Bubble Watch 2018

[wisblue]

Is SH still a lock if they lose their next two games (won't hurt them much against Xavier & Nova), and we win Sat., SH would become 7th. I know it is unlikely but if they lose to DePaul, I think they end up in the bubble.

Seton Hall has strong overall metrics and a few other things going for them, like a strong OOC schedule. if they lose the next 3 I think it will just affect their seed.

This late in the season if a team is considered a lock it should mean that they are in even if they lose their last 2 or 3 games.

[Newsdreams]

Seton Hall has strong overall metrics and a few other things going for them, like a strong OOC schedule. if they lose the next 3 I think it will just affect their seed.

This late in the season if a team is considered a lock it should mean that they are in even if they lose their last 2 or 3 games.

I see them in right know but I don't see them as a high enough seed. I could see them getting into trouble if they lose the next 2 and go 0-1 in BET

[wisblue]

I see them in right know but I don't see them as a high enough seed. I could see them getting into trouble if they lose the next 2 and go 0-1 in BET

The Braxket Mateix has them as a consensus 7 seed. That puts them between 25 and 28 on the seed list. I don't see them falling from there to all the way out of the field with 3 losses, especially where 2 of them would be to Villanova and Butler. The at large teams usually go down to about 45 or so on the seed list, depending on how many automatic bids are taken by teams that would have received at large bids if they hadn't won their conference tournaments.

[drewm88]

St. Bonnie's and Davidson in the final seconds of 2OT on CBS SN.

[Windyplayer]

St. Bonnie's and Davidson in the final seconds of 2OT on CBS SN.

Great game. 100-100 with 19 sec left in 2OT.

[drewm88]

Great game. 100-100 with 19 sec left in 2OT.

It'll only be great if Davidson can pull it out. Headed to 3OT.

[auburnmarquette]

I agree the way you've set up Bracket Matrix makes the most sense. However, just to give an alternate (best case perhaps) view, I lined them up based on ESPN's resume (their claim is strength of record - how likely the 25th ranked team would be to match your record - is the best predictor). This places Marquette as in by 2 spots with Boise State behind them.

10-seeds or lower based on ESPN Resume SOR      
      
Texas A&M   10   SEC   18-11   51% at Georgia, 71% vs Bama
St. Bonaventure   10   A 10   22-6   overtime vs Davidson, 57% at St. Louis
Louisville   10   ACC   19-10   29% vs Uva, 40% at NC State
Florida   10   SEC   18-11   73-52 over bama; 62% vs. Kentucky
Texas   11   Big 12   17-13   45% vs. West Virginia
Saint Mary's   11   WCC   27-4   West Coast Tournament
Baylor   11   Big 12   17-12   beat Oklahoma 87-64, 43% at K-State
Mississippi State   11   SEC   21-8   LOST 54-76 to Tennessee; 40% at LSU
Providence   11   Big East   18-11   16% at Xavier, 64% vs St. John's
Marquette   12   Big East   17-12   53% vs. Creighton
Boise State   12   MW   22-6   vs San Diego State late, 82% vs. Wyoming

cutoff based on ESPN Resume Strength of Record
         
Maryland   --   Big Ten   19-12   Big Ten Tournament
Missouri   --   SEC   18-11   beat Vanderbilt 74-66; 62% vs. Arkansas
Syracuse   --   ACC   18-11   49% at BC, 50% vs Clemson
USC   --   Pac-12   21-9   67% vs. UCLA
Arizona State   --   Pac-12   19-9   95% vs. Cal, 80% vs. Stanford
Alabama   --   SEC   17-12   lost 52-73 to Florida
Georgia   --   SEC   16-12   29% at Texas A&M
Notre Dame   --   ACC   17-12   95% vs Pitt, 14% at Virginia
Oklahoma State   --   Big 12   16-13   beat Iowa 80-71, 35% vs. Kansas
Western Kentucky   --   C-USA   22-7   35% at Middle TN, 61% at UAB
UCLA   --   Pac-12   19-10   33% at USC
Temple   --   American   16-12   62% at Uconn, 47% at Tulsa
LSU   --   SEC   16-12   43% at South Carolina, 60% vs Miss St.
Penn State   --   Big Ten   19-12   Big Ten Tournament
Utah   --   Pac-12   18-10   77% vs Colorado

