It only gets worse for Bucky

[Dawson Rental]

I agree with this, and this is why I asked the pseudo serious question about when this ceases to be funny. It's no fun for your rival to be beaten down for a long period of time. That said, this year is good for my soul.

Agreed see DePaul.

[Dawson Rental]

I still think AAU is one of the worst things to happen to high school basketball.

But, one of the best things to happen to college basketball.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

6-5 to even have a mathematical shot after Illinois win last night. Pencil in four losses to Purdue, Michigan State twice and at Maryland. Even if would pull one upset in that group of four, would have to go 5-2 in the rest of them, and that includes 3 road games and home games with Michigan, Nebraska and Minnesota. Penciled in a home win at against Northwestern, which is probably a touch generous. 3-3 much more likely than 4-2 in that group of 6. Some shot, but I'd say about a 1 in 5 shot at best.

Was bored and actually ran the numbers. They are currently projected to finish 13-18 with wins at home against Nebraska, Northwestern, and Minnesota (how far those last two have fallen!). To even be eligible they have to finish 6-5 (barring a run in the B1G tournament). Those three extra wins would likely have to come @Iowa, @Illinois, and home vs. Michigan. That would give them an RPI of 95 and SOS of 46. You are not making the NIT with that. Throw in a win @Northwestern and you get to 80 RPI and 46 SOS. Possible NIT but still wouldn't be confident. It would take one more win which would probably have to be at Maryland which would give an RPI of 70 and SOS of 46 to feel confident about the NIT.

So basically, Wisconsin has to go 8-0 against all teams not named Purdue and Michigan State to feel confident about their NIT chances. 7-1 to have a chance. Maybe they can try for the Vegas 16?

[brewcity77]

Was bored and actually ran the numbers. They are currently projected to finish 13-18 with wins at home against Nebraska, Northwestern, and Minnesota (how far those last two have fallen!). To even be eligible they have to finish 6-5 (barring a run in the B1G tournament). Those three extra wins would likely have to come @Iowa, @Illinois, and home vs. Michigan. That would give them an RPI of 95 and SOS of 46. You are not making the NIT with that. Throw in a win @Northwestern and you get to 80 RPI and 46 SOS. Possible NIT but still wouldn't be confident. It would take one more win which would probably have to be at Maryland which would give an RPI of 70 and SOS of 46 to feel confident about the NIT.

So basically, Wisconsin has to go 8-0 against all teams not named Purdue and Michigan State to feel confident about their NIT chances. 7-1 to have a chance. Maybe they can try for the Vegas 16?

I think if they get to 17 wins, they get to the NIT. If they go 18-13 (11-7) while also winning 9 of their last 12 with the three losses coming to teams on the top two seed lines they just might get into the NCAA. Probably as one of the First Four, but look at the rest of the resume. The only Quadrant 3 loss is Rutgers, which was on the road. Here's how they break down under that scenario by quadrant:

Quadrant 1: 1-8
Quadrant 2: 4-4
Quadrant 3: 7-1
Quadrant 4: 6-0

The Rutgers loss looks bad, but the Maryland win would probably offset that. Held their own against Quadrant 2. In a weak bubble year (and face it, every year recently is a weak bubble year) and with more than half of their losses coming in Q1/Q2 games before the calendar turned to January, they'd have a case for the First Four.

If Wisconsin gets to 16 wins, that may be enough for the NIT. 17 would guarantee a NIT spot. 18 would have them getting serious NCAA consideration.

Another consideration is the Big 10 Tournament being played a week early. I've long felt that conference tournaments have little bearing on the Selection Committee because there are too many moving parts in those final days to really accurately assess them. That may not be the case with the B10 Tourney which will be decided before the Selection Committee sits down to discuss and start voting.

If they won a game or two at MSG, especially considering a 4/5 seed possibility (if we assume 11-7) would possibly give them a shot to make amends on the Rutgers loss and get a shot at a neutral court Quadrant 1 game with Michigan, I think Bucky would be back in the Dance.

At that point, I'd expect another stupidly improbable Sweet Sixteen run when they end up in a bracket with a wildly inconsistent 11-seed play-in game against Syracuse, an inept defensive 6-seed like Arizona State, and an inexperienced tournament 3-seed like Clemson (or more likely, a 14-seed that spent all their energy upsetting a 3-seed like Clemson).

