Amazon narrows its list of cities for its second HQ

[Tugg Speedman]

"Well North of 100k" is quite an understatement of the salary required to send multiple kids to a school like Latin.

Nearly 40% of the school is on scholarship.  About 10% pay less than 1,000/year.

That said, you correct... the sticker price is about $35k/year (average of all grades).

[Pakuni]

"Well North of 100k" is quite an understatement of the salary required to send multiple kids to a school like Latin.

Much less afford a home in Lakeview or Lincoln Park that's big enough to raise a family.
Median sale price of a four-bedroom home in Lincoln Park is about $1.5 million. It's a bit less in Lakeview.

[Pakuni]

Nearly 40% of the school is on scholarship.  About 10% pay less than 1,000/year.

That said, you correct... the sticker price is about $35k/year (average of all grades).

Those scholarships aren't going to families earning well north of $100K.

[Tugg Speedman]

This is misleading, though, because these private and charter schools  can pick and chose the kids they want to educate, and therefore can insure that they're only dealing with high-achieving students (and push out the ones who aren't). Hence, really high SAT scores. Public schools - even the Stevensons and New Triers - have to educate every kid in the district, so they've got 'C' students dragging down their average test scores.

I'm not taking anything away from those others schools. They're all excellent and deserving of their reputations. But comparing their SAT/standardized test scores to public schools is not a fair or relevant comparison.

Another point .... indications are that once millennials get married and have kids, they, like previous generations, are moving to the suburbs. Definitely later in life, and perhaps not at quite the same frequency, but they're still doing it. The notion that they're all going to be urban dwellers is vastly overstated. Certainly some will choose to remain in the city into their late 40s and raise high schoolers there (remember ... they're not having kids until their 30+), most will be out in the burbs just like their parents.

https://www.npr.org/2017/09/15/551232392/as-millennials-get-older-many-are-buying-suvs-to-drive-to-their-suburban-homes
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-25/millennials-are-driving-the-suburban-resurgence

Agree about the self-selection of the private and charter schools.  But if you want to send your kid to the best academic school, the private and charter schools are it.

As far as millennial go, I'm referring to those among the 50,000 that Amazon will hire at HQ2 and not the entire cohort.

That why Amazon has cities on their list. Notice that don't have McDonalds Oakbrook campus on their list.

[Tugg Speedman]

Those scholarships aren't going to families earning well north of $100K.

Only if they have three or four kids at the school

[GGGG]

Most millennials are delaying everything.  Getting married later.  Having kids later.

They'll move out to the suburbs later.  But if the housing is cheaper, with a nice yard, and the good schools are public schools instead of the charter and private schools in the city, the vast majority will move and commute like previous generations did.

[LAZER]

Nearly 40% of the school is on scholarship.  About 10% pay less than 1,000/year.

That said, you correct... the sticker price is about $35k/year (average of all grades).

Right, so if you're not willing to drop $20k+ on grade school/high school tuition you're likely to move into a good school district on the North Side for 1-8 grades. Then when your kids get to High School, you hope your kid is in the ~5% accepted into Young, Payton, NCP, Jones, or even Lane.  Combine that with the fact that if your household income is say ~$200k, your socioeconomic situation will work against you in the application process, but you're still not in a great position to afford private schools.

I would agree that the education situation in the city has gotten better, but to reap the benefits of those elite private schools you mention, you'll need to be making the big bucks.

[Pakuni]

That why Amazon has cities on their list. Notice that don't have McDonalds Oakbrook campus on their list.

The Oak Brook site (as well as the former Motorola campus in Schaumburg) are part of the Chicago bid.
I'd be surprised if Amazon chooses those locations even if they settle on Chicago, but they have not been eliminated because they aren't separate from Chicago.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ori/ct-biz-amazon-hq2-sites-unveiled-ryan-ori-20171020-story.html
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ori/ct-amazon-chicago-locations-handicapped-20171020-htmlstory.html

[Chili]

Much less afford a home in Lakeview or Lincoln Park that's big enough to raise a family.
Median sale price of a four-bedroom home in Lincoln Park is about $1.5 million. It's a bit less in Lakeview.

You can find more affordable housing. I am closing Thu on a new construction in Avondale for just over $700 which is doable in Chicago. So long as you are along a transit line you can make good investments.

From what I have heard from people who have talked to the Rahm's office the 3 major players were Chicago, DC & Boston. A big point for all 3 cities is the close proximity to great universities. And by hub airport Amazon needs international. One point Rahm's office made was the same one that was Boeing that you can do flight into & out of Chicago from Seattle in 1 day for meetings where the east coast makes that difficult.

[jesmu84]

You can find more affordable housing. I am closing Thu on a new construction in Avondale for just over $700 which is doable in Chicago. So long as you are along a transit line you can make good investments.

