Bubble Watch

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tonight's bubble action:

Houston @ Cinci (Huge game for Houston.  If they don't win, I think their at large hopes are dead)


Florida Int. @ Middle Tennessee (Fl Int is awful, so MTSU should win easily, but if not, this would be a dagger)

Cal @ Utah (Go Utah!)

UT Arlington @ Louisiana Monroe (UT Arlington isn't getting an at large, but they're mildly interesting)

That is about it for tonight.

[Windyplayer]

Still last four in in Palm's bracket...after a road win against a top 30 RPI team. Cool, Jerry, Cool.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Still last four in in Palm's bracket...after a road win against a top 30 RPI team. Cool, Jerry, Cool.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

I disregarded that bracket as soon as I saw he had Illinois in there.

[Windyplayer]

#9 seed against MSU in USA Today bracket. Date with UNC in second round.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2017/03/02/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-college-basketball-march-madness-bubble/98626374/

Interesting that Palm continues to go against the grain here. More interesting that I continue to be bothered by it.

[mu03eng]

I'm not happy about Northwestern mostly because of the outsized coverage it'll get since half the sports media are J school grads from there(other half are Cuse grads). Yeah it's a big deal but no bigger than if Rutgers actually made it at some point in time this century.

[We R Final Four]

Not everyone.

[Herman Cain]

I can't think of or name a single recruit in recent memory that was discerning between MU and Northwestern.  I just don't see it...

Gabe Levin  who went with us. We offered Aaron  Falzone ,who went with them . Jordan Nwora had us and NU in his pared down list before he blew up and went to Louisville. Etc.

Lot of recruits will do their unofficial sat NU and MU in consecutive days . Etc.

[MU_Beav]

Sacar Anim.

[mu03eng]

Gabe Levin  who went with us. We offered Aaron  Falzone ,who went with them . Jordan Nwora had us and NU in his pared down list before he blew up and went to Louisville. Etc.

Lot of recruits will do their unofficial sat NU and MU in consecutive days . Etc.

Bottom line, if we lose a recruit to NW, I have zero issue with it.

[SaveOD238]

Lot of recruits will do their unofficial sat NU and MU in consecutive days . Etc.

I did this!  Spring Break, 2006. 

I don't remember much, but my tour at NU was a huge crowd of like 10 families.  At MU it was me and one other girl (plus parents). The personal touch was part of what sold me on Marquette.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Win creighton and move up to the 10 seed.

Lose creighton and play in Dayton.

That's not how the bubble works

[Herman Cain]

That's not how the bubble works

Can You provide your most up to date bubble analysis. Thanks.

[MUMountin]

Thursday's Bracket Matrix update:  http://bracketmatrix.com/

Marquette is in every bracket released today, and moves back ahead of Providence and Seton Hall as the last 10 seed.  High seed is a 7.

Xavier is starting to get dropped, and will probably fall below us in a few days as the results of last night's game gets priced in. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Can You provide your most up to date bubble analysis. Thanks.

I'm working on something analyzing the bubble should we have a bunch of stolen bids.  I should have it done at some point this afternoon. 

[fjm]

I'm working on something analyzing the bubble should we have a bunch of stolen bids.  I should have it done at some point this afternoon.

You sir have done the work of a thousand Rowsey's to put together this bubble watch. Keep up the strong work!

[MU82]

Everyone in the country would want NW to win

Good.

We'd get a ton of pub after we kick their purple arses.

Methinks this simply was arranged this way by this particular analyst to create a Wojo-Collins matchup, however. The committee doesn't usually arrange stuff like that.

[GooooMarquette]

Methinks this simply was arranged this way by this particular analyst to create a Wojo-Collins matchup, however. The committee doesn't usually arrange stuff like that.

I think they consider it more than they admit.  There have been quite a number of "coaching relationship" matchups in the first round.  Two that come quickly to mind are TC/Ralph Willard in '03 and TC/Tom Izzo in '07.