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tonight's bubble action:

Tennessee @ Mississippi State (First Four Out)
Florida @ Alabama (9 seed; probably safe)
Missouri (10 seed) @ Vanderbilt
Miami (9 seed; probably safe) @ North Carolina
Auburn @ Arkansas (7 seed, probably safe but 9-7 in SEC)
Oklahoma (8 seed) @ Baylor (last four in)
Kansas State (11 seed) @ TCU
Davidson @ St. Bonnie (last four in)
Boise State (next four out) @ San Diego State

Miss St lost
Bama lost
Miami won
Arkansas won
Baylor won / Oklahoma lost
K State lost

Davidson up 4 in 3OT
Boise up 3 in 1H

[Herman Cain]

Don't really think people are understanding how the selection works. If we were going to be a bubble team going 3-0 with wins over Depaul, Georgetown and Creighton and we lost to 170 RPI Depaul. How does beating Georgetown who also has a 120+ RPI make us in the tournament with a win over creighton. I think we need to beat creighton, SJU and Nova to even get considered.

That Depaul game was as bad a loss as you could get. The thing MU had going for them is that that have 0 losses outside of quadrant 1 and 2. Now they cannot say that anymore.

I agree with this analysis.

[Newsdreams]

The Braxket Mateix has them as a consensus 7 seed. That puts them between 25 and 28 on the seed list. I don't see them falling from there to all the way out of the field with 3 losses, especially where 2 of them would be to Villanova and Butler. The at large teams usually go down to about 45 or so on the seed list, depending on how many automatic bids are taken by teams that would have received at large bids if they hadn't won their conference tournaments.

If they are really that high of a seed then it is correct they won't be near the bubble.

[SaveOD238]

Alabama (17-13) and Oklahoma (17-12) both lost by 20+ tonight and are a combined 3-12 in February...are they bubble teams yet?  A couple good results with K-State, Miss St, and Boise losing, but Baylor and Bonaventure (3 OTs!) got big wins.

Providence still has to play Seton Hall, @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns.  Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!

K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor.  Go Sooners/Frogs!

USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA.  Go Buffs (again)!

Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va.  Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!

St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU.  Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!

Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State.  Go Hokies/Cavs!

Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState.  Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)

——————————————————-BracketMatrix Cut Line——————————————-

UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC.  Go Buffs/Trojans!

Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson.  Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!

Washington has to play @Stanford, @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon.  Go Cardinal/Bears/Beavers/Ducks!

Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU.  Go Cocks/Vols!

LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt.  Go Cocks (again)!

Boise State has to play @SDSU and Wyoming.

Nebraska just has Penn St.  BT Tournament: winner of Mich, Iowa, or UIUC

MARQUETTE

Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado.  Go Buffs (again!)

Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn.  Go Aggies/Vols!

[PGsHeroes32]

When OU gets into the tourney it will be the biggest abomination in tourney history

That team is absolutely horrendous.

Once teams realized that all you have to do is smother Young they have been dreadful and Young himself hasn't been much better.

Every other play on that team is trash.

[BM1090]

Boise State lost. Solid night for MU

[brewcity77]

San Diego State knocks off Boise State.

[wisblue]

@auburnmarquette, I could easily make a pretty good argument that MU belongs at the back end of the field, especially if they beat Creighton. But the million dollar question is what the Committee values the most out of the dozens of data points in its teams sheets. Who knows if the new Quadrant system will produce different results than past years?

