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Author Topic: Bitcoin  (Read 65126 times)

mu03eng

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #50 on: December 07, 2017, 10:42:06 PM »
The cryptocurrencies will last right up until quantum computing becomes a thing then it'll all go away.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

MU82

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #51 on: December 07, 2017, 11:32:11 PM »
Happy for all the speculators doing well. I am enjoying it from the sidelines.  The US government will be collecting tax dollars from the trading profits. When peoples tax bills come due i, will be interesting to see the price action in response to liquidations.

In the meantime I am quietly depositing my US Dollar denominated dividend checks.

Dividends also get taxed.

And having so much money that I have a large tax bill would be a pleasant problem to have. Then I could call myself a job creator and reap the rewards of the new tax cut for billionaires!
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

Hards Alumni

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #52 on: December 08, 2017, 05:20:17 AM »
Oh yes you can day trade bitcoin!!  You can on Gdax, the largest and most important exchange, run by coinbase.

If you are not familiar with coinbase, today's New York Times had a fascinating profile of them (Coinbase runs Gdax, their institutional cryptocurrency exchange.  Coinbase is the retail exchange)

Coinbase: The Heart of the Bitcoin Frenzy
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/technology/coinbase-bitcoin.html?_r=0

In fact, most of the trading is day trading.  And like most day trading, very little of it is done by humans.  Gdax has a API (application programming interface) that you can connect your computer directly to the exchange.

If you know about this stuff, it is very easy.  You can run it from a laptop on a Starbucks connection (I'm guilty of exactly this)

https://github.com/topics/gdax-api

But there are delivery times on the transactions.... So, no not really.  You can buy, then wait a week for delivery, then turn around and sell it... but you can't buy then sell them in the same day.

https://support.coinbase.com/customer/portal/articles/1392022-why-does-a-buy-take-so-long

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #53 on: December 08, 2017, 06:51:26 AM »
But there are delivery times on the transactions.... So, no not really.  You can buy, then wait a week for delivery, then turn around and sell it... but you can't buy then sell them in the same day.

https://support.coinbase.com/customer/portal/articles/1392022-why-does-a-buy-take-so-long

What you say is true on coinbase, but Not on Gdax, settlement is instantaneous and their is no transaction fee (as long as you are a market-maker and submit limit orders).

If you have a coinbase account, your credentials work on Gdax, you can transfer your money and coins instantly and without a fee.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #54 on: December 08, 2017, 06:54:35 AM »
What you say is true on coinbase, but Not on Gdax, settlement is instantaneous and their is no transaction fee (as long as you are a market-maker and submit limit orders).

If you have a coinbase account, your credentials work on Gdax, you can transfer your money and coins instantly and without a fee.

Ah, gotcha.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #55 on: December 08, 2017, 07:27:51 AM »
Ah, gotcha.

Coinbase owns Gdax which is why coinbase credentials work on gdax.

Gdax = Global Digital Asset Exchange

Gdax is the institutional trading arm.  Coinbase is the retail trading arm.  No minimums or special requirements to use Gdax over coinbase.  Just log-in and transfer money over. 

GooooMarquette

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #56 on: December 08, 2017, 07:58:19 AM »
Bitcoin hit $17,000 early this morning, then plunged over $3000.

Crazy roller coaster....

mu_hilltopper

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Goose

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #58 on: December 08, 2017, 09:29:35 AM »
MU82

I tend to agree with you on not having regrets on not joining the Bitcoin mania, regardless of where it ends up. I do not have enough understanding of Bitcoin and am skeptical of what the future will bring to Bitcoin. I do believe it could be for real, but not enough to risk money investing. That said, I think a year from now millions of people will have regrets for either investing or not investing in Bitcoin. I will sit on the sidelines and enjoy the entertainment factor and hope my kids make some dough. Who knows, maybe they might pop for a beer for the old man at MU game one of these days!!