[Windyplayer]

Good.

We'd get a ton of pub after we kick their purple arses.

Methinks this simply was arranged this way by this particular analyst to create a Wojo-Collins matchup, however. The committee doesn't usually arrange stuff like that.

Joey gets props for accuracy of field not match-ups; might as well have fun with the latter.

[PGsHeroes32]

Everyone in the country would want NW to win

Who cares.

We'd fucking smash northwestern.

Please give me that

[MU82]

Who cares.

We'd unnatural carnal knowledgeing smash northwestern.

Please give me that

I agree.

I also think Northwestern fans are saying the same thing about the prospects of playing us.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I apologize for the long post here, but I am going to do a exercise to see what the bubble looks like in a nightmare scenario where bids are stolen left and right.   

Favorites for the AQ (32 Teams):

Villanova - Big East
Kansas - B12
UNC - ACC
Oregon - P12
Kentucky - SEC
Purdue - Big Ten
Cincinnati - American
Dayton - A10
Wichita State - MVC
Middle Tennesee - CUSA
UNC Wilmington - Colonial
Nevada - MWC
Texas Arlington - Sun Belt
Monmouth - Metro Atlantic
Vermont - American East
Princeton - Ivy
Valpo - Horizon
Akron - MAC
Belmont - Ohio Valley
E. Tennessee State - Southern
Bucknell - Patriot
Winthrop - Big South
CSU Bakersfield - WAC
Florida Gulf Coast - A Sun
South Dakota - Summit
North Dakota - Big Sky
New Orleans - Southland
Texas Southern - SWAC
North Carolina Centeral - Mideastern
UC Irvine - Big West
Mount St. Mary's - Northeast

I have bolded the conferences that I believe are the most likely to have bid stealers - American, A10, Conference USA and the MVC.  Now let's select four teams that don't have a chance for an at large to win those tournaments and steal some bids. 

UCONN - American
Richmond - A10
Louisiana Tech - CUSA
Northern Iowa - MVC

I have initialized the conferences that have a team that the committee may consider if they win out until their conference championship and lose - (UNC Wilmington - Colonial;  Nevada - MWC; and Texas Arlington - Sun Belt).  These teams are long shots at best, but may receive some at large consideration. Now let's assume a different team wins each of those conference tournaments, putting UNC Wilmington, Nevada and Texas Arlington into the at large pool.

College of Charleston - Colonial
San Diego State - MWC
Arkansas State - Sun Belt

Now let's assume that 1/3 of the P6 conference tournaments are won by a team that wouldn't get an at large. Let's go with:

Tennessee - SEC
Indiana - Big 10

So that is a total of 9 potential bids stolen (3 of which from conferences that are EXTREMELY UNLIKELY to receive 2 bids). This is a worst case scenario that is not going to happen.  I see 4 or 5 as the absolute max. 

Now let's go through the 36 at large bids and see how many teams are truly a lock:

Gonzaga
Louisville
Baylor
Kentucky
UCLA
Arizona
Butler
Florida
Florida State
Duke
West Virginia
Purdue
Virginia
Notre Dame
Cincinnati
Minnesota
SMU
Creighton
Wisconsin
St. Mary's
Iowa State
Maryland
OK State
South Carolina
Miami
Dayton
Virginia Tech
Northwestern

That is 28 teams. 28 locks + 32 auto bids leaves 8 spots left on the bubble in this nightmare scenario for the bubble dwellers.  Here are the teams that are in contention for those spots ranked in current order on bracket matrix:

1. Michigan
2. VCU
3. Arkansas
4. Michigan state
5. Wichita State
6. Xavier
7. USC
8. Marquette
9. Seton Hall
10. Providence
11. Middle Tennessee
12. Syracuse
13. California
14. Illinois State
15. Rhode Island
16. Vandy
17. Wake Forest
18. Illinois
19. K State
20. Houston
21. TCU
22. Georgia Tech
23. Clemson