If I wanted to be simplistic and objective I could just look at the RPI (which, with all of its known flaws, is still used as the basis to rank teams and quality of wins) and the average of all of the other metrics on the team sheets. Because the top 46-48 teams should be in the field before you get to the lesser one bid conference winners, teams with ratings around 50 and above are going to need something else to make their case, and that's where MU is now.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

@auburnmarquette, I could easily make a pretty good argument that MU belongs at the back end of the field, especially if they beat Creighton. But the million dollar question is what the Committee values the most out of the dozens of data points in its teams sheets. Who knows if the new Quadrant system will produce different results than past years?

If I wanted to be simplistic and objective I could just look at the RPI (which, with all of its known flaws, is still used as the basis to rank teams and quality of wins) and the average of all of the other metrics on the team sheets. Because the top 46-48 teams should be in the field before you get to the lesser one bid conference winners, teams with ratings around 50 and above are going to need something else to make their case, and that's where MU is now.

Just looking at RPI you also have to take out the low majors with exaggerated RPIs. Teams like Northeastern, Vermont, Louisiana Lafayette, Buffalo, and New Mexico State have great RPIs but historically have never been included in the tournament as an at large. If Marquette beats Creighton, St John's (in the BET), and loses to Nova their RPI will be in the top 46-48 once you remove those low majors.

[Mu2323]

For what its worth CBS know has marquette in there first 4 out number 4 andnd ESPN now have marquette in the next four out number 7. 

[auburnmarquette]

I agree with this analysis.

My only difference is that I believe we are a lock if we were to win 3 more ending in beating the 2-seed. Looking at rpi forecast our rpi and sos would be so good at that point that with 20 wins we'd be a lock. However I agree anything short of that would leave us out.

[muguru]

If Seton Hall is thought that highly of by the committee then MU's sweep over them should look awfully good to, right?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Interesting tidbit I discovered while looking at our resume. Until their defeat of Nova this past weekend,  Creighton had exactly one Q1 victory. A home victory over Seton Hall. They are obviously a lock,  especially since they beat Nova,  but I thought it was interesting

[MUfan12]

Torvik has MU in the last four in.

[fjm]

I think this is going to be a jaw dropping selection Sunday this year.

Like TAMU just said: creigthon has 2 Q1 win. It's a big win, but they have just one!

What is the committee going to value more? RPI and SOS? Q1 and 2 wins? Q 3-4 loses?

As someone else said, mu has some good Q1-2 losses and only one (fuggin DePaul) Q 3-4 loss.

What if the committee values that over RPI or SOS? This could be an interesting selection for that bubble where they take teams with the better Q wins vs RPI&SOS.

Edit: TAMU said 2. I'm half blind apparently.

[wisblue]

Just looking at RPI you also have to take out the low majors with exaggerated RPIs. Teams like Northeastern, Vermont, Louisiana Lafayette, Buffalo, and New Mexico State have great RPIs but historically have never been included in the tournament as an at large. If Marquette beats Creighton, St John's (in the BET), and loses to Nova their RPI will be in the top 46-48 once you remove those low majors.

That's why I said RPI and the other metrics that show on the team sheets. Those teams have good looking RPIs, but they are exposed by the other metrics. An RPI of 40, but 75 average of all metrics, is a pretty good indicator of a team that won't be getting an at large bid

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think this is going to be a jaw dropping selection Sunday this year.

Like TAMU just said: creigthon has 1 Q1 win. It's a big win, but they have just one!

What is the committee going to value more? RPI and SOS? Q1 and 2 wins? Q 3-4 loses?

As someone else said, mu has some good Q1-2 losses and only one (fuggin DePaul) Q 3-4 loss.

What if the committee values that over RPI or SOS? This could be an interesting selection for that bubble where they take teams with the better Q wins vs RPI&SOS.

Actually I said Creighton has 2 now. They had 1 before beating Nova. But I agree with your general point. I think bracketologists will be historically less accurate this season due to the supposed change in emphasis.

We have a good shot to finish this season with better computer numbers than last season but may still be in the NIT, it's an interesting year

[wisblue]

If Seton Hall is thought that highly of by the committee then MU's sweep over them should look awfully good to, right?

Sure, but that only takes MU so far.

Just like Penn State's sweep over Ohio State.