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Author Topic: Bitcoin  (Read 64893 times)

Hards Alumni

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #25 on: December 01, 2017, 09:22:50 AM »
I wasn't trying to be fair or unfair. I merely presented a fact and some reasonable advice for any investor.

Fact: It crashed nearly 20% yesterday.

Reasonable advice: Investors should be in tune with their risk tolerance before investing in bitcoin - or anything else.

Not sure how one could take issue with any of that.

Because it also got to that level a few days earlier.  Sure it was a fact, but I think the whole picture here matters a lot.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #26 on: December 01, 2017, 06:38:26 PM »
I wasn't trying to be fair or unfair. I merely presented a fact and some reasonable advice for any investor.

Fact: It crashed nearly 20% yesterday.

Reasonable advice: Investors should be in tune with their risk tolerance before investing in bitcoin - or anything else.

Not sure how one could take issue with any of that.

If 20% is a “crash” then that was the 7th this year, and the second in November.

And as I noted in the other thread bitcoin had separate 70%, 80% and 90% declines.  So it has also survived three collapses as well.

This is what your dealing with in bitcoin

MU82

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #27 on: December 01, 2017, 07:10:27 PM »
If 20% is a “crash” then that was the 7th this year, and the second in November.

And as I noted in the other thread bitcoin had separate 70%, 80% and 90% declines.  So it has also survived three collapses as well.

This is what your dealing with in bitcoin

For the second time this week, Smuggles, we agree on something posted here on Scoop! Wow!

It's practically time to hold hands and sing "We Are The World"!
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #28 on: December 03, 2017, 08:30:33 AM »
Bitcoin topped $11,600 this morning, a new All-time high.

Its last all-time high was Tuesday, “crashed” more than 20% that day as well, and back at a new high 5 days later.

Friday’s news that the CBOT and CBOE will list a futures contract on that will start trading on December 18th is considered a huge positive.  It gives it more legitimacy and makes a future ban even harder.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2017, 08:34:31 AM by 1.21 Jigawatts »

MU82

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #29 on: December 03, 2017, 09:04:00 AM »
Bitcoin topped $11,600 this morning, a new All-time high.

Its last all-time high was Tuesday, “crashed” more than 20% that day as well, and back at a new high 5 days later.

Friday’s news that the CBOT and CBOE will list a futures contract on that will start trading on December 18th is considered a huge positive.  It gives it more legitimacy and makes a future ban even harder.

So, Cramer, you're saying "BUY BUY BUY"?
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #30 on: December 03, 2017, 09:56:00 AM »
So, Cramer, you're saying "BUY BUY BUY"?

Yes, for now ... understanding you are buying into a risky bubble that has a non-trivial chance of going to zero.  If you accept those risks, then do it.

Tom Lee of stratfund advisors has a simple model that can explain nearly 100% of bitcoins price movements.  Everyday Coinbase, the site with 13 million accounts, publishes the number of accounts outstanding and the average trade size.  This has almost a perfect fit to bitcoin’s price.  To be clear, these statistics explain that day’s price movement.  Today’s statistics do not explain tomorrow’s price movement.

The point is their are no sellers of bitcoin, only buyers. It goes down when accounts that already own them sell.  It goes up in a parabolic fashion because accounts and money are pouring into Coinbase at a parabolic fashion.

What would get bitcoin to crash 70% to 90%, like it has in the past, is something that would make those 13 million accounts fear their money is a risk and rush to sell and close their accounts.  A government ban, (another) massive hack, or another “fork” top this list.

(Bitcoin ‘s rules and structure are decided by its community in a form of a democracy ... whatever the majority wants.  Their is big disagreement about what it’s structure should look like.  Every so often it’s gets redesigned or has a “fork.”  One of the biggest was a spin off into a new crypto-currency called “bitcoin cash” or BCH.  Its architecture makes it easier to use as cash.  BCH, again is separate from bitcoin or BTC, is over $1500 and soaring as well.)

With the approval of bitcoin futures on government regulated exchanges starting in 2 weeks, the possibility of a government ban just went way down.  They just blessed bitcoin!!  So that leaves a hack, a big fork, or a major systems failure as your major risk.

Without one of these events, there is no way to sell/short and no way for the price to decline.  Yes futures are going to be the first and only way to short bitcoin, but that is expected to be limited and small.  Futures are a net positive for bitcoin, the appearance of government acceptance is a far bigger positive than the negative of a way to short them. (Regarding government banning bitcoin, the Chinese government did just that in January.  That has not stopped the Chinese from continuing to trade it on “cold storage” exchanges.  Point is, like much of the internet, the government cannot control it and there are real questions if a ban can actual work.)