MU82

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #59 on: December 08, 2017, 09:39:04 AM »
MU82

I tend to agree with you on not having regrets on not joining the Bitcoin mania, regardless of where it ends up. I do not have enough understanding of Bitcoin and am skeptical of what the future will bring to Bitcoin. I do believe it could be for real, but not enough to risk money investing. That said, I think a year from now millions of people will have regrets for either investing or not investing in Bitcoin. I will sit on the sidelines and enjoy the entertainment factor and hope my kids make some dough. Who knows, maybe they might pop for a beer for the old man at MU game one of these days!!

Yep yep, Goose.

Bitcoin came up at my monthly poker game last night, too.

It is water-cooler talk the same way dot-com stocks were water-cooler talk in 1999 and 2000 and the same way "you can't go wrong with real estate" was water-cooler talk in 2005 and 2006.

Not saying bitcoin will meet the same fate. Just saying it's not for "boring" investors like me.
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

Goose

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #60 on: December 08, 2017, 09:45:30 AM »
MU82

One big similarity to the dot.com mania is the use of message boards. Back in the day, I had a couple friends turn roughly 10k into a million off idiotic $1.00 dot com stocks based off false message board posts feeding the mania. I believe this is the dot.com on steroids. By the way, my friends made some real coin, but not the million they had made quickly.

Hope you won some dough at poker last night.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #61 on: December 08, 2017, 10:20:58 AM »
I think what you don't appreciate is how worldwide this is and how far behind the world the US is.

70% of cryptocurrency trading is from Asia.  The US is a small player.

the total size of all cryptocurrencies is $426 billion, $268 billion is bitcoin.

------------------------------

This is a worldwide phenomenon on a massive scale that is beginning of rival the traditional financial markets.  The US regulators like the IRS cannot touch most of the players.

If anything, Americans are lagging way behind the rest of the world in embracing bitcoin. 

An analogy of mobile phones has been cited. 

The US had 100% penetration of landlines.  So when mobile phones came on the scene, American initially saw them as playthings for the rich and not really necessary.  They already access to telephones and a pay phone was on every corner.

The rest of the world and especially underdeveloped countries that lacked landlines saw them as a godsend and quickly jumped to adopt them.  Even today countries like Kenya. China and Indonesia have more developed mobile phone networks and deeper mobile phone penetration than the US. 

Likewise with cryptocurrencies.  Americans have enjoyed the US dollar as the reserve currency of the world.  That gives them an advantage that rest of the world does not have.  So they are skeptical and outwardly saying they are not interested.   But for the rest of the world that has financial fears and volatility that Americans do not experience, cryptocurrencies are viewed very differently.

The fear is like mobile phones, the US will be relatively left behind.


forgetful

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #62 on: December 08, 2017, 11:14:19 AM »
Bitcoin hit $17,000 early this morning, then plunged over $3000.

Crazy roller coaster....

It is a bubble that has to burst soon.  If the market for bitcoin expands as it has recently, the energy requirements to process bitcoins will reach the entire size of the US by late next year.  Think about that...it would take all the energy usage in the entire US to support the bitcoin market for a year (by late next year).

That is not sustainable, and means that the market cannot continue to grow as it is currently.  When it fails to grow/provide large yields the market will crash.

Goose

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #63 on: December 08, 2017, 11:21:08 AM »
Jigawatts

Point on the Asian influence on Bitcoin is spot on. They will be the driving force IMO over the upcoming months. They have a ton of money and many would like to move outside of their home country, notably China. That is one reason why I believe there is staying power in the short term.

MU82

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #64 on: December 08, 2017, 11:54:36 AM »
MU82

One big similarity to the dot.com mania is the use of message boards. Back in the day, I had a couple friends turn roughly 10k into a million off idiotic $1.00 dot com stocks based off false message board posts feeding the mania. I believe this is the dot.com on steroids. By the way, my friends made some real coin, but not the million they had made quickly.

Hope you won some dough at poker last night.

I ended up down 75 cents!

It's a very low-stakes group that likes to play crazy games filled with wild cards. Just a social group, an excuse for a bunch of guys to get together. 75 cents for 4 hours of male bonding was well worth it.

