Bubble Watch

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Yea, our record vs the top 50 is huge at this point. That plus our KenPom ranking. Just out of curiosity, can anyone estimate what that would be with a loss vs Creighton?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Marquette - 18-11 (9-8)
       Remaining Schedule: vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
       Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, @ Xavier
       Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (30), RPI (58), Sagrin (30), BPI (29), SOR (47)
       Record vs. top 50: 6-6
       Record vs. top 100: 9-10


Lunardi's First Four Out:

Vandy - 16-14 (9-8)
     Remaining Schedule: vs.Florida, SEC Tourney
     Best 3 wins: @ Florida, vs. South Carolina, vs. Iowa State
     Worst 3 losses: @Alabama, vs. Tennesse, vs. Bucknell
     Computer Numbers: Kenpom (40), RPI (49), Sagrin (50), BPI (50), SOR (64)
     Record vs. top 50: 4-7
     Record vs. top 100: 9-13


Georgia Tech - 17-13 (8-9)
     Remaining Schedule: @ Cuse, ACC Tourney
     Best 3 wins: vs. UNC, vs. Fl State, @ VCU
     Worst 3 losses: vs. Ohio, vs. NC State, @ Penn State
     Computer Numbers: Kenpom (76), RPI (94), Sagrin (67), BPI (89), SOR (55)
     Record vs. top 50: 4-7
     Record vs. top 100: 6-11


Rhode Island - 20-9 (12-5)
       Remaining Schedule: vs. Davidson, A10 Tourney
       Best 3 wins: vs. Cinci, vs. VCU, vs. Belmont
       Worst 3 losses: vs. Fordham, vs. LaSalle, @ Richmond
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (49), RPI (44), Sagrin (52), BPI (37), SOR (57)
       Record vs. top 50: 2-3
       Record vs. top 100: 4-7

Kansas State 18-12 (7-10)
       Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas Tech, B12 Tourney
       Best Wins: @ Baylor, vs. WVU, @ OK State
       Worst Losses: @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, @ Tennessee
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (35), RPI (59), Sagrin (41), BPI (42), SOR (48)
       Record vs. top 50: 3-8
       Record vs. top 100: 5-11

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yea, our record vs the top 50 is huge at this point. That plus our KenPom ranking. Just out of curiosity, can anyone estimate what that would be with a loss vs Creighton?

62 is the current estimate with a loss on Saturday.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi

[Folks,,,]

.
.
.
Iowa State
Maryland
OK State
South Carolina
Miami
Dayton
Virginia Tech
Northwestern

That is 28 teams. 28 locks + 32 auto bids leaves 8 spots left on the bubble in this nightmare scenario for the bubble dwellers.  Here are the teams that are in contention for those spots ranked in current order on bracket matrix:

1. Michigan
2. VCU
3. Arkansas
4. Michigan state
5. Wichita State
6. Xavier
7. Northwestern
8. USC
9. Marquette
10. Seton Hall
11. Providence
12. Middle Tennessee
.
.
.

You have NW as a lock and a bubble team...other than that, great stuff.

[BM1090]

62 is the current estimate with a loss on Saturday.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi

And with 2 straight losses to Creighton (1 in NYC) we project to an RPI of 65. I think we're safe, guys.

The thing is, we might hover right around the bubble if we lose. But the distance between us and the teams currently "out" is pretty substantial.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

You have NW as a lock and a bubble team...other than that, great stuff.

Thanks for the catch.  Edited.  Aaaaandd, what'dya know, that slides up back to #8, the last team in the field, even with all those bids stolen. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yea, our record vs the top 50 is huge at this point.

Also worth noting that is with Georgia at 51.  They could end up inside the top 50, perhaps at the expense of Vandy or Seton Hall, or perhaps not.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Marquette - 18-11 (9-8)
       Remaining Schedule: vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
       Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, @ Xavier
       Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (30), RPI (58), Sagrin (30), BPI (29), SOR (47)
       Record vs. top 50: 6-6
       Record vs. top 100: 9-10

Next Four Out:

Georgia - 18-12 (9-8)
       Remaining Schedule:@ Arkansas, SEC Tourney
       Best 3 wins: vs. Vandy, vs. UNC Ashville, @ Ole Miss
       Worst 3 losses: @ Oakland, vs. Alabama, vs. Texas A&M
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (53), RPI (51), Sagrin (51), BPI (65), SOR (51)
       Record vs. top 50: 1-7
       Record vs. top 100: 9-11

Illinois 18-12 (8-9)
       Remaining Schedule: @Rutgers, B10 Tourney
       Best Wins: vs.VCU, vs. Michigan State, @Northwestern
       Worst Losses: vs. Penn State, @ Penn State, @ Indiana
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (66), RPI (56), Sagrin (64), BPI (62), SOR (52)
       Record vs. top 50: 5-8
       Record vs. top 100: 11-12

Houston 20-8 (11-5)
       Remaining Schedule: @ Cincy, vs. Eastern Carolina, AAC Tourney
       Best Wins: vs. Rhode Island, vs. Vermont, vs. UCF
       Worst Losses: @ LSU, vs. Harvard, vs. Memphis
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (39), RPI (53), Sagrin (46), BPI (34), SOR (61)
       Record vs. top 50: 2-4
       Record vs. top 100: 3-5

Clemson 15-14 (5-12)
       Remaining Schedule: vs. BC, ACC Tourney
       Best Wins: @ South Carolina, vs, UNC Wilmington, @ Wake Forest
       Worst Losses: vs. Oklahoma, @ Georgia Tech, vs. Syracuse
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (37), RPI (61), Sagrin (42), BPI (36), SOR (54)
       Record vs. top 50: 4-11
       Record vs. top 100: 9-13