[LoudMouth]

At that point, I'd expect another stupidly improbable Sweet Sixteen run when they end up in a bracket with a wildly inconsistent 11-seed play-in game against Syracuse, an inept defensive 6-seed like Arizona State, and an inexperienced tournament 3-seed like Clemson (or more likely, a 14-seed that spent all their energy upsetting a 3-seed like Clemson).

Scary because it is so plausible.  It is similar to Brady being down late in a game and still knowing that he will win.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

You guys are putting wayyyyyyyyy too much thought into this.  Who cares?

[forgetful]

I think if they get to 17 wins, they get to the NIT. If they go 18-13 (11-7) while also winning 9 of their last 12 with the three losses coming to teams on the top two seed lines they just might get into the NCAA. Probably as one of the First Four, but look at the rest of the resume. The only Quadrant 3 loss is Rutgers, which was on the road. Here's how they break down under that scenario by quadrant:

Quadrant 1: 1-8
Quadrant 2: 4-4
Quadrant 3: 7-1
Quadrant 4: 6-0

11-7 in what is considered a very bad B10 this year does not get them in.  My guess is that at 18-13, their RPI would still likely be above 70.  And the 18-13 record is exceedingly unlikely, and would require two wins against @ Michigan St, @ Maryland, Michigan St., Michigan, and Purdue.  They'll be lucky to win 1 of them, and even then expect them to lose one or more additional games.

[MU82]

You guys are putting wayyyyyyyyy too much thought into this.  Who cares?

This.

Buck F%cky!

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

11-7 in what is considered a very bad B10 this year does not get them in.  My guess is that at 18-13, their RPI would still likely be above 70.  And the 18-13 record is exceedingly unlikely, and would require two wins against @ Michigan St, @ Maryland, Michigan St., Michigan, and Purdue.  They'll be lucky to win 1 of them, and even then expect them to lose one or more additional games.

RPI Forecast predicts 18-13 would give the Badgers an RPI of 70.  A run in the B1G tournament could get them in but I agree that 18-13 looks unlikely.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think if they get to 17 wins, they get to the NIT. If they go 18-13 (11-7) while also winning 9 of their last 12 with the three losses coming to teams on the top two seed lines they just might get into the NCAA. Probably as one of the First Four, but look at the rest of the resume. The only Quadrant 3 loss is Rutgers, which was on the road. Here's how they break down under that scenario by quadrant:

Quadrant 1: 1-8
Quadrant 2: 4-4
Quadrant 3: 7-1
Quadrant 4: 6-0

The Rutgers loss looks bad, but the Maryland win would probably offset that. Held their own against Quadrant 2. In a weak bubble year (and face it, every year recently is a weak bubble year) and with more than half of their losses coming in Q1/Q2 games before the calendar turned to January, they'd have a case for the First Four.

If Wisconsin gets to 16 wins, that may be enough for the NIT. 17 would guarantee a NIT spot. 18 would have them getting serious NCAA consideration.

Another consideration is the Big 10 Tournament being played a week early. I've long felt that conference tournaments have little bearing on the Selection Committee because there are too many moving parts in those final days to really accurately assess them. That may not be the case with the B10 Tourney which will be decided before the Selection Committee sits down to discuss and start voting.

If they won a game or two at MSG, especially considering a 4/5 seed possibility (if we assume 11-7) would possibly give them a shot to make amends on the Rutgers loss and get a shot at a neutral court Quadrant 1 game with Michigan, I think Bucky would be back in the Dance.

At that point, I'd expect another stupidly improbable Sweet Sixteen run when they end up in a bracket with a wildly inconsistent 11-seed play-in game against Syracuse, an inept defensive 6-seed like Arizona State, and an inexperienced tournament 3-seed like Clemson (or more likely, a 14-seed that spent all their energy upsetting a 3-seed like Clemson).

All reasonable points except for the bolded. 16 wins means they are left out of the NIT. No way no how they get in. Now if they get 16 regular season wins and make noise in the B1G tourney, that's different. But no way a 16-16 Badger squad gets in the NIT, they would have a triple digit RPI. 17 wins is also far from a guarentee. It gives them a shot but I think we forget how hard to make the NIT is. It such a narrow window that a lot of teams are competing for. Unless mid-major regular season champions have a near perfect year in their conference tournaments, I would be nervous at 17-15.