From what I have heard from people who have talked to the Rahm's office the 3 major players were Chicago, DC & Boston. A big point for all 3 cities is the close proximity to great universities. And by hub airport Amazon needs international. One point Rahm's office made was the same one that was Boeing that you can do flight into & out of Chicago from Seattle in 1 day for meetings where the east coast makes that difficult.

Not for a millenial couple making just over 200k with debt + kids

[Pakuni]

You can find more affordable housing. I am closing Thu on a new construction in Avondale for just over $700 which is doable in Chicago. So long as you are along a transit line you can make good investments.

Right, but Heisy specifically mentioned LP and Lakeview, so those were the home prices I mentioned.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I can confirm that most millennials are not making 100k+ salaries at places like google. I'm sure the ones that are love the cities and the $35K a year private schools. The rest of us are getting housing where we can afford it and sending our kids to public schools.

[StillAWarrior]

I can confirm that most millennials are not making 100k+ salaries at places like google. I'm sure the ones that are love the cities and the $35K a year private schools. The rest of us are getting housing where we can afford it and sending our kids to public schools.

The conversation is funny because the figure "100k+" is so ambiguous and includes people in entirely different economic stratospheres.  This would include people making $105k, $250k, $750k, etc.  There is a world of difference between each of these groups.  Absent significant financial aid, someone making $105k can't even remotely afford a $35k/year private school.

[Benny B]

I can confirm that most millennials are not making 100k+ salaries at places like google. I'm sure the ones that are love the cities and the $35K a year private schools. The rest of us are getting housing where we can afford it and sending our kids to public schools.

Bingo.

Aside from the fact that Heisy's vision seems to be deteriorating, compounding the issue of seeing this reality is the height of Heisy's ivory tower.

As a percentage of the respective generational cohorts, more Millennials live in downtown areas than Gen X, but more Millennials desire to live in the suburbs than Gen X.  The only thing that is keeping tens of millions of Millennials from fleeing downtown living is their debt load, which is just beginning to become more manageable for the elder Millennials, and depending on who you listen to, something which the majority of the cohort may see material relief in as little as 3-5 years.  Couple this with the window for self-driving cars to begin their push to ubiquity (the most aggressive which believe this is only 5 years away), and be prepared for an exodus to the 'burbs in the early '20s.

A forward-thinking company such as Amazon has already pondered these facts; I'm pretty sure they've acknowledged it.  They aren't going to be so presumptuous to make a decision based on the stereotypes that "Millennials want to live downtown" when the truth is something much different.

[LAZER]

Bingo.

Aside from the fact that Heisy's vision seems to be deteriorating, compounding the issue of seeing this reality is the height of Heisy's ivory tower.

As a percentage of the respective generational cohorts, more Millennials live in downtown areas than Gen X, but more Millennials desire to live in the suburbs than Gen X.  The only thing that is keeping tens of millions of Millennials from fleeing downtown living is their debt load, which is just beginning to become more manageable for the elder Millennials, and depending on who you listen to, something which the majority of the cohort may see material relief in as little as 3-5 years.  Couple this with the window for self-driving cars to begin their push to ubiquity (the most aggressive which believe this is only 5 years away), and be prepared for an exodus to the 'burbs in the early '20s.

A forward-thinking company such as Amazon has already pondered these facts; I'm pretty sure they've acknowledged it.  They aren't going to be so presumptuous to make a decision based on the stereotypes that "Millennials want to live downtown" when the truth is something much different.

Exactly, and when they're looking at 50k jobs they're going be looking at the larger metro areas for all these cities. Obviously the immediate city is key to attracting young talent, but I imagine access to surrounding suburbs is key for retaining that talent.

[mu03eng]

The conversation is funny because the figure "100k+" is so ambiguous and includes people in entirely different economic stratospheres.  This would include people making $105k, $250k, $750k, etc.  There is a world of difference between each of these groups.  Absent significant financial aid, someone making $105k can't even remotely afford a $35k/year private school.

Also doesn't account for cost of living based on location i.e. $100k spends a lot different in Urban MKE than it does in Urban CHI.

[Cooby Snacks]

Exactly, and when they're looking at 50k jobs they're going be looking at the larger metro areas for all these cities. Obviously the immediate city is key to attracting young talent, but I imagine access to surrounding suburbs is key for retaining that talent.

Right on. For example, Amazon has cobbled together some satellite office space in Bellevue, the big eastside suburb of Seattle. The commute across Lake Washington is a real pain even though it's only a few miles, and suburban-based Microsoft can more easily poach on the convenience factor.