Surveys of bitcoin show the higher the price goes, the less people think it is a bubble.  This is why it’s parabolic nature is so important, or why some like me freely acknowledge it is a risky bubble and that is a good thing.  If the price continues to soar, and legitimate companies consider accepting it, Bitcoin can be the biggest disruption since the Internet itself.   For instance, if Amazon decides to except that as payment, it legitimatizes and thousands of retailers will follow suit.   The price could double or more on that news, in the US dollar would have some serious competition down the road.

In conclusion, what you’re seeing is the birth of something that can compete with the dollar and traditional banking.   All births are difficult, ugly and chaotic, as this one is too. And it still has a chance to be stillborn. But if it does take off and gain legitimacy, saying it is the biggest disruption since the Internet itself is an understatement.

« Last Edit: December 03, 2017, 10:04:47 AM by 1.21 Jigawatts »

forgetful

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #31 on: December 03, 2017, 11:10:51 AM »
Yes, for now ... understanding you are buying into a risky bubble that has a non-trivial chance of going to zero.  If you accept those risks, then do it.


Buying bitcoin is not investing, it is gambling, pure and simple and should be taxed as such.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #32 on: December 03, 2017, 11:35:39 AM »
Buying bitcoin is not investing, it is gambling, pure and simple and should be taxed as such.

It isn't gambling at all.  It is currency speculation.  Enormous difference.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #33 on: December 03, 2017, 11:59:00 AM »
It isn't gambling at all.  It is currency speculation.  Enormous difference.

+1

MU82

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #34 on: December 03, 2017, 10:12:01 PM »
Yes, for now ... understanding you are buying into a risky bubble that has a non-trivial chance of going to zero.  If you accept those risks, then do it.

Thanks for the advice and the interesting read, Smuggles.

I agree with you about the risks, and I am not comfortable with them. It's not my investing style.

I wish you and other speculators good fortune.
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

Hards Alumni

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #35 on: December 06, 2017, 08:47:48 PM »
Bitcoin crashed nearly 20% yesterday.

It's still up significantly this year, but yesterday is a classic example of the currency's volatility and the reason I repeat: "Investor, know thyself."

Almost 14k today

MU82

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #36 on: December 06, 2017, 09:48:39 PM »
Almost 14k today

If it goes to 100k tomorrow, I still won't go, "Damn, I shoulda got some." I know myself as an investor, and I don't do the speculative stuff. My tummy can't handle it.

I wish those who invest in bitcoin (and anything else) good fortune.
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

Hards Alumni

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #37 on: December 07, 2017, 05:36:14 AM »
If it goes to 100k tomorrow, I still won't go, "Damn, I shoulda got some." I know myself as an investor, and I don't do the speculative stuff. My tummy can't handle it.

I wish those who invest in bitcoin (and anything else) good fortune.

No, I totally get that, but if you have a couple of grand you can afford to 'lose'...

and now overnight its nearing 16k

MU82

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #38 on: December 07, 2017, 08:22:05 AM »
No, I totally get that, but if you have a couple of grand you can afford to 'lose'...

I often think of that, but I worry that it will lead to almost kind of a gambling addiction. I did dabble with all kinds of speculative stuff back in 2000 - about 11 seconds before the dot-com bust. That went well.

Plus, I have not 1 but 2 weddings to help pay for in 2018 so I don't have any thousands I can afford to lose right now. Both my daughter and my son are getting married. Not to each other, though. Despite our politics, NC isn't quite Kentucky ... yet!
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

jesmu84

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #39 on: December 07, 2017, 11:52:32 AM »
Would anyone here feel bad for profiting off of Bitcoin? The majority use of Bitcoin is nefarious/illegal.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #40 on: December 07, 2017, 12:13:46 PM »
Would anyone here feel bad for profiting off of Bitcoin? The majority use of Bitcoin is nefarious/illegal.

Not even close to being correct.

Price hit $20,000 today and the Gdax exchange (largest, most important) went down and all he’ll broke loose.

They are opening over 100,000 accounts a day and have seen a 10x increase in traffic since June.

Total size of bitcoin has topped $300 billion, more than $450 billion for all cryptos.

Futures trading starts Sunday night

Benny B

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #41 on: December 07, 2017, 01:45:37 PM »
Would anyone here feel bad for profiting off of Bitcoin? The majority use of Bitcoin is nefarious/illegal.