[brewcity77]

11-7 in what is considered a very bad B10 this year does not get them in.  My guess is that at 18-13, their RPI would still likely be above 70.  And the 18-13 record is exceedingly unlikely, and would require two wins against @ Michigan St, @ Maryland, Michigan St., Michigan, and Purdue.  They'll be lucky to win 1 of them, and even then expect them to lose one or more additional games.

I definitely think it's unlikely. I think it's more likely they end up winning 15 or 16 games and hoping on a NIT berth. But if Wisconsin gets to 11-7, I think they get in. I don't think that's the case for other Big 10 teams like Nebraska or Indiana, but I think the Big 10 looks like a 4.5 bid league this year. If that team in 5th place is Maryland, Wisconsin, Northwestern, or Minnesota, they have a shot at getting in. If it's Indiana, Nebraska, or Penn State, they don't.

[wadesworld]

Wait, people are talking about what it would take for UW to get into the NCAA Tournament? Has nobody watched them?

Can they add Frank Kaminski, Bronson Koenig, and Sam Dekker today? If not, they have a 0.00% chance to make the NCAA Tournament. They are an awful college basketball team.

[brewcity77]

Wait, people are talking about what it would take for UW to get into the NCAA Tournament? Has nobody watched them?

They probably won't, but we were thinking the same thing in mid-January 2016 when they were 9-9 (1-4). Then they went 11-3 down the stretch before knocking off Xavier to reach the Sweet 16.

It's unlikely, but the Big 10 is awful this year. Purdue and Michigan State are the only two really good teams left on their schedule. I've watched this movie too many times not to know that the seemingly dead Badger has a tendency to get up off the pavement and come back to murder someone from the Big East in March (Xavier in 2016, Villanova in 2017). The Badgers winning out other than Purdue and MSU is certainly possible in that league. Until they get to 15 losses and are eliminated from the B10 Tournament, I won't fully rule them out as dead.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Wait, people are talking about what it would take for UW to get into the NCAA Tournament? Has nobody watched them?

Can they add Frank Kaminski, Bronson Koenig, and Sam Dekker today? If not, they have a 0.00% chance to make the NCAA Tournament. They are an awful college basketball team.

Unfortunately the B1G is really bad. With the right draw and upsets, Wisconsin could get the B1G auto-bid. There season could just as easily end Feb 28.

Since I live in Madison and have several friends that are Badger fans, I admit that I give the Badgers more thought than I probably should.

[mileskishnish72]

Was thinking this thread was crazy, especially after reading about the quadrants.
Wanted to say give it a break but JJJJJ said it well.

[Earl Tatum]

Agree with MU82

[GooooMarquette]

You guys are putting wayyyyyyyyy too much thought into this.  Who cares?

+1

And ND sucks.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I definitely think it's unlikely. I think it's more likely they end up winning 15 or 16 games and hoping on a NIT berth. But if Wisconsin gets to 11-7, I think they get in. I don't think that's the case for other Big 10 teams like Nebraska or Indiana, but I think the Big 10 looks like a 4.5 bid league this year. If that team in 5th place is Maryland, Wisconsin, Northwestern, or Minnesota, they have a shot at getting in. If it's Indiana, Nebraska, or Penn State, they don't.

I think Nebraska would have a shot at one of the last few bids if they get to 11-7.  Haven't run the numbers to back that up, but they're a pretty solid team and they don't have any bad losses.  I don't believe a 10 win B10 team has ever missed the dance.  That very well may change this year, but I think 11-7 gets Nebraska and Maryland in. 

[forgetful]

I think Nebraska would have a shot at one of the last few bids if they get to 11-7.  Haven't run the numbers to back that up, but they're a pretty solid team and they don't have any bad losses.  I don't believe a 10 win B10 team has ever missed the dance.  That very well may change this year, but I think 11-7 gets Nebraska and Maryland in.

Losses @ St. Johns, and vs. UCF may not be bad right now RPI wise, but they will be bad losses at the end of the year.  The loss @ Penn. St. is also bad.  They also do not have particularly strong wins or strength of schedule (non-conference SOS of 241).  Nebraska isn't getting in with an 11-7 conference record. 