Others to keep an eye on:

Illinois State 25-5 (17-1)
       Remaining Schedule: MVC Tourney
       Best Wins: vs. Wichita St., vs. New Mexico, Vs. Tulsa
       Worst Losses: @ Murray State, @ Tulsa, vs. San Francisco
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (44), RPI (32), Sagrin (54), BPI (57), SOR (38)
       Record vs. top 50: 1-1 (Wichita - who they also lost to by 41)
       Record vs. top 100: 2-3

TCU 17-13 (6-11)
       Remaining Schedule: @ Oklahoma
       Best Wins: vs. Illinois State, vs. Iowa State, @ Kansas Sate
       Worst Losses: @ Texas Tech, vs. Auburn, @ Iowa State
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (43), RPI (68), Sagrin (47), BPI (53), SOR (56)
       Record vs. top 50: 2-10
       Record vs. top 100: 4-12

Syracuse 17-13 (9-8)
      Remaining Schedule: @ Georgia Tech
       Best Wins: vs. Florida State, vs. Duke, vs. Virginia
       Worst Losses: @ Boston College, vs. St. Johns, vs. UCONN
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (52), RPI (79), Sagrin (40), BPI (33), SOR (53)
       Record vs. top 50: 6-7
       Record vs. top 100: 8-10

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

My sister is a Freshman at Illinois St. would be a fun matchup if they met in the tournament for somehow.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

In other news, the 14-4 Liberty Fightin' John Dawson's go down to the 8-10 Radford Highlanders in the Big South tournament. 

Was Dawson not able to get a red shirt? Played 4 minutes for Marquette his sophomore year.  Listed as a senior. 

[Oldgym]

In other news, the 14-4 Liberty Fightin' John Dawson's go down to the 8-10 Radford Highlanders in the Big South tournament. 

Was Dawson not able to get a red shirt? Played 4 minutes for Marquette his sophomore year.  Listed as a senior.

Saw the last minute or two.  Announcers referred to Dawson as a "redshirt senior" two or three times.

[GGGG]

In other news, the 14-4 Liberty Fightin' John Dawson's go down to the 8-10 Radford Highlanders in the Big South tournament. 

Was Dawson not able to get a red shirt? Played 4 minutes for Marquette his sophomore year.  Listed as a senior. 

The NCAA ruled against him.  I think the appeal might still be pending?  If not, his career is done.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The NCAA ruled against him.  I think the appeal might still be pending?  If not, his career is done.

That is what I thought, but seems like such a drag for the NCAA to not give the kid a waiver over 4 minutes. 

[BM1090]

In other news, the 14-4 Liberty Fightin' John Dawson's go down to the 8-10 Radford Highlanders in the Big South tournament. 

Was Dawson not able to get a red shirt? Played 4 minutes for Marquette his sophomore year.  Listed as a senior.

Wow, UNC-A lost the first game. 2 games, 2 of the top 3 seeds eliminated. Winthrop is a 1 seed playing the tournament at home...talk about a bracket opening up....

[GGGG]

That is what I thought, but seems like such a drag for the NCAA to not give the kid a waiver over 4 minutes. 

Sandy had 19 this year.  Is that significant?  I understand the NCAA's point of view.  If you say 4 is OK, but 19 isn't, where do you draw that line?

Better idea.  Don't transfer mid-season.  He has no one to blame but himself for blowing an entire year of eligibility on four minutes.  Stick around and you might get to play more.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Sandy had 19 this year.  Is that significant?  I understand the NCAA's point of view.  If you say 4 is OK, but 19 isn't, where do you draw that line?

Better idea.  Don't transfer mid-season.  He has no one to blame but himself for blowing an entire year of eligibility on four minutes.  Stick around and you might get to play more.

Touche.

[GooooMarquette]

Sandy had 19 this year.  Is that significant?  I understand the NCAA's point of view.  If you say 4 is OK, but 19 isn't, where do you draw that line?

Better idea.  Don't transfer mid-season.  He has no one to blame but himself for blowing an entire year of eligibility on four minutes.  Stick around and you might get to play more.

Agree.  Mid-season transfers just don't make sense, and it's a slippery slope if you start granting exemptions based on number of minutes played.  Maybe if it's a family emergency to get closer to home, but that clearly wasn't the case with Dawson.

[bradley center bat]

Wow, UNC-A lost the first game. 2 games, 2 of the top 3 seeds eliminated. Winthrop is a 1 seed playing the tournament at home...talk about a bracket opening up....

I watch some at work. Player for Campbell had 51 points in beating UNCA!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Houston gets smoked by Cinci. They're toast.

Middle Tennessee neck and neck with FIU w 10 to go.

[jsglow]

Okay JJJJJ, do I need to cheer for Wisconsin in their game against Iowa?  That would be sooo painful.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Okay JJJJJ, do I need to cheer for Wisconsin in their game against Iowa?  That would be sooo painful.

Meh. Doesn't hurt, but it doesn't make much difference one way or the other. A win for Wisco may bump our RPI a tiny bit. Iowa isn't getting an at large.

[jsglow]

Meh. Doesn't hurt, but it doesn't make much difference one way or the other. A win for Wisco may bump our RPI a tiny bit. Iowa isn't getting an at large.

That's what I wanted clarification on.  Thanks.  Go Hawkeyes!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Can You provide your most up to date bubble analysis. Thanks.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=53736.0

[Herman Cain]

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=53736.0

Thanks

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Middle Tennessee escapes with a 3 point home win against an awful FIU team.

At this point I fully expect MTSU to get an at large if they win their final conference game but lose in the CUSA tourney, but man, I don't know if they should.