I play in another group about once a month that is more serious. We play Hold 'em, either tournaments, cash games or both. Poker-wise, I prefer that; camaraderie-wise, I prefer the wild-card guys.
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #65 on: December 08, 2017, 12:04:25 PM »
It is a bubble that has to burst soon.  If the market for bitcoin expands as it has recently, the energy requirements to process bitcoins will reach the entire size of the US by late next year.  Think about that...it would take all the energy usage in the entire US to support the bitcoin market for a year (by late next year).

That is not sustainable, and means that the market cannot continue to grow as it is currently.  When it fails to grow/provide large yields the market will crash.

Clarification

bitcoin mining does use an insane amount of electricity, not bitcoin trading.  Watching porn video uses way more electricity than bitcoin trading.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/bitcoin-uses-more-energy-than-ireland

The reason is the price at $16,000 makes it economically variable.  There are 4 million coins to be mined, and their value at current prices is $70 billion.  That is more than Ireland spends on electricity!

 Once it is no longer viable, the consumption of electricity will reverse.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #66 on: December 08, 2017, 12:17:45 PM »
Jigawatts

Point on the Asian influence on Bitcoin is spot on. They will be the driving force IMO over the upcoming months. They have a ton of money and many would like to move outside of their home country, notably China. That is one reason why I believe there is staying power in the short term.

The biggest reason it has staying power is the only seller is an existing coin holder cashing out.  You cannot spend them (not enough to matter) and you cannot short them (you can starting Sunday with the futures contract beginning at the CBOE but that will not reach a material size for many months, if ever).  So, for now, it has no natural sellers.

The only reason for it go down is a major hack that scares the bejeezus out of everyone and they rush to get out.  That is a risk but has not happened (save the isolated episodes of bit players here and there).

Another reason is a "fork" (google bitcoin fork definition).

A third reason is a system error.  I think that is what inspired the correction off of $19,000  .... when Gdax and other exchanges went down.  But this outage is over and the buyers will return ... Monday after the futures is shown not be the silver bullet that will kill bitcoin.

Again, I think this is very speculative and has a chance of failing.  But it also has a real chance of being the biggest disruption since the internet itself ... if it becomes accepted, it will change banking and taxing forever.

And it is precisely because it is unregulated that it is so popular.  No bankers going to jail and years of 0% (or negative) interest rates fostered the feeling of screwing regular people.  So we have a populist movement in politics WORLDWIDE (the populist movement was way larger than Trump) and now we have the emergence of the populist currency (especially out of Asia where communist control in China, and heavy taxes and regulation elsewhere is motivating people to look for alternatives).

ADDED

And it cannot be regulated out of existence.

China banned it in January and that has not stopped huge trading out of China.

As I linked above South Korea is about to ban it, yet South Koreans are buying record amounts today.  They are not afraid of the ban.

Russia is looking at clamping down, but that will stop nothing.

If it can be regulated out of business, then so can child porn.  The reason we cannot get rid of child porn is no one person or group can control the internet.  And since they cannot, all the government bans in the world will not stop it.  If people anyway from governments want to accept it, then they have two choices, join the new world, or fall.

Like I said, if it gets accepted, it represents the biggest disruption since the internet itself.
« Last Edit: December 08, 2017, 12:29:27 PM by 1.21 Jigawatts »

Benny B

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #67 on: December 08, 2017, 12:56:20 PM »
The biggest reason it has staying power is the only seller is an existing coin holder cashing out.  You cannot spend them (not enough to matter) and you cannot short them (you can starting Sunday with the futures contract beginning at the CBOE but that will not reach a material size for many months, if ever).  So, for now, it has no natural sellers.

The only reason for it go down is a major hack that scares the bejeezus out of everyone and they rush to get out.  That is a risk but has not happened (save the isolated episodes of bit players here and there).

Another reason is a "fork" (google bitcoin fork definition).

A third reason is a system error.  I think that is what inspired the correction off of $19,000  .... when Gdax and other exchanges went down.  But this outage is over and the buyers will return ... Monday after the futures is shown not be the silver bullet that will kill bitcoin.

Again, I think this is very speculative and has a chance of failing.  But it also has a real chance of being the biggest disruption since the internet itself ... if it becomes accepted, it will change banking and taxing forever.

