend.  Give me the Bulldogs.
Florida State (9 seed) @ Clemson
Syracuse (first four out) @ Boston College

[SaveOD238]

Tonight's bubble action:

Providence (11 seed) @ Xavier
LSU (fringe; LSU win wouldn't be bad) @ South Carolina
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (fringe; Pitt is horrible and will not win)
Temple (fringe) @ UCONN
Texas A&M (7 seed) @ Georgia (fringe)
-I think I will be rooting for Georgia in this one. They are getting pretty close to a Q3 loss, and we don't want that.  Also, Texas A&M is overseeded at as a 7 and a loss tonight gives them 10 SEC losses and still have to play Bama this weekend.  Give me the Bulldogs.
Florida State (9 seed) @ Clemson
Syracuse (first four out) @ Boston College

Honestly, Providence and Syracuse are the only games that matter tonight.  Maybe Georgia due to its standing on our resume.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Honestly, Providence and Syracuse are the only games that matter tonight.  Maybe Georgia due to its standing on our resume.

Most likely, but definitely doesn't hurt for teams like A&M and Florida State to finish sub .500 in conference.  A&M has a pile of Q1 wins, but man....they've got a legit shot to finish SEC at 7-11. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Based on TAMU's last 8 in / first 8 out...here are the squads:

Last Four Byes
Team 3 - Texas
Team 6 - Alabama
Team 9 - Baylor
Team 2 - Louisville

Last Four In
Team 12 - USC
Team 14 - Marquette
Team 1 - Arizona State
Team 5 - Syracuse

First Four Out
Team 8 - Providence
Team 15 - Notre Dame
Team 4 - Utah
Team 11 - St. Bonnie

Next Four Out
Team 7 - Mississippi State
Team 10 - UCLA
Team 16 - Washington
Team 13 - Nebraska

These teams were based on Lunardi's last 8 in / first 8 out as of this morning.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tonight's bubble action:

Providence (11 seed) @ Xavier
LSU (fringe; LSU win wouldn't be bad) @ South Carolina
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (fringe; Pitt is horrible and will not win)
Temple (fringe) @ UCONN
Texas A&M (7 seed) @ Georgia (fringe)
-I think I will be rooting for Georgia in this one. They are getting pretty close to a Q3 loss, and we don't want that.  Also, Texas A&M is overseeded at as a 7 and a loss tonight gives them 10 SEC losses and still have to play Bama this weekend.  Give me the Bulldogs.
Florida State (9 seed) @ Clemson
Syracuse (first four out) @ Boston College

Providence lost
LSU lost
Temple lost
Notre Dame won

[MU82]

Wow ... effen Pitt.

Leave the Big East and the program goes to crap. They've become the ACC's Rutgers!

[Windyplayer]

Devastating loss for Cuse (lost by 15 @BC). Great for us!

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

Assuming we end up in 7 seed, we need butler to pull this one out to get @sju for resume purposes, correct?

[Newsdreams]

Assuming we end up in 7 seed, we need butler to pull this one out to get @sju for resume purposes, correct?

Yes

[MUfan12]

Horrible loss for Butler. Up five with under :20 left and blew it. Last possession of OT was a total mess.

[94Warrior]

So much for SJ being the 10 seed, they beat Butler in double OT. 

Now we need to get out of the 7 seed to avoid DP. 

Need a win and a SHU loss to Butler on Sat to get out of the 7.
Then we will be the 5 or 6 depending on how Providence/SJ turns out.

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

Since a win vs DePaul wouldn't move the needle we need to get into 6 seed. How improbable is that?

[Smokin' Jae]

Since a win vs DePaul wouldn't move the needle we need to get into 6 seed. How improbable is that?

While a win against depaul definitely doesn't do anything for you a win against nova on Thursday sure would, so you'd still have a shot to play your way in with one big win

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Since a win vs DePaul wouldn't move the needle we need to get into 6 seed. How improbable is that?

Not that improbable. Hall lose to Butler on Sat and we win.

[muguru]

Since a win vs DePaul wouldn't move the needle we need to get into 6 seed. How improbable is that?

SH just needs to lose to Butler..or if PC and SH both lose i believe MU wins that tiebreaker..absolutely unreal that SJU beats Butler without Ponds. Butler is such a diff team on the road..except at MU. 

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

I think you're correct. Need butler to win at SH (sonogo is doubtful) and we'd overtaje them.

Not sure about prov given we split with them. Isn't the tie breaker like a mini conference of all the 9-9 teams if you split h2h?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think you're correct. Need butler to win at SH (sonogo is doubtful) and we'd overtaje them.

Not sure about prov given we split with them. Isn't the tie breaker like a mini conference of all the 9-9 teams?

If PC, Hall and MU all end 9-9, MU gets 5 seed. PC plays SJU on Sat.