[Herman Cain]

Herm, not quite. My firm moved from Wacker Drive to the Near West Side solely because our CEO thought is would be a good move to attract Millennials (we're three blocks from our old building).  Everything from the interior design to the interior offices is designed to stroke the ego of the Millennial.

They are looking for Millennials, like it or not. Trust me, I could do without a big hunk of 'em (though some are really gifted).

As to a hub airport, Amazon may spark some flights to Seattle, as it did in Milwaukee. But if you want a hub that's truly global, you're probably only considering a half dozen destinations. Of Amazon's group, this would be Newark, Chicago, Atlanta, Washington, Philadelphia and Dallas. No one, and I mean no one, will plunk down a hub in Indianapolis, Nashville or Raleigh given the proximity to Atlanta, Dulles, Chicago or Newark and Philadelphia. Not gonna happen. Airline economics don't work that way.

I recognize some Companies are looking for these millennial people. My company is not because we have customers who depend on us. So we tend to go more for older more responsible individuals. It is hard for someone who has a family depending on them to be flakey.  If there is anything we need hipster status for we contract  it out .  We let the owner of the hipster company be responsible for the deliverable.

I get airline economics as I have flown 5,000,000 miles on various airlines.

Nashville and Raleigh were former American  hubs and Indianapolis has the infrastructure and flight structure to  easily become one  for someone .
http://news.delta.com/tags/indianapolis

At the end of the day whoever gets Amazon will be very happy they got it .

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I get airline economics as I have flown 5,000,000 miles on various airlines.

I eat a lot cheeseburgers. I'm basically a butcher. 

[JWags85]

I recognize some Companies are looking for these millennial people. My company is not because we have customers who depend on us. So we tend to go more for older more responsible individuals. It is hard for someone who has a family depending on them to be flakey.  If there is anything we need hipster status for we contract  it out .  We let the owner of the hipster company be responsible for the deliverable.

"These millennial people"...good grief get over yourself.  I get that its en vogue to blame them for anything and everything when you're older and embrace the narrative that everything was harder in your day, but you realize they aren't some quirky niche demographic.  You just equated hipster and millennial.  And then implied Millenials don't have people that depend on them when its a demographic that encompasses people 30-35 right now.

That whole paragraph reads like a mad lib

[JWags85]

N/A

[Tugg Speedman]

So what I'm reading in everyone's comments is they really do not want to live in the burbs but are forced there becuase they cannot afford the more desirable urban/city area.

But I would argue that, in the end, the housing market is far more efficient than you think.  What you save in money and tuition you give away in quality of life and opportunity (urban dwellers have no restrictions to switching jobs in the city.  Suburban dwellers automatically limit their opportunities to their method of commuting and distance from the city center).

I would argue that millennials making good coin would rather spend it to stay in the city and keep their quality of life as high as possible.  That is why urban areas are doing better than the "inner suburbs" and the outer suburbs are just too limiting.

[LAZER]

So what I'm reading in everyone's comments is they really do not want to live in the burbs but are forced there becuase they cannot afford the more desirable urban/city area.

But I would argue that, in the end, the housing market is far more efficient than you think.  What you save in money and tuition you give away in quality of life and opportunity (urban dwellers have no restrictions to switching jobs in the city.  Suburban dwellers automatically limit their opportunities to their method of commuting and distance from the city center).

I would argue that millennials making good coin would rather spend it to stay in the city and keep their quality of life as high as possible.  That is why urban areas are doing better than the "inner suburbs" and the outer suburbs are just too limiting.

Job opportunities can actually be better in the suburbs than the city with access to good commuter rail. And quality of life is relative to where you are in life.  For a lot of people they get the most out of city living (entertainment, dining culture etc) but they get to a point where quality of life is more about getting your kids to and from school and soccer practice than it is about going to a hot restaurant or a concert.

[dgies9156]

I recognize some Companies are looking for these millennial people. My company is not because we have customers who depend on us. So we tend to go more for older more responsible individuals. It is hard for someone who has a family depending on them to be flakey.  If there is anything we need hipster status for we contract  it out .  We let the owner of the hipster company be responsible for the deliverable.

I get airline economics as I have flown 5,000,000 miles on various airlines.

Nashville and Raleigh were former American  hubs.

We see how well American liked those hubs, though I suspect they may be having some heartburn over surrendering Nashville to Southwest.

I'm about half your number of miles. 1.4 million on one airline

[Tugg Speedman]

Job opportunities can actually be better in the suburbs than the city with access to good commuter rail. And quality of life is relative to where you are in life.  For a lot of people they get the most out of city living (entertainment, dining culture etc) but they get to a point where quality of life is more about getting your kids to and from school and soccer practice than it is about going to a hot restaurant or a concert.

Sounds like your trying to convince yourself moving to the burbs was a good idea.