And it is precisely because it is unregulated that it is so popular.  No bankers going to jail and years of 0% (or negative) interest rates fostered the feeling of screwing regular people.  So we have a populist movement in politics WORLDWIDE (the populist movement was way larger than Trump) and now we have the emergence of the populist currency (especially out of Asia where communist control in China, and heavy taxes and regulation elsewhere is motivating people to look for alternatives).

ADDED

And it cannot be regulated out of existence.

China banned it in January and that has not stopped huge trading out of China.

As I linked above South Korea is about to ban it, yet South Koreans are buying record amounts today.  They are not afraid of the ban.

Russia is looking at clamping down, but that will stop nothing.

If it can be regulated out of business, then so can child porn.  The reason we cannot get rid of child porn is no one person or group can control the internet.  And since they cannot, all the government bans in the world will not stop it.  If people anyway from governments want to accept it, then they have two choices, join the new world, or fall.

Like I said, if it gets accepted, it represents the biggest disruption since the internet itself.

While we may never get rid of child porn, we can make life very, very difficult for those who get involved.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Eldon

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #68 on: December 08, 2017, 01:09:14 PM »
Heisy,

I'm curious to hear your thoughts. 

How is Bitcoin different from gold?  Hear me out.  The whole appeal of Bitcoin is that it is completely decentralized and its supply grows at a diminishing rate.  That sounds a lot like gold to me.  How so?  Gold is mined by the private sector and it is discovered at a diminishing rate.

My off-the-cuff reaction to Bitcoin is that it is a modern day, electronic version of the gold standard.

Personally, I'm not high on Bitcoin.  I think its long-term prospects are dismal.  If gold (or rather, a weighted basket of precious metals) can't supplant government-issued currency, then nothing can. 

Convince me otherwise.

Benny B

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #69 on: December 08, 2017, 03:01:31 PM »
Gold has utility, i.e. value, beyond that of a simple commodity:

1. Jewelry
2. Electrical circuits
3. Liquor
4. University mascot

Bitcoin has absolutely no redeeming qualities whatsoever.

Also:

A) Gold is tangible
B) Gold cannot be "lost" (in the sense that it disappears, not just that someone misplaces it)
C) Gold's ownership is defined by possession, i.e. you can't duplicate a bar of gold, claiming it as your own and rendering the original bar worthless
D) Gold isn't the creation of an anonymous human with free will
E) The rules of what constitutes gold (79 protons, 118 neutrons) do not change or "fork"
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

rocket ALM surgeon

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #70 on: December 08, 2017, 03:24:47 PM »
village of nashotah had their computers hacked and ALL their data stolen and/or held hostage for 2.000 bitcoin.  once it(2.000 bitcoin) was sent overseas to some defined account, they gave back ALL of their data.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/communities/lake-country/news/nashotah/2017/12/08/after-computer-hack-nashotah-pays-2-k-ransom-residents-personal-information/931996001/

point of my story was that bitcoin was demanded for ransom as it is non-traceable and it was sent overseas where heisy correctly stated, it is more popular

   
'Hey pal, it's the big guy, nothing urgent, article to be printed tomorrow...bwhahahaha, umm, you're all good, plausible deniability baby, but where's my cheese man

Eldon

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #71 on: December 08, 2017, 03:37:56 PM »
Gold has utility, i.e. value, beyond that of a simple commodity:

1. Jewelry
2. Electrical circuits
3. Liquor
4. University mascot

Bitcoin has absolutely no redeeming qualities whatsoever.

Also:

A) Gold is tangible
B) Gold cannot be "lost" (in the sense that it disappears, not just that someone misplaces it)
C) Gold's ownership is defined by possession, i.e. you can't duplicate a bar of gold, claiming it as your own and rendering the original bar worthless
D) Gold isn't the creation of an anonymous human with free will
E) The rules of what constitutes gold (79 protons, 118 neutrons) do not change or "fork"

LMAO.  Very well played.