Others hoping to be considered:
UNC Wilmington
Nevada
Texas Arlington
Utah
Texas Tech
Ohio State
Alabama
Ole Miss
BYU

Conclusion:

Even if the world turns upside down and nearly everything that can go wrong for bubble teams does go wrong, and Marquette finishes 0-2, they're still right there for a berth in the First Four.  There are only a few teams listed behind Marquette that I could see the committee putting in before MU (Providence, maybe Middle Tennessee, Syracuse maybe?).  After that...I just can't see it.  I also think the committee is going to have a hard time selecting USC and Xavier in front of Marquette at this point, and they are currently seeded 1 slot ahead and 3 slots ahead, on Bracketmatrix.     

So while it is theoretically possible for Marquette to not receive a bid, it would take a crazy set of circumstances, and even then, they still look to be above the cut line, if only just barely.  A win on Saturday would certainly erase any possible scenario.

That said, I am sticking with what I said last night.  This team is dancing.  Book it.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I agree.

I also think Northwestern fans are saying the same thing about the prospects of playing us.

Thats because MU and NU are almost the exact same team. We have a very similar makeup in skill set and personel.

[PGsHeroes32]

I agree.

I also think Northwestern fans are saying the same thing about the prospects of playing us.

They definitely could be. But that'd be foolish.

Unless you have a clear edge(in this case abusing size and length vs us) the last team you want to see is a team that can bomb from 3.

I also like lunardis st Mary's matchup. Let Londale get his.

[Sharpie]

Good.

We'd get a ton of pub after we kick their purple arses.

Methinks this simply was arranged this way by this particular analyst to create a Wojo-Collins matchup, however. The committee doesn't usually arrange stuff like that.

I most certainly think that the committee creates intriguing matchups if possible. They may not publicize it but they would be stupid not to. It gives analysts and talking heads more to go on and more and more hype for the tournament. Which in turn brings more eyes and ears to the tv. Just my two cents.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Marquette - 18-11 (9-8)
       Remaining Schedule: vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
       Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, @ Xavier
       Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (30), RPI (58), Sagrin (30), BPI (29), SOR (47)
       Record vs. top 50: 6-6
       Record vs. top 100: 9-10


Lunardi's Last Four in:

Xavier - 18-12 (8-9)
       Remaining Schedule: @ Depaul, BE Tourney
       Best Wins: @ Creighton, vs, Wake, vs, Seton Hall
       Worst Losses: @ Colorado, vs. Marquette, @ Marquette
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (48), RPI (35), Sagrin (34), BPI (40), SOR (37)
       Record vs. top 50: 3-8
       Record vs. top 100: 8-11

Cal - 19-9 (10-6)
       Remaining Schedule: @Utah, @Colorado, P12 Tournament
       Best Wins: @USC, cs. Princeton, vs, Stanford
       Worst Losses: vs. San Diego State, @ Stanford, vs. Seton Hall
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (46), RPI (52), Sagrin (44), BPI (46), SOR (63)
       Record vs. top 50: 1-7
       Record vs. top 100: 4-8

USC - 22-8 (9-8)
      Remaining Schedule: vs.Wash, P12 Tourney
      Best 3 wins: vs.UCLA, vs. SMU, vs. BYE
      Worst 3 losses: @Arizona State, @Utah, vs. Cal
      Computer Numbers: Kenpom (65), RPI (39), Sagrin (57), BPI (61), SOR (41)
      Record vs. top 50: 2-5
      Record vs top 100: 5-7

Wake Forest - 17-12 (8-9)
      Remaining Schedule: @ Virginia Tech, ACC Tourney
      Best 3 wins: vs. Louisville, vs. Miami, vs. Pitt
      Worst 3 losses: @ Cuse, @ Clemson, vs. Clemson
      Computer Numbers: Kenpom (31), RPI (40), Sagrin (35), BPI (30), SOR (36)
      Record vs. top 50: 2-9
      Record vs top 100: 7-12