Good question.  I honestly cannot ignore everything else that's wrong with Bitcoin to even think objectively about whether any dark money behind bitcoin would have any influence on my decision.

But lets be clear... Jiggy might actually be right that the majority of Bitcoin is not nefarious/illegal, at least no longer.  Six months ago, sure; however, I'm guessing 99% of the black market, drug dealer, and human trafficking bitcoin was sold when it hit 10,000.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #42 on: December 07, 2017, 01:59:46 PM »
Would anyone here feel bad for profiting off of Bitcoin? The majority use of Bitcoin is nefarious/illegal.

Have you heard about what some people have done with the US$

Goose

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #43 on: December 07, 2017, 03:11:34 PM »
Two of my children are invested and I hope they make a bundle. They understand the risk and one of them sold out out initial investment and going along for the ride. I think if you have some cash that you can risk and can stomach the swings, swing for the fences. I believe it is going much, much higher and I mean much, much higher.

For the record, I am only an observer and likely will remain on the sidelines.

Juan Anderson's Mixtape

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #44 on: December 07, 2017, 03:43:59 PM »
I have my investing goals.  I have a plan to reach them and am right on track.  I do not need to be rich, just financially secure.  I do not have the time to be a day trader, which I think is the only way to profit on the wild swings in cryptocurrencies.

Good luck if you are in Bitcoin or any other cryptos.  They are not for me.  And I'm not even afraid that I'm missing out.

MU82

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #45 on: December 07, 2017, 04:31:06 PM »
Would anyone here feel bad for profiting off of Bitcoin? The majority use of Bitcoin is nefarious/illegal.

Nope.

I invest in tobacco stocks, companies that make bombs, alcohol stocks, companies that make products leading to obesity, major polluters (like oil companies and chemical companies), gun manufacturers, etc.

My job is to provide financial security for my family. If one invests in the stock market at all - and I'm including the index funds in most 401ks and IRAs - it is just about impossible to avoid investing in companies that avoid all moral and ethical dilemmas.

I don't invest in bitcoin for a variety of reasons; who uses bitcoin isn't one of them.
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #46 on: December 07, 2017, 07:23:19 PM »
If money laundering, they how about these guys?  Run by the same guy (Jamie Dimon) that said in September that bitcoin is a fraud, and index of money laundering and will blow up.

November 17, 2017
Swiss regulator finds JPMorgan broke money-laundering rules
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-jpmorgan-swiss/swiss-regulator-finds-jpmorgan-broke-money-laundering-rules-idUSKBN1DH1UC

Swiss financial markets authority FINMA has found that the Swiss subsidiary of U.S. investment bank JPMorgan (JPM.N) broke anti-money laundering rules, a Swiss court document showed.


Hards Alumni

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #47 on: December 07, 2017, 07:37:13 PM »
I have my investing goals.  I have a plan to reach them and am right on track.  I do not need to be rich, just financially secure.  I do not have the time to be a day trader, which I think is the only way to profit on the wild swings in cryptocurrencies.

Good luck if you are in Bitcoin or any other cryptos.  They are not for me.  And I'm not even afraid that I'm missing out.

You cannot day trade on Bitcoin.  Also, anyone with any sense is just holding their BTC... Or buying.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #48 on: December 07, 2017, 07:51:36 PM »
Oh yes you can day trade bitcoin!!  You can on Gdax, the largest and most important exchange, run by coinbase.

If you are not familiar with coinbase, today's New York Times had a fascinating profile of them (Coinbase runs Gdax, their institutional cryptocurrency exchange.  Coinbase is the retail exchange)

Coinbase: The Heart of the Bitcoin Frenzy
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/technology/coinbase-bitcoin.html?_r=0

In fact, most of the trading is day trading.  And like most day trading, very little of it is done by humans.  Gdax has a API (application programming interface) that you can connect your computer directly to the exchange.

If you know about this stuff, it is very easy.  You can run it from a laptop on a Starbucks connection (I'm guilty of exactly this)

https://github.com/topics/gdax-api


Herman Cain

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Re: Bitcoin
« Reply #49 on: December 07, 2017, 08:56:21 PM »
Happy for all the speculators doing well. I am enjoying it from the sidelines.  The US government will be collecting tax dollars from the trading profits. When peoples tax bills come due i, will be interesting to see the price action in response to liquidations.

In the meantime I am quietly depositing my US Dollar denominated dividend checks. 
Vote for Pedro