11-7 gets Maryland and Michigan in.  Not sure any other of the remaining B10 teams get in with that.  Too weak of a conference this year, and marquee out of conference wins are just not there. 

B10 invites seem almost certain to go to:  Purdue, Mich. St., Mich., Ohio State, and Maryland.  Don't think anyone else really has much of a shot.  The conference is too weak.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Losses @ St. Johns, and vs. UCF may not be bad right now RPI wise, but they will be bad losses at the end of the year.  The loss @ Penn. St. is also bad.  They also do not have particularly strong wins or strength of schedule (non-conference SOS of 241).  Nebraska isn't getting in with an 11-7 conference record. 

11-7 gets Maryland and Michigan in.  Not sure any other of the remaining B10 teams get in with that.  Too weak of a conference this year, and marquee out of conference wins are just not there. 

B10 invites seem almost certain to go to:  Purdue, Mich. St., Mich., Ohio State, and Maryland.  Don't think anyone else really has much of a shot.  The conference is too weak.

Ehhh.  Losing to SJU with Lovett isn't a bad loss.  UCF is a fine team, and losing on the road to a decent PSU team isn't a death kneel.  The Gophers tanking certainly doesn't help their best win, but also beating Michigan was a decent W.  Their issues is other than those 2 wins, the resume is weak. Nebraska got pretty soft mirror games, so it may take them 12 B10 Ws as 11-7 would include 4 more loses against (best case) @OSU, @MN, @WISC and vs Maryland.  Other than those 4 games, the remainder of their B10 schedule is soft as Charmin.

I guess I will just have to see it believe it with the committee not respecting an 11-7 B10 team.  I don't necessarily think they'll deserve to get in with that resume, but I wouldn't be totally shocked either way. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

At the moment, finishing 11-7 in conference would net Nebraska an RPI of 71 and a SOS of 98. That ain't getting you into the tournament. Maybe if they make some noise in the B1G tourney. NOTE: Despite this simulation making them go 7-4 in their remaining games, they actually lose 7 points in RPI and only gain 5 points in SOS. That's right. Winning in the B1G actually makes their RPI worse and only improves their SOS by 5 points.

Fun fact that I learned while looking this up. The B1G currently only has 2 teams in the top 30 for RPI (Purdue and Ohio State). Only 2 more in the top 40 (Michigan and Michigan State). Only 1 more in the top 60 (Maryland). And only 2 more in the top 100 (Minnesota and Nebraska). Half their teams currently fall outside the top 100. Hard to make up ground in conference season when there aren't many good teams to play.

#midmajor 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

At the moment, finishing 11-7 in conference would net Nebraska an RPI of 71 and a SOS of 98. That ain't getting you into the tournament. Maybe if they make some noise in the B1G tourney. NOTE: Despite this simulation making them go 7-4 in their remaining games, they actually lose 7 points in RPI and only gain 5 points in SOS. That's right. Winning in the B1G actually makes their RPI worse and only improves their SOS by 5 points.

Fun fact that I learned while looking this up. The B1G currently only has 2 teams in the top 30 for RPI (Purdue and Ohio State). Only 2 more in the top 40 (Michigan and Michigan State). Only 1 more in the top 60 (Maryland). And only 2 more in the top 100 (Minnesota and Nebraska). Half their teams currently fall outside the top 100. Hard to make up ground in conference season when there aren't many good teams to play.

#midmajor 

I think there is a legitimate arrangement that the B10 is the 7th best conference this season after:

1) B12
2) Big East
3) ACC
4) SEC
5) P12 (I think I could argue AAC 5th, but man the bottom of that conference is dreadful)
6) AAC
7) B10

[CreightonWarrior]

Nebraska sucks.

[brewcity77]

I think Nebraska would have a shot at one of the last few bids if they get to 11-7.  Haven't run the numbers to back that up, but they're a pretty solid team and they don't have any bad losses.  I don't believe a 10 win B10 team has ever missed the dance.  That very well may change this year, but I think 11-7 gets Nebraska and Maryland in.

I ran the numbers the other day. I think Nebraska is out at 11-7, on the bubble at 12-6, and in at 13-5. The Big 10 being so bad won't do their teams any favors.

[rocky_warrior]

One thing is clear.  We, as a fanbase, totally lose our minds with 9 days off!