Bubble Watch 2018

[MuMark]

Couldn't happen to a nicer program........

[MU_Beav]

You aren't kidding...WOW lol

Couldn't have happened to a more deserving program.

[BM1090]

Probably the most brutal, heartbreaking loss I've ever witnessed

[muguru]

Probably the most brutal, heartbreaking loss I've ever witnessed

All Adel had to do was throw it down the court, and as soon as someone touches it the game is over..instead he travels inbounding it, then loses his guy and let's him shoot(and make the game winning 3). Just classic.

[Dish]

I still can't believe that just happened.

[QPSS70]

All Adel had to do was throw it down the court, and as soon as someone touches it the game is over..instead he travels inbounding it, then loses his guy and let's him shoot(and make the game winning 3). Just classic.

Even before that, the guy fouling Jerome on the 3 point shot up 4 with .9 seconds left.   

Then Virginia got a break on the intentionally missed FT that Louisville rebounded. The Virginia guy went crashing the boards early, causing the whistle and the inbound pass instead of the game just ending with the rebound. 

Plus the game losing banked-in 3 pointer.

So many things Louisville fans have to be sick about tonight. 

[mubb3434]

Oregon goes down to Washington State. Safe to assume they are out of NCAA contention now.

[Babybluejeans]

Holy crapola I had assumed Louisville won! What a crazy finish! So does it help them at all that they took the #1 team wire-to-wire?

[forgetful]

Holy crapola I had assumed Louisville won! What a crazy finish! So does it help them at all that they took the #1 team wire-to-wire?

We took Villanova down to the wire this year, and Xavier.  The committee doesn't care about almost.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

On Providence...this is interesting..Providence lost at Xavier and has seen other damage done to its tournament resume. The Friars now have four quadrant 4 losses. One of those is Minnesota, which was at full strength when it beat Providence, so that loss may not be viewed quite as harshly. Even with that, only seven teams in 20 years have received at-large bids with as many as two quadrant four losses. Providence is one of those. The Friars got in last year with two Q4 losses.

I'm pretty sure the Friars only have 3 Quad 4 losses but your point still stands. The have two wins better than almost any other bubble team.....and three worse losses than almost any other bubble team.

They also have the worst KenPom rating of any team currently "in the tournmanet" and the 2nd worst of any team currently on the bubble (Washington's is 94).

Personally, I don't think their resume is worthy....However, I recognize that they had to deal with a lot of injuries and might be a good enough team to be at large worthy...though that argument would hold better if they weren't 2-4 over the last 6....though one of those two wins was a helluva win....

As you can tell from all the elipses....Providence is just an interesting case.

[MU82]

Couldn't have happened to a more deserving program.

Just heard on ESPN:

Louisville continues to vacate wins.

[auburnmarquette]

I just ran RPI forecast on Wisconsin and even if they won the Big Ten Tournament beating the highest possible seed at every step their rpi would only improve to 77. Of course that could be a little off and they could be a couple spots higher to make it a quadrant 1 win for us even in that unlikely scenario. However obviously still wouldn't be worth it since they be stealing a spot.

[UWW2MU]

Probably the most brutal, heartbreaking loss I've ever witnessed

Watching that sequence of events brought back dark memories from January 2015 when a certain small market NFL team fell victim to a similarly epic series of events in the NFC championship game that ultimately doomed their season as well. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/TT.html

This guy only has 4 Big East teams in the tournament. lol.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/TT.html

This guy only has 4 Big East teams in the tournament. lol.

He didn't even put Butler in his next four out

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

He didn't even put Butler in his next four out

Yah...or PC, or MU.  Crazy talk.

[BM1090]

Stewart Mandel and Bracketville both have Marquette in their first four out. Historically 2 of the best projections.

For the link you posted, he doesn't list a first four out. He just lists last four in and others considered in no particular order. Butler, PC and MU are all on that list of 11 teams.

[Windyplayer]

ESPN Bubble Watch:

Bubble Watch hesitates to use the term "one-game season," but the importance of Marquette's season finale at home against Creighton is difficult to overstate. If the Golden Eagles win, they're still alive for an at-large bid (though it will be no sure thing). Lose, and those bid probabilities drop significantly.

They've already beaten the Bluejays in Omaha, and they also boast a season sweep of Seton Hall. Still, to get those boasts heard where they will matter, one last regular-season win will likely be required.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch030218/final-tests-champ-week

Pretty encouraging language.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Stewart Mandel and Bracketville both have Marquette in their first four out. Historically 2 of the best projections.

For the link you posted, he doesn't list a first four out. He just lists last four in and others considered in no particular order. Butler, PC and MU are all on that list of 11 teams.

My bad,  I read last four in as first four out

[MU82]

For all the angst over the DePaul game - most of it well-deserved - the real killer IMHO was not beating Providence on Natl MU Day.  Win that game and we're easily higher than Prov in the pecking order, and we'd have been in for sure by beating Creighton tomorrow. Oh well.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

ESPN Bubble Watch:

Bubble Watch hesitates to use the term "one-game season," but the importance of Marquette's season finale at home against Creighton is difficult to overstate. If the Golden Eagles win, they're still alive for an at-large bid (though it will be no sure thing). Lose, and those bid probabilities drop significantly.

They've already beaten the Bluejays in Omaha, and they also boast a season sweep of Seton Hall. Still, to get those boasts heard where they will matter, one last regular-season win will likely be required.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch030218/final-tests-champ-week

Pretty encouraging language.

I've actually wondered if we can lose our season finale and still make it. I think the one thing our resume lacks is a true "signature" win. Our computer numbers are good. Our Q1 win total is good. Our bad losses are minimal. And our SOS is great. What if we lost to Creighton but then beat DePaul and then beat Villanova? All of the sudden we have a signature win. Does that look better then beating Creighton, beating DePaul,  and losing to Nova? On paper it does. But I wonder if beating Nova in the BET would be less impactful because the committee doesn't weight conference tournament games as heavily.

Either way,  let's just win tomorrow

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

For all the angst over the DePaul game - most of it well-deserved - the real killer IMHO was not beating Providence on Natl MU Day.  Win that game and we're easily higher than Prov in the pecking order, and we'd have been in for sure by beating Creighton tomorrow. Oh well.

Those are the two that hurt. Win both and MU would be a lock.

Georgia would be 3rd. Either home game against Xavier & Nova next.  It also would have been nice if we had a Michigan win instead of LSU (but the LSU win is still better than having a loss to Michigan).

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

My bad,  I read last four in as first four out

Yah, same!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The ones that would be most impactful were the X and Nova games. Either one would have put us in the tournament at this point

[Dr. Blackheart]

I've actually wondered if we can lose our season finale and still make it. I think the one thing our resume lacks is a true "signature" win. Our computer numbers are good. Our Q1 win total is good. Our bad losses are minimal. And our SOS is great. What if we lost to Creighton but then beat DePaul and then beat Villanova? All of the sudden we have a signature win. Does that look better then beating Creighton, beating DePaul,  and losing to Nova? On paper it does. But I wonder if beating Nova in the BET would be less impactful because the committee doesn't weight conference tournament games as heavily.

Either way,  let's just win tomorrow

Here's what would suck about losing to Creighton:  7 home losses.

#justwinbaby