By equating Bitcoin to gold I was being charitable to Bitcoin.  All of your points are partly why I am pessimistic about Bitcoin's long-term viability, at least with respect to causing concern for policymakers and central bankers.

forgetful

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #72 on: December 08, 2017, 04:57:36 PM »
Clarification

bitcoin mining does use an insane amount of electricity, not bitcoin trading.  Watching porn video uses way more electricity than bitcoin trading.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/bitcoin-uses-more-energy-than-ireland

The reason is the price at $16,000 makes it economically variable.  There are 4 million coins to be mined, and their value at current prices is $70 billion.  That is more than Ireland spends on electricity!

 Once it is no longer viable, the consumption of electricity will reverse.

I trust you are right, but could you provide more info on how bitcoin trading and mining differ, and if they are not the same, why as bitcoin value goes up there is a corresponding increase in energy usage? 

Just trying to learn.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #73 on: December 08, 2017, 06:23:56 PM »
Heisy,

I'm curious to hear your thoughts. 

How is Bitcoin different from gold?  Hear me out.  The whole appeal of Bitcoin is that it is completely decentralized and its supply grows at a diminishing rate.  That sounds a lot like gold to me.  How so?  Gold is mined by the private sector and it is discovered at a diminishing rate.

My off-the-cuff reaction to Bitcoin is that it is a modern day, electronic version of the gold standard.

Personally, I'm not high on Bitcoin.  I think its long-term prospects are dismal.  If gold (or rather, a weighted basket of precious metals) can't supplant government-issued currency, then nothing can. 

Convince me otherwise.

Don't need to convince you otherwise.  You have it correct.

Bitcoin is designed to mimic gold, a store of value.  That's why they even call acquiring new coins (or tokens) "mining" as it supposed to be like gold.

There are 1,344 cryptocurrencies.  17 have a market cap of over $1 billion.

Ethereum is considered the crypto best positioned to replace currencies.  bitcoin replaces gold.

I trust you are right, but could you provide more info on how bitcoin trading and mining differ, and if they are not the same, why as Bitcoin value goes up there is a corresponding increase in energy usage? 

Just trying to learn.

When bitcoin was created in the original (first) blockchain in 2009, it contained 21 million coins.  How does one get a coin?  Two ways.  One can "mine" a coin.  How?  You download and run an algo on your computer and when it finishes, you get a coin.  But the next coin requires a slightly longer and more complicated algo.  Currently, 16.8 million of the 21 million coins have been mined.   Now the algo is very long and overly complicated.  You need serious hardware and a lot of power.  Once the 21millionth coin is mined, that is all there is.

Another way is to buy one on an exchange.  Dozens of them exist and Gdax is the largest in the US (it's not even in the top 6 worldwide).  70% of the trading and all the big exchanges are in Asia.


Bitcoin has absolutely no redeeming qualities whatsoever.

Neither does the dollar, euro, yen pound etc.  It is a worthless piece of paper (a "fiat" currency).  It has value because we decided it has value.

Bitcoin is the same, it has value because people decided it has value.

E) The rules of what constitutes gold (79 protons, 118 neutrons) do not change or "fork"

Correct, and that is why I listed a fork as a risk.  Not all forks are bad.  The fork to "Bitcoin Cash" in August has been a huge success.  Others are not and some, like the sigWit2x was called off.

What is a fork?  The majority of owners and miners get together and re-write the program (the rules).   This video explains it.
http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-fork-explained-gold-segwit-segwit2x-cash-the-bit-3-2017-10

--------------

Why is this happening?  Why is bitcoin worth a quarter of trillion dollars?  Again, it represents the rejection of the status quo that screwed over the world in favor of the rich and powerful.  Remember the vast majority of its activity is outside the United States.  It is the search for an alternate financial system motivated by those that think the current financial system failed us in 2008.

The risk is we are seeing the birth of the next generation of currency, that will eventually replace the dollar.  If we do not participate, we are left behind.  The other risk is this all blows up and goes away and if we participate we lose everything.
« Last Edit: December 08, 2017, 06:27:17 PM by 1.21 Jigawatts »

jesmu84

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #74 on: December 08, 2017, 07:31:15 PM »
Jiga-

Isn't it possible that it's not this big populist backlash and is more just a way to pay for things (sometimes illegal activity) that is untraceable? That in